Board 8 > Biden | 40,962,735 | 57.64% | Trump | 27,258,817 | 38.36% [Ng Election Tracker!]

Topic List
Page List: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 ... 10
banananor
10/30/20 5:23:43 PM
#202:


On topic... Texas already has had more votes cast than in 2016

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redrocket
10/30/20 5:35:49 PM
#203:


So Im watching Fox News right now (lol) and they are 100% pushing the narrative that this race is still neck and neck and Biden is in trouble in the battleground states. They are saying that senior Democrats are going into panic mode now because early vote returns are not what they were hoping for.

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azuarc
10/30/20 7:06:17 PM
#204:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Tag.

How do I block someone who already has me blocked?

Not gonna be able to follow the topic with all this Ulti.

I already have Ulti blocked, and the topic isn't a whole lot better. (I assume. I haven't seen the ulti posts.)

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Mr Lasastryke
10/30/20 9:07:12 PM
#205:


kanye isn't a trump supporter anymore now that he's running himself.

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TheRock1525
10/30/20 9:50:48 PM
#206:


So what is there no New Politics containment topic? Or did someone make it and I happen to have them on ignore?

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Mr Lasastryke
10/30/20 9:53:34 PM
#207:


tony made a new one.

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TheRock1525
10/30/20 9:56:17 PM
#208:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
tony made a new one.
Well that would explain it. I have Tony on ignore.

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#209
Post #209 was unavailable or deleted.
BlAcK TuRtLe
10/30/20 11:57:54 PM
#210:


Jakyl25 posted...
I bet you share at least one view with Trump
One thing I will give Trump all the credit in the world for that Obama completely dropped the ball on, was pulling troops out of needless proxy wars in the middle east

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ChaosTonyV4
10/31/20 1:37:01 AM
#211:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
One thing I will give Trump all the credit in the world for that Obama completely dropped the ball on, was pulling troops out of needless proxy wars in the middle east

Were still doing it my man

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xp1337
10/31/20 2:15:13 AM
#212:


Yeah, the number of troops in the Middle East has basically remained the same over the last four years. Heck, as of late 2019 there were more there than there were when Trump took office as far as news organizations could determine. There's no true publicly available number for specific troop levels but as of last month NPR was saying that in Iraq specifically the number is about the same as the end of Obama's term.

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Ngamer64
10/31/20 2:57:01 AM
#213:


...whoa, this topic certainly went places! I'd intended it as a more low key stats-oriented update poll thread filled with B8 Contest tracking memes, but hey, it's fine- this is a heated election and a very important subject so I understand why everyone's so passionate. For now though, back to our regularly scheduled daily update!
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The pace of early voting slowed ever so slightly over the course of the last day. And, well, that's where the good news for Trump ends.

Results From The Last 24 Hours
New Votes Cast 5,756,036
Biden Votes (estimated) 2,968,561
Trump Votes (estimated) 2,520,059

Trump continues to slip in terms of slashing into this percentage lead, advancing only 0.65% closer to Biden over the last day (yesterday he cut .78). And Joe continues to pile up big numbers across the board, further extending his lead by an impressive 448,502 votes.

This gives us a new total tally of
87,798,086 Total Early Votes Cast
(63.7% of 2016's total)

49,561,661 Biden Votes (estimated)
34,596,606 Trump Votes (estimated)
14,965,055 Current Lead (estimated)

56.45% Biden Total Percentage (estimated)
39.40% Trump Total Percentage (estimated)
17.04% Current Lead (estimated)

The silver lining for Trump: CNN's new poll yesterday indicated he absolutely dominates amongst potential November 3rd voters, with 59% of those who said they were planning to go to the polls that day indicating they are leaning toward supporting the incumbent. Two problems though:

