Board 8 > Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion

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Corrik7
11/03/20 8:55:34 PM
#304:


red sox 777 posted...
NYT has Trump up to 77% in North Carolina. I hope they're right, because Biden's persistent lead is making me nervous. Still over 200k with 70% reporting.
His margins are so disgusting in some counties I can't see Trump winning in NC.

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Corrik7
11/03/20 8:55:49 PM
#305:


red sox 777 posted...
Trump is also winning in Wayne County (Detroit). What a board vote!
Red mirage state

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charmander6000
11/03/20 8:58:40 PM
#306:


Yeah, Michigan could be Trump at the end of the night, but flip to Biden once all the votes are counted.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:04:42 PM
#307:


Biden's lead in NC down to 152k. Glad to see we're finally moving. 25% of votes left.

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Corrik7
11/03/20 9:08:41 PM
#308:


How is florida not called yet

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PrinceKaro
11/03/20 9:09:15 PM
#309:


Corrik7 posted...
How is florida not called yet

because its Florida

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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:10:08 PM
#310:


And Trump is now at +3 in Florida. Still 8% more to go. +4 is looking likely. +5 looking like it's possible, even.

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charmander6000
11/03/20 9:15:48 PM
#311:


Yeah, Florida belongs to Trump

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LusterSoldier
11/03/20 9:17:36 PM
#312:


Looks like I'll most likely predict Florida correctly in my Electoral College prediction. I've generally learned to not take chances on Florida going blue.
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PrivateBiscuit1
11/03/20 9:27:51 PM
#313:


Joe Biden is such a fucking embarrassing candidate and the DNC learning absolutely nothing from this is going to be the saddest thing about this loss.

I hope I'm wrong on both accounts.

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#314
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charmander6000
11/03/20 9:30:13 PM
#315:


Can Biden hold North Carolina? Trump has been gaining, but Wake County (Raleigh) still has a lot to count.

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cyan1001
11/03/20 9:31:13 PM
#316:


we can only hope biden loses

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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 9:31:16 PM
#317:


Needle thread

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323810781046149121

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Wanglicious
11/03/20 9:31:52 PM
#318:


you're not wrong on the first one no matter what. Biden if he wins means he barely managed to beat a man who, in his election year:

mishandled a pandemic
had race riots
is in the middle of a depression
and trump got sick one month before the election putting his age and unhealthy habits up front.

by all accounts he should be crushing it but he's not. he's a horrible candidate. if he loses, i chalk it to the greatest master act of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:32:11 PM
#319:


Biden's lead in NC is down to 85k. Nearly halved from 25 minutes ago. Still 20% left. At that pace, Trump would break through to the lead with 13-14% left.

Trump's lead is over 315k in Georgia, but there's still not much in votes from the Atlanta area so far. Makes me kind of nervous.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:33:08 PM
#320:


Lead change in Texas with 73% in! Trump now ahead.

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cyan1001
11/03/20 9:33:39 PM
#321:


Wanglicious posted...
you're not wrong on the first one no matter what. Biden if he wins means he barely managed to beat a man who, in his election year:

mishandled a pandemic
had race riots
is in the middle of a depression
and trump got sick one month before the election putting his age and unhealthy habits up front.

by all accounts he should be crushing it but he's not. he's a horrible candidate. if he loses, i chalk it to the greatest master act of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory.
or maybe there is no good canidates when it comes to the democrats

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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:34:02 PM
#322:


Also, the big surge in Ohio is in progress. Trump has cut 300k out of a 400k vote lead. Still only 60% in.

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#323
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#324
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PrivateBiscuit1
11/03/20 9:37:28 PM
#325:


Wanglicious posted...
you're not wrong on the first one no matter what. Biden if he wins means he barely managed to beat a man who, in his election year:

mishandled a pandemic
had race riots
is in the middle of a depression
and trump got sick one month before the election putting his age and unhealthy habits up front.

by all accounts he should be crushing it but he's not. he's a horrible candidate. if he loses, i chalk it to the greatest master act of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory.
This is what I'm talking about. The fact that the candidate is only "fine" right now is just absolutely pathetic.

