Board 8 > Biden | 40,962,735 | 57.64% | Trump | 27,258,817 | 38.36% [Ng Election Tracker!]

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Ngamer64
10/28/20 3:59:39 AM
#1:


You might have heard some stats about 2020's early voting, like how 58 million Americans (a record) voted early in 2016 but we're already up to 71.1 million this year, which is over 51% of 2016's total. And how some key battleground states like Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia are on pace to pass their 2016 totals before Election Day even arrives.

But for some reason no one is using those numbers to estimate the current actual results, so I decided to do it myself, GameFAQs Contest poll update-style! Here's the sheet, which I'll be keeping up to date on a nightly basis:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing

Based on the best polling data available of registered voters who said they were planning to vote, the current standings are

40,962,735 Biden Votes (estimated)
27,258,817 Trump Votes (estimated)
13,703,918 Current Lead (estimated)

In terms of percentages, we're looking at

57.64% Biden Total Percentage (estimated)
38.36% Trump Total Percentage (estimated)
19.28% Current Lead (estimated)

So as you see, Biden's lead is just under 14 million. If 150 million Americans end up voting this year (keep in mind we've never cracked 137 mil in any election before so that would be pretty wild), Trump needs to win 58.7% of all remaining voters to come out ahead, aka he needs to win the rest of the way by 17.4% overall.

Why does he need to mount such a comeback? Well, he's spent the last six months bashing mail in ballots, so his most loyal supporters are waiting to cast their votes in person on Tuesday, hoping to dig him out of the huge hole he's created. Beyond that though, Trump's got two problems- Biden's chipped away juuuuuuust enough of his normally loyal fanbase (getting 90.4% of registered Republicans to Joe's 94.1% registered Democrats) and unlike in 2016, Independents aren't buying what he's selling (loses by 15.2% with them versus Biden).
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* Caveats!
  • unlike GameFAQs Character Battles, this election won't be decided by popular vote! Trump only needs to take his margin from the 19.3% he's currently facing down to 2 or 3% and he'll be in good shape to win the Electoral College (as we saw in 2016, when he lost overall by 2.1%)
  • if Biden can keep the margin above 8%, a Trump EC victory is almost mathematically impossible. anything in the 3 to 7% range is likely a Biden win, but there are some (improbable) scenarios where Trump could still win the EC from that range
  • the 48 million mail in ballots you see on the sheet have been received and are ready to be counted, but haven't been tallied yet. it's possible that judges in hotly contested states could throw our millions of them by saying they weren't completed properly, for instance because the signature doesn't match what's on file
  • the registered voter preference percentages were taken from the latest, most highly-regarded nationwide poll, which was conducted earlier this month. still, they have a margin of error of 3.2%... and obviously preferences could change based on any kind of breaking news as we get closer to election day
  • (honestly though I trust those numbers as they're close to what we've seen in dozens of polls over the last couple months, and there's only a small sliver of the country who could still be persuaded to change their vote. also as we've gone over, a huge chunk of the votes have already been locked in and can no longer be switched, so there's going to be less last minute movement than we've ever seen before)



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CaptainOfCrush
10/28/20 12:53:07 PM
#2:


Great work Ng! I assume we'll get mail-in vs in-person voting breakdowns after the elections, so it'll be very interesting to compare your predictions with the hard data.

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Steiner
10/28/20 12:54:04 PM
#3:


can't stomach seeing that ASV come in

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Reg
10/28/20 12:55:20 PM
#4:


Ngamer64 posted...
key battleground states like Texas

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charmander6000
10/28/20 12:58:01 PM
#5:


Don't mail-in ballots get counted last in the United States? With the huge difference we could see Trump victory on election day only for Biden to come back later.

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ViolentAbacus
10/28/20 1:16:01 PM
#6:


charmander6000 posted...
Don't mail-in ballots get counted last in the United States? With the huge difference we could see Trump victory on election day only for Biden to come back later.


It depends on where you live. Where I work we count the mail ins as we receive them. And we're going to count them until the 6th for any stragglers.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/23/926258497/when-will-mail-in-ballots-be-counted-see-states-processing-timelines

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azuarc
10/28/20 1:25:49 PM
#7:


*mashes F5*

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BlAcK TuRtLe
10/28/20 1:34:43 PM
#8:


Out of curiosity, at this point in 2016, most of the polling had Clinton almost considered a lock to win. What is the difference in Clinton/Trump vs Biden/Trump a week out from election night?

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ninkendo
10/28/20 1:36:21 PM
#9:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Out of curiosity, at this point in 2016, most of the polling had Clinton almost considered a lock to win. What is the difference in Clinton/Trump vs Biden/Trump a week out from election night?