  1. Even that wouldn't be enough. With only 62 million ballots yet to be cast, Trumps needs to pull down an insane 62.1% of the remaining vote to pull even. And as you've been seeing, that number keeps rising significantly each day (58.7 --> 60.7 --> 62.1). If trends hold, by the time Tuesday morning arrives it looks like Biden's popular vote lead is going to be insurmountable.
  2. Notice the weasel words from above: potential voters, planning to make it to the polls, leaning towards Trump. It's like I stressed yesterday- Trump's glorious comeback is all theoretical, while Biden's huge lead has already been banked.
The biggest news of the day though is something else I touched on yesterday, how there was one state that was going to surpass its 2016 total by this evening. I goofed up though, because it turns out TWO states actually earned that impressive distinction! Congrats to

Texas
Hawaii

For cracking the elusive 100% mark. Let's also give a round of applause to the states who went past 75% today and likewise have a chance of beating their mark from last cycle during the early voting phase:

Washington (the state, but DC is also close at 70%)
Oregon
Nevada
Montana(!)
Colorado
Vermont
New Jersey
Utah (actually 74% right now but close enough)
plus the Southern states I mentioned yesterday: AZ, NM, FL, GA, TN, NC

Great results for democracy!

More details as always in the sheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing

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MikeTavish
10/31/20 3:02:22 AM
#214:


This is is giving me so much hope for your country to get back to some semblance of sanity.

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KanzarisKelshen
10/31/20 3:04:42 AM
#215:


Hey Ngamer, what's the most lopsided election day result ever? Just curious if Trump can at least hope for a repeat of a past peformance or if it'd be utterly anomalous if he made the comeback.

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azuarc
10/31/20 4:15:21 AM
#216:


KanzarisKelshen posted...
Hey Ngamer, what's the most lopsided election day result ever? Just curious if Trump can at least hope for a repeat of a past peformance or if it'd be utterly anomalous if he made the comeback.

There were some very lopsided (or even uncontested in Washington's case) elections early in our history. Since 1820, the most lopsided has been Warren Harding's destruction of James Cox, with a 26% margin of victory in the popular vote (60-34).

Ng concluded that Trump would need 62% of the remaining vote. While there are obviously some caveats to the accuracy of that figure, 62% would be a stronger performance than we've seen on election day in 200 years.

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Metal_DK
10/31/20 5:48:28 AM
#217:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Social media in general is the worst invention in human history.

Hey @Metal_DK , got any thoughts on that one? ;)

We all know what the problem ultimately is. Sad but it is what it is

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red sox 777
10/31/20 12:14:34 PM
#218:


We've never had an election before where one of the candidates encouraged his supporters to vote by mail instead of on election day. So I think all comparisons with the past are unrealistic in that sense.

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banananor
10/31/20 12:19:38 PM
#219:


We've also never had an election where one of the candidates suggested voting by mail was inherently fraudulent

We're certainly going to see a set of completely new data

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UshiromiyaEva
10/31/20 2:15:28 PM
#220:


For those who kept bring up how wrong they though the polls and chances in 2016 were, here's Silver's analysis of what the map would look like Tuesday if the polls were just as fucked as they were then.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520?s=19

Edit: well, not Tuesday specifically for obvious reasons, but you know what I mean.

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ACAB
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Alanna82
10/31/20 3:13:28 PM
#221:


I like how Nebraska has a stripe. I'm from Nebraska, and I am seeing a TON of Biden signs and very few Trump signs.

Wonder which district they have blue?

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tyder21
10/31/20 3:28:29 PM
#222:


Alanna82 posted...
Wonder which district they have blue?
Blue stripe is from Nebraska's 2nd district.

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#223
Post #223 was unavailable or deleted.
XIII_rocks
10/31/20 3:33:40 PM
#224:


Every time I see something like that indicating a Biden win, I get more worried that it means Trump will win

It's a sickness

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Team Rocket Elite
10/31/20 3:38:05 PM
#225:


Well keep in mind that if you saw something similar but it said Trump would win, you would feel even worse. >_>
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UshiromiyaEva
10/31/20 3:38:06 PM
#226:


I mean it really boils down to this.

