Board 8 > Biden | 40,962,735 | 57.64% | Trump | 27,258,817 | 38.36% [Ng Election Tracker!]

(+) Yeah! (+)

UltimaterializerX posted...

You know nothing whatsoever about the gaming industry and it shows.

Yeah bro, people totally stop all contact with oddsmaking sources after they resign. Like my aunt is the literal president of multiple Wynn properties. Dudes like him, even after they leave, are who she goes to when setting odds and house rates. When I say they have better metrics than the feds, its not a joke.

Did you honestly think all of my called it moments over the years were pulled out of thin air?

Given how you make calls on both sides of every coin toss, yes, I do think that.

Also, my point was that I'd believe an oddsmaker, acting in his capacity as an oddsmaker (when being accurate affects his livelihood) far more easily than a conservative pundit whose livelihood depends on him saying things to appeal to conservative voters.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

Yeah bro, people totally stop all contact with oddsmaking sources after they resign.

Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that he has an inherent bias based on where he works now. Do you think reporting a predicted Trump loss would be good for business?

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No matter how good things look for Biden, we should not let our guard so easily. Go out and vote like your lives depend on it because it actually does.

masterplum posted...

Did I get ignored by para or does quoting someone ignored not show it.

if the first, lol ok

The latter

Hmmm good point Luster. Okay if we get a true 1v1 on the front page I'll go with

Biden - 72.71%


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UltimaterializerX posted...

Find me the last Fox News poll that showed Trump ahead nationally.

Fox News has to put up a veneer of being independent. This guy doesn't.

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Sorozone posted...

I think he has officially joined.

Yes, the Biden Crew has some big last second pickups in

Eminem
Jay-Z
Beyonc

Was surprised they weren't on the list last week!

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well, it's clear who's getting the better rappers, at least.

eminem and jay-z versus... lil wayne and lil pump. lol

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LeonhartFour posted...

sounds like we need to have an Oracle Challenge topic and a Prophet's Challenge topic

ask and ye shall receive

Cross-posted from what I compiled in the containment topic:

---Presidential---

Maps

xp: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ype8k
LotM: https://www.270towin.com/maps/JndLz
Dancedreamer: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pwy28
Xeybozn: https://www.270towin.com/maps/XwmOV
Suprak: https://www.270towin.com/maps/NJKy6
Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAw3e
red sox: https://www.270towin.com/maps/jV7zm

~~~

By Margin

Biden

LotM: 413-125
xp: 351-187
Xeybozn: 344-194
Corrik: 290-248
Dancedreamer: 279-259
Suprak: 271-267
---
red sox: 252-286

Trump

~~~

Swing States/Districts (Ordered from most people picking Biden at the top to least. Only states where we had splits included. Hopefully I caught all the errors here!)

NV
Biden: xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik
Trump: red sox

NE-2
Biden: xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik
Trump: red sox

PA
Biden: xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Corrik
Trump: Suprak, red sox

AZ
Biden: xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik
Trump: Dancedreamer, red sox

ME-2
Biden: xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak
Trump: Dancedreamer, Corrik, red sox

NC
Biden: xp, LotM, Xeybozn
Trump: Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

FL
Biden: xp, LotM
Trump: Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

GA
Biden: xp, LotM
Trump: Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

TX
Biden: LotM, Xeybozn
Trump: xp, Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

IA
Biden: LotM
Trump: xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

OH
Biden: LotM
Trump: xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

~~~

Senate

xp: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/qyYBRq
Suprak: +3 net for Dems (-AL, +CO, AZ, ME, NC)

~~~

House

xp: +13 net for Dems.
Suprak: "About the same. Maybe loss of one or two seats."

---

https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJzBp

Just to get in on it.

---

https://www.270towin.com/maps/gXObO

My prediction.

Chaos Edition

https://www.270towin.com/maps/yeQVk

---

https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJDJ9

The Truth

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

Chaos Edition

https://www.270towin.com/maps/yeQVk

I DIDNT SEE THIS WHEN I MADE MINE

FUCK

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nfun, i appreciate your recognition that even then DC holds

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NFUN posted...

https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJDJ9

The Truth

Image is too cursed and wont open on my browser.

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xp1337 posted...

nfun, i appreciate your recognition that even then DC holds

yeah man I'm not crazy or something

---

And in case anyone thinks my prediction is a joke, it isn't. It's probably a very bad prediction method, because it's doubtful that things shake out exactly the same as in 2016, but a day or two ago I made the map by comparing the average polling on RCP for 2020 with how far off the results were from the polling in 2016. So not really a joke as much as a curiosity but I'm sticking by it.

fuming posted...