Clinton was below 50%

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Reg
10/28/20 1:37:44 PM
#10:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Out of curiosity, at this point in 2016, most of the polling had Clinton almost considered a lock to win. What is the difference in Clinton/Trump vs Biden/Trump a week out from election night?
I love people spewing this idiotic take because they understand neither polling nor probability. At this point in 2016, FiveThirtyEight had Clinton with about an 82% chance to win. You ever roll a six-sided die and have it come up a 1? That's slightly worse odds than what Trump was getting.
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SeabassDebeste
10/28/20 1:40:30 PM
#11:


Reg posted...

I love people spewing this idiotic take because they understand neither polling nor probability. At this point in 2016, FiveThirtyEight had Clinton with about an 82% chance to win. You ever roll a six-sided die and have it come up a 1? That's slightly worse odds than what Trump was getting.

538 has approximately those odds right now for biden too, though
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Leafeon13N
10/28/20 1:45:13 PM
#12:


The polls in 2016 were skewed heavily by the Comey letter making the usual polling averages a good bit less useful.
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Reg
10/28/20 1:46:48 PM
#13:


SeabassDebeste posted...
538 has approximately those odds right now for biden too, though
Sure. And the whole point is that it's far from "a lock" and it's really hilarious to see ignorant people try to discredit polls because of how those odds hit.
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Mac Arrowny
10/28/20 1:50:13 PM
#14:


Huh? 538 had Trump at a 35% chance to win in 2016, didn't they?
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Reg
10/28/20 1:51:44 PM
#15:


Mac Arrowny posted...
Huh? 538 had Trump at a 35% chance to win in 2016, didn't they?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Looks to me like they had him at about 28% on Election Day, but about 18.5% on October 28, 2016.
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Mac Arrowny
10/28/20 1:53:52 PM
#16:


Ah, gotcha. Note that Election Day was 5 days later in 2016, though.
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Reg
10/28/20 1:57:09 PM
#17:


oh, right, it was. I just sorta honed in on matching dates lol

That said, on the equivalent "six days out" date (November 2, 2016), Trump's odds to win were at 32% (Pretty close to his peak of 35% that you quoted)

One in three. Roll a six-sided die, and the odds of it coming up 1 or 2 are about the same as the odds Trump had of winning this far out in 2016. Hilariously far from a lock.
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Leonhart4
10/28/20 2:00:56 PM
#18:


Didn't people criticize 538 for giving Trump too high of a chance to win in 2016 or am I misremembering that?

But really I'm only here to ask @ZenOfThunder to post his Jeb Bush Electoral Map meme

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Xeybozn
10/28/20 2:03:23 PM
#19:


Was there ever an explanation from 538 why Clinton's odds went up so much the last two days before the 2016 election? There was virtually no movement in the polls, but her odds still went up about 7% (with Trump's odds going down the same amount). I remember a lot of other political predictors were mocking them for having Trump's odds so high, so it almost seems like they just went in and manually played with the model until they got "better" results.
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charmander6000
10/28/20 2:11:42 PM
#20:


Xeybozn posted...
Was there ever an explanation from 538 why Clinton's odds went up so much the last two days before the 2016 election? There was virtually no movement in the polls, but her odds still went up about 7% (with Trump's odds going down the same amount). I remember a lot of other political predictors were mocking them for having Trump's odds so high, so it almost seems like they just went in and manually played with the model until they got "better" results.

I wouldn't be surprised, they were getting a lot of hate from Democrat supporters and when everyone else has such different odds it makes you want to take a second look at your model to see if you missed something.

Another option could be that the model included some kind of late news release which would add uncertainty.

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TheRock1525
10/28/20 2:15:30 PM
#21:


Xeybozn posted...
Was there ever an explanation from 538 why Clinton's odds went up so much the last two days before the 2016 election? There was virtually no movement in the polls, but her odds still went up about 7% (with Trump's odds going down the same amount). I remember a lot of other political predictors were mocking them for having Trump's odds so high, so it almost seems like they just went in and manually played with the model until they got "better" results.

There was some movement in the polls and also odds always improve as you get closer to election day if there's no movement towards the underdog. Because there's less time to make up the difference.

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Ngamer64
10/28/20 4:01:22 PM
#22:


Yes, some other sites had Hillary at 90% or above and 538 was considered too generous for giving Trump a 30 to 35% chance at the upset around this time last cycle. Here in 2020 they're much more confident in Biden's chances:

Their model has gone from a 67% chance in August up to 88% (an all time high for 2020 or 2016) as of this morning.

That being said they're still not calling it a lock, and always point out that Trump has several paths to victory.