Under normal circumstances, Biden's victory would be incredibly safe to assume, even if you factor in incredibly biased polling.

The wild card here is exactly how far the Republicans are going to go to cheat. In Texas, for example, Republicans are attempting to get 100k primarily democratic votes thrown out on monday, and have rolled a partisan judge who very well may do just that.


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masterplum
10/31/20 3:43:10 PM
#227:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
I mean it really boils down to this.

Under normal circumstances, Biden's victory would be incredibly safe to assume, even if you factor in incredibly biased polling.

The wild card here is exactly how far the Republicans are going to go to cheat. In Texas, for example, Republicans are attempting to get 100k primarily democratic votes thrown out on monday, and have rolled a partisan judge who very well may do just that.

dude, have you ever flipped three coins and they were all heads?

Thats Trumps odds of winning. He can win and not have it be a grand conspiracy against you.

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UshiromiyaEva
10/31/20 3:46:02 PM
#228:


masterplum posted...
dude, have you ever flipped three coins and they were all heads?

Thats Trumps odds of winning. He can win and not have it be a grand conspiracy against you.

Trump is currently 1 to 9 on 538.

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ACAB
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masterplum
10/31/20 3:47:25 PM
#229:


Thank you for that extremely important clarification that he is 1 in 9 instead of 1 in 8. It changes my point entirely

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WarThaNemesis2
10/31/20 3:47:44 PM
#230:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Trump is currently 1 to 9 on 538.

Yes, and three coins all coming up heads is 1 in 8.

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UshiromiyaEva
10/31/20 3:51:40 PM
#231:


It's a noteable difference! Just making sure you were up to date.

Regardless, of course it doesn't mean there were grand conspiracies by default. Unfortunately, we do have active recorded suppression attempts ongoing as we speak. The Texas thing is happening. In the same place yesterday, a caravan of 50 vehicles of Trump supporters, many armed, attempted to run the Biden/Harris campaign bus off the road and damaged vehicles in the process, forcing them to cancel the trip. This isn't conspiracy, this is just factual events occurring with video evidence.

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ACAB
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ChaosTonyV4
10/31/20 4:15:22 PM
#232:


UltimaterializerX posted...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QRVDv35P6LM4AyC2CqHfP1ghsxVrN26c_j9yjM-juhE/htmlview

Like I said yesterday, Florida going Trump means a lot of other states are going to have late surges favoring him as well. Arizona is looking like its his.

Ulti setting the groundwork for his patented I bet on his win and won 90 million dollars election night special

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Jakyl25
10/31/20 4:17:01 PM
#233:


A lot of states are having surges all right
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Sorozone
10/31/20 5:20:33 PM
#234:


Trump taking AZ wouldn't be unrealistic....but Kelly has been dominating and I just can't see a Kelly/Trump ticket by anyone in this state.

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Suprak the Stud
10/31/20 6:21:27 PM
#235:


In 2018 Arizona did Sinema by 2.4 and Ducey by 14. Arizona is one of the few states a split ticket is possible.

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LordoftheMorons
10/31/20 7:19:45 PM
#236:


I think we all know deep in our hearts how the election is actually gonna go, though

https://i.redd.it/0e5qy56y2bw51.png

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xp1337
10/31/20 7:22:04 PM
#237:


oh man i was expecting the meme but that might almost be better lol

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Mr Lasastryke
10/31/20 7:32:38 PM
#238:


masterplum posted...
dude, have you ever flipped three coins and they were all heads?

Thats Trumps odds of winning. He can win and not have it be a grand conspiracy against you.

"plenty of republicans are pieces of shit who are going to do everything they can to cheat" isn't a "grand conspiracy." it's called "reality."

