Lurker > Lopen

When did you use the healing salve, on who, and why

Like here's the problem

Red thinks I'm an idiot because he's red
Poppy thinks I'm an idiot because he's defensive about pursuing a very legitimate lead
Sbell is paranoid of me

MZero is the only one with an open mind in this situation

I just really need to know that we lynch Ulti tomorrow before I die. I would like the opportunity to go into more detail that Ulti is scum if needed while I'm still alive.

Poppy you can answer those questions too.

Like we all need to be on the same wavelength here

When I get lynched and I flip Rizzrakk the psychic, are we all lynching Ulti or not? And if not, why not. I need, while I'm here, to convince you guys that one of the following must be true.

1. Roshan is a red herring, doesn't exist, and Ulti is the last scum.
2. Roshan exists, and Ulti is the last scum, so lynching the last scum and letting Roshan win is better than scum winning with overpowered Death Miller.

Hypothetical SBell

I flip psychic
Someone is killed
The game continues

Who do you lynch tomorrow.

Actually you know what

First and foremost

I am lynched, the game continues, it is as I said. I flip psychic.

How do you approach tomorrow. At that point, if there are two scum, you know the game is over, right. So there can only be one scum. Therefore, I have to be correct, right?

Like step one is ruling out that I could be Roshan. Then once we've determined I am scum, we need to determine which scum pairings make sense for me.

So why do I fakeclaim Psychic as Roshan.

Like you're not going to let me just tell you how this game is, that much is clear.

So walk me through your thought process here and I'll try and tell you why certain things don't work.

Outline the possible setups if I'm scum or if I'm telling the truth.

So what, is Poppy my scummate SBell? I'm just trying to figure out where your head is.

I do think you learning your upgrade potentially helps solve, if you do want to do that.

If it's low power as everyone but Ctes (scum), Ulti (scum), and Chang's (exists to catch death miller watcher, mostly) have been, it casts more suspicion on Ulti's existing.

You can visit the store just for the heck of it and buy nothing

It does take your day action though, so be sure you don't want to pass shovels to anyone

If everyone is okay with the idea of accepting that I am right about scum death miller watcher when I flip, we don't really need to dig him up

You know what also makes this setup so clever

Miller thief and miller decoy are both roles you could spin as natively scum roles. Miller watcher being the actual scum role of the three is almost irrelevant in the endgame as long as you infer that (I am obviously not saying anyone but Ctes is the death miller) one of the millers is a death miller so town doesn't eat itself thinking there are 2 scum left when there is in fact 1.

Ulti give MZero Red or Poppy your ward and your health salve

Ulti trying to say I'm bad at mafia is a scumtell too btw.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Since when am I the only power role?

You are factually not even reading the game.

Who is the other power role with a power that isn't junk.

How does it work as a bodyguard though

Pudge hooks them away-- it doesn't put him in the fray. He wouldn't die for this.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Red. He was under the radar all game so I thought for sure he was getting killed, since he's the biggest name left.

Him being alive means he's our most likely Roshan. But we mathematically can't lynch him until tomorrow with a potential 10/4/1 setup.

Also how on earth is Red a bg target that makes sense last night?

The other thing about Ulti is this

He claims his role upgrades to jailer. That's a super strong shard upgrade for the only power role in the game.

I'm also not even sure it makes sense thematically for Pudge to be bodyguard, much less jailer

Ulti currently claims he has a salve too

I suggest that Ulti pass his Salve and his Vision ward to poppy or red or MZero, whichever makes the most sense to town.

I guarantee you he can't pass both because at least one of the items is a lie.

Ok. Well I just solved it for you. He's town.

Obellisk posted...

You have had multiple day and night actions to visit the store and find out your shard upgrade. 6 opportunities i believe. And you've done absolutely nothing all game?

Who cares

I don't believe Poppy could blindly make that claim without more of our claims/flips on the table. He's town.

