Board 8 > Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion

(+) Yeah! (+)

red sox 777 posted...

I've been saying it for the last 4 years and it's obvious that Biden is not going to do any better than barely scrape by and probably won't even do that, so I think I'm entitled to an "I told you so," whether or not Trump ends up pulling this one out. The Democrats ran the exact same campaign as 2016, and they're getting a very similar result. That should not be a surprise. If you want a different result, you need to listen to the electorate and change your strategy.

Ive been saying Trump repeats. I think it got down to a coin flip but back in his favor with the riots. Its not a fun thing to say.

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Literally Bernie could have been out there burning down targets and he would be winning comfortably right now

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I am amazed that Gary johnson's votes seem reliably to be going to Trump

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Trump is up 5% in ohio now

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MawiIe posted...

Literally Bernie could have been out there burning down targets and he would be winning comfortably right now

you know Bernie sanders is a communist

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cyan1001 posted...

you know Bernie sanders is a communist

To the republicans, any democrat is a communist

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neonreaper posted...

Ive been saying Trump repeats. I think it got down to a coin flip but back in his favor with the riots. Its not a fun thing to say.

I think this is significant too.

The explicit lack of an answer to "will you pack the supreme court" probably didn't make any Republicans that were considering voting blue feel any better either. Like fuck at least give a bullshit "We don't plan to" answer.

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Arizona doesn't look good for Trump.

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As of 10:15 Eastern, only 1% of votes reporting in Dekalb County (Georgia)

So expect GA to get a lot closer.

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MawiIe posted...

Literally Bernie could have been out there burning down targets and he would be winning comfortably right now

Trump basiclally ran on the idea that Biden was Bernie Sanders.

There is little evidence to say Bernie does any better here.

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https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1323826066826366978?s=21

lol if this is the result I think this is exactly what my prediction in the other topic was

I knew this was going to suuuuuuck
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Bernie would not have done better. You have to disavow illegal immigrants to get better. Listen. It's not a winning strategy. Illegal is illegal

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I think Trump is okay in Arizona. He just needs +27 with the remaining votes. Given how day-of votes have tracked tonight, that's plenty doable.

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trump is so freaking fortunate. first he gets to face one of the worst candidates ever Clinton and now Biden.....who LIKES Biden?? anti-trump crowd will vote for the devil I know but how many people actually LIKE Biden? he is so old, looks like he suffers from dementia and has never done anything in his political career to inspire people. the only thing going for him is, literally, "not trump"


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Tag

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red13n posted...

Trump basiclally ran on the idea that Biden was Bernie Sanders.

There is little evidence to say Bernie does any better here.

Young dems/leftists hate Biden. Bernie would do much better with them.

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Explain arizona being okay right now

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red13n posted...

Trump basiclally ran on the idea that Biden was Bernie Sanders.

There is little evidence to say Bernie does any better here.

Policy means near nothing to the moderate voter. Bernie supports BLM that's a man abiding by his principles. Biden says BLM and he's a weakling folding to pressure.

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Corrik7 posted...

Bernie would not have done better. You have to disavow illegal immigrants to get better. Listen. It's not a winning strategy. Illegal is illegal

Bernie would have won either time

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colliding posted...

Young dems/leftists hate Biden. Bernie would do much better with them.

and then lose the old vote biden picks up?

Like, your trading votes here. There isn't any evidence that this is a result of voters not turning out for BIden either.

All signs right now point to people being super excited to vote for Trump.

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red13n posted...

Trump basiclally ran on the idea that Biden was Bernie Sanders.

There is little evidence to say Bernie does any better here.

I mean he doesn't have skeletons in his closet and he can coherently get his points across, which is more than can be said about Biden. The entire Biden campaign was as clear as mud from the start.

Keep in mind Biden won the nomination by barely doing anything and beating the improved young person vote with a record breaking olds vote. Nobody is freaking excited about him. At least people were excited about Bernie and could try to move forward with positivity and anything but "Oh we need to end the nightmare. We need to get Trump out!"

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Corrik7 posted...

Explain arizona being okay right now

75% of the vote is in. Biden is a little under 9 points up. The vast majority of that is early/mail-in vote. Trump just needs to win the remaining votes with a +27 clip, or 63-36. He's been running above that with the day-of vote in other states, like Ohio and North Carolina. It's still totally winnable for either candidate.

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jcgamer107 posted...

Bernie would have won either time

Bernie would have won a lot of non voters and third parties. BUT a lot of Dems would have voted republican then

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Is it just me or does it look like Trump is definitely winning?

Sunroof posted...

Is it just me or does it look like Trump is definitely winning?

It looks more likely than not but not definitely yet.

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Thanks. Im playing from behind here.

To be clear, I'm not saying Bernie would have been the best man for the job or even better than the 2nd worst person for the job.

He just would have done better, and he would have won

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9 point lead for Trump in Pennsylvania now. 5 points in Ohio - looks like I undershot Trump in Ohio.

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still feel like my map is a possibility.

bluntly, if they are both going to lose then i'd rather see how bernie could do over a vanilla not trump option.
there's at least SOMETHING he stands for and we can get a better idea of where people are at with different ideas. with biden all we get is "well a lot of people hate trump."

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Like Trump constantly made shots about Hunter Biden and it blew up into this big thing. What could he say about Bernie like that?