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Ngamer64
10/31/20 8:03:19 PM
#239:


There's one thing from earlier I did want to correct though.

metaIslug posted...
Who here been following the rapper wars??

Trump Clan
Ice Cube
Lil Wayne
Lil Pump
50
Kanye

Biden Shack
Cardi B
Puff
Snoop Dogg
Naaaaah man. Kayne has rescinded his support, 50 changed his mind the next day, Cube insists he doesn't endorse either candidate this cycle. Also

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Joe_Biden_2020_presidential_campaign_endorsements#Musicians

So the war would be

Trump Clan
Lil Wayne
Lil Pump
6ix9ine
Asian Doll
Polow da Don
Waka Flocka Flame

Biden Clan
Snoop
Diddy
Luda
Offset
Cardi B
Common
Lizzo
Taboo & the BEP
Steve Aoki
Bad Bunny
A$AP Ferg
Jeezy

And while Eminem hasn't officially endorsed, he's been very active in getting Michigan to vote over the last couple months and we all know he despises Trump, so he can be an honorary member of the BC.

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xp1337
10/31/20 8:08:44 PM
#240:


yeah but, and this is 100% true, the daily show commissioned a poll with YouGov finding (among many other things) that more Americans think Trump would be better at performing a rap song than Biden

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HeroDelTiempo17
10/31/20 8:18:25 PM
#241:


Just from that list you missed Daveed Diggs (of Hamilton/clipping.) and Janelle Monae and Frank Ocean who are more R&B but do rap.

If you get into unofficial endorsements or support I'm sure there is far more. Like RTJ did a get out the vote virtual concert and Killer Mike campaigned for Bernie so you KNOW they're not breaking for Trump

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#242
Post #242 was unavailable or deleted.
Ngamer64
11/01/20 1:51:27 AM
#243:


Today we saw mail in ballots finally start to taper off while in-person voting continued at a strong pace across the country. As a result the incoming votes were down slightly and also, Trump posted his best result of the election season so far. Could this be turning into a real contest? Let's check the numbers!

Results From The Last 24 Hours
New Votes Cast 4,240,331
Biden Votes (estimated) 2,040,778
Trump Votes (estimated) 1,975,103

Joe once again comes out on top, but this time by a margin of only 65,676 votes. This also means that despite the lower volume of new ballots, Trump was able to manage a respectable 0.71% cut to the overall percentage. That all sounds like fairly good news for him, but let's take a look at the bigger picture.

The new overall tally comes to
92,038,417 Total Early Votes Cast
(66.8% of 2016's total)

51,602,439 Biden Votes (estimated)
36,571,709 Trump Votes (estimated)
15,030,731 Current Lead (estimated)

56.07% Biden Total Percentage (estimated)
39.74% Trump Total Percentage (estimated)
16.33% Current Lead (estimated)

Okay so it wasn't Biden's best day, but if you'd told his campaign a month ago he'd have an advantage of well over 16 percentage points and a lead that just cracked 15 million heading into Election Day, they would have been beyond thrilled!

Honestly I think you can chalk this performance up to a lack of faith in the United States Postal Service, first and foremost. The most dedicated Democrats or Biden fans sent their ballots early, and now everyone who supports him but didn't get on the ball early is being told "it's too late to mail your ballot!" and many of them are probably planning to just vote on November 3rd instead.

If that's the case though, it does creates a real possibility of Trump winning outright tomorrow. Will we see it? Stay tuned!

Before Trump fans get too excited though, it should be noted that today's much better showing still wasn't enough to change the math where it matters most. He's still way behind overall and now there are only 58 million votes left to be cast, meaning he'll need a full 63% of all ballots the rest of the way (up from 62.1% yesterday). Not impossible, but still hugely unlikely.

In state news, no one else crossed the 100% mark today in terms of reaching 2016's final tally, but we might see two or even three more states accomplish that achievement on Sunday.