Also listen. I made lots of arguments against Ulti that don't center around Corrik's scan. He has done the following this game

1. Claimed his role/item "verified Lea as town" when he frankly never needed to.
2. Claimed his role/item was at odds with Kirby's, then walked it back, trying to confirm himself because he and Kirby both have wards.
3. His claimed item makes no sense, it has no function. One time per game you can see if you're visited by only invisible units? Someone should ask Ulti to pass them his vision ward-- I bet he can't do it because he doesn't have one.
4. He claimed bodyguard when there was no benefit to town to do so, super early.
5. He flipped from calling hb obv town at the end of day 1 to scum on day 2. There is no reason for his logic to have flipped.
6. He took forever to actually vote Sultan but had a ton of bluster while doing so, trying to make it seem like he got him lynched even though he just parroted a bunch of stuff I said.
7. He kept waffling on lynching ctes yesterday, having doubts ctes was scum. He humored we might BOTH BE TOWN??? WHAT.

Even ignoring the fact that a bodyguard makes no sense in this setup if we assume ctes is death miller watcher and that Corrik targeted Thanos in the endgame, he has had ample scummy acts to his name.

Pass it to me

Have Ulti Hammer me in case it makes me a bomb.

And I want to stress

I had 1 visitor last night.

There is 0 chance my role does not function properly. This is the argument Ulti will try to spin to avoid being lynched.

I also read the wording carefully on Ctes's flip and my role. His role says "visit them, place a ward" and my role says it tells me how many visitors I get. Consistent wording, no chance for misreading or him being untraceable by my ability somehow.

And you ask.

Why is it important to know Ctes is Death Miller?

Because it makes Ulti's BG claim look worse and he is absolutely the last scum. If basically the only conventional town power role that provides useful function is bodyguard, doesn't "no power aside from a suicidal cop" make a lot more sense?

So I'm willing to be lynched today. I'm at peace with it now.

It's gotta be 11/4. This Death Miller is just too clever for the rest of the setup to be so haphazard.

Just please, when I flip psychic, realize I was right about Death Miller, and realize that Corrik targeted Ulti, and lynch him. But Poppy give your shovel to red please. And you and red dig at Ctes's grave.

Or you could both buy the 200 g potential healing thing and all heal each other too and just give me the benefit of a doubt when I flip that death miller exists.

You know I actually think you might be right

Roshan is just a device to sow paranoia. Corrik's role implying Roshan exists doesn't mean crap when you've got death millers in the setup. This many extra kills is way more balanced if it's 11/4 and not 10/4/1. SBell's role could actually exist as a "roshan miller" in that sense.

Now that being said n1 extra kill being available to scum, Roshan existing or not, is still a bad setup that I don't think gets off the floor. Logic is the same. It's not good setup math.

Start of game 11/4
Town mislynch - 10/4
Scum shot - 9/4
Roshan hater targets scum - 8/4
Scum EK - 7/4

So then

Town mislynch - 6/4
Scum shot - 5/4

Okay it's not literally impossible like it was because day 2 lylo is impossible, but Corrik played really scummy day 1. I do not think he makes sense as a scum EK. At all.

That would be funny. It would actually be a better setup.

If there's no Roshan we've got this in the bag if you kill Ulti that's the last scum.

And keep in mind, scum team NEEDS the death miller watcher to give the illusion of power in the setup beyond overpowered looking scum flips, because town team is very low power, otherwise late game it becomes obvious "every normal role is lying" and scum traps themselves with a bunch of claims like Bodyguard. This is boring. Super boring.

The problem with this setup is too many extra kills and ambiguous items. The Death Miller is fine though.

Like I have no ill will towards Isquen

This is not on him

This is a setup where you can figure out that it's Death Miller.

The miller element becomes suspicious when three millers exist
The watcher element becomes suspicious when you have an extra watcher in the setup on upgrade and you have limited night actions to actually watch, and basically everyone town has a worthless role
Watchers are also very hard to fake by definition because you have to have logical watch choices without actually catching scum with any of them

This is legitimately a clever use of the role. It's not a role that you should ban. I mean you should ban it, because board 8 is not good enough at mafia to figure it out, but it's actually really cool in this setup. I would not support banning Isquen from hosting. At all.

Like yes

It's cool to just wring your wrists and say... well, Death Miller, there was nothing we could do.

But what if we beat a Death Miller. Isn't that better? If I'm scum it's 3/2/1 and town can't win anyway.

Let's throw a hail mary for town, and kill Ulti.

