Board 8 > Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion

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LinkMarioSamus 10/28/20 2:08:42 PM #153:	Tom Bombadil posted... Where the heck did this come from? --- Anyone who thinks Rey is a Mary Sue is effectively a misogynist. <cite>LinkMarioSamus posted [p:946413593] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Tom Bombadil posted... </cite> <quote></quote> Where the heck did this come from? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
masterplum 10/28/20 2:10:13 PM #154:	Maniac64 posted... I voted by mail weeks ago but now I'm paranoid my vote will get thrown out because I dont have the most consistent signature. I'm going to be so annoyed if my vote doesnt count. Many counties have online pages where you can check --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdWiElvIQAAQpBt.jpg <cite>masterplum posted [p:946413660] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Maniac64 posted... </cite> <quote>I voted by mail weeks ago but now I'm paranoid my vote will get thrown out because I dont have the most consistent signature. I'm going to be so annoyed if my vote doesnt count.</quote> Many counties have online pages where you can check </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
PrivateBiscuit1 10/28/20 2:12:48 PM #155:	BlAcK TuRtLe posted... The Electoral College is a momentously stupid system, but was implemented to solve the problem of heavily populated urban areas dictating policy decisions that would adversely affect rural populations. Going to a "popular vote" system would be just as stupid, but there has to be a better way. It made sense for when it was created, and a similar system should be in place so the election isn't essentially decided by 3-4 states, but the electoral college is definitely extremely dated at this point. Which means it'll never change gg. --- I stream sometimes. Check it out! www.twitch.tv/heroicbiz/ <cite>PrivateBiscuit1 posted [p:946413750] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>BlAcK TuRtLe posted... </cite> <quote>The Electoral College is a momentously stupid system, but was implemented to solve the problem of heavily populated urban areas dictating policy decisions that would adversely affect rural populations. Going to a "popular vote" system would be just as stupid, but there has to be a better way.</quote>It made sense for when it was created, and a similar system should be in place so the election isn't essentially decided by 3-4 states, but the electoral college is definitely extremely dated at this point. Which means it'll never change gg. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Tom Bombadil 10/28/20 2:22:35 PM #156:	LinkMarioSamus posted... Where the heck did this come from? found it on facebook, would be quite a Loss for Biden --- https://imgtc.com/i/uWMMlnN.png Radiant wings as the skies rejoice, arise, and illuminate the morn. <cite>Tom Bombadil posted [p:946414163] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>LinkMarioSamus posted... </cite> <quote>Where the heck did this come from?</quote> found it on facebook, would be quite a Loss for Biden </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Tom Bombadil 10/28/20 2:24:22 PM #157:	BlAcK TuRtLe posted... The Electoral College is a momentously stupid system, but was implemented to solve the problem of heavily populated urban areas dictating policy decisions that would adversely affect rural populations. Going to a "popular vote" system would be just as stupid, but there has to be a better way. I get the electoral college concept, I was just asking why we needed actual electors (which Yesmar explained as being due to states having the freedom to appoint electors by a means other than popular vote) --- https://imgtc.com/i/uWMMlnN.png Radiant wings as the skies rejoice, arise, and illuminate the morn. <cite>Tom Bombadil posted [p:946414266] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>BlAcK TuRtLe posted... </cite> <quote>The Electoral College is a momentously stupid system, but was implemented to solve the problem of heavily populated urban areas dictating policy decisions that would adversely affect rural populations. Going to a "popular vote" system would be just as stupid, but there has to be a better way.</quote> I get the electoral college concept, I was just asking why we needed actual electors (which Yesmar explained as being due to states having the freedom to appoint electors by a means other than popular vote) </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
charmander6000 10/28/20 2:24:25 PM #158:	Just having the electoral votes in each state be given out proportionally would help things immensely as it would force the Democrats/Republicans to campaign across the nation rather than in a few select states and you wouldn't have to open up the constitution to do so. --- Congratulations to azuarc for winning the guru challenge <cite>charmander6000 posted [p:946414269] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Just having the electoral votes in each state be given out proportionally would help things immensely as it would force the Democrats/Republicans to campaign across the nation rather than in a few select states and you wouldn't have to open up the constitution to do so. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 10/28/20 2:27:56 PM #159:	I can't imagine how we would end up with that map. Maybe if the country is placed in a timewarp back to the 1870s. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946414430] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>I can't imagine how we would end up with that map. Maybe if the country is placed in a timewarp back to the 1870s. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BlAcK TuRtLe 10/28/20 2:31:47 PM #160:	charmander6000 posted... Just having the electoral votes in each state be given out proportionally would help things immensely as it would force the Democrats/Republicans to campaign across the nation rather than in a few select states and you wouldn't have to open up the constitution to do so. If you do that, you might as well just go full bore into using the popular vote. The fundamental problem with the US, is it tries to straddle the line of treating the states as equal but independent entities, while also trying to govern them as a whole. That's where you get stupidity like marijuana being legal at the state level, but illegal at the federal level. --- Props to azuarc, the current Guru of the Decade. Wear this title with pride! <cite>BlAcK TuRtLe posted [p:946414623] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>charmander6000 posted... </cite> <quote>Just having the electoral votes in each state be given out proportionally would help things immensely as it would force the Democrats/Republicans to campaign across the nation rather than in a few select states and you wouldn't have to open up the constitution to do so.