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banananor 10/30/20 5:23:43 PM #202: |
On topic... Texas already has had more votes cast than in 2016
--- You did indeed stab me in the back. However, you are only level one, whilst I am level 50. That means I should remain uninjured. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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redrocket 10/30/20 5:35:49 PM #203: |
So Im watching Fox News right now (lol) and they are 100% pushing the narrative that this race is still neck and neck and Biden is in trouble in the battleground states. They are saying that senior Democrats are going into panic mode now because early vote returns are not what they were hoping for.
--- It's like paying for bubble wrap. -transience on Final Fantasy: All the Bravest ... Copied to Clipboard!
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azuarc 10/30/20 7:06:17 PM #204: |
UshiromiyaEva posted...
Tag. I already have Ulti blocked, and the topic isn't a whole lot better. (I assume. I haven't seen the ulti posts.) --- Video Game Music Contest 14 champion: Idola Phantasy Star Saga - Endeavour ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Mr Lasastryke 10/30/20 9:07:12 PM #205: |
kanye isn't a trump supporter anymore now that he's running himself.
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TheRock1525 10/30/20 9:50:48 PM #206: |
So what is there no New Politics containment topic? Or did someone make it and I happen to have them on ignore?
--- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Mr Lasastryke 10/30/20 9:53:34 PM #207: |
tony made a new one.
--- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TheRock1525 10/30/20 9:56:17 PM #208: |
Mr Lasastryke posted...
tony made a new one.Well that would explain it. I have Tony on ignore. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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#209 | Post #209 was unavailable or deleted. |
BlAcK TuRtLe 10/30/20 11:57:54 PM #210: |
Jakyl25 posted...
I bet you share at least one view with TrumpOne thing I will give Trump all the credit in the world for that Obama completely dropped the ball on, was pulling troops out of needless proxy wars in the middle east --- Props to azuarc, the current Guru of the Decade. Wear this title with pride! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ChaosTonyV4 10/31/20 1:37:01 AM #211: |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
One thing I will give Trump all the credit in the world for that Obama completely dropped the ball on, was pulling troops out of needless proxy wars in the middle east Were still doing it my man --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado ... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 10/31/20 2:15:13 AM #212: |
Yeah, the number of troops in the Middle East has basically remained the same over the last four years. Heck, as of late 2019 there were more there than there were when Trump took office as far as news organizations could determine. There's no true publicly available number for specific troop levels but as of last month NPR was saying that in Iraq specifically the number is about the same as the end of Obama's term.
--- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Ngamer64 10/31/20 2:57:01 AM #213: |
...whoa, this topic certainly went places! I'd intended it as a more low key stats-oriented update poll thread filled with B8 Contest tracking memes, but hey, it's fine- this is a heated election and a very important subject so I understand why everyone's so passionate. For now though, back to our regularly scheduled daily update!
--- The pace of early voting slowed ever so slightly over the course of the last day. And, well, that's where the good news for Trump ends. Results From The Last 24 Hours New Votes Cast 5,756,036 Biden Votes (estimated) 2,968,561 Trump Votes (estimated) 2,520,059 Trump continues to slip in terms of slashing into this percentage lead, advancing only 0.65% closer to Biden over the last day (yesterday he cut .78). And Joe continues to pile up big numbers across the board, further extending his lead by an impressive 448,502 votes. This gives us a new total tally of 87,798,086 Total Early Votes Cast (63.7% of 2016's total) 49,561,661 Biden Votes (estimated) 34,596,606 Trump Votes (estimated) 14,965,055 Current Lead (estimated) 56.45% Biden Total Percentage (estimated) 39.40% Trump Total Percentage (estimated) 17.04% Current Lead (estimated) The silver lining for Trump: CNN's new poll yesterday indicated he absolutely dominates amongst potential November 3rd voters, with 59% of those who said they were planning to go to the polls that day indicating they are leaning toward supporting the incumbent. Two problems though:
Texas Hawaii For cracking the elusive 100% mark. Let's also give a round of applause to the states who went past 75% today and likewise have a chance of beating their mark from last cycle during the early voting phase: Washington (the state, but DC is also close at 70%) Oregon Nevada Montana(!) Colorado Vermont New Jersey Utah (actually 74% right now but close enough) plus the Southern states I mentioned yesterday: AZ, NM, FL, GA, TN, NC Great results for democracy! More details as always in the sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing --- Congrats to azuarc, Mario Kart 64 AND GameFAQs Contest Legend! board8.fandom.com/wiki/The_Show | thengamer.com/xstats ... Copied to Clipboard!
