Board 8 > Biden | 40,962,735 | 57.64% | Trump | 27,258,817 | 38.36% [Ng Election Tracker!]

(+) Yeah! (+)

You would think people would notice Soros Force rolling out all these pallets last night

They wouldnt happen to be near construction sites would they?
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Yesmar_ posted...

Yes, Georgia. Known for their routine suppression of Republican voters over recent years.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skrdyoabmgA

Great video for today. Long live the Republic!

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If Ulti goes full meltdown to a point where it's hilarious at any point, someone let me know so I can temporarily unblock.

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The "I just got back from voting and also my nerves have been so wound up I literally didn't sleep last night so I'm about crash and I plan to try and wake up around the time polls close but if not see you on the other side and this might be the final update because honestly we're a bit late in the game now but maybe I'll do one last round up whenever I wake back up. also quality assurance was cancelled this post" update

(Updated through Post: 334-187 in Containment, 460 in Ngamer)

---Presidential---

Maps

xp: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ype8k
LotM: https://www.270towin.com/maps/JndLz
Dancedreamer: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pwy28
Xeybozn: https://www.270towin.com/maps/XwmOV
Suprak: https://www.270towin.com/maps/NJKy6
Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAw3e
red sox: https://www.270towin.com/maps/jV7zm
charmander: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Lkv9k
Chris: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJzBp
fuming: https://www.270towin.com/maps/gXObO
Ashethan: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ne1dY
Luster: https://www.270towin.com/maps/E0Prx
Inviso: https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJ32W
Crossfiyah: https://www.270towin.com/maps/vpzmw
Tony: https://www.270towin.com/maps/P0yX9
Moogle: https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJ2Jm
azuarc: https://www.270towin.com/maps/m2XOY
Pyro: https://www.270towin.com/maps/rnA3J
MikeTavish: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Wv0rg
ESY16: https://www.270towin.com/maps/e263n
ZeldaTPLink: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJjv3
neonreaper: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJkA3
masterplum: https://www.270towin.com/maps/m24Jv
Ulti: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJk2D
foolmo: https://www.270towin.com/maps/9J8ml
hockeydude: https://www.270towin.com/maps/YOZLo
changmas: https://www.270towin.com/maps/XplKz
sniperdog: https://www.270towin.com/maps/E0Prx
PrinceKaro: https://www.270towin.com/maps/j2Wke
meche: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJkA3
gravy: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZvyB0

~~~

By Margin

Biden

LotM: 413-125
MikeTavish: 395-143
masterplum: 388-150
foolmo: 368-170
Chris: 360-178
Crossfiyah: 360-178
PrinceKaro: 360-178
xp: 351-187
Pyro: 351-187
Xeybozn: 344-194
gravy: 336-202
ESY16: 335-203
hockeydude: 335-203
ZeldaTPLink: 321-217
Luster: 308-230
sniperdog: 308-230
Inviso: 305-233
azuarc: 299-239
Corrik: 290-248
Ashethan: 288-250
Tony: 281-257
Dancedreamer: 279-259
changmas: 274-264
charmander: 272-266
Suprak: 271-267
Moogle: 270-268
Ulti: 270-268
---
fuming: 269-269
---
neonreaper: 258-280
meche: 258-280
red sox: 252-286

Trump

~~~

Swing States/Districts (Ordered from most people picking Biden at the top to least. Only states where we had splits included. Hopefully I caught all the errors here!)

MN
Biden (30): xp, LotM, Dancerdreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, meche, gravy
Trump (1): Ulti

WI
Biden (29): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, meche, gravy
Trump (2): fuming, Tony

NV
Biden (28): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, meche, gravy
Trump (3): red sox, charmander, azuarc

PA
Biden (24): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Corrik, charmander, Chris, fuming, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, masterplum, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, gravy
Trump (7): Suprak, red sox, Ashethan, Moogle, neonreaper, changmas, meche

AZ
Biden (23): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, masterplum, foolmo, hockeydude, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, gravy
Trump (8): Dancedreamer, red sox, charmander, fuming, neonreaper, Ulti, changmas, meche

NE-2
Biden (21): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Crossfiyah, Tony, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, PrinceKaro, gravy
Trump (10): red sox, charmander, Luster, Inviso, Moogle, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, sniperdog, meche

ME-2
Biden (21): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Chris, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, masterplum, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, gravy
Trump (10): Dancedreamer, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, azuarc, neonreaper, changmas, meche

NC
Biden (15): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Chris, Inviso, Crossfiyah, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, masterplum, foolmo, changmas, PrinceKaro
Trump (16): Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Tony, Moogle, neonreaper, Ulti, hockeydude, sniperdog, meche, gravy

GA
Biden (10): xp, LotM, Chris, Crossfiyah, Pyro, MikeTavish, ZeldaTPLink, masterplum, PrinceKaro, gravy
Trump (21): Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, ESY16, neonreaper, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, sniperdog, meche

TX
Biden (9): LotM, Xeybozn, Chris, Crossfiyah, MikeTavish, masterplum, foolmo, hockeydude, PrinceKaro
Trump (22): xp, Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, Ulti, changmas, sniperdog, meche, gravy

