Board 8 > Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion

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tennisboy213
11/03/20 5:03:10 PM
#204:


current setup:



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When somebody's the president of the United States, the authority is total.
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#205
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Yesmar_
11/03/20 5:25:15 PM
#206:


https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323738622923853825

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Yesmar
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MoogleKupo141
11/03/20 5:52:26 PM
#207:


https://twitter.com/mikaelthalen/status/1323707209046401024?s=21

ulti maybe dont just accept every random picture you see on Twitter as legit
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charmander6000
11/03/20 6:10:31 PM
#208:


Trump winning Indiana 73-25

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charmander6000
11/03/20 6:14:50 PM
#209:


Trump leading in Kentucky 66%-33%.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 6:16:55 PM
#210:


Are those with the early/mail votes counted, or just election day votes?

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MoogleKupo141
11/03/20 6:17:48 PM
#211:


yeah can you provide some context for like how big a deal those numbers are? what percentage of votes have been counted?
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red sox 777
11/03/20 6:19:35 PM
#212:


I am going to do something quite rare for me and praise a mainstream media outlet. Thank you to the New York Times for allowing access to your election result map without paying for it. I find their map to be by far the best, and I will consider buying a subscription out of goodwill.

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charmander6000
11/03/20 6:19:55 PM
#213:


red sox 777 posted...
Are those with the early/mail votes counted, or just election day votes?

Unless the map I'm viewing is glitching all of Kentucky's votes are mail votes. Trump currently has 76.8% of the vote there.

Plot twist Trump wins the mail-in votes.

What a crazy board vote

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LusterSoldier
11/03/20 6:21:27 PM
#214:


charmander6000 posted...
Trump winning Indiana 73-25


charmander6000 posted...
Trump leading in Kentucky 66%-33%.


Those results seem like in-person Election Day votes to me. Trump isn't going to win that big in either of those states once all the votes are in.
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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 6:22:03 PM
#215:


MoogleKupo141 posted...
yeah can you provide some context for like how big a deal those numbers are? what percentage of votes have been counted?
NYT says 1% for Indiana (and I assume election day only)

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red sox 777
11/03/20 6:22:42 PM
#216:


FWIW, my dad just told me he voted for Biden (in NH).

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charmander6000
11/03/20 6:23:16 PM
#217:


LusterSoldier posted...
Those results seem like in-person Election Day votes to me. Trump isn't going to win that big in either of those states once all the votes are in.

Only one county is reporting in Indiana though Trump is doing about 4% better there than the statewide result (which is mostly mail-in ballots now)

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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 6:26:01 PM
#218:


red sox 777 posted...
FWIW, my dad just told me he voted for Biden (in NH).
Good work red sox dad!

Which party does he normally vote for?

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Yesmar_
11/03/20 6:26:36 PM
#219:


Trump appears to be running behind his 2016 numbers in some of the Indiana areas reporting. Early going though.

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charmander6000
11/03/20 6:27:37 PM
#220:


LEAD CHANGE

in Kentucky

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red sox 777
11/03/20 6:28:01 PM
#221:


LordoftheMorons posted...
Good work red sox dad!

Which party does he normally vote for?

I think he's a true swing voter - maybe slight blue lean.

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Yesmar_
11/03/20 6:28:40 PM
#222:


Looks like Lexington just dropped a lot of votes, lol.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 6:29:31 PM
#223:


Yesmar_ posted...
Trump appears to be running behind his 2016 numbers in some of the Indiana areas reporting. Early going though.

Based on the polling, he should massively underperform 2016 in both Indiana and Kentucky. The only state in the Midwest or Upper South he's polling well in compared to 2016 is..... Illinois. I guess Hillary had a home state bonus?

Nationally, the polling is showing that Trump's best state relative to 2016 is probably going to be..... California.

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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 6:33:45 PM
#224:


red sox 777 posted...
Nationally, the polling is showing that Trump's best state relative to 2016 is probably going to be..... California.
I definitely doubt that!

Though I actually maybe wouldn't mind that for ballot measure purposes; some risk of some dumb ones passing in an extremely blue electorate I think.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 6:35:51 PM
#225:


So important thing to note about Florida - there are apparently no or very few election day votes reported from 7 counties, all of which voted for Trump in 2016. Two of them are fairly large (Polk at 282k votes in 2016 and 222k votes in 2016). I would expect Trump to be able to put together +50k in party registration turnout numbers from those 2 counties, and maybe 10k across the other 5, which are small counties.

With that said, the AWV does not appear to be helping the Republican cause here. The NPA group is really crushing it with the AWV.

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Yesmar_
11/03/20 6:36:51 PM
#226:


Jessamine County Kentucky from Trump +40 to Trump + 21 with 62% in.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1323768836055830530

Not sure where the 62% number cam from. Got that part of it from another forum.