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MikeTavish 10/31/20 3:02:22 AM #214: |
This is is giving me so much hope for your country to get back to some semblance of sanity.
--- Formerly ff6man. Azuarc won the guru! Congrats! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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KanzarisKelshen 10/31/20 3:04:42 AM #215: |
Hey Ngamer, what's the most lopsided election day result ever? Just curious if Trump can at least hope for a repeat of a past peformance or if it'd be utterly anomalous if he made the comeback.
--- Shine on, you crazy diamond. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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azuarc 10/31/20 4:15:21 AM #216: |
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Hey Ngamer, what's the most lopsided election day result ever? Just curious if Trump can at least hope for a repeat of a past peformance or if it'd be utterly anomalous if he made the comeback. There were some very lopsided (or even uncontested in Washington's case) elections early in our history. Since 1820, the most lopsided has been Warren Harding's destruction of James Cox, with a 26% margin of victory in the popular vote (60-34). Ng concluded that Trump would need 62% of the remaining vote. While there are obviously some caveats to the accuracy of that figure, 62% would be a stronger performance than we've seen on election day in 200 years. --- Video Game Music Contest 14 champion: Idola Phantasy Star Saga - Endeavour ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Metal_DK 10/31/20 5:48:28 AM #217: |
UltimaterializerX posted...
Social media in general is the worst invention in human history. We all know what the problem ultimately is. Sad but it is what it is --- Casual Revolution 2007 - 2016 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 10/31/20 12:14:34 PM #218: |
We've never had an election before where one of the candidates encouraged his supporters to vote by mail instead of on election day. So I think all comparisons with the past are unrealistic in that sense.
--- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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banananor 10/31/20 12:19:38 PM #219: |
We've also never had an election where one of the candidates suggested voting by mail was inherently fraudulent
We're certainly going to see a set of completely new data --- You did indeed stab me in the back. However, you are only level one, whilst I am level 50. That means I should remain uninjured. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 10/31/20 2:15:28 PM #220: |
For those who kept bring up how wrong they though the polls and chances in 2016 were, here's Silver's analysis of what the map would look like Tuesday if the polls were just as fucked as they were then.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520?s=19 Edit: well, not Tuesday specifically for obvious reasons, but you know what I mean. --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Alanna82 10/31/20 3:13:28 PM #221: |
I like how Nebraska has a stripe. I'm from Nebraska, and I am seeing a TON of Biden signs and very few Trump signs.
Wonder which district they have blue? --- Don't mess with a Bunny! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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tyder21 10/31/20 3:28:29 PM #222: |
Alanna82 posted...
Wonder which district they have blue?Blue stripe is from Nebraska's 2nd district. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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#223 | Post #223 was unavailable or deleted. |
XIII_rocks 10/31/20 3:33:40 PM #224: |
Every time I see something like that indicating a Biden win, I get more worried that it means Trump will win
It's a sickness --- Not to be confused with XIII_stones. https://imgur.com/agodP3r ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Team Rocket Elite 10/31/20 3:38:05 PM #225: |
Well keep in mind that if you saw something similar but it said Trump would win, you would feel even worse. >_>
--- My bracket looked like random picks compared to his. Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD 2020 Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 10/31/20 3:38:06 PM #226: |
I mean it really boils down to this.
Under normal circumstances, Biden's victory would be incredibly safe to assume, even if you factor in incredibly biased polling. The wild card here is exactly how far the Republicans are going to go to cheat. In Texas, for example, Republicans are attempting to get 100k primarily democratic votes thrown out on monday, and have rolled a partisan judge who very well may do just that. --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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masterplum 10/31/20 3:43:10 PM #227: |
UshiromiyaEva posted...