And here's the thing

As Roshan, I never blind claim psychic, because that claim cannot live.
As scum, I never blind claim psychic, because literally any power role in the game contradicts me and I go 1 for 1 at best. If two contradict me I go 0 for 1. We also have a Kirby that can potentially confirm me by giving me 0, 1, or 2 targets basically on his own. Despite Hb I do think I was not a likely lynch yesterday. Ironically I think Ctes gets lynched even if he didn't contradict my psychic claim because of Chang's shard.
Keep in mind, I pushed for mass-- why? Because as town psychic, I knew my ability was useful to catch contradictions, and a 4 player mass involving every suspicious player in the game sounded perfect.

That's how you have to solve the game. Ignore stupid crap about "a role madness game can't have banned roles" and "the game needs protection" and boil it down to motivations and town and scum.

UltimaterializerX posted...
I have to ask in case I die - is there any possible world where ctes and Lopen are both town?

This was late last topic. Reposting for emphasis

This is scum letting it slip they know they have a death miller

A town member NEVER humors that the interaction of me and ctes is town/town. That is impossible.

Also I'd argue scum has made no attempt to kill Roshan whatsoever. Probably because we have yet to not lynch scum this game. It's not to their benefit to third party hunt when they're dropping like flies.

Okay well if it's not you it's red (I do not think Poppy could fake his claim in this setup) so figure the game out. We can still win.

Either way it's not Ulti so my plea still works. If I die today lynch Ulti. It's my dying request.

Btw please town lynch Ulti when I flip. Scum shouldn't win with that busted ass role. Let Roshan win.

Like listen Roshan

Either I'm scum, or there's one scum left because Ctes was scum

For you, you're gold. You got this.

Obellisk posted...

I'm enjoying poking holes in everything Lopen argues.

Earlier in the game you said "scum tends to make perfect arguments"

Now when I can't make a perfect argument (because how the hell am I supposed to explain why I saw no visitors if hes not Death Miller) I'm scum

I don't even know why I'm discussing this with Roshan anyway. I guess you need to be sure I'm scum since you'd win a 2/1/1.

I know ctes is lying about his watches

I think any redirector would be seen by me. I think the odds of a redirection hitting the one guy who it mattered to be use on twice is awful too.

I also think ctes played the game like death miller watcher more than a town.

Setup makes a lot more sense if there are no power roles in the setup at all. Hence why Ulti bodyguard claim is definitely fake. Hence why we need to believe ctes is fake otherwise Ulti wins because "herp game needs protection."

So listen, I know you don't believe my opening post

But my mindset going into today was that I could be mislynched and the key was to confirm that ctes was in fact scum and the day could be won the next day. That's why I needed to hand out 2+ shovels. Poppy can use his day action to give someone else a shovel. (Probably red so Mzero can buy, but I leave it up to him)

I figured Roshan would have a day kill on even numbered days. I did not think Roshan would kill tonight

I still think him as full SK is worse setup than Death Miller Watcher and that Corrik had to have killed himself.

Some sort of item that changes your identity when you flip if held

I imagine if we take it from him he'll revert post mortem. If not, the item can be passed from who digs it up to another town to confirm the item exists

That's the only use I can see to the shovel, to solve the game mystery in this scenario. Our items are pretty bad

If I get lynched I don't get a journal entry

Also I don't know how a journal entry gives me any more cred than my flip does

Just didn't seem useful

Like someone is free to use the shard on me tonight so I can journal. I wouldn't be able to afford it without surviving today though

Like if you people are humoring I fake claim psychic because a death Miller can't exist why can't I be a death psychic that has a journal entry ability.

And what's to stop people

The key is irrefutable proof he's death Miller so the game can be solved. My journal entry doesn't do that. Digging up his body potentially does.

(Also I can't afford a shard)

Obellisk posted...

And instead of purchasing a Shard Upgrade to leave a journal entry after your almost guaranteed mislynch because of ctes's death miller flip, you chose shovels...

Because I don't think a journal entry fixes the problem.

My shard upgrade lets me write a journal entry that reveals with the start of day. 200 words or less. Reveals even if I die.

If it's 2 scum + rosh town can't win
If I'm a solo anti-town the claim was suicide

Just venting on the state of mafia

It's annoying I almost modkilled myself due to "unfair" roles, thought better of it, and the game is basically choosing to do that rather than analyze game actions

I think the co-host saw all those ways to guess the Miller Watcher is fake

This community would rather take the cop out and blame the host rather than be forced to analyze play though