Reg posted...
Hey, I didn't think Texas would be in play until 2024 either, but the early numbers have been jaw dropping! They've crossed the 91% threshold for votes versus 2016 this morning, including nearly a million votes cast by people 30 and younger. Only about 150,000 people that young voted early last cycle, so you can tell how energized the whole state is this time around.

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azuarc
10/28/20 6:29:35 PM
#23:


SeabassDebeste posted...
538 has approximately those odds right now for biden too, though

11% tho. Was dropping from 23 by about half a percent a day for a while, and then it held at 12-13 for over a week. This is the first it's moved. I'm not sure if that's because of that Wisconsin poll or if they're just tightening things down as the amount of time for Trump to swing the race is vanishing.

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Eddv
10/28/20 6:47:44 PM
#24:


It's the latter.


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WarThaNemesis2
10/28/20 6:50:07 PM
#25:


A big part of the 538 model is that it's predicting the future, and the ways the race can change. The closer we get to the election being the present, the fewer ways the race can change.

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LordoftheMorons
10/28/20 7:12:54 PM
#26:


Leonhart4 posted...
Didn't people criticize 538 for giving Trump too high of a chance to win in 2016 or am I misremembering that?

But really I'm only here to ask @ZenOfThunder to post his Jeb Bush Electoral Map meme
Yes, and then people criticized 538 (as a stand in for "the polls" being "wrong") afterward for "saying Trump had no chance" because people don't understand that things with a 30% chance of happening... happen 30% of the time!

Also yes the Jeb! meme is the best

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Ngamer64
10/29/20 12:39:10 AM
#27:


We've got our first CUT! Sound every comeback alarm? Ehh, maybe not so fast...

Results From The Last 24 Hours
New Votes Cast 4,728,663
Biden Votes (estimated) 2,391,490
Trump Votes (estimated) 2,095,951

It's a percentage comeback for Trump, as he slashes Biden's lead by 0.81%. However Joe still extended his overall lead by 295,540 votes.

New total tally is
75,792,256 Total Early Votes Cast
(55% of 2016's final total)

43,354,225 Biden Votes (estimated)
29,354,768 Trump Votes (estimated)
13,999,458 Current Lead (estimated)

57.20% Biden Total Percentage (estimated)
38.73% Trump Total Percentage (estimated)
18.47% Current Lead (estimated)

Slashing Biden by nearly a full percentage point would initially sound like a big win for Trump, but the problem is, ballots are arriving so fast and furious that he's running out of potential new voters. Remember how yesterday I said he needed to collect a staggering 58.7% of all the remaining ballots to capture the popular vote*? Well now he needs to get 59.5%. Even if he dominates election day, that's going to be a tall order!

* assuming 150 million total votes

EDIT - Full results, as always:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing

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azuarc
10/29/20 12:48:01 AM
#28:


Oh, god, we're really going to treat this like a site contest poll, aren't we?

Time to get Wyoming'ed.

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Team Rocket Elite
10/29/20 1:48:30 AM
#29:


Biden should be more popular in Europe. I'm not sure how well Trump will do once we get deep into the dead zone.
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Metal_DK
10/29/20 2:33:00 AM
#30:


here in metro atlanta (and honestly a quite red area of suburban atlanta) im seeing a LOT more biden bumper stickers, lawn signs, etc. Will it lead to anything idk. But also in 2016 Cobb county went blue (one of the most red counties with a major population in the country), and Georgia if i recall was the last state in the eastern and central time zone to be called because of this.

Georgia i think is very much in play. Some say Biden has the lead which im not sure of, but he definitely has a shot.

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red13n
10/29/20 2:35:03 AM
#31:


azuarc posted...
Oh, god, we're really going to treat this like a site contest poll, aren't we?

Time to get Wyoming'ed

This board literally lives for polls. I will consume all poll content.

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RPGlord95
10/29/20 5:54:50 AM
#32:


When do we record this episode of The Show Politics Edition?

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Seanchan
10/29/20 6:32:33 AM
#33:


I wonder what a "registered user" bonus would be and what affect it would have...

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LordoftheMorons
10/29/20 6:55:32 AM
#34:


Seanchan posted...
I wonder what a "registered user" bonus would be and what affect it would have...
Because of the electoral college, it's living in a small state...!

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Lightning Strikes
10/29/20 6:55:34 AM
#35:


There will almost certainly be an actual Gamefaqs poll about this, so dont worry guys, well get to see some trends soon.

Obama was racking up 90%+ in Europe, well see if Biden does the same.

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CaptainOfCrush
10/29/20 9:25:36 AM
#36:


Ng - curious, which source are you using for your updated votals (these ones):

50,131,784 Mail In Ballot Votes
25,660,472 In-Person Early Votes

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NFUN
10/29/20 9:43:04 AM
#37:


Biden has this in the bag. Just wait until the ASV propels him to an easy victory

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handsomeboy2012
10/29/20 9:48:18 AM
#38:


Didn't the polls show Hilary with a large lead back in 2016? Will the same situation happen this time around?

