Board 8 > Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion

(+) Yeah! (+)

With only a little over 4 months remaining until the 2020 general election in the US, I think the time has come for this to receive its own topic. This topic is intended for discussion of the 2020 US election - Presidential, Congressional, State, and Local - with an eye towards predictive models and theories for why people vote (or don't vote) the way they do. I'd like to keep the discussion here focused on elections, so news discussion should be limited to how it might affect election. Please refrain from moral arguments.

With that, let the discussion begin.

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So anybody whos been paying attention will tell you that its very bad for Trump, worse than it ever was against Hillary.

Unfortunately this brings an almost daredevil-esque how will he get out of this one??? feeling where there may be some ridiculous lucky break that helps him survive. Hopefully he doesnt pull it off.

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So is Elliot Engel losing his primary today? I don't know if his opponent could have gotten a better set up than "If I didn't have a primary I wouldn't care."

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It looks like Eliot Engel lost. Also, a 24-year-old won a Republican primary in North Carolina against a Trump-endorsed candidate.

This election feels rather strange to me - based on a lot of my metrics, Trump should have a fairly easy win, but his poll numbers against Biden are bad and have been bad for months now. Trump lost to Hillary in the popular vote by a little under 3%, and based on the state by state numbers in 2016, he could have lost by nearly 4% and kept his EC win. So we should probably be reading Biden +4 (maybe +5 if the country has gotten more polarized) as the breakeven point. But Biden is at +9 right now, which is a crushing win for him.

I do believe that there are a lot of conservatives who are going to hem and haw right now about how they don't like Trump and his antics but come election day are going to decide that he's still better than a Democrat. That would show up in the polls, but only very late in the season. +9 though is hard to discount.

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bump

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Trump has zero chance and will lose in a landslide.

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PredictIt still has Trump at 39%. I think we should wait a few months before thinking Trump has no chance. He still has a lot going for him (Joe Biden, the left being so overtly aggressive recently, the stock market doing really well, unemployment being at 50-year lows before coronavirus, the failed impeachment). He's shaken off bad polling and utterly indefensible stuff before.

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The debates, conventions, VP nomination, covid vaccine, Epstein's madam's trial and testimony all can still happen between now and the election. Let us not forget that Biden was only at 20 cents on the dollar to win the Democratic nomination at one point (fairly late into the season too), so this is far from over.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

The debates, conventions, VP nomination, covid vaccine, Epstein's madam's trial and testimony all can still happen between now and the election. Let us not forget that Biden was only at 20 cents on the dollar to win the Democratic nomination at one point (fairly late into the season too), so this is far from over.

Nah this is done.

The only possible way Trump wins this election is Biden actually passing out during the debates, and even that might not be enough.

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PostContestUlti posted...

The only possible way Trump wins this election is Biden actually passing out during the debates, and even that might not be enough.

I think there are way worse things for Biden that are legitimately possible. What if he forgets where he is mid-sentence? Can't remember the name of the country?

I also think you're underestimating the Epstein thing.

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bump

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So the polling remains bad for Trump, but the prediction markets are not so bad (Trump is still at 40% chance of winning on PredictIt), and the stock market is signalling a Trump win. I don't know if a US President has lost a reelection bid before with the stock market as strong as this.

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Trump will lose, just like Trump and L-Block and Draven and Undertale

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Tom Bombadil posted...

Trump will lose, just like Trump and L-Block and Draven and Undertale

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Tom Bombadil posted...

Trump will lose, just like Trump and L-Block and Draven and Undertale

I mean...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3295-division-4-final-crono-l-block-pikachu-alucard

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7296-division-8-round-1-amaterasu-vs-draven

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7935-division-3-round-1-undertale-vs-octopath-traveler


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I'm always a little confused when people are quick to bring up issues that Biden has with public speaking but also fail to mention anything about Trump's horrible ability at it as well. Joe Biden struggles, no doubt about it, but he at least has a stutter that can be pointed to. Do people really think Trump filling the void of coherence with meaningless fluff words as he struggles to emphasize or explain his point is the sign of a strong public speaker?

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Trump is not eloquent but that's part of his appeal - most people are not eloquent themselves and have some distrust for eloquent people. Trump is outstanding at saying things in a way that his words can mean different things to different people. You can interpret his words to hear what you want to hear.

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People say we need to bring the bibobbity back, and I say to them, jaboobaty doobity do, biggest crowd size ever.

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Biden being "off the cuff" has always been part of his appeal as well. Look at the way he was parodied on SNL during the Obama presidency.

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red sox 777 posted...

Trump is not eloquent but that's part of his appeal - most people are not eloquent themselves and have some distrust for eloquent people. Trump is outstanding at saying things in a way that his words can mean different things to different people. You can interpret his words to hear what you want to hear.

How is his ability to say things that can be misinterpreted a good thing?

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ZaziGuado posted...

How is his ability to say things that can be misinterpreted a good thing?

People hear what they want to hear so they hear that he is going to do good things for them. If he ends up not doing them, they check what he said and decide he didn't break a promise; they just misinterpreted what he said.

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ZaziGuado posted...

How is his ability to say things that can be misinterpreted a good thing?

red sox believes Trump having no accountability for anything is a good thing.

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HashtagSEP posted...

red sox believes Trump having no accountability for anything is a good thing.

Whoa there. This topic is for discussion about the election. It's not for discussing the vices or virtues of any politician or policy in any capacity other than how it affects the election.

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red sox 777 posted...

People hear what they want to hear so they hear that he is going to do good things for them. If he ends up not doing them, they check what he said and decide he didn't break a promise; they just misinterpreted what he said.

Okay but that doesn't answer the question. Just because they misinterpreted doesn't mean their expectations were not unmet.