Bernie would have actual policies and not the incoherent ass pulls that the Biden/Harris campaign had, and Bernie could explain those a hell of a lot better than Biden and his vagueness.

And there would be people who actually WANT Bernie's policies and could spread the word about it. What could people possibly say about Joe Biden other than "He's not Donald Trump"?

Anyone thinking Bernie would do worse here is just wrong.

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fuming posted...

still feel like my map is a possibility.

I like mine a lot

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PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

Anyone thinking Bernie would do worse here is just wrong.

Don't think anyone said this.

But he'd have to do better. And there just isn't any evidence that this would be the case. Any gain you could argue would have an accompanying loss of voters in the same argument.

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Bernie couldn't win the fucking primaries. He wasn't even COMPETITIVE. This is the thing I don't understand about the Bernie bros, he wasn't enough to energize his supporters to actually vote in the primaries, why would the actual election be any different.

The other thing that absolutely tanks this moronic opinion, is that Trump is winning despite record turnouts. Biden got people to vote, it just wasn't enough and the absolute joke that the democrat platform on illegals and BLM riots absolutely destroyed any credibility they had with moderates.

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red13n posted...

And there just isn't any evidence that this would be the case

sure there is. Bernie's projected performance against Trump prior to the 2016 election was better than Hillary's. obviously the polls were wrong about Hillary but they'd have to be substantially more wrong for Bernie to have lost.

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Bernie couldn't win the fucking primaries. He wasn't even COMPETITIVE. This is the thing I don't understand about the Bernie bros, he wasn't enough to energize his supporters to actually vote in the primaries, why would the actual election be any different.

The other thing that absolutely tanks this moronic opinion, is that Trump is winning despite record turnouts. Biden got people to vote, it just wasn't enough and the absolute joke that the democrat platform on illegals and BLM riots absolutely destroyed any credibility they had with moderates.

He absolutely got more people to vote in the primaries until the DNC formed the Voltron behind Biden against him.

And it's fucking wild that you think people are going out there to vote because of Joe Biden rather than despite him. As if there isn't a concentrated campaign from every celebrity and politician saying "go out and vote". At this point, the same thing would happen out of a desperation to get Trump out of there. There is not a single person in this country who said "I'm going to go out because Joe Biden told me to vote."

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There are a lot of people who like Bernie that are not democratic primary voters. Whether he would be doing better this election or not is unknowable, but his performances in the democratic primaries is not more reflective of how he would do than the national polling in 2016 that showed him doing better than Clinton.

fuming posted...

There are a lot of people who like Bernie that are not democratic primary voters. Whether he would be doing better this election or not is unknowable, but his performances in the democratic primaries is not more reflective of how he would do than the national polling in 2016 that showed him doing better than Clinton.

This is the same argument Biden could make though.

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I just don't think that the democratic primaries are any indication of a general election strength, that was my main point.

PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

He absolutely got more people to vote in the primaries until the DNC formed the Voltron behind Biden against him.

And it's fucking wild that you think people are going out there to vote because of Joe Biden rather than despite him. As if there isn't a concentrated campaign from every celebrity and politician saying "go out and vote". At this point, the same thing would happen out of a desperation to get Trump out of there. There is not a single person in this country who said "I'm going to go out because Joe Biden told me to vote."

So you mean that as soon as the field wasn't completely diluted by 10 similar candidates, Bernie couldn't break 20%? You'd think someone that frequents this board of all places would understand Multi-Poll SFF/LFF.

All Biden needed to do was say that BLM rioters should be arrested, and illegal immigrants should be deported, and he would win in a landslide, and be able to implement some ACTUAL progressive policies like universal healthcare


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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

BLM rioters should be arrested, and illegal immigrants should be deported,

if Biden had said this, why would anyone even vote for him? At that point just vote for trump.

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Also, the proof is in the fucking stats. Votals are way up from 2016, clearly Biden did a great job of energizing the voter base compared to lame duck Clinton. The only problem is the republicans saw what happened in 2018, and also showed up to vote. A lot of people are scared that their lives are going to be ruined by affirmative action run amok

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Trump now up 7 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, 11 points in Michigan, 2 points in Wisconsin. I am really curious how much of the vote that's being counted now in PA is mail-in vote.

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Hot take - some people dont like rioting and looters and people destroying their shit.

The Democrats spent months talking about how they were going to radically transform America, pack the Supreme Court, etc. They shouldn't be surprised that Republicans see this as an existential threat.

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

So you mean that as soon as the field wasn't completely diluted by 10 similar candidates, Bernie couldn't break 20%? You'd think someone that frequents this board of all places would understand Multi-Poll SFF/LFF.

All Biden needed to do was say that BLM rioters should be arrested, and illegal immigrants should be deported, and he would win in a landslide, and be able to implement some ACTUAL progressive policies like universal healthcare

I forgot when Chrono, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Samus all said "YO VOTE FOR MARIO HE'S THE BEST." The primaries are flawed to begin with. There wasn't even a single debate between Biden and Bernie before it was pretty much over. People just overwhelmingly voted after nobody in the primaries supported Bernie before he could get a chance to explain why he's a better candidate than Joe Biden.

And Biden never wanted any progressive policies. He could barely explain with any conviction or coherency any progressive policies he supported.

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They don't have the balls to try that

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

clearly Biden did a great job of energizing the voter base compared to lame duck Clinton.

Covid-19 did literally all the work energizing a vote base. Biden didn't do shit to convince anyone to vote.

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