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NFUN
10/29/20 9:50:00 AM
#39:


handsomeboy2012 posted...
Didn't the polls show Hilary with a large lead back in 2016? Will the same situation happen this time around?
read the fucking thread

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Aecioo
10/29/20 9:58:32 AM
#40:


NFUN posted...
read the fucking thread

Dude stfu this topic already has 40 posts how can you be expected to read it all

With that said, didn't Clinton have a large lead this time in 2016?

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LordoftheMorons
10/29/20 10:04:12 AM
#41:


handsomeboy2012 posted...
Didn't the polls show Hilary with a large lead back in 2016? Will the same situation happen this time around?
The final national polls were Clinton +3 and the actual result was Clinton +2. Some of the state polls were off by a considerable margin.

Bidens national lead currently appears to be roughly +9, with his lead in the most likely tipping point state (Pennsylvania) around +5. Hes in an objectively better position than Hillary was based on the available data and will most likely win, but its still possible that he could lose through some combination of a sizable polling error/polls tightening in the next five days/ballot fuckery.

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TheRock1525
10/29/20 10:16:36 AM
#42:


LordoftheMorons posted...
The final national polls were Clinton +3 and the actual result was Clinton +2. Some of the state polls were off by a considerable margin.

Bidens national lead currently appears to be roughly +9, with his lead in the most likely tipping point state (Pennsylvania) around +5. Hes in an objectively better position than Hillary was based on the available data and will most likely win, but its still possible that he could lose through some combination of a sizable polling error/polls tightening in the next five days/ballot fuckery.
Don't forget the lack of undecided voters. Even when Clinton had larger leads on Trump there was still anywhere from 13 to 15% a voter's planning to vote third party or undecided.

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#43
Post #43 was unavailable or deleted.
Leonhart4
10/29/20 12:43:59 PM
#44:


I wish we had Geolocation for Link/Cloud 2004 and 2005 to see what the Electoral split was

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banananor
10/29/20 1:38:10 PM
#45:


thanks for compiling this. i just hope all the ballots get counted before/instead of a coup!

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red sox 777
10/29/20 1:41:05 PM
#46:


Ngamer64 posted...
We've got our first CUT! Sound every comeback alarm? Ehh, maybe not so fast...

Results From The Last 24 Hours
New Votes Cast 4,728,663
Biden Votes (estimated) 2,391,490
Trump Votes (estimated) 2,095,951

It's a percentage comeback for Trump, as he slashes Biden's lead by 0.81%. However Joe still extended his overall lead by 295,540 votes.

New total tally is
75,792,256 Total Early Votes Cast
(55% of 2016's final total)

43,354,225 Biden Votes (estimated)
29,354,768 Trump Votes (estimated)
13,999,458 Current Lead (estimated)

57.20% Biden Total Percentage (estimated)
38.73% Trump Total Percentage (estimated)
18.47% Current Lead (estimated)

Slashing Biden by nearly a full percentage point would initially sound like a big win for Trump, but the problem is, ballots are arriving so fast and furious that he's running out of potential new voters. Remember how yesterday I said he needed to collect a staggering 58.7% of all the remaining ballots to capture the popular vote*? Well now he needs to get 59.5%. Even if he dominates election day, that's going to be a tall order!

* assuming 150 million total votes

EDIT - Full results, as always:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing

A percentage cut is no cut! If Trump is actually cutting votes at any point prior to election day, this is probably over in his favor.

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Lightning Strikes
10/29/20 2:46:26 PM
#47:


Aecioo posted...
Dude stfu this topic already has 40 posts how can you be expected to read it all

With that said, didn't Clinton have a large lead this time in 2016?

Here is a comparison chart from the fivethirtyeight subreddit:



So essentially Biden is up significantly over Clinton everywhere except Ohio, where hes marginally up. Some of these states would have been corrected from 2016 as well, so Bidens real lead might actually be bigger. If Biden overperforms Clinton by those margins he wins comfortably, taking the states Clinton won plus Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona, with Georgia just on the edge. As for the national vote hes about 6% clear of where Clinton was. So no, Hillary Clinton did not have as substantial a lead.

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cyan1001
10/29/20 3:09:22 PM
#48:


if biden wins this country is doomed

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Hbthebattle
10/29/20 3:16:01 PM
#49:


cyan1001 posted...
if biden wins this country is doomed
lol we found one in the wild

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Steiner
10/29/20 3:20:13 PM
#50:


cyan1001 posted...
if biden wins this country is doomed

based on what

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