Board 8 > Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion

(+) Yeah! (+)

Biden down to a 150k vote lead in Florida

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Biden's % lead in Pinellas has already fallen from 8% to 5%. Trump might be able to pull out a win there.

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There's the lead change!

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Im daring to hope against hope for Florida

Even though I'm setting myself up for pain

I had Trump winning florida.

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Biden retakes the lead in Florida with a lot of Palm Beach votes coming in, but I doubt he'll hold it for long.

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I LOVE the early vote in Virginia. 66-33. Every single time it's like this. The Republican Party has a stronger early vote in Virginia than Crono does in these contests. I don't think we've ever had a character come back from 66-33. 61/39 was about the largest.

But having seen Virginia before, I have little doubt Biden will put it out and easily.

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Fairfax always reports last (and they will absolutely murder Trump)

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Now Broward has dropped the bulk of its early votes. Biden +33 with the day-of votes still to be counted vs. +35 for Hillary, so he'll be miles behind on percentage, although he may eke out a slightly higher vote margin than Hillary due to higher turnout. But that's not good enough when turnout was higher across the state. Biden's got one more big vote drop in Orlando and then he's done in Florida.

Cautiously optimistic about Trump +2 in Florida.

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The racist president gonna win on the backs of latinos in florida?

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And now Biden's lead in Pinellas is down to 6,000 votes and just 1%. NYT showing 11% still outstanding. I think Trump's got it and has a decent chance of outdoing his +1 there from last time.

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I am confused why NYT is so confidant.

Good news for Biden is Cubans are possibly his most isolated minority group. Means absolutely nothing for any other state.

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masterplum posted...

I am confused why NYT is so confidant.

Good news for Biden is Cubans are possibly his most isolated minority group. Means absolutely nothing for any other state.

Just compare with 2016, and remember that the votes that have been counted already are mostly early votes, which were very favorable to Biden. In the counties that have had substantial day of votes come in, Trump has already made large cuts.

At this point I would predict Trump +3.

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Can't see Trump losing with this miami-dade cut tho the tampa/jacksonville flips are concerning.

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Corrik7 posted...

Can't see Trump losing with this miami-dade cut tho the tampa/jacksonville flips are concerning.

Trump has been gaining steadily in Tampa/St. Pete since they've been counting the election day votes. Went from an 8% lead to 1% in like 40 minutes in Pinellas. I think he pulls that one out, and loses by less than 2016 in Hillsborough. Haven't tracked Jacksonville.

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God damnit can yinz only talk in election day topics not the politics topics

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I won't lie I waivered on voting for Biden but ended up doing it in PA. Dunno if it was a mistake but I did it.

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Poll updates for the election:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J8zcrgLK67G7Cl-BnKuJngOnpMkNZrrkQyJSCUJCxWg/pub?gid=1778572671
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Yeah feeling really solid about my 280 for Trump. I nominate Warren for the next election

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First votes in from Pennsylvania (in Pittsburg). Biden crushing it, but only 9% reporting.

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No shock here but Mitch kept his seat

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red sox 777 posted...

First votes in from Pennsylvania (in Pittsburg). Biden crushing it, but only 9% reporting.

Pittsburgh will be blue ofc

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Hurrah for Mitch!

Kentucky voters wisely chose to keep their all-powerful ruler of the Senate.

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LOL Biden's vote lead (not percentage) in Miami is actually lower than it was when they started counting. Trump is actually winning the day-of vote.

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They could almost call florida unless broward has a ton left

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If they hadn't wrongly called it in 2000 they would have already called it.

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Broward is 99% reported

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red sox 777 posted...

I LOVE the early vote in Virginia. 66-33. Every single time it's like this. The Republican Party has a stronger early vote in Virginia than Crono does in these contests. I don't think we've ever had a character come back from 66-33. 61/39 was about the largest.

But having seen Virginia before, I have little doubt Biden will put it out and easily.

Yeah, Virginia has been called for Biden despite him being in the mid-30s

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80% of the votes in so far in PA are from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. It's a bit early to call it.

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North Carolina looks really bad for Trump so far

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Corrik7 posted...

North Carolina looks really bad for Trump so far

Nyt has switched to trump

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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html

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hey guys just popping in to ask who is winning

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it's kanye
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The Georgia needle is up to 86% for Trump. The North Carolina needle has moved in Trump's favor and is now at 58% for Trump.

And Trump is now at +2 in Florida. +3 is looking good, +4 is looking possible.

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Idk how. He looks like he is doing terrible in north Carolina

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Corrik7 posted...

Idk how. He looks like he is doing terrible in north Carolina

In every state that counts mail votes first, Trump is going to have a huge surge.

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I wonder if the needle for GA/NC take into account the FL results (since they're correlated).

Hopefully it does, since the Miami-Dade shift is presumably not as predictive for other states as the average shift

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If trump wins I am gonna get slayed by people. Ugh

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Whoa. Allegheny County (that's Pittsburgh) flipped red.....way red. Currently Trump is winning 69-30 and has an 80k lead in Allegheny County. 28% of estimated votes in according to the NYT.

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Corrik7 posted...

If trump wins I am gonna get slayed by people. Ugh

Why? If he wins there's no need to blame you for anything.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I wonder if the needle for GA/NC take into account the FL results (since they're correlated).

Hopefully it does, since the Miami-Dade shift is presumably not as predictive for other states as the average shift

It's not only Miami. Trump is already outperforming 2016 in Hillsborough (Tampa) and Orange (Orlando). I think he will be outperforming 2016 in Pinellas (St. Petersburg) once more day-of votes come in and he'll make a good run at it in Jacksonville.

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red sox 777 posted...

Why? If he wins there's no need to blame you for anything.

Cuz I told them they were dumb basically

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i thought pittsburgh was big on guns.
if so, being super red is expected.

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red sox 777 posted...

Whoa. Allegheny County (that's Pittsburgh) flipped red.....way red. Currently Trump is winning 69-30 and has an 80k lead in Allegheny County. 28% of estimated votes in according to the NYT.

Remember pa will red.mirage cuz they count mail in ballots later in pa. Couldn't count them early

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Wanglicious posted...

i thought pittsburgh was big on guns.
if so, being super red is expected.

NO

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NYT has Trump up to 77% in North Carolina. I hope they're right, because Biden's persistent lead is making me nervous. Still over 200k with 70% reporting.

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Trump is also winning in Wayne County (Detroit). What a board vote!

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