FL
Biden (7): xp, LotM, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, masterplum, gravy
Trump (24): Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, Ulti, foolmo, hockeydude, changmas, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, meche

OH
Biden (5): LotM, Ashethan, Luster, foolmo, sniperdog
Trump (26): xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, MikeTavish, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, Ulti, hockeydude, changmas, PrinceKaro, meche, gravy

IA
Biden (4): LotM, MikeTavish, foolmo, hockeydude
Trump (27): xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso, Crossfiyah, Tony, Moogle, azuarc, Pyro, ESY16, ZeldaTPLink, neonreaper, masterplum, Ulti, changmas, sniperdog, PrinceKaro, meche, gravy

~~~

Senate

xp: https://www.270towin.com

UltimaterializerX posted...

The ones in Chicago and Denver especially dont look like construction sites but who really knows.

So the plan is to organize professional riots in heavily Democratic cities in blue states

That will show em

Like what are you even saying is the goal?
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Wow that wasnt even my bullish prediction (I'd take Iowa as D)

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Jakyl25 posted...

So the plan is to organize professional riots in heavily Democratic cities in blue states

That will show em

Like what are you even saying is the goal?

sounds like something someone who didnt like democratic cities in blue states would do rather than some left wing organized plot
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Jen Dillon (Bidens campaign manager) says they can hit 270 even without Florida, Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

Read into this however you want, but to me it says early numbers are atrocious for Biden. Well see!

NG we need a new topic.

HOW?!?

I mean, this is a crazy map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KXj2Z

and even with that it still doesn't get Trump to 270..

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Seanchan posted...

HOW?!?

I mean, this is a crazy map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KXj2Z

and even with that it still doesn't get Trump to 270..

That's for Biden, not Trump.

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red sox 777 posted...

That's for Biden, not Trump.

Ah well, never mind. I'm just an idiot who can't read sometimes ;)

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But uh, that's not something you want a campaign manager to be saying on election day. Florida they don't need but Biden's chances without Pennsylvania are pretty low.

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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323694397037432833

Is this the timeline with the most relatable Nate

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Why is everyone getting so worked up over this?
sure we all have an opinion or political leaning but we are all a single vote. Thats like losing sleep over your tickets to see a movie or something

red sox 777 posted...

But uh, that's not something you want a campaign manager to be saying on election day. Florida they don't need but Biden's chances without Pennsylvania are pretty low.

her statement is either positive or negative depending on how you want to see it

sure, it can be a sign of panic that theyre going to lose those states. It could also be a reassurance that they have so many safe states that we dont need to worry about losing in the states that are less certain.
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losing movie tickets is indeed the same as electing a president, yes

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Kureejii Lea posted...

Why is everyone getting so worked up over this?
sure we all have an opinion or political leaning but we are all a single vote. Thats like losing sleep over your tickets to see a movie or something

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Guys I got Trump in my bracket. Am I screwed?

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xp1337 posted...

The "I just got back from voting and also my nerves have been so wound up I literally didn't sleep last night so I'm about crash and I plan to try and wake up around the time polls close but if not see you on the other side and this might be the final update because honestly we're a bit late in the game now but maybe I'll do one last round up whenever I wake back up. also quality assurance was cancelled this post" update

It was when i saw this post that i realized i was on b8

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the worst thing is we can't necessarily use "fewer votes" as a comeback after results are in

the real reason to abolish the EC

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https://mobile.twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1323695517961015298?s=21

Hot take: Biden wins Florida convincingly and we are all asleep by 10:30 EST

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masterplum posted...

https://mobile.twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1323695517961015298?s=21

Hot take: Biden wins Florida convincingly and we are all asleep by 10:30 EST

That includes the mail in votes. I'd say that's quite good for Trump.

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red sox 777 posted...

That includes the mail in votes. I'd say that's quite good for Trump.

Independents and cross-over Rs both favor Biden based on polling.

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Crossfiyah posted...

Independents and cross-over Rs both favor Biden based on polling.

But Trump will keep gaining as more election day votes come in. It's 2 PM in Florida now? Trump shouldn't even be close yet given how big a lead Biden should have from the early votes.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

Civil unrest.

To accomplish what?
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Also I'll believe independents favor Biden by any significant margin when I see it.

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Current guru cookie:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/jjmmm

This time I've adjusted the pallets so only NC is showing as "lean red" since it's the one debatable match-up. The others are all hard blue or hard red. Either way it seems the B8 consensus is that Biden wins, but not by that much.

Ok, so I dug into that Florida data a bit. Last night, the final tally for mail and early voting before election day had just over 9 million votes. At that point, Democratic turnout had an advantage of 114k over Republican turnout. We've had just over 1 million election day votes reported so far (stats are probably lagging a little bit of time behind the current time), and Republican turnout is now 136k ahead. So Republicans gained 250k on election day so far, with that 1 million votes.