</quote>If you do that, you might as well just go full bore into using the popular vote. The fundamental problem with the US, is it tries to straddle the line of treating the states as equal but independent entities, while also trying to govern them as a whole. That's where you get stupidity like marijuana being legal at the state level, but illegal at the federal level. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 10/28/20 2:34:17 PM #161:	The electoral college provides stability by ensuring that power is always concentrated in the swing states, whichever states those may be at the time. Since the states holding power are always the ones most balanced between the two sides, it is hard for major change to occur. And change is always risky. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946414734] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>The electoral college provides stability by ensuring that power is always concentrated in the swing states, whichever states those may be at the time. Since the states holding power are always the ones most balanced between the two sides, it is hard for major change to occur. And change is always risky. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Tom Bombadil 10/28/20 2:36:31 PM #162:	~~it's Loss y'all~~ --- https://imgtc.com/i/uWMMlnN.png Radiant wings as the skies rejoice, arise, and illuminate the morn. <cite>Tom Bombadil posted [p:946414849] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>it's Loss y'all </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LinkMarioSamus 10/28/20 2:52:48 PM #163:	The more numerous people living in urban areas should have more power to decide the President than the less numerous people in rural areas. --- Anyone who thinks Rey is a Mary Sue is effectively a misogynist. <cite>LinkMarioSamus posted [p:946415525] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>The more numerous people living in urban areas should have more power to decide the President than the less numerous people in rural areas. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
charmander6000 10/28/20 2:59:15 PM #164:	BlAcK TuRtLe posted... If you do that, you might as well just go full bore into using the popular vote. The fundamental problem with the US, is it tries to straddle the line of treating the states as equal but independent entities, while also trying to govern them as a whole. That's where you get stupidity like marijuana being legal at the state level, but illegal at the federal level. It still gives the smaller states more power since they have more electoral votes than they should. red sox 777 posted... The electoral college provides stability by ensuring that power is always concentrated in the swing states, whichever states those may be at the time. Since the states holding power are always the ones most balanced between the two sides, it is hard for major change to occur. And change is always risky. Does it though? Polarization among the non-swing states is increasing because they are being completely ignored by the other side, the swing states going slightly to one side opens the door for the far-right/left opinions to have a seat at the table. --- Congratulations to azuarc for winning the guru challenge <cite>charmander6000 posted [p:946415757] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>BlAcK TuRtLe posted... </cite> <quote>If you do that, you might as well just go full bore into using the popular vote. The fundamental problem with the US, is it tries to straddle the line of treating the states as equal but independent entities, while also trying to govern them as a whole. That's where you get stupidity like marijuana being legal at the state level, but illegal at the federal level.</quote> It still gives the smaller states more power since they have more electoral votes than they should. red sox 777 posted... </cite> <quote>The electoral college provides stability by ensuring that power is always concentrated in the swing states, whichever states those may be at the time. Since the states holding power are always the ones most balanced between the two sides, it is hard for major change to occur. And change is always risky.</quote> Does it though? Polarization among the non-swing states is increasing because they are being completely ignored by the other side, the swing states going slightly to one side opens the door for the far-right/left opinions to have a seat at the table. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 10/28/20 3:04:01 PM #165:	charmander6000 posted... It still gives the smaller states more power since they have more electoral votes than they should. Does it though? Polarization among the non-swing states is increasing because they are being completely ignored by the other side, the swing states going slightly to one side opens the door for the far-right/left opinions to have a seat at the table. I'm talking about over the 230 year history of the system. On average, the swing states are centrist. And the system is designed to let the far right and far left should have a seat at the table, but tries to keep power in the center. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946415956] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>charmander6000 posted... </cite> <quote>It still gives the smaller states more power since they have more electoral votes than they should. Does it though? Polarization among the non-swing states is increasing because they are being completely ignored by the other side, the swing states going slightly to one side opens the door for the far-right/left opinions to have a seat at the table.</quote> I'm talking about over the 230 year history of the system. On average, the swing states are centrist. And the system is designed to let the far right and far left should have a seat at the table, but tries to keep power in the center. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
