Board 8 > Dota 2 Mafia 2 Topic 8 - Lakad matataaaag (Normalin, normalin)

(+) Yeah! (+)

honestly I could make sense of a scum hammerer. but a 3rd party hammerer sk seems rough.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I'm safe in assuming me/Stu/Red/Ninja are all killing Lopen today, correct? I don't have to worry about anything stupid happening when I'm at work tomorrow? Because I need to go to sleep early. I am mentally and physically just done right now.

shy of Mzero walking in, pulling off a mask and saying he's Town All knowing prophet and has a full player list and their roles, I'd say lopen is dead.

And now I'm off to bed.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I can't think of many other reasons Red can magically vote, but who knows. Take the confirmed scum lynch and go from there.

It was a shard upgrade.

So anyway, I think we need for my theory to work to start with why I was so sure Ctes was scum and that my role wasn't defective (I know that now, but before my result of 1 last night which was received just before the day went up) or redirected in some way (scum redirector was possible, but I think they'd need to target me anyway).

The first is just examining Ctes's play up until the fake claim. I said it yesterday, but it still applies. He didn't play the game like a watcher. He played the game like a scum who planned to fakeclaim miller watcher. Sitting on the fact that he's miller in the face of two miller claims, His choice of watcher targets doesn't make sense either. In fact there is a particularly damning post from MZero yesterday against him as he tries to justify his watches.

MZero posted...

I also don't feel like watching Lopen from a Town perspective N2 makes sense, but it does from a scum perspective. N1 would have been trying to catch protection, N2 trying to catch a scanning role. Also, poison on a town role when I'm basically poison doctor is weird.

Note I don't think he actually was watcher, but it kinda makes sense that

The second is setup. We are given a lot of hints that perhaps a miller watcher is out of place. The fact that Chang can upgrade into a town watcher is a big one. The fact that there are 3 millers is another. The other hint is there are no particularly useful power roles in the game.

Now if we were all vanilla or had junky roles, that would make any scum fakeclaim that has a non-, power role completely exposed in a mass claim/late game situation where town figures out we're all crap unless town figures out that the miller watcher is in fact not a watcher. So for proper balance, you almost need scum to have a tool to fake a power role flip unless you tell them it's an all vanilla game (which is kinda boring, it's more exciting if they need to figure it out too)

Lopen posted...

Note I don't think he actually was watcher, but it kinda makes sense that

But it kinda makes sense that he wouldn't have a good reason to scan me as town, but could as scum. He also may have been legitimately ninja watcher when/if we see his real flip so there is that to consider.

Lopen posted...

But it kinda makes sense that he wouldn't have a good reason to scan me as town, but could as scum. He also may have been legitimately ninja watcher when/if we see his real flip so there is that to consider.

This doesn't make your banned argument make any more sense.

So then there's also Ctes's play yesterday. Look at how much he hammed up that he was town blah blah blah.

Would an actual town miller watcher be so concerned with this? It's a 1 for 1 when town is up, you caught a scum good deal, accept your death. His reaction to being lynched is absurd too-- like town has never been lynched due to a scum fakeclaim, comparing it to the worst mislynches of all time. I have no idea why he'd do this so much unless it was imperative that town believe he was actually town and not consider the use of a doppelgangerlike role.

Lopen this is literally the worst.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I have to ask in case I die - is there any possible world where ctes and Lopen are both town?

This is another thing here

This to me is a slip

In what possible world do you humor we are both town. This feels like a player who wants to put the seeds for being legitimately shocked later when scum ctes shows as tracker and Lopen is mislynched "OOPS SORRY GUYS"

Listen red

I know you're not going to believe this because "this role is banned" whatever. Even though the host said "no complaining about the setup"

And man I get it. I came THIS CLOSE to modkilling myself when I saw that flip. But it felt like poor form. And then I started to think about it, and man, I thought the game setup was actually kinda clever. We've got hints that the watcher isn't real through a lot of setup clues, and an item that lets us dig up the truth. It's kinda cool actually. Like if you have to have a doppelganger in the setup this is the way to do it.

And like I know, to you no amount of rationalizing will work it, but can you at least humor me and find my scummate and lynch them. Me being Roshan makes literally no sense. And then tonight, we will use our shovels and dig up Ctes. We have 3, so even if one of us gets killed we will dig it up.

This is literally the worst conspiracy to ever conspiracy. At least for mafia.

And red

You were one of the people who saw some logic to following corrik's hint, that corrik is not the type to not leave a hint

He didn't hint me, Sbell, or MZero. That much is very obvious.
He probably didn't hint Poppy due to Kirby's argument about him not lynching scum. I think that has real weight.
He hinted Thanos. Thanos, the one person claiming a legitimate conventional power role that isn't being argued to be a fake flip. The one person who has been begging town to confirm him, all game. The person who fakeclaimed for literally no reason on like day 2.

We have the chance to win. If only red and Poppy were killed and I had Chang (killed by Roshan who thought I was his scummate), Kirby (killed by scum so he couldn't help confirm me with same time post), and MZero as my soldiers, there would be a chance

Anyway I'm cool. We lose, it was a broken setup that I called.