I mean it really boils down to this. dude, have you ever flipped three coins and they were all heads? Thats Trumps odds of winning. He can win and not have it be a grand conspiracy against you. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 10/31/20 3:46:02 PM #228: |
masterplum posted...
dude, have you ever flipped three coins and they were all heads? Trump is currently 1 to 9 on 538. --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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masterplum 10/31/20 3:47:25 PM #229: |
Thank you for that extremely important clarification that he is 1 in 9 instead of 1 in 8. It changes my point entirely
--- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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WarThaNemesis2 10/31/20 3:47:44 PM #230: |
UshiromiyaEva posted...
Trump is currently 1 to 9 on 538. Yes, and three coins all coming up heads is 1 in 8. --- Not a stinky alien. :( Nintendo Switch Code: SW-5719-6555-8388 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 10/31/20 3:51:40 PM #231: |
It's a noteable difference! Just making sure you were up to date.
Regardless, of course it doesn't mean there were grand conspiracies by default. Unfortunately, we do have active recorded suppression attempts ongoing as we speak. The Texas thing is happening. In the same place yesterday, a caravan of 50 vehicles of Trump supporters, many armed, attempted to run the Biden/Harris campaign bus off the road and damaged vehicles in the process, forcing them to cancel the trip. This isn't conspiracy, this is just factual events occurring with video evidence. --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ChaosTonyV4 10/31/20 4:15:22 PM #232: |
UltimaterializerX posted...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QRVDv35P6LM4AyC2CqHfP1ghsxVrN26c_j9yjM-juhE/htmlview Ulti setting the groundwork for his patented I bet on his win and won 90 million dollars election night special --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 10/31/20 4:17:01 PM #233: |
A lot of states are having surges all right
--- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Sorozone 10/31/20 5:20:33 PM #234: |
Trump taking AZ wouldn't be unrealistic....but Kelly has been dominating and I just can't see a Kelly/Trump ticket by anyone in this state.
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Suprak the Stud 10/31/20 6:21:27 PM #235: |
In 2018 Arizona did Sinema by 2.4 and Ducey by 14. Arizona is one of the few states a split ticket is possible.
--- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 10/31/20 7:19:45 PM #236: |
I think we all know deep in our hearts how the election is actually gonna go, though
https://i.redd.it/0e5qy56y2bw51.png --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 10/31/20 7:22:04 PM #237: |
oh man i was expecting the meme but that might almost be better lol
--- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Mr Lasastryke 10/31/20 7:32:38 PM #238: |
masterplum posted...
dude, have you ever flipped three coins and they were all heads? "plenty of republicans are pieces of shit who are going to do everything they can to cheat" isn't a "grand conspiracy." it's called "reality." --- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Ngamer64 10/31/20 8:03:19 PM #239: |
There's one thing from earlier I did want to correct though.
metaIslug posted... Who here been following the rapper wars??Naaaaah man. Kayne has rescinded his support, 50 changed his mind the next day, Cube insists he doesn't endorse either candidate this cycle. Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Joe_Biden_2020_presidential_campaign_endorsements#Musicians So the war would be Trump Clan Lil Wayne Lil Pump 6ix9ine Asian Doll Polow da Don Waka Flocka Flame Biden Clan Snoop Diddy Luda Offset Cardi B Common Lizzo Taboo & the BEP Steve Aoki Bad Bunny A$AP Ferg Jeezy And while Eminem hasn't officially endorsed, he's been very active in getting Michigan to vote over the last couple months and we all know he despises Trump, so he can be an honorary member of the BC. --- Congrats to azuarc, Mario Kart 64 AND GameFAQs Contest Legend! board8.fandom.com/wiki/The_Show | thengamer.com/xstats ... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 10/31/20 8:08:44 PM #240: |
yeah but, and this is 100% true, the daily show commissioned a poll with YouGov finding (among many other things) that more Americans think Trump would be better at performing a rap song than Biden
--- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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HeroDelTiempo17 10/31/20 8:18:25 PM #241: |
Just from that list you missed Daveed Diggs (of Hamilton/clipping.) and Janelle Monae and Frank Ocean who are more R&B but do rap.
If you get into unofficial endorsements or support I'm sure there is far more. Like RTJ did a get out the vote virtual concert and Killer Mike campaigned for Bernie so you KNOW they're not breaking for Trump --- I definitely did not forget to put the 2020 GOTD Guru winner, azuarc in my sig! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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#242 | Post #242 was unavailable or deleted. |
Ngamer64 11/01/20 1:51:27 AM #243: |
Today we saw mail in ballots finally start to taper off while in-person voting continued at a strong pace across the country. As a result the incoming votes were down slightly and also, Trump posted his best result of the election season so far. Could this be turning into a real contest? Let's check the numbers!