More details as always in the sheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing

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red sox 777
11/01/20 2:33:57 AM
#244:


Tomorrow is Sunday. No mail delivery.

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LeonhartFour
11/01/20 9:04:16 AM
#245:


red sox 777 posted...
Tomorrow is Sunday. No mail delivery.

Some places are collecting though because of ballots.

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LeonhartFour
11/01/20 9:05:42 AM
#246:


Ngamer64 posted...
Honestly I think you can chalk this performance up to a lack of faith in the United States Postal Service, first and foremost.

wow Ngamer taking shots at my profession

I was picking up mail-in ballots yesterday in fact

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/20 10:49:38 AM
#247:


https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1322912856153739266?s=19

"But it's not a conspiracy"

Legit don't understand how anyone with even 1/9th of a brain doesn't think the Rs are gonna try to cheat this thing.

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Leonhart4
11/01/20 10:58:39 AM
#248:


And then SBAllen will step in and say that the cheating was basically even on both sides, so the result stands.

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meche313
11/01/20 12:51:00 PM
#249:


Ngamer64 posted...
Today we saw mail in ballots finally start to taper off while in-person voting continued at a strong pace across the country. As a result the incoming votes were down slightly and also, Trump posted his best result of the election season so far. Could this be turning into a real contest? Let's check the numbers!

Results From The Last 24 Hours
New Votes Cast 4,240,331
Biden Votes (estimated) 2,040,778
Trump Votes (estimated) 1,975,103

Joe once again comes out on top, but this time by a margin of only 65,676 votes. This also means that despite the lower volume of new ballots, Trump was able to manage a respectable 0.71% cut to the overall percentage. That all sounds like fairly good news for him, but let's take a look at the bigger picture.

The new overall tally comes to
92,038,417 Total Early Votes Cast
(66.8% of 2016's total)

51,602,439 Biden Votes (estimated)
36,571,709 Trump Votes (estimated)
15,030,731 Current Lead (estimated)

56.07% Biden Total Percentage (estimated)
39.74% Trump Total Percentage (estimated)
16.33% Current Lead (estimated)

Okay so it wasn't Biden's best day, but if you'd told his campaign a month ago he'd have an advantage of well over 16 percentage points and a lead that just cracked 15 million heading into Election Day, they would have been beyond thrilled!

Honestly I think you can chalk this performance up to a lack of faith in the United States Postal Service, first and foremost. The most dedicated Democrats or Biden fans sent their ballots early, and now everyone who supports him but didn't get on the ball early is being told "it's too late to mail your ballot!" and many of them are probably planning to just vote on November 3rd instead.

If that's the case though, it does creates a real possibility of Trump winning outright tomorrow. Will we see it? Stay tuned!

Before Trump fans get too excited though, it should be noted that today's much better showing still wasn't enough to change the math where it matters most. He's still way behind overall and now there are only 58 million votes left to be cast, meaning he'll need a full 63% of all ballots the rest of the way (up from 62.1% yesterday). Not impossible, but still hugely unlikely.

In state news, no one else crossed the 100% mark today in terms of reaching 2016's final tally, but we might see two or even three more states accomplish that achievement on Sunday.

More details as always in the sheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing
Hey NG,

Two questions/comments.
1- You keep writing about this 63% of the vote that Trump needs to obtain to comeback in this election. That is all fine and good, but that percentage is likely much smaller because he only needs to 'comeback' in the battleground states (i.e. it doesn't matter by how much he losses states like California.)
2- While early vote turnout has been great in many states, Pennsylvanians have only cast 38% of the votes compared to the total amount of votes casted in 2016. Is that something Democrats should be worried about?

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GildedFool
11/01/20 1:29:20 PM
#250:


NGamer is specifically only counting the popular vote.

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LinkMarioSamus
11/01/20 1:53:42 PM
#251:


I'm pretty sure we've all taken into consideration how likely Trump is to win at certain percentages of the popular vote.

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