I may be more pessimistic about the results now, but I was feeling the same way about Trump's win last election and it ended up happening much of the same way.

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#326
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fuming
11/03/20 9:39:21 PM
#327:


has any bracket made a mistake yet?
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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:41:18 PM
#328:


All the people with Biden winning Florida already have a big hole in their map.

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Maniac64
11/03/20 9:42:41 PM
#329:


This is why I just assumed Trump would win. Makes tonight much less upsetting.

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#330
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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:44:48 PM
#331:


Told you guys to wait on Ohio a bit!

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Corrik7
11/03/20 9:45:46 PM
#332:


Needles on ny time is 95+% to Trump on florida and north Carolina and 80+% georgia to Trump

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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:48:45 PM
#333:


Trump up 360k in Georgia, a lot more than his final margin of 222k in 2016. I'm thinking Biden is going to catch up some here when Atlanta votes come in in force. Hillary only won the metro area by 380k in 2016 though, and a bunch of Fulton and Cobb are already in. So I'm optimistic, but not ready to call it yet.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:54:48 PM
#334:


30k left in NC. 13k left in OH. Biden's PA lead is also down to 17k although I'm fully aware of that whole red mirage we're expecting.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:57:22 PM
#335:


And there it is. Lead change in Pennsylvania.

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Corrik7
11/03/20 9:59:20 PM
#336:


My father is watching Fox news and they are doomsdaying in georgia apparently. Nyt and cnn isn't.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 9:59:58 PM
#337:


Although no results are in yet, I am now quite confident Trump flips Nevada.

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#338
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#339
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red sox 777
11/03/20 10:04:19 PM
#341:


And Trump with a +115k update to surge into a 102k lead in Ohio.

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LusterSoldier
11/03/20 10:04:33 PM
#342:


red sox 777 posted...
And there it is. Lead change in Pennsylvania.


With very few votes from Philadelphia, which is going to destroy Trump whenever they come in by the masses.
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red sox 777
11/03/20 10:07:09 PM
#343:


I've been saying it for the last 4 years and it's obvious that Biden is not going to do any better than barely scrape by and probably won't even do that, so I think I'm entitled to an "I told you so," whether or not Trump ends up pulling this one out. The Democrats ran the exact same campaign as 2016, and they're getting a very similar result. That should not be a surprise. If you want a different result, you need to listen to the electorate and change your strategy.

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Corrik7
11/03/20 10:09:58 PM
#344:


NC down to 1k vote difference

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red sox 777
11/03/20 10:11:12 PM
#345:


1369 votes left in NC. 14% left. On pace.

Biden is up 11% with the mail vote drop in Arizona (69% of estimated votes). Cautiously optimistic, as that day-of vote is going to be very strong for Trump. That, and the big cities of Phoenix and Tucson are in the initial drop, while some red counties haven't reported anything yet.

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jcgamer107
11/03/20 10:11:15 PM
#346:


boy the DNC just keeps wheeling out winners

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Sunroof
11/03/20 10:12:44 PM
#347:


When will we pretty much know who wins?
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Sunroof
11/03/20 10:13:08 PM
#348:


And is it looking like Trump is going to win?
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Corrik7
11/03/20 10:13:22 PM
#349:


NC Trump now

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Wanglicious
11/03/20 10:14:25 PM
#350:


Trump answer: tonight
real answer: like 2 weeks
Biden/media answer: December


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Corrik7
11/03/20 10:14:36 PM
#351:


Polls are starting to look very wrong now

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red sox 777
11/03/20 10:15:52 PM
#352:


Trump is at 68% on PredictIt. Although PredictIt has crazy levels of vigorish right now. Trump 68 cents Biden 51 cents LOL. That house advantage is unconscionably high.

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Kureejii Lea
11/03/20 10:16:42 PM
#353:


Corrik7 posted...
Polls are starting to look very wrong now

I am shocked
absolutely shocked
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BlAcK TuRtLe
11/03/20 10:18:59 PM
#354:


If it wasn't for the BLM riots, and Biden's explicit endorsement of them, he would be winning comfortably right now

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