Board 8 > Biden | 40,962,735 | 57.64% | Trump | 27,258,817 | 38.36% [Ng Election Tracker!]

(+) Yeah! (+)

I hear trump has the after school vote.

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This country has lost all of its credibility.

Trump: "There goes ballot"

LinkMarioSamus posted...

20% is the maximum chance Trump has of winning, and it's probably closer to 10%.

I'd say the maximum chance he had to win in 2016 was 40%. Obviously he did, but it was merely unlikely as opposed to flat-out long odds.

do you not know how probabilities work?

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NFUN posted...

do you not know how probabilities work?

I think he is implying no one knows for sure which are the right probabilities, since each model has different ones.

I'm not American so I don't understand how registered Democrat / Republican voters work. Does that mean if someone is registered to a particular party, they must vote for their party's candidate no matter what? Or do they still get a choice, it's just that they would almost certainly vote for their party's candidate?

you can vote for any party no matter how you are registered

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Probabilties change depending on new data received.

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GavsEvans123 posted...

I'm not American so I don't understand how registered Democrat / Republican voters work. Does that mean if someone is registered to a particular party, they must vote for their party's candidate no matter what? Or do they still get a choice, it's just that they would almost certainly vote for their party's candidate?

For some states you have to register for a party to vote for that party's primary. As far as I know, beyond that it's just an organizational tool to help party leadership and others keep track of how people are likely (but not guaranteed) to vote, and to get you on mailing lists and stuff.

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I worked it out based on NGamer's spreadsheet and assuming an EC breakeven point at Biden +3, Trump indeed needs to win a little over 59% of the remaining votes to make that up. But the spreadsheet is still using the old projection of total votes of 150 million rather than 162 million. With the higher projection, Trump's needed percentage would be about 57.5%.

I'm not sure I buy that 162 million projection, actually. I think election day turnout might not be as high as expected, maybe low enough for us to undershoot that original 150 million prediction for the total, but I do expect Trump to win the election day vote pretty hard.

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Pardon my ignorance here but this entire tally in the opening post is just a guess ?

Btw there's polling showing Biden killing it in swing states with 2016 non-voters.

If that's true, the rout is on.

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TheRock1525 posted...

Btw there's polling showing Biden killing it in swing states with 2016 non-voters.

If that's true, the rout is on.

THAT part makes sense. I'd have to assume that the percentage of non-voters in 2016 who've looked at the last four years and thought "wow, kicking myself for not backing this stud four years ago - MORE OF THIS" is low as fuck.

It's the voter suppression, invalidation of mail in ballots, pre-emptive declaration of victory, and the encouragement of intimidation/violence that most worry me.

I mean, even if things go Biden's way with a relatively "clean" electoral collage result tomorrow night, I'm still assuming that Trump's rhetoric is gonna get people killed.

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Honestly, I think the MAGA movement is largely bluster. They yell and scream and claim they're gonna secede if Trump loses but honestly they're just mostly whiners who are happier complaining about the government anyway.

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And the key is that while there's more enthusiasm among Republicans than 2016, it doesn't appear to be driving new voters, it's just largely among those who were always going to vote.

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I would think that, but they gather in force, with weapons, and the cops don't even stand around them looking intimidating. Probably because they're already there out of uniform.

TheRock1525 posted...

Btw there's polling showing Biden killing it in swing states with 2016 non-voters.

If that's true, the rout is on.

Could you please link the poll(s) showing this? Thanks.

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PerfectChaosZ posted...

I would think that, but they gather in force, with weapons, and the cops don't even stand around them looking intimidating. Probably because they're already there out of uniform.

They're honestly more like that racist fuck Muffin loves, who ran crying when an arrest warrant was put out for him.

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Scared people kill the most.

azuarc posted...

Oh, I'm definitely not counting on Florida -- I'm old enough to have voted in the '00 election -- but it would be a death knell to the Trump campaign if it goes the other way.

It is certainly the first state we will see results from that could be really important. I agree. If trump loses Florida it's over

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TheRock1525 posted...

They're honestly more like that racist fuck Muffin loves, who ran crying when an arrest warrant was put out for him.

it's funny because on cantwell's youtube channel, he would always rant about how much he hated men who were "effeminate fucking pussies."

projceting much?

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TheRock1525 posted...

Honestly, I think the MAGA movement is largely bluster. They yell and scream and claim they're gonna secede if Trump loses but honestly they're just mostly whiners who are happier complaining about the government anyway.

It's also probably not that large of a force.

Sure, it's 75M people, but over half of them are 50+ and not going to do a thing if trump loses, other then whine.