Results From The Last 24 Hours New Votes Cast 4,240,331 Biden Votes (estimated) 2,040,778 Trump Votes (estimated) 1,975,103 Joe once again comes out on top, but this time by a margin of only 65,676 votes. This also means that despite the lower volume of new ballots, Trump was able to manage a respectable 0.71% cut to the overall percentage. That all sounds like fairly good news for him, but let's take a look at the bigger picture. The new overall tally comes to 92,038,417 Total Early Votes Cast (66.8% of 2016's total) 51,602,439 Biden Votes (estimated) 36,571,709 Trump Votes (estimated) 15,030,731 Current Lead (estimated) 56.07% Biden Total Percentage (estimated) 39.74% Trump Total Percentage (estimated) 16.33% Current Lead (estimated) Okay so it wasn't Biden's best day, but if you'd told his campaign a month ago he'd have an advantage of well over 16 percentage points and a lead that just cracked 15 million heading into Election Day, they would have been beyond thrilled! Honestly I think you can chalk this performance up to a lack of faith in the United States Postal Service, first and foremost. The most dedicated Democrats or Biden fans sent their ballots early, and now everyone who supports him but didn't get on the ball early is being told "it's too late to mail your ballot!" and many of them are probably planning to just vote on November 3rd instead. If that's the case though, it does creates a real possibility of Trump winning outright tomorrow. Will we see it? Stay tuned! Before Trump fans get too excited though, it should be noted that today's much better showing still wasn't enough to change the math where it matters most. He's still way behind overall and now there are only 58 million votes left to be cast, meaning he'll need a full 63% of all ballots the rest of the way (up from 62.1% yesterday). Not impossible, but still hugely unlikely. In state news, no one else crossed the 100% mark today in terms of reaching 2016's final tally, but we might see two or even three more states accomplish that achievement on Sunday. More details as always in the sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing --- Congrats to azuarc, Mario Kart 64 AND GameFAQs Contest Legend! board8.fandom.com/wiki/The_Show | thengamer.com/xstats ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/01/20 2:33:57 AM #244: |
Tomorrow is Sunday. No mail delivery.
--- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/01/20 9:04:16 AM #245: |
red sox 777 posted...
Tomorrow is Sunday. No mail delivery. Some places are collecting though because of ballots. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/01/20 9:05:42 AM #246: |
Ngamer64 posted...
Honestly I think you can chalk this performance up to a lack of faith in the United States Postal Service, first and foremost. wow Ngamer taking shots at my profession I was picking up mail-in ballots yesterday in fact --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 11/01/20 10:49:38 AM #247: |
https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1322912856153739266?s=19
"But it's not a conspiracy" Legit don't understand how anyone with even 1/9th of a brain doesn't think the Rs are gonna try to cheat this thing. --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 11/01/20 10:58:39 AM #248: |
And then SBAllen will step in and say that the cheating was basically even on both sides, so the result stands.
--- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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meche313 11/01/20 12:51:00 PM #249: |
Ngamer64 posted...
Today we saw mail in ballots finally start to taper off while in-person voting continued at a strong pace across the country. As a result the incoming votes were down slightly and also, Trump posted his best result of the election season so far. Could this be turning into a real contest? Let's check the numbers!Hey NG, Two questions/comments. 1- You keep writing about this 63% of the vote that Trump needs to obtain to comeback in this election. That is all fine and good, but that percentage is likely much smaller because he only needs to 'comeback' in the battleground states (i.e. it doesn't matter by how much he losses states like California.) 2- While early vote turnout has been great in many states, Pennsylvanians have only cast 38% of the votes compared to the total amount of votes casted in 2016. Is that something Democrats should be worried about? --- Dp, Dp, he's the man, if he can't do it, no one can! Congrats on the guru victory, champ. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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GildedFool 11/01/20 1:29:20 PM #250: |
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LinkMarioSamus 11/01/20 1:53:42 PM #251: |
I'm pretty sure we've all taken into consideration how likely Trump is to win at certain percentages of the popular vote.
--- Anyone who thinks Rey is a Mary Sue is effectively a misogynist. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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