Anyone who is town consider this

Assume this setup is legitimately 3/2/1 right now

We're already screwed even if we lynch scum. Say you lynch me "correctly" removing one of the scum. Night kill happens, now it's 2/1/1. Town literally can't win if I'm not right.

You have to, if you want any chance to win, give me the benefit of a doubt and say maybe I'm not just insane and there is some merit to anything I'm saying here. Please, do your due diligence. Look all across the game-- see who I could potentially be scum with, see why Ctes would possibly be scum with a fake flip ability instead of town. If you're dead certain I'm scum, try to find my scummate, and see if anything makes sense to you that isn't Ulti.

Red as a scum role doesn't make sense, you can throw him out.
MZero went hard on both Sultan and Hb, and his money making ability is confirmed due to purchases made
I went super hard on Poppy day 2, which makes almost no sense if I'm scum trying to divert the lynch off scum.

It basically has to be SBell or Ulti.

Also consider Corrik's target n1. He died targeting SOMEONE. There are only 5 choices on the board right now-- it's not hard to figure it out.

UltimaterializerX posted...

If Red checks out, then Corrik died targeting Ninja. That's an easy one. And assuming 10/4/1, that would mean a scum team of you + MZero with Ninja as Rosh

Corrik died targeting Ninja
Ninja is Rosh

????

UltimaterializerX posted...

Red. He was under the radar all game so I thought for sure he was getting killed, since he's the biggest name left.

Him being alive means he's our most likely Roshan. But we mathematically can't lynch him until tomorrow with a potential 10/4/1 setup.

wat

UltimaterializerX posted...

If Red checks out, then Corrik died targeting Ninja. That's an easy one. And assuming 10/4/1, that would mean a scum team of you + MZero with Ninja as Rosh. The only out town has is to kill mafia today and then hope Mafia + SK don't both shoot town. Sucks, but that's what happens when you have SK in 15 and they always hit town.

And no you don't get the benefit of the doubt after that garbage yesterday followed by "there must be a banned role lol".

I'm going to bed for real this time.

if i were roshan i'd be dead, reread corrik's role

willing to cross the bridge of any doubts on me tomorrow but i'm fairly clearly not scum with lopen and the fact that there are multiple kills now points solidly away from corrik having died from visiting his target

Lopen posted...

He died targeting SOMEONE.

pick one. alternating sk or corrik targeted scum.

can't be both.

Corrik dying from targeting someone is no longer an obvious answer.

Unless someone is going to just up and claim vigi but I'm pretty sure we'd just immediately lynch them for that.

Lopen dies

Also I got a pineapple

100% serious btw I legitimately received a pineapple from an unknown source

I can use it as a day action but it didn't say what it does. Or I can pass it to someone

Tag

Pass it to me I'll use it

Anyway if Mzero wants to lynch me too we're lost

You are all cowards

Red is the worst. Such braindead play for someone who idles the first few days. I thought you solved games if allowed to live.

I mean if we lose to a death miller so be it, but I'm not losing to a literal fake Psychic claim

i said yesterday if ctes flips town today we kill you. It's the only right thing to do

Plus I still don't like you drawing heat off Hb by focusing so hard on Corrik's target

I sent poppy 2 shovels

Losing to an imbalanced setup is a cop out. Solve. Why do I make that fake claim as scum or Roshan. Think.

Like what is the endgame to a psychic claim. Do you think I need to 1 for 1? What if two powers reveal and I contradict both? The risk/reward is exceedingly poor.

MZero posted...

I mean if we lose to a death miller so be it, but I'm not losing to a literal fake Psychic claim

i said yesterday if ctes flips town today we kill you. It's the only right thing to do

Plus I still don't like you drawing heat off Hb by focusing so hard on Corrik's target

If we lose to death miller we just ban the host and I'm not going to lose an ounce of sleep tbh.

To sum up my scum game

Solo lynch our RB
Try to get heat off hb, unsuccessfully, undoing all good will from lynching our rb
One for one a guy who looked sketchy anyway

(There is no death miller)

Enjoy your ban Isquen. I thought it was clever at least.

I blame the community not the host

don't we have a co-host too?

I think the co-host saw all those ways to guess the Miller Watcher is fake

This community would rather take the cop out and blame the host rather than be forced to analyze play though

I don't know why you are continuing to try to run with this other than pointlessly distract, tbh.

Just venting on the state of mafia

It's annoying I almost modkilled myself due to "unfair" roles, thought better of it, and the game is basically choosing to do that rather than analyze game actions

If it's 2 scum + rosh town can't win
If I'm a solo anti-town the claim was suicide

Lopen posted...

Like what is the endgame to a psychic claim. Do you think I need to 1 for 1? What if two powers reveal and I contradict both? The risk/reward is exceedingly poor.

You could be scum psychic and knew one person targeted you

Lopen posted...

To sum up my scum game

Solo lynch our RB
Try to get heat off hb, unsuccessfully, undoing all good will from lynching our rb
One for one a guy who looked sketchy anyway

One pro-town action, one pro-scum action, and one action that would have been pro-scum if successful and Poppy is town

although I almost want to policy lynch Ulti for hammering ctes so I don't have enough cash to buy a blink dagger

also Lopen weren't you going to same time the number of people who targeted while everyone else posted their actions? what happened to that

What exactly is a death miller?