charmander6000 10/28/20 3:14:00 PM #166:	red sox 777 posted... I'm talking about over the 230 year history of the system. On average, the swing states are centrist. And the system is designed to let the far right and far left should have a seat at the table, but tries to keep power in the center. But wouldn't "the centrist" option still apply in other states. For example California may be 65/35 for Biden, but if you were to align people from the most Republican to the most Democrat then the people in the 35th percentile would be considered the center and in the end it's those votes that are being courted by both sides. --- Congratulations to azuarc for winning the guru challenge <cite>charmander6000 posted [p:946416346] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>red sox 777 posted... </cite> <quote>I'm talking about over the 230 year history of the system. On average, the swing states are centrist. And the system is designed to let the far right and far left should have a seat at the table, but tries to keep power in the center.</quote> But wouldn't "the centrist" option still apply in other states. For example California may be 65/35 for Biden, but if you were to align people from the most Republican to the most Democrat then the people in the 35th percentile would be considered the center and in the end it's those votes that are being courted by both sides. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 10/28/20 3:17:52 PM #167:	charmander6000 posted... But wouldn't "the centrist" option still apply in other states. For example California may be 65/35 for Biden, but if you were to align people from the most Republican to the most Democrat then the people in the 35th percentile would be considered the center and in the end it's those votes that are being courted by both sides. Yes, the centrists would always be well-represented. It's just the EC exaggerates their power. But what positions are centrist can change. The EC just generally operates to slow down the pace of change of laws. FPTP and single-member districts achieves the same in the other formerly British countries. It just isn't as visible there because there is no national election for a prime minister. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946416480] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>charmander6000 posted... </cite> <quote>But wouldn't "the centrist" option still apply in other states. For example California may be 65/35 for Biden, but if you were to align people from the most Republican to the most Democrat then the people in the 35th percentile would be considered the center and in the end it's those votes that are being courted by both sides.</quote> Yes, the centrists would always be well-represented. It's just the EC exaggerates their power. But what positions are centrist can change. The EC just generally operates to slow down the pace of change of laws. FPTP and single-member districts achieves the same in the other formerly British countries. It just isn't as visible there because there is no national election for a prime minister. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Maniac64 10/28/20 3:58:50 PM #168:	masterplum posted... Many counties have online pages where you can check I intend to. Right now of course it just says they have my vote. --- "Hope is allowed to be stupid, unwise, and naive." ~Sir Chris <cite>Maniac64 posted [p:946418133] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>masterplum posted... </cite> <quote>Many counties have online pages where you can check</quote>I intend to. Right now of course it just says they have my vote. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 10/31/20 1:01:46 PM #169:	My Preliminary Predictions for Presidential Election (subject to readjustment until voting starts on election day): DC - Biden +82 Hawaii - Biden +34 California - Biden +30 Massachusetts - Biden +28 Vermont - Biden +28 Maryland - Biden +27 New York - Biden +26 Illinois - Biden +21 Delaware - Biden +18 Rhode Island - Biden +17 New Jersey - Biden +17 Connecticut - Biden +17 Maine-1 - Biden +17 Washington - Biden +17 Oregon - Biden +13 Colorado - Biden +8 Virginia - Biden +8 Maine - Biden +6 New Mexico - Biden +5 Minnesota - Biden +5 Wisconsin - Biden +4 New Hampshire - Biden +4 Michigan - Biden +2 Pennsylvania - Biden/Trump +0 Nevada - Biden/Trump +0 North Carolina - Trump +1 Nebraska-2 - Trump +1 Florida - Trump +2 Arizona - Trump +2 Georgia - Trump +3 Ohio - Trump +4 Iowa - Trump +5 Maine-2 - Trump +5 Texas - Trump +6 Alaska - Trump +12 South Carolina - Trump +13 Missouri - Trump +16 Mississippi - Trump +17 Kansas - Trump +17 Montana - Trump +17 Nebraska-1 - Trump +17 Louisiana - Trump +18 Nebraska - Trump +21 Tennessee - Trump +22 Alabama - Trump +26 Arkansas - Trump +26 Kentucky - Trump +26 South Dakota - Trump +26 Idaho - Trump +30 Utah - Trump +30 North Dakota - Trump +31 Oklahoma - Trump +34 West Virginia - Trump +38 Wyoming - Trump +40 Nebraska-3 - Trump +48 National Popular Vote - Biden +4 Electoral Votes: Trump - 262 Biden - 250 Unallocated - 26 Will be predicting a winner in PA and NV over the next couple days, but for now my prediction is +0. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946537734] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>My Preliminary Predictions for Presidential Election (subject to readjustment until voting starts on election day): DC - Biden +82 Hawaii - Biden +34 California - Biden +30 Massachusetts - Biden +28 Vermont - Biden +28 Maryland - Biden +27 New York - Biden +26 Illinois - Biden +21 Delaware - Biden +18 Rhode Island - Biden +17 New Jersey - Biden +17 Connecticut - Biden +17 Maine-1 - Biden +17 Washington - Biden +17 Oregon - Biden +13 Colorado - Biden +8 Virginia - Biden +8 Maine - Biden +6 New Mexico - Biden +5 Minnesota - Biden +5 Wisconsin - Biden +4 New Hampshire - Biden +4 Michigan - Biden +2 Pennsylvania - Biden/Trump +0 Nevada - Biden/Trump +0 North Carolina - Trump +1 Nebraska-2 - Trump +1 Florida - Trump +2 Arizona - Trump +2 Georgia - Trump +3 Ohio - Trump +4 Iowa - Trump +5 Maine-2 - Trump +5 Texas - Trump +6 Alaska - Trump +12 South Carolina - Trump +13 Missouri - Trump +16 Mississippi - Trump +17 Kansas - Trump +17 Montana - Trump +17 Nebraska-1 - Trump +17 Louisiana - Trump +18 Nebraska - Trump +21 Tennessee - Trump +22 Alabama - Trump +26 Arkansas - Trump +26 Kentucky - Trump +26 South Dakota - Trump +26 Idaho - Trump +30 Utah - Trump +30 North Dakota - Trump +31 Oklahoma - Trump +34 West Virginia - Trump +38 Wyoming - Trump +40 Nebraska-3 - Trump +48 National Popular Vote - Biden +4 Electoral Votes: Trump - 262 Biden - 250 Unallocated - 26 Will be predicting a winner in PA and NV over the next couple days, but for now my prediction is +0. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Corrik7 10/31/20 1:45:21 PM #170:	Interesting. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) <cite>Corrik7 posted [p:946539166] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Interesting. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
