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TopicBiden | 40,962,735 | 57.64% | Trump | 27,258,817 | 38.36% [Ng Election Tracker!]
Ngamer64
11/01/20 1:51:27 AM
#243:


Today we saw mail in ballots finally start to taper off while in-person voting continued at a strong pace across the country. As a result the incoming votes were down slightly and also, Trump posted his best result of the election season so far. Could this be turning into a real contest? Let's check the numbers!

Results From The Last 24 Hours
New Votes Cast 4,240,331
Biden Votes (estimated) 2,040,778
Trump Votes (estimated) 1,975,103

Joe once again comes out on top, but this time by a margin of only 65,676 votes. This also means that despite the lower volume of new ballots, Trump was able to manage a respectable 0.71% cut to the overall percentage. That all sounds like fairly good news for him, but let's take a look at the bigger picture.

The new overall tally comes to
92,038,417 Total Early Votes Cast
(66.8% of 2016's total)

51,602,439 Biden Votes (estimated)
36,571,709 Trump Votes (estimated)
15,030,731 Current Lead (estimated)

56.07% Biden Total Percentage (estimated)
39.74% Trump Total Percentage (estimated)
16.33% Current Lead (estimated)

Okay so it wasn't Biden's best day, but if you'd told his campaign a month ago he'd have an advantage of well over 16 percentage points and a lead that just cracked 15 million heading into Election Day, they would have been beyond thrilled!

Honestly I think you can chalk this performance up to a lack of faith in the United States Postal Service, first and foremost. The most dedicated Democrats or Biden fans sent their ballots early, and now everyone who supports him but didn't get on the ball early is being told "it's too late to mail your ballot!" and many of them are probably planning to just vote on November 3rd instead.

If that's the case though, it does creates a real possibility of Trump winning outright tomorrow. Will we see it? Stay tuned!

Before Trump fans get too excited though, it should be noted that today's much better showing still wasn't enough to change the math where it matters most. He's still way behind overall and now there are only 58 million votes left to be cast, meaning he'll need a full 63% of all ballots the rest of the way (up from 62.1% yesterday). Not impossible, but still hugely unlikely.

In state news, no one else crossed the 100% mark today in terms of reaching 2016's final tally, but we might see two or even three more states accomplish that achievement on Sunday.

More details as always in the sheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing

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