I made the map by comparing the average polling on RCP for 2020 with how far off the results were from the polling in 2016.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323470612367626240?s=19

---

My insanely stupid prediction

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ne1dY

Come at the King, you best not miss. (Yes, I'm picking Ohio for Biden because Trump insulted LeBron)

---

UshiromiyaEva posted...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323470612367626240?s=19

Hmm I wonder if that poll would effect the outcome with my method. I'm too lazy to look into it, but I do wonder!

My Electoral College prediction that has Biden winning without needing Florida on his side:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/E0Prx

It involves Biden getting Arizona, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
---

My prediction:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJ32W

---

No presidential election PotD today. Maybe there's still a possible chance that Allen runs a second poll later today.
---

wow tons of maps came in so here have a slightly-belated Election Day Midnight Special Update:

(Updated through Post: 334-92 in Containment, 381 in Ngamer)

---Presidential---

Maps

xp: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ype8k
LotM: https://www.270towin.com/maps/JndLz
Dancedreamer: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pwy28
Xeybozn: https://www.270towin.com/maps/XwmOV
Suprak: https://www.270towin.com/maps/NJKy6
Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAw3e
red sox: https://www.270towin.com/maps/jV7zm
charmander: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Lkv9k
Chris: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJzBp
fuming: https://www.270towin.com/maps/gXObO
Ashethan: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ne1dY
Luster: https://www.270towin.com/maps/E0Prx
Inviso: https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJ32W

~~~

By Margin

Biden

LotM: 413-125
Chris: 360-178
xp: 351-187
Xeybozn: 344-194
Luster: 308-230
Inviso: 305-233
Corrik: 290-248
Ashethan: 288-250
Dancedreamer: 279-259
charmander: 272-266
Suprak: 271-267
---
fuming: 269-269
---
red sox: 252-286

Trump

~~~

Swing States/Districts (Ordered from most people picking Biden at the top to least. Only states where we had splits included. Hopefully I caught all the errors here!)

WI
Biden (12): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso
Trump (1): fuming

NV
Biden (11): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso
Trump (2): red sox, charmander

PA
Biden (10): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Corrik, charmander, Chris, fuming, Luster, Inviso
Trump (3): Suprak, red sox, Ashethan

NE-2
Biden (9): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, fuming, Ashethan
Trump (4): red sox, charmander, Luster, Inviso

AZ
Biden (9): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso
Trump (4): Dancedreamer, red sox, charmander, fuming

ME-2
Biden (7): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Chris, Luster, Inviso
Trump (6): Dancedreamer, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan

NC
Biden (5): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Chris, Inviso
Trump (8): Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster

GA
Biden (3): xp, LotM, Chris
Trump (10): Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso

TX
Biden (3): LotM, Xeybozn, Chris
Trump (10): xp, Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso

OH
Biden (3): LotM, Ashethan, Luster
Trump (10): xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Inviso

FL
Biden (2): xp, LotM
Trump (11): Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso

IA
Biden (1): LotM
Trump (12): xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso

~~~

Senate

xp: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/qyYBRq [50-48-2 runoffs]
Suprak: +3 net for Dems (-AL, +CO, AZ, ME, NC) [50-50]
LotM: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5nQ22M [54-46]
Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5XL9L5 [50-50; Clarified that WV for Dems was an error]

~~~

House

xp: +13 net for Dems.
Suprak: +2 net for Republicans

---

UltimaterializerX posted...

Biden is not winning Ohio. The team stopped spending money there awhile ago because they full well know it. Ditto for Iowa.

Biden just campaigned in Cleveland within the last day or two I'm pretty sure.

---

These are not the FINAL final numbers, posting this a little earlier because it's a huge day tomorrow and I need to get to sleep at a reasonable hour for the first time in a week. (I'm thinking this board can relate to staying up too late refreshing & discussing poll results!) Hopefully I'll get a chance to post the absolute final stats sometime tomorrow, but no promises. Regardless, let's see how the candidates did on their last full day of Early Voting...

Results From The Last 24 Hours
New Votes Cast 4,796,419
Biden Votes (estimated) 2,532,101
Trump Votes (estimated) 2,032,655

Mercy, what a beatdown! With most In-Person voting having closed down (only about 1 million new ballots arrived) and the mail ballots catching up from yesterday, Biden went wild and extended his lead by a further 499,446 votes. One notable observation: more Democrats submitted an In-Person vote today than Republicans for the first time this cycle! Fortunately for Trump he did a little better (proportionally) with the mail ballots and was able to manage a percentage cut as a result, but it was only a miniscule 0.28%.

Our new So Close To Final tally is
98,802,580 Total Early Votes Cast
(71.7% of 2016's total)

55,121,614 Biden Votes (estimated)
39,484,240 Trump Votes (estimated)
15,637,374 Current Lead (estimated)

55.79% Biden Total Percentage (estimated)
39.96% Trump Total Percentage (estimated)
15.83% Current Lead (estimated)

When absolutely everything is tallied I'm expecting an Early Vote total of about 101 million and a Biden lead of 15.75 million or so.

Based on what we see now though... yikes, what an insane run Trump will have to go on! After the huge votals in the last day he's now looking at needing 65.3% of the Election Day vote. Maybe that doesn't sound sooooo bad, until you consider it mean defeating Biden by 30.6% over the course of the next 24 hours- and swinging the overall race to this point by over 46 percentage points!

(Those numbers are based on the original 150 million votes estimate, if we're more generous and extend it out to 160, Trump still needs 63%.)

Moving on to states, congratulations to

Washington
Montana

For joining Texas and Hawaii in passing their 2016 totals entirely through early voting! There are a further 7 states that might join them when the final tally is completed.

For more details, hit the sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing

Okay B8 that's all from me, all that's left now is to vote vote vote if you haven't already! (Oh and be sure to scroll up for my Election Night Viewing Guide if you missed it.)

---

Here's my map:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/P0yX9

281-257 for Biden, AKA basically one state decides it, Michigan or PA

---

ok here is my official prediction

https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJ2Jm

its just Lusters minus OH and PA because that gives the closest possible margin without being a tie and Im preparing myself for this to be a nightmare
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MoogleKupo141 posted...

ok here is my official prediction

https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJ2Jm

its just Lusters minus OH and PA because that gives the closest possible margin without being a tie and Im preparing myself for this to be a nightmare

The "prepare for boogaloo Edition"

---

https://www.270towin.com/maps/m2XOY

299-239
Arizona, PA, and North Carolina

---

https://www.270towin.com/maps/jV7zm

Trump 286
Biden 252

Biden +3 popular vote

---

https://www.270towin.com/maps/rnA3J

Basically, I'm just doing what FiveThirtyEight currently has. It makes sense to me. Florida is always iffy though.

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How do those 270 to win maps even work?

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

How do those 270 to win maps even work?

Just click on the share map button when you're done your prediction and copy/paste the link. It will appear when you start changing things below the reset map button.

---

An overly hopeful map from a Canadian:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Wv0rg

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MikeTavish posted...

An overly hopeful map from a Canadian:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Wv0rg

I too am Canadian. My map is just average though. I hope yours is more accurate.

---

I might change these when I wake up, but for now:

Senate: Exact same as xp
House: Dems +15
President: https://www.270towin.com/maps/e263n

---

I don't know jack about USA geography, but this sounds fun!

Besides last contest I had only played 6 of the games in the list, so imma just do the classical methods for building brackets: listen to Board 8! (and 538, etc)

https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJjv3

It's the 538 cookie, minus Florida and also threw a red on Nebraska 2 to make an unique bracket. Gotta love those debated 1 point matches!

Florida is the Cecil Harvey of US elections, from what I've heard.

Florida is the embodiment of Chaotic Neutral-leaning-Evil in US Elections.

~~~

It's been referenced a few times what the 538 "cookie" is but I actually went and made a map of it using their polling averages for each state (and district for ME/NE) for the Containment topic a few hours ago. Dunno if anyone here is interested in it.

270towin map using 538's polling averages: https://www.270towin.com/maps/P0yJQ

Scale:
Lead: < 3% = Tilt [Leader]
Lead: [3.0, 5.9] = Lean
Lead: [6.0, 9.9] = Likely
Lead: >= 10 = Safe

Notes: Nebraska's 1st District has a single poll of Trump+2 so I had no choice to roll with that. NE-3 on the other hand is the only place with zero polls so I just manually made it Safe R because it absolutely is.

Note 2: This is slightly different than 538's forecast model though they are obviously very similar in nature. I haven't checked to see if the forecast actually moves anything around in terms of the shading categories I created and don't really care to since this is more of a "just for reference" thing.

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This is the map I hope for: https://www.270towin.com/maps/0DOnP

This is the map I fear: https://www.270towin.com/maps/1xOv7

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Is this our new guru

https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJkA3

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neonreaper posted...

Is this our new guru

https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJkA3

Ooooh a non-Link bracket!

https://www.270towin.com/maps/m24Jv

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