charmander6000 10/31/20 2:14:23 PM #171:	I thought Nevada for Trump would have been my upset special... --- Congratulations to azuarc for winning the guru challenge <cite>charmander6000 posted [p:946540175] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>I thought Nevada for Trump would have been my upset special... </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Corrik7 10/31/20 2:22:39 PM #172:	Nevada ain't going to Trump lol --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) <cite>Corrik7 posted [p:946540443] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Nevada ain't going to Trump lol </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Team Rocket Elite 10/31/20 2:38:50 PM #173:	I mean it wouldn't be much of a upset special if it looked it was going to happen. --- My bracket looked like random picks compared to his. Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD 2020 Guru Contest! <cite>Team Rocket Elite posted [p:946541027] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>I mean it wouldn't be much of a upset special if it looked it was going to happen.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 10/31/20 8:00:00 PM #174:	The gist of my predictions: Biden's national margin against Trump is about 2 points higher than Hillary's. Trump does relatively better than (2016 result - 2 points) in states with a lot of minorities, and relatively worse in states with few minorities. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946552493] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>The gist of my predictions: Biden's national margin against Trump is about 2 points higher than Hillary's. Trump does relatively better than (2016 result - 2 points) in states with a lot of minorities, and relatively worse in states with few minorities. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/02/20 12:04:07 AM #175:	PredictIt seems to be moving toward Trump in the swing states. North Carolina swung hard in the last 24 hours and now has Trump as the favorite. Biden is down to 60% in Pennsylvania, which is about where PredictIt has his overall odds. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946601496] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>PredictIt seems to be moving toward Trump in the swing states. North Carolina swung hard in the last 24 hours and now has Trump as the favorite. Biden is down to 60% in Pennsylvania, which is about where PredictIt has his overall odds. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
FBike1 11/02/20 5:28:29 AM #176:	red sox 777 posted... PredictIt seems to be moving toward Trump in the swing states. North Carolina swung hard in the last 24 hours and now has Trump as the favorite. Biden is down to 60% in Pennsylvania, which is about where PredictIt has his overall odds. I never really trust PredictIt for this sort of thing, but this is likely just a reaction to the early voting exit polls. --- [FIFTY KEYS SPILL A BANANA] Coming in 2021? <cite>FBike1 posted [p:946606772] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>red sox 777 posted... </cite> <quote>PredictIt seems to be moving toward Trump in the swing states. North Carolina swung hard in the last 24 hours and now has Trump as the favorite. Biden is down to 60% in Pennsylvania, which is about where PredictIt has his overall odds.</quote> I never really trust PredictIt for this sort of thing, but this is likely just a reaction to the early voting exit polls. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
masterplum 11/02/20 11:53:52 AM #177:	Predict it is interesting, but you can tell there isn't big money on the site. Completely impossible outcomes like Trump winning the popular vote by 1.5% still have something like 1-30 odds betting against. If a casino offered that you would see million dollar bets --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdWiElvIQAAQpBt.jpg <cite>masterplum posted [p:946615620] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Predict it is interesting, but you can tell there isn't big money on the site. Completely impossible outcomes like Trump winning the popular vote by 1.5% still have something like 1-30 odds betting against. If a casino offered that you would see million dollar bets </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
neonreaper 11/02/20 2:13:09 PM #178:	So I'm thinking Trump wins and the story is going to be "people who didn't vote in 2016 ended up voting for Trump in 2020". It's a narrow win for him. I saw a stat that we have more new voter registrations for people age 50+ than we do under 30. The two big issues (I have no data for this, just my dumb brain) Riots (this favors Trump quite a bit) Tweets / nature of discourse (this favors Biden quite a bit - I think the rise in popularity with women and Biden getting rid of attack ads is really smart on his part) Covid - this I think is a wash oddly enough. --- Donny: Are they gonna hurt us, Walter? Walter: No, Donny. These men are cowards. <cite>neonreaper posted [p:946620936] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>So I'm thinking Trump wins and the story is going to be "people who didn't vote in 2016 ended up voting for Trump in 2020". It's a narrow win for him. I saw a stat that we have more new voter registrations for people age 50+ than we do under 30. The two big issues (I have no data for this, just my dumb brain) Riots (this favors Trump quite a bit)Tweets / nature of discourse (this favors Biden quite a bit - I think the rise in popularity with women and Biden getting rid of attack ads is really smart on his part)Covid - this I think is a wash oddly enough.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ashethan 11/02/20 2:40:44 PM #179:	neonreaper posted... So I'm thinking Trump wins and the story is going to be "people who didn't vote in 2016 ended up voting for Trump in 2020" This is pretty illogical here. People don't refuse to vote, and then register to vote for an incumbent. --- Board 8 Mafia Archive: ashchive.altervista.org <cite>Ashethan posted [p:946621955] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>neonreaper posted... </cite> <quote>So I'm thinking Trump wins and the story is going to be "people who didn't vote in 2016 ended up voting for Trump in 2020"</quote> This is pretty illogical here. People don't refuse to vote, and then register to vote for an incumbent. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