I wish we had trends like we do with the contests so we could tell how many more votes are going to be cast on election day and if there are any within-election-day trends. I'll estimate we've gotten through 40% of the election day votes and Republicans will pick up 375k more, which would leave them at about 510k ahead. If NPA votes break for Biden 55-45 that would be around 280k votes, reducing the lead to 230k. If Biden does 2% better with crossovers (margin) then that would be around 120k votes, leaving Trump 160k ahead. Which would be about 1.3%.


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https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Good job to Florida for making their data accessible! I guess they learned from 2000 and have made their counting process much better.

I had been reading reports that Republicans were doing well in Miami but this sort of drives this home. Hillary won Miami-Dade 63-33 in 2016 (65% of Trump/Clinton votes). Dems are only at 61% of Dem/Rep votes so far with the mail in and early voting. Election day stats they just released show the Dems only getting about 53% of the Dem/Rep votes on election day. So even assuming the NPA votes favor Biden by 10 points and crossover votes favor him by 2 points, Trump is probably doing 6-7% or so better in Miami than in 2016.

This was predicted by the polls showing Trump running stronger with minorities and weaker with white people than in 2016 so I expect he'll do worse in other parts of the state in 2016. But improving by 6 in Miami should make the Florida result pretty safe. I feel good about my Trump +2 Florida prediction.

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Your problem is you're conflating Hillary's margin with party identification.

If Indepedents break for Biden 49-41 he's outperforming her margin.

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My numbers are based on independents breaking 55-45 for Biden.

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Your numbers seem really off then or assume literally no R crossover.

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https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1323695517961015298?s=21

Here are the most up-to-date numbers I was able to find by turnout of party identification

GOP: 3,946,914 (+136,649)
Dem: 3,810,265
NPA/Other: 2,358,054

TOTAL: 10,115,233 across FL.

Per my understanding of polling averages of R crossover and NPA lean, GOP needs a +400k margin lead to survive the final numbers. And they're stuck at less than half that.


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Not going to lie, red sox has been scaring me into thinking Trump is going to win the whole election, at least to a greater extent than I did before these few days. It might just be election day anxiety talking though. Mean no offense to red sox.

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Crossfiyah posted...

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1323695517961015298?s=21

Here are the most up-to-date numbers I was able to find by turnout of party identification

GOP: 3,946,914 (+136,649)
Dem: 3,810,265
NPA/Other: 2,358,054

TOTAL: 10,115,233 across FL.

Per my understanding of polling averages of R crossover and NPA lean, GOP needs a +400k margin lead to survive the final numbers. And they're stuck at less than half that.

Yes, my calculations are based on the assumption that they need a 400kish margin. But they've gained 250k this morning, with what I am estimating to be 40% of the election day vote. So they can be expected to pick up another 375k by the times polls close. That's because a lot more Democrats voted by mail.

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red sox 777 posted...

Yes, my calculations are based on the assumption that they need a 400kish margin. But they've gained 250k this morning, with what I am estimating to be 40% of the election day vote. So they can be expected to pick up another 375k by the times polls close. That's because a lot more Democrats voted by mail.

Not necessarily...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323716735451758597

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The party identification in FL has grown MORE D since this morning by day-of vote, not less. How do you figure that?

Example, Broward county:

From 7am to 1030am, the vote was D38/R34/I28 (D +4)

From 1030 to 1230pm, it was D39/R31/I31 (D +8)

From 1230 to 3pm, it was D37/R26/I37 (D +11)

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All these early-vote-by-party analyses are completely pointless, the NPA vote is what's going to decide this thing.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Not going to lie, red sox has been scaring me into thinking Trump is going to win the whole election, at least to a greater extent than I did before these few days. It might just be election day anxiety talking though. Mean no offense to red sox.

Considering I won* the Board 8 prediction contest in 2016 that's reasonable.

But! Supposing I'm right (and this is much harder to forecast than Gamefaqs contest trends where have past data to guide us - I feel like I'm shooting blind here by comparison), these numbers are only for Florida. Trump was already the favorite there. It doesn't mean a lot for the rest of the country.

*I'm not 100% certain I got first. Possibly I got 2nd. Either way, I had 48/50.

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Crossfiyah posted...

All these early-vote-by-party analyses are completely pointless, the NPA vote is what's going to decide this thing.

tl;dr: as in all things, wait until the kiddies come home and the ASV hits

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Crossfiyah posted...

The party identification in FL has grown MORE D since this morning by day-of vote, not less. How do you figure that?

Example, Broward county:

From 7am to 1030am, the vote was D38/R34/I28 (D +4)

From 1030 to 1230pm, it was D39/R31/I31 (D +8)

From 1230 to 3pm, it was D37/R26/I37 (D +11)

These are numbers just for that time period, not cumulative. So it means the GOP vote was strongest in the morning and weaker in the afternoon. But even the afternoon is still better than the vote by mail numbers, so you'll still see GOP gains, just at a lower clip than the morning.

But yes, that's the kind of intraday trend data I don't have. If those are the trends, it looks somewhat better for the Dems than I was projecting earlier.

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Not sure by which metric you decide Trump's the favorite in Florida either.

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