LogFAQs > #946668869

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Topic	Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion
red sox 777 11/03/20 4:07:19 PM #198:	Okay, I feel like I'm being deceived by people. Trump won independents in Florida by 4 points in 2016. Yeah, it would be darn hard for him to do better than 2016 if he was at -10 instead of +4 with 25% of the electorate. Nate Silver says that the polling on NPA is all over the place, so unless someone has a good reason to project NPAs at +10 for Biden, I'm going to have to assume that there's no real reason to expect that. If we give Biden +4 with NPAs (still 8 points better than 2016), the R turnout advantage should be large enough now already to win. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:946668869] in Election 2... [t:78796615]...</cite> <quote>Okay, I feel like I'm being deceived by people. Trump won independents in Florida by 4 points in 2016. Yeah, it would be darn hard for him to do better than 2016 if he was at -10 instead of +4 with 25% of the electorate. Nate Silver says that the polling on NPA is all over the place, so unless someone has a good reason to project NPAs at +10 for Biden, I'm going to have to assume that there's no real reason to expect that. If we give Biden +4 with NPAs (still 8 points better than 2016), the R turnout advantage should be large enough now already to win. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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