CaptainOfCrush 11/02/20 3:24:27 PM #180:	Ashethan posted... This is pretty illogical here. People don't refuse to vote, and then register to vote for an incumbent. They would if they're pleasantly surprised by the incumbent's behavior and policies, which I doubt would be the case HERE, but upon deeper examination... who knows, sadly. I'm not a 55-year-old white person living in central Pennsylvania and have no idea if that person was questionable on Trump a few years ago and is now all on board his train. --- Yoblazer https://imgur.com/gByqgPg <cite>CaptainOfCrush posted [p:946623668] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Ashethan posted... </cite> <quote>This is pretty illogical here. People don't refuse to vote, and then register to vote for an incumbent.</quote>They would if they're pleasantly surprised by the incumbent's behavior and policies, which I doubt would be the case HERE, but upon deeper examination... who knows, sadly. I'm not a 55-year-old white person living in central Pennsylvania and have no idea if that person was questionable on Trump a few years ago and is now all on board his train. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/02/20 3:59:43 PM #181:	CaptainOfCrush posted... They would if they're pleasantly surprised by the incumbent's behavior and policies, which I doubt would be the case HERE, but upon deeper examination... who knows, sadly. I'm not a 55-year-old white person living in central Pennsylvania and have no idea if that person was questionable on Trump a few years ago and is now all on board his train. The thing is, it should depend a lot on their expectations, and Trump had historically low expectations. When he was elected, he had the lowest favorability of any president since they started favorability questioning. Have the last 4 years been worse or better than you expected? I think before the virus, for most people the answer would have been better because they are doing well economically and we haven't plunged into World War III. Now....who knows. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946625195] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>CaptainOfCrush posted... </cite> <quote>They would if they're pleasantly surprised by the incumbent's behavior and policies, which I doubt would be the case HERE, but upon deeper examination... who knows, sadly. I'm not a 55-year-old white person living in central Pennsylvania and have no idea if that person was questionable on Trump a few years ago and is now all on board his train.</quote> The thing is, it should depend a lot on their expectations, and Trump had historically low expectations. When he was elected, he had the lowest favorability of any president since they started favorability questioning. Have the last 4 years been worse or better than you expected? I think before the virus, for most people the answer would have been better because they are doing well economically and we haven't plunged into World War III. Now....who knows. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Kingfrost 11/02/20 4:46:45 PM #182:	Trump had low expectations, but he somehow managed to not even match those. Throw in the perfect storm of social unrest (with no real solutions offered) and COVID 19 (which he prefers to ignore and thinks will magically disappear any day now..) and you've got a recipe for disaster for an already unpopular and divisive incumbent who isn't particularly likable. <cite>Kingfrost posted [p:946627173] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Trump had low expectations, but he somehow managed to not even match those. Throw in the perfect storm of social unrest (with no real solutions offered) and COVID 19 (which he prefers to ignore and thinks will magically disappear any day now..) and you've got a recipe for disaster for an already unpopular and divisive incumbent who isn't particularly likable. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Nanis23 11/02/20 5:12:26 PM #183:	I have two questions- 1.Why are people SOOOO sure that we won't know the results of the election for quite a while? From what I remember, in 2016, we knew it on the same day! 2.Why are people so sure that Trump will not admit defeat? because he said so? did this thing ever happen in the history of the US? I want some examples so I can read more about this --- wololo <cite>Nanis23 posted [p:946628167] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>I have two questions- 1.Why are people SOOOO sure that we won't know the results of the election for quite a while? From what I remember, in 2016, we knew it on the same day! 2.Why are people so sure that Trump will not admit defeat? because he said so? did this thing ever happen in the history of the US? I want some examples so I can read more about this </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