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ZaziGuado posted...

Okay but that doesn't answer the question. Just because they misinterpreted doesn't mean their expectations were not unmet.

Well, if they decide they were in the wrong, they won't blame Trump for misleading them. Yes, they might still decide that he's not the best choice for reelection, but it's not nearly as bad a look as if they felt he lied to them.

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red sox 777 posted...

Well, if they decide they were in the wrong, they won't blame Trump for misleading them. Yes, they might still decide that he's not the best choice for reelection, but it's not nearly as bad a look as if they felt he lied to them.

So are you proposing that he would lose less support this way than if he was actually able to accurately articulate his intentions from the start? Because I think it's more logical to say if people didn't misinterpret him, his ability to gain and hold support would be greater.

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ZaziGuado posted...

So are you proposing that he would lose less support this way than if he was actually able to accurately articulate his intentions from the start? Because I think it's more logical to say if people didn't misinterpret him, his ability to gain and hold support would be greater.

That would depend on his ability to fulfill his promises. He's generally an overpromiser (remember "you'll be able to file your taxes on a postcard") so I think it's better for him that his meaning is not clear.

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red sox 777 posted...

That would depend on his ability to fulfill his promises. He's generally an overpromiser (remember "you'll be able to file your taxes on a postcard") so I think it's better for him that his meaning is not clear.

So his inability to articulately and accurately express his intentions is a positive for him because he, as you politely put it, overpromises. So either he makes sense and what he said doesn't happen or what he said doesn't make sense and gets misinterpreted which leads to unmet expectations. Neither of these is a positive thing, so I again ask how his saying things that can be easily misinterpreted is a positive characteristic.

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i was a "trump could win" guy in 2016

I don't see it this time

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ZaziGuado posted...

So his inability to articulately and accurately express his intentions is a positive for him because he, as you politely put it, overpromises. So either he makes sense and what he said doesn't happen or what he said doesn't make sense and gets misinterpreted which leads to unmet expectations. Neither of these is a positive thing, so I again ask how his saying things that can be easily misinterpreted is a positive characteristic.

It's not to the average person, he's saying it's positive to Trump since the people that buy into it are dumb enough to accept being blamed for the "misinterpretations."

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Basically, what he's saying is that if Trump makes a promise, but bungles the articulation of it, then if anybody later that voted for him based on that promise gets upset for him not upholding that promise, his people can go "He never made that promise. You just interpreted it that way."

And the voters will go "Oh, I guess I did."

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red sox 777 posted...

I don't know if a US President has lost a reelection bid before with the stock market as strong as this.

how is the stock market doing so well when the US is facing the greatest economic crisis since the great depression?

not saying you're wrong, i'm just confused by this.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

how is the stock market doing so well when the US is facing the greatest economic crisis since the great depression?

not saying you're wrong, i'm just confused by this.

90% of the market is owned by the top 10%

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

90% of the market is owned by the top 10%

Also, hasn't the Fed injected literally trillions of dollars to keep everything afloat?

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Seanchan posted...

Also, hasn't the Fed injected literally trillions of dollars to keep everything afloat?

This is the main reason, probably. Also, the market is forward looking. It may be the market expects a recovery soon.

Also, I think the cash flow situation for a lot of Americans has actually improved from before the virus because of all the money the government and Fed had put into the economy. With the PPP grants the government effectively covered small business payrolls for 24 weeks. With the unemployment bonus a lot of people are actually making more than they did when they were working. The Fed is now directly buying corporate bonds with printed money. Basically the only sector that isn't getting a huge cash infusion is medium sized companies too big to receive PPP and too small to get help from the Fed.

The ECB might be able to replicate this if they weren't run by economic conservatives. I say might, because since the Euro is not a world reserve currency like the US dollar, I'm not sure the market would just accept a plan to print trillions of new euros without freaking out and trying to flee to another currency.

Trump's polling has gotten markedly better. Biden's lead in the 538 average is down to 7.9%.

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he is still in a good place RE numbers

he is close in florida and texas by polls, and is leading or close in all the battleground places

its gonna come down to who wins Mich, Minn, and Ohio again

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Get ready for the headline Its Trump. Again.

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Trump still hanging around -8% in the polls to Biden.

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bump

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I'm going to be very impressed if Abby Finkenaur can win over popular news anchor Ashley Hinson.

Name value is just so strong and Abby is a young one term Rep.

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red sox 777 posted...

Trump still hanging around -8% in the polls to Biden.

I think it'd be a bit closer if he had any sense of leadership during the pandemic. He is lucky that this "defund the police" thing is going on. That and OWS will be enough to save him.


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Trump is up to 44 cents on PredictIt. I think Kamala Harris is an awful choice for the VP. Biden is basically doubling down on neoliberalism. He probably won't be able to name a single thing he regrets about the Obama/Biden administration when he gets asked that at the debate.

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Granted, this could also be a difficult question for Trump.

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red sox 777 posted...

Granted, this could also be a difficult question for Trump.

Trump will just say "everything" and then ramble on for a minute or two.

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Seanchan posted...

Trump will just say "everything" and then ramble on for a minute or two.

You mean "nothing"? This is a man who when asked if he had asked for forgiveness from God, said that he hadn't because he had never made any mistakes in his life.

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red sox 777 posted...

You mean "nothing"? This is a man who when asked if he had asked for forgiveness from God, said that he hadn't because he had never made any mistakes in his life.

Sorry, thought you were talking about what Trump would say about the Obama/Biden years, which is that "everything was terrible, he was the worst President in history", etc. He'd probably bring up being insulted at the Correspondent's Dinner and that he was a "nasty" person.

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There are no stats. It will be 100% cheating.

Edit: Oh, wait, I guess that is a stat.

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bump

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