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red sox 777
11/03/20 6:44:33 PM
#227:


This is the first time I can remember when Kentucky wasn't instant-called. Or is it that they can't call the state until the Central Time polls close?

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Kureejii Lea
11/03/20 6:45:16 PM
#228:


charmander6000 posted...


Plot twist Trump wins the mail-in votes.


lol i will wait for the media to tell me how that was his strategy all along !
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#229
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charmander6000
11/03/20 6:47:59 PM
#230:


red sox 777 posted...
This is the first time I can remember when Kentucky wasn't instant-called. Or is it that they can't call the state until the Central Time polls close?

I think they wait until all of the polls are closed. Regardless they'll have to wait until Lexington's county votes get diluted by the rest of the state.

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masterplum
11/03/20 6:47:59 PM
#231:


red sox 777 posted...
This is the first time I can remember when Kentucky wasn't instant-called. Or is it that they can't call the state until the Central Time polls close?

Have to have all polls closed

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red sox 777
11/03/20 6:50:38 PM
#232:


Lead change looks imminent.

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charmander6000
11/03/20 6:52:26 PM
#233:


Trump retakes Kentucky to no one's surprise.

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charmander6000
11/03/20 7:01:53 PM
#234:


Kentucky called for Trump

Vermont called for Biden

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charmander6000
11/03/20 7:04:11 PM
#235:


Trump with an early lead in Florida

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red sox 777
11/03/20 7:04:39 PM
#236:


My prediction from last night has Trump +20 for Kentucky (vs. Trump +30) last time. So that'll be my benchmark to evaluate how he's doing. Someone Indiana got omitted from my list with the predicted margin of victories, so I don't have a pre-result benchmark to evaluate against. Must have gotten deleted while copy/pasting or something.

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RikkuAlmighty
11/03/20 7:06:14 PM
#237:


kentucky is like the one state i never ever want to visit
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charmander6000
11/03/20 7:07:57 PM
#238:


Trump with an early lead in Virginia

Trump extending his lead in Florida (mostly pro-Republican counties are reporting)

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red sox 777
11/03/20 7:08:01 PM
#239:


Comparisons in Florida (very early):

Lake:

2016 - Trump +23
2020 - Trump +11

Pasco:

2016 - Trump +21
2020 - Trump +13

Brevard:

2016 - Trump +20
2020 - Trump +10

Lee:

2016 - Trump +20
2020 - Trump +14

Pinellas:

2016 - Trump +1
2020 - Biden +9

Not sure if the early voting or day of voting is being counted first.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 7:10:05 PM
#240:


Given that it jumped straight to a very large number of votes, I think probably it is the early votes/mail votes being counted first. In which case Trump may be okay. If those percentages stay that way he is doomed.

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charmander6000
11/03/20 7:11:07 PM
#241:


Hawkins leading Monroe County in Florida

>_>

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charmander6000
11/03/20 7:12:58 PM
#242:


Cobb County giving Biden the lead in Georgia.

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charmander6000
11/03/20 7:15:05 PM
#243:


Pro- Biden counties gives him the lead in Florida

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red sox 777
11/03/20 7:15:35 PM
#244:


I am like 90% sure the Florida numbers reported so far are almost entirely early votes. In which case I think it's probably looking good for Trump, but hard to predict. If these aren't almost entirely early votes we could probably call the election.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 7:16:14 PM
#245:


Trump leading 91-28 in Palm Beach County LOL. Is that Mar a Lago voting?

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#246
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masterplum
11/03/20 7:18:58 PM
#247:


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red sox 777
11/03/20 7:20:18 PM
#248:


Miami-Dade just reported over 1 million votes (more than 100% of turnout last time). Biden is leading by 90k. Last time, Hillary won by 290k. Those are almost assuredly the early votes being reported, and while Democrats were showing a narrow advantage in election day turnout in Dade county, it's not going to be by a lot. Maybe 10k votes tops. So Biden has to make back 190k votes lost in Miami-Dade plus Trump's margin of 113k from last time. Seems like a tall order.

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tyder21
11/03/20 7:21:21 PM
#249:


NYT saying 81% chance of Trump taking FL.

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charmander6000
11/03/20 7:22:59 PM
#250:


Trump still has the pan-handle to make a comeback. Biden is looking good, but it's not over in Florida.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 7:23:04 PM
#251:


With that performance in Miami, 81% might be undershooting it.

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Corrik7
11/03/20 7:23:21 PM
#252:


Trump cut Biden hard in miami dade. Almost a 250k vote swing so far.

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masterplum
11/03/20 7:24:05 PM
#253:


Miami dade numbers are terrible for biden

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