masterplum 11/02/20 5:14:32 PM #184:	Nanis23 posted... I have two questions- 1.Why are people SOOOO sure that we won't know the results of the election for quite a while? From what I remember, in 2016, we knew it on the same day! 2.Why are people so sure that Trump will not admit defeat? because he said so? did this thing ever happen in the history of the US? I want some examples so I can read more about this Because trump won decisively Because he said so --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdWiElvIQAAQpBt.jpg <cite>masterplum posted [p:946628246] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Nanis23 posted... </cite> <quote>I have two questions- 1.Why are people SOOOO sure that we won't know the results of the election for quite a while? From what I remember, in 2016, we knew it on the same day! 2.Why are people so sure that Trump will not admit defeat? because he said so? did this thing ever happen in the history of the US? I want some examples so I can read more about this</quote> Because trump won decisivelyBecause he said so</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mr Lasastryke 11/02/20 5:16:34 PM #186:	2016 didn't have tons of mail-in votes that slow everything down. --- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta <cite>Mr Lasastryke posted [p:946628338] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>2016 didn't have tons of mail-in votes that slow everything down. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/02/20 5:17:16 PM #187:	Yes, in 1876 3 states submitted 2 sets of electors. The conflict raged on for months. Finally Congress appointed a 15-member commission composed of 10 members of Congress and 5 Supreme Court justices to decide which slate of electoral votes to accept. The commission voted 8-7, on party lines, to accept the entire slate of Republican electors for all 3 states. The Republican won the electoral college 185-184 and was elected as President. To cool tensions, he promised to serve only one term. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946628359] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Yes, in 1876 3 states submitted 2 sets of electors. The conflict raged on for months. Finally Congress appointed a 15-member commission composed of 10 members of Congress and 5 Supreme Court justices to decide which slate of electoral votes to accept. The commission voted 8-7, on party lines, to accept the entire slate of Republican electors for all 3 states. The Republican won the electoral college 185-184 and was elected as President. To cool tensions, he promised to serve only one term. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordoftheMorons 11/02/20 5:19:10 PM #188:	Nanis23 posted... I have two questions- 1.Why are people SOOOO sure that we won't know the results of the election for quite a while? From what I remember, in 2016, we knew it on the same day! A ton of people are voting by mail While historically mail voting hasn't been that biased towards either party, this year we know it will be extremely biased towards Democrats because Trump has been politicizing VBM Some states (including, in particular, Pennsylvania) don't allow election officials to begin counting mail votes until election day In some states mail ballots can arrive several days after election day as long as they were postmarked by election day States will be inconsistent about the order in which they report the votes, so we can expect some states to swing from large Trump leads to Biden leads (or vice versa) as they count ballots from different modes --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:946628428] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Nanis23 posted... </cite> <quote>I have two questions- 1.Why are people SOOOO sure that we won't know the results of the election for quite a while? From what I remember, in 2016, we knew it on the same day!</quote>A ton of people are voting by mailWhile historically mail voting hasn't been that biased towards either party, this year we know it will be extremely biased towards Democrats because Trump has been politicizing VBMSome states (including, in particular, Pennsylvania) don't allow election officials to begin counting mail votes until election dayIn some states mail ballots can arrive several days after election day as long as they were postmarked by election dayStates will be inconsistent about the order in which they report the votes, so we can expect some states to swing from large Trump leads to Biden leads (or vice versa) as they count ballots from different modes</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
neonreaper 11/02/20 7:43:18 PM #189:	Ashethan posted... This is pretty illogical here. People don't refuse to vote, and then register to vote for an incumbent. disagree! Especially considering the 2016 election. Ill try and look for the link but it tracks either way. --- Donny: Are they gonna hurt us, Walter? Walter: No, Donny. These men are cowards. <cite>neonreaper posted [p:946633826] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Ashethan posted... </cite> <quote>This is pretty illogical here. People don't refuse to vote, and then register to vote for an incumbent.</quote> disagree! Especially considering the 2016 election. Ill try and look for the link but it tracks either way. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Corrik7 11/02/20 9:07:58 PM #190:	red sox 777 posted... Yes, in 1876 3 states submitted 2 sets of electors. The conflict raged on for months. Finally Congress appointed a 15-member commission composed of 10 members of Congress and 5 Supreme Court justices to decide which slate of electoral votes to accept. The commission voted 8-7, on party lines, to accept the entire slate of Republican electors for all 3 states. The Republican won the electoral college 185-184 and was elected as President. To cool tensions, he promised to serve only one term. This election was interesting --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) <cite>Corrik7 posted [p:946637127] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>red sox 777 posted... </cite> <quote>Yes, in 1876 3 states submitted 2 sets of electors. The conflict raged on for months. Finally Congress appointed a 15-member commission composed of 10 members of Congress and 5 Supreme Court justices to decide which slate of electoral votes to accept. The commission voted 8-7, on party lines, to accept the entire slate of Republican electors for all 3 states. The Republican won the electoral college 185-184 and was elected as President. To cool tensions, he promised to serve only one term.