And then the other half who would maybe do something, half of them aren't gonna do anything either.

You'd be lucky if 15M people across the country did anything other then talk

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I mean it's like all the people who said they were leaving if Trump won in 2016. I doubt very many people actually followed through on that.

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banananor posted...

this is the super optimistic projection. technically still possible in the timeline where there's somehow a reverse embarrassed trump voter phenomenon.

in reality, there's no way ohio is going blue. I used to imagine the state as perfectly average america, but there's something off about it. georgia is plausible. texas would be possible but i think will ultimately succumb to the power of voter suppression. florida is eternally disappointing.

i'd be ecstatic to be wrong!

Its actually only slightly optimistic (if you believe 538). It would only require a uniform polling error of >=1.6% in Bidens favor!

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You don't need millions of people for pockets of organized violence to break out. That isn't what the worry is.

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TheRock1525 posted...

And the key is that while there's more enthusiasm among Republicans than 2016, it doesn't appear to be driving new voters, it's just largely among those who were always going to vote.

This is the vibe I have gotten, but who knows?

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https://xkcd.com/2380/

homework for you if you wanna help push your candidate more

Ngamer64 posted...

And while Eminem hasn't officially endorsed, he's been very active in getting Michigan to vote over the last couple months and we all know he despises Trump, so he can be an honorary member of the BC.

I think he has officially joined.

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`Nothing else matters like the poll question "Are you better off than four years ago?"`

How does that question even work during a pandemic? Like say a person was much better off before the pandemic took off and likely will be better off after it all ends. If you asked at either of those points, they could give a confident yes. But, in the middle of the pandemic? It feels like the vast majority of those people should be answering no right now. I don't even mean this as a shot at Trump. It just doesn't seem like a fair question to me and the high rate of "yes" answers seems nonsensical to me.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

`Nothing else matters like the poll question "Are you better off than four years ago?"`

How does that question even work during a pandemic? Like say a person was much better off before the pandemic took off and likely will be better off after it all ends. If you asked at either of those points, they could give a confident yes. But, in the middle of the pandemic? It feels like the vast majority of those people should be answering no right now. I don't even mean this as a shot at Trump. It just doesn't seem like a fair question to me and the high rate of "yes" answers seems nonsensical to me.

It's always a terrible question in regards to who you should vote for. Its utility is in analyzing who people will vote for

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A stroke of luck for Trump- nearly perfect voting weather across the country tomorrow.

Only exceptions are a little rain in the Pacific Northwest (of course) and 10 degrees below normal with a possible dusting of snow in New England.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

https://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2020/11/01/las-vegas-oddsmaker-announces-final-prediction-trump-electoral-landslide-coming-n2579146

UH OH

Pack it up boys, its over. No point in even voting because trafalger says so.

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masterplum posted...

Pack it up boys, its over. No point in even voting because trafalger says so.

Well, since you put it that way - I bet a not insignificant amount of liberals are going to not bother voting because the polls have Biden up by a lot. Whereas even the most conservative polls are showing a close election.

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red sox 777 posted...

Well, since you put it that way - I bet a not insignificant amount of liberals are going to not bother voting because the polls have Biden up by a lot. Whereas even the most conservative polls are showing a close election.

Literally zero chance this happens after 2016. None.

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red sox 777 posted...

Well, since you put it that way - I bet a not insignificant amount of liberals are going to not bother voting because the polls have Biden up by a lot. Whereas even the most conservative polls are showing a close election.

"Remember 2016? No lead is safe." I've seen opinions like that going around both from Trump and Biden supporters. So while complacency is a thing, it feels like many Biden supporters are happy to run up the score just in case.
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Biden has to hold all his states and also get WI, MI, and PA to reach 276. To even get 280 he needs to win a traditionally Republican state. If 280 were the threshold need to avoid going to the House, Trump would be looking pretty good I think.

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I'm thinking that anyone who starts their article off with

It's all there. All the cards fell into place. Liberals and the biased and bribed mainstream media are just too blind to see it.

Is likely not a completely unbiased source in this

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red sox 777 posted...

I bet a not insignificant amount of liberals are going to not bother voting because the polls have Biden up by a lot.

I can only speak for myself but as somebody who went third party in 2016 on that logic, I am about as far from complacent as I can get this time.

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Quick point on that article, but he calls himself a Las Vegas oddsmaker-turned conservative talk show host, not a CURRENT Las Vegas oddsmaker. I would take his opinion (which the article is labeled as such, on a website that lists a sidebar article of "What is George Soros' Plan B If Biden Loses?") more seriously if his financial well-being and the accuracy of his CURRENT job relied on him being right in this instance.

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Inviso posted...

Quick point on that article, but he calls himself a Las Vegas oddsmaker-turned conservative talk show host, not a CURRENT Las Vegas oddsmaker. I would take his opinion (which the article is labeled as such, on a website that lists a sidebar article of "What is George Soros' Plan B If Biden Loses?") more seriously if his financial well-being and the accuracy of his CURRENT job relied on him being right in this instance.

What article? Oh no, did someone post something stupid

In less than 5 hours from now, we should end up getting a presidential election PotD on GameFAQs. Which means it's time to discuss that.

Luster Soldier's Analysis

11/3/2020 - Who do you most want to win today's US presidential election?

Back in 2016, I tried to predict the results of this poll, but that was based on the assumption that it would be a 1v1 poll. Instead of getting a 1v1 poll for the 2016 election, Allen tossed in several third-party candidates plus a joke option in Giant Meteor. The 2020 poll should be a return to the 1v1 format we had for 2012, partly because the third-party vote will be much smaller this time around and Joe Biden is nowhere near Hillary Clinton's level of unpopularity.

For the 2016 poll, I predicted Hillary Clinton with 67.74%. The final result ended up with Hillary Clinton with just 61.17% on Donald Trump directly, so I was off by nearly 7% there. However, Giant Meteor really complicates matters here as I feel the joke option clearly picked off a lot of potential Hillary Clinton votes where as Trump's 18.71% in the 2016 poll is probably an accurate measure of what he gets in a straight 1v1 poll. I would even go as far to say that Giant Meteor LFFed Hillary Clinton in that poll, as it is the only plausible explanation for Trump doing as well as he did on Hillary.

One notable change since 2012 is that the site's userbase has continued to get older based on the age polls. As of right now, the site's average user age should be around 34. At least in the US, many people do move farther to the right (more conservative) as they get older, but I have not seen any evidence of it taking place among the GameFAQs userbase yet. Even then, someone like Donald Trump isn't the type of Republican that would benefit from this site's changing age demographics in the first place.

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Joe Biden - 79.22%
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Everyone's said "Election Night 2020 will be like nothing we've ever seen!" but what does that really MEAN? Let's attempt to clear things up with the

Official Ngamer 2020 Election Viewing Guide

Step One - Beware the Blue Mirage!

Some important (and sensible) states were allowed to start doing an official count of their early votes over the weekend, which likely means they will be close to having a full tally to put online as soon as their polls close. Since the early voting swung so far Democratic across the board, that means these states will almost certainly start off looking super duper blue- but if you're a Biden fan, don't get too excited! The results will start swinging in Trump's favor as the county by county Election Day vote rolls in over the course of the next several hours.

States this applies to:
Florida
North Carolina
Texas
Ohio
Iowa
Nevada

Step Two - Beware the Red Mirage!

For some (incredibly dumb) reason, some important states aren't allowed to start doing an official count of their early votes until their Election Day polls have closed. Since the in person Election Day voting is likely to swing so far Republican across the board, that means these states will almost certainly start off looking super duper red- but if you're a Trump fan, don't get too excited! The results will start swinging in Biden's favor as the county by county Early Vote count rolls in over the course of the evening (and into the next day... and the day after that, and possibly another week or two).

States this applies to:
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Minnesota

Step Three - Beware Everything!

In some important states, there's no universal rule on when early ballots can be counted and when they should start being reported. Watch out for violent swings in these states, as they might drop the Mail In totals all at once and completely swing the results, or they might come in county by county for a smooth transition depending on how red or blue that area was. There's just no telling.

States this applies to:
Georgia
Arizona

Step Four - Be Prepared To Wait!

Usually we expect a winner to be announced before we head to bed on Tuesday. (Well, night owls do, not so much East Coast early risers.) That's going to be very unlikely tomorrow! Because of the unique situation regarding the pandemic and how states all tally a little differently, plus the fact that some states are woefully unprepared to count through their millions of early votes (because they usually only get a hundred thousand), we're going to need to be patient and wait for full state by state results after every vote is counted. This process is likely to take days, possibly all week, and maybe even all month.

Just hang in there!

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Thanks, Luster.

Ill guess Biden 65-70%

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sounds like we need to have an Oracle Challenge topic and a Prophet's Challenge topic

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Did I get ignored by para or does quoting someone ignored not show it.

if the first, lol ok

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masterplum posted...

Did I get ignored by para or does quoting someone ignored not show it.

if the first, lol ok

The latter.

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