</quote>This election was interesting </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/02/20 11:43:40 PM #191:	My Final Predictions: DC - Biden +83 Hawaii - Biden +33 Massachusetts - Biden +29 Vermont - Biden +28 Maryland - Biden +26 California - Biden +26 New York - Biden +24 Delaware - Biden +21 Rhode Island - Biden +20 Connecticut - Biden +19 Washington - Biden +19 Maine-1 - Biden +17 New Jersey - Biden +16 Illinois - Biden +15 Oregon - Biden +14 Colorado - Biden +8 Virginia - Biden +8 Maine - Biden +8 New Mexico - Biden +6 Minnesota - Biden +5 Wisconsin - Biden +4 New Hampshire - Biden +3 Michigan - Biden +2 Pennsylvania - Trump +0 Nebraska-2 - Trump +0 Nevada - Trump +1 Maine-2 - Trump +1 North Carolina - Trump +2 Georgia - Trump +2 Florida - Trump +2 Arizona - Trump +2 Georgia - Trump +3 Ohio - Trump +4 Iowa - Trump +5 Texas - Trump +5 Alaska - Trump +12 South Carolina - Trump +12 Montana - Trump +13 Missouri - Trump +14 Nebraska-1 - Trump +17 Mississippi - Trump +17 Kansas - Trump +17 Utah - Trump +18 Tennessee - Trump +19 Nebraska - Trump +20 Kentucky - Trump +20 South Dakota - Trump +20 Louisiana - Trump +21 North Dakota - Trump +22 Alabama - Trump +24 Idaho - Trump +24 Arkansas - Trump +26 Oklahoma - Trump +28 West Virginia - Trump +33 Wyoming - Trump +36 Nebraska-3 - Trump +45 National Popular Vote - Biden +3 Electoral Votes: Trump - 288 Biden - 250 --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946642475] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>My Final Predictions: DC - Biden +83 Hawaii - Biden +33 Massachusetts - Biden +29 Vermont - Biden +28 Maryland - Biden +26 California - Biden +26 New York - Biden +24 Delaware - Biden +21 Rhode Island - Biden +20 Connecticut - Biden +19 Washington - Biden +19 Maine-1 - Biden +17 New Jersey - Biden +16 Illinois - Biden +15 Oregon - Biden +14 Colorado - Biden +8 Virginia - Biden +8 Maine - Biden +8 New Mexico - Biden +6 Minnesota - Biden +5 Wisconsin - Biden +4 New Hampshire - Biden +3 Michigan - Biden +2 Pennsylvania - Trump +0 Nebraska-2 - Trump +0 Nevada - Trump +1 Maine-2 - Trump +1 North Carolina - Trump +2 Georgia - Trump +2 Florida - Trump +2 Arizona - Trump +2 Georgia - Trump +3 Ohio - Trump +4 Iowa - Trump +5 Texas - Trump +5 Alaska - Trump +12 South Carolina - Trump +12 Montana - Trump +13 Missouri - Trump +14 Nebraska-1 - Trump +17 Mississippi - Trump +17 Kansas - Trump +17 Utah - Trump +18 Tennessee - Trump +19 Nebraska - Trump +20 Kentucky - Trump +20 South Dakota - Trump +20 Louisiana - Trump +21 North Dakota - Trump +22 Alabama - Trump +24 Idaho - Trump +24 Arkansas - Trump +26 Oklahoma - Trump +28 West Virginia - Trump +33 Wyoming - Trump +36 Nebraska-3 - Trump +45 National Popular Vote - Biden +3 Electoral Votes: Trump - 288 Biden - 250 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/03/20 11:52:33 AM #192:	PredictIt numbers as of morning of election day: Iowa - Trump 77% Ohio - Trump 75% Texas - Trump 75% Georgia - Trump 65% Florida - Trump 64% North Carolina - Trump 57% Arizona - Trump 53% Pennsylvania - Biden 62% Michigan - Biden 72% Wisconsin - Biden 73% Nevada - Biden 75% Minnesota - Biden 77% New Hampshire - Biden 79% Big moves to Trump over the last 2 days in the Sunbelt swing states. Arizona looks like it flipped from Biden to Trump as the favorite overnight and is now showing Trump as the favorite for the first time in months. Georgia and Florida have gone from near 50/50 to about 65% for Trump. NC has gone from around 57% for Biden to the same for Trump. The Midwest states and Pennsylvania are not showing much movement - Biden remains the favorite. Overall odds remain at Biden 64% to Trump 42% (there's a significant vigorish, which is why the odds add up to more than 100%). --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946658195] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>PredictIt numbers as of morning of election day: Iowa - Trump 77% Ohio - Trump 75% Texas - Trump 75% Georgia - Trump 65% Florida - Trump 64% North Carolina - Trump 57% Arizona - Trump 53% Pennsylvania - Biden 62% Michigan - Biden 72% Wisconsin - Biden 73% Nevada - Biden 75% Minnesota - Biden 77% New Hampshire - Biden 79% Big moves to Trump over the last 2 days in the Sunbelt swing states. Arizona looks like it flipped from Biden to Trump as the favorite overnight and is now showing Trump as the favorite for the first time in months. Georgia and Florida have gone from near 50/50 to about 65% for Trump. NC has gone from around 57% for Biden to the same for Trump. The Midwest states and Pennsylvania are not showing much movement - Biden remains the favorite. Overall odds remain at Biden 64% to Trump 42% (there's a significant vigorish, which is why the odds add up to more than 100%). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Corrik7 11/03/20 12:22:00 PM #193:	Someone just backed into someone's car leaving and left without stopping lol. Turning into chaos. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) <cite>Corrik7 posted [p:946659459] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Someone just backed into someone's car leaving and left without stopping lol. Turning into chaos. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MoogleKupo141 11/03/20 12:27:41 PM #194:	corrik stay safe ! --- For your Azuarc* .* At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza <cite>MoogleKupo141 posted [p:946659723] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>corrik stay safe !</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Corrik7 11/03/20 12:47:06 PM #195:	Sounds like natural voter depression here. 391 voters so far here. 5-7k voterish precinct. 3 hour lines alrdy and paper ballots not computers what lol --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) <cite>Corrik7 posted [p:946660572] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Sounds like natural voter depression here. 391 voters so far here. 5-7k voterish precinct. 3 hour lines alrdy and paper ballots not computers what lol </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/03/20 3:52:17 PM #196:	So since that discussion in Ngamer's topic, we have some more data from Florida. In 3 hours from 12:30 to 2:30 the R turnout only gained 37k. That's much slower than the earlier pace and that may not be enough. The last hour was better than the previous two though, so hopefully it'll pick back up as people get off work. If someone has polling on who independents are expected to vote for in FL, please post it. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946668235] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>So since that discussion in Ngamer's topic, we have some more data from Florida. In 3 hours from 12:30 to 2:30 the R turnout only gained 37k. That's much slower than the earlier pace and that may not be enough. The last hour was better than the previous two though, so hopefully it'll pick back up as people get off work. If someone has polling on who independents are expected to vote for in FL, please post it. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
#197	Post #197 was unavailable or deleted.
red sox 777 11/03/20 4:07:19 PM #198:	Okay, I feel like I'm being deceived by people. Trump won independents in Florida by 4 points in 2016. Yeah, it would be darn hard for him to do better than 2016 if he was at -10 instead of +4 with 25% of the electorate. Nate Silver says that the polling on NPA is all over the place, so unless someone has a good reason to project NPAs at +10 for Biden, I'm going to have to assume that there's no real reason to expect that. If we give Biden +4 with NPAs (still 8 points better than 2016), the R turnout advantage should be large enough now already to win. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946668869] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Okay, I feel like I'm being deceived by people. Trump won independents in Florida by 4 points in 2016. Yeah, it would be darn hard for him to do better than 2016 if he was at -10 instead of +4 with 25% of the electorate. Nate Silver says that the polling on NPA is all over the place, so unless someone has a good reason to project NPAs at +10 for Biden, I'm going to have to assume that there's no real reason to expect that. If we give Biden +4 with NPAs (still 8 points better than 2016), the R turnout advantage should be large enough now already to win. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Corrik7 11/03/20 4:08:12 PM #199:	red sox 777 posted... Okay, I feel like I'm being deceived by people. Trump won independents in Florida by 4 points in 2016. Yeah, it would be darn hard for him to do better than 2016 if he was at -10 instead of +4 with 25% of the electorate. Nate Silver says that the polling on NPA is all over the place, so unless someone has a good reason to project NPAs at +10 for Biden, I'm going to have to assume that there's no real reason to expect that. If we give Biden +4 with NPAs (still 8 points better than 2016), the R turnout advantage should be large enough now already to win. Most polls had independents at +20 for biden just about. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) <cite>Corrik7 posted [p:946668910] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>red sox 777 posted... </cite> <quote>Okay, I feel like I'm being deceived by people. Trump won independents in Florida by 4 points in 2016. Yeah, it would be darn hard for him to do better than 2016 if he was at -10 instead of +4 with 25% of the electorate. Nate Silver says that the polling on NPA is all over the place, so unless someone has a good reason to project NPAs at +10 for Biden, I'm going to have to assume that there's no real reason to expect that. If we give Biden +4 with NPAs (still 8 points better than 2016), the R turnout advantage should be large enough now already to win.</quote>Most polls had independents at +20 for biden just about. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KanzarisKelshen 11/03/20 4:08:41 PM #200:	https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323732513852981256 --- Shine on, you crazy diamond. <cite>KanzarisKelshen posted [p:946668930] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323732513852981256 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
masterplum 11/03/20 4:09:49 PM #201:	Predict it markets of Florida are down 6 cents today for trump --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdWiElvIQAAQpBt.jpg <cite>masterplum posted [p:946668983] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Predict it markets of Florida are down 6 cents today for trump </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/03/20 4:11:36 PM #202:	Corrik7 posted... Most polls had independents at +20 for biden just about. If those are accurate Trump had no chance whatsoever to begin with. But uh, I'll believe that when I see it. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946669073] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Corrik7 posted... </cite> <quote>Most polls had independents at +20 for biden just about.</quote> If those are accurate Trump had no chance whatsoever to begin with. But uh, I'll believe that when I see it. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/03/20 4:31:53 PM #203:	I found an NYT poll that has independents breaking for Biden 47-37. But, the poll has 9% undecided. I would bet most of those are going to Trump. Also, the poll as a whole has Biden +3 which I seriously doubt is going to happen in FL, so it's probably too rosy for him. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946669969] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>I found an NYT poll that has independents breaking for Biden 47-37. But, the poll has 9% undecided. I would bet most of those are going to Trump. Also, the poll as a whole has Biden +3 which I seriously doubt is going to happen in FL, so it's probably too rosy for him. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Board 8 > Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion (+) Yeah! (+)

Board 8 > Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion