Board 8 > ~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~

(+) Yeah! (+)

Octopath had a huge spike next update, not only winning the lead, but getting 30 votes ahead, which put Shovel Knight in a very tough spot. It had such a hard time getting the lead and it couldnt go anywhere with it. Some people believed the natural trends would give Shovel Knight the edge, but it just didnt get anywhere, and it struggled to take this lead back now too, with only a bit more of an hour left. It was anyones game and at this point almost all of us were watching and were ready to do so until the end, but Octopath seemed to have the advantage. It was just nail biting and waiting for the next five minutes to pass until something following the twitter account posted this right away:

https://twitter.com/YachtClubGames/status/1250194555330129920

Yacht Club Games, the creators of Shovel Knight tweeted about this match. Someone here who follows the account posted it instantly, so wed see the effect right away. Most people agreed it would be game over for Octopath Traveler though. We did not know how much it did, but when the match was this close, this would be deciding. It was only 38 votes ahead. Still, everyone eagerly awaited the effect. After hours of excitement and refreshing, one user summed everything up very well right before the update stroke:

"Whatever happens next, it's been an honor F5ing with you all this evening." TheCodeisBosco

Shovel Knight took the lead back right away. Only with 1 vote, but that was still a 39-vote victory. Plus, that was from the people that were very quick to see the tweet and act. Remember that everything I wrote last paragraph happened within five minutes. The match was over, everyone agreed. True enough, Shovel Knight would gain up to 37 votes next update and quickly burst well above 100. It slowed down again then, but with about half an hour to go, Octopath had nothing to counter with, when the effect still showed. It was over. Shovel Knight came just short of 200 votes and advanced.

Yacht Club Games then made the biggest red herring in the world. Look at the comments section of that twitter post. People took notice that Super Mario Odyssey would be the next opponent and they rightly knew that would be a tough thing for Shovel Knight to get past. The account that answered that theyd still do everything they could to win, although they recognized that Odyssey is a great game at the time. No one here was worried about the match, because if this was what the twitter could do, it wouldnt be enough, since Super Mario Odyssey are leagues ahead of Shovel Knight to begin with, but they ended up forgetting all about it, and no one here cared to give the reminder.

It lost, but Octopath Traveler proved today that it was legit. It mightve gotten some bandwagon, mostly early on, and it had pinned rallies, but it still looks really good today. Most people credited its victory to Undertale anti-voting, but it appears was alright after all, and that its momentum and anti-voting almost canceled each other out. Its in line with what weve seen of Bravely Default. Being a Square RPG on a Nintendo console has always been a good thing. Maybe they should release Final Fantasy XVI on Nintendos most recent console if it ever happens.

Shovel Knight ended up being the only indie game to advance to round 3 despite such a promising round 1. Whether its the strongest one remains to be seen. It seems to between Cuphead, Stardew Valley and Shovel Knight itself, but Shovel Knight ended up being behind several layers of SFF, so its really hard to determine. Cuphead was also below some. Well never really know.

Its hard to tell how the match wouldve ended naturally or even how it wouldve ended if Yacht Club Games didnt tweet in the end. Id call Octopath the favorite if only the tweet doesnt happen, which means Shovel Knight takes the victory without it, since it easily had the least successful subreddit rally. It probably wouldnt come down to the last second if no rallies interfered, but it would still be an overall close match. People tend to forgot Octopath already had a really strong really if they werent around, because that one didnt change the direction of the match, it simply turbo boosted the direction it was going in. Shovel Knight likely wins a good bit easier in round 1, that means if Octopath hadnt just beat Undertale. Though Octopath would still have looked good going out.

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In the midst of what was easily the best match of the contest so far and probably top 3 overall, there was of course talks of rallies and hypocrisy and everything in between. All the things about what you are allowed to think and what you are not. Shovel Knight used a rally to win in the end, so clearly any anti-rally person should be against it right? Oh, but Octopath had a big rally earlier, so it was mostly a counter, meaning Shovel Knight should be the game you cheer for as an anti-rally person. Oh, but wait, Shovel Knight did have a rally up first, so clearly its the villain, right? As an anti-rally person, you must figure out how the match, where the games are within a percentage of each other, would have ended with no outside interference and thats the game you can root for. Except its hard to judge, so someone will disagree with you either way, its probably best to just not be happy at all then. If youre pro-rallies, the only other option, then you had the time of your life, but you better have had the same stance in any other match with rallies regardless of size, otherwise youre a major hypocrite and thats no good.

Its probably obvious what I think of all that. I know, Im beating a dead horse with some of the points but let me just make it clear how much I think all of the above is a major load of s***. First of all, the good old idea that you either have to support all rallies or dislike all rallies. I wont ever hear counterarguments here because it makes no sense. Why am I obligated to enjoy Draven making Mega Man X and Ryu look like complete fodder on his way to swallow a contest whole if I enjoyed two games today rallied a bit back and forth using their subreddits? Nothing else in the worlds works that way. Its no goddamn different that telling me I have to enjoy every single Final Fantasy game if I like one of them and no one is doing that. Its not hypocritical by default. Sure, its probably hypocritical if you hate a certain type of rally influence in one match because it knocks one of your favorite games out, but then rally yourself in another match in similar fashion to help another favorite game of yours out. That does not mean youre a hypocrite if you enjoyed todays match, but hated Undertale and Draven and I really cant stress this enough.

Youre also allowed to dislike the tweet or the pinned rally more than the one rally this match had that didnt do as much, because theyre not the same thing. Its my clear observation that most people just want exciting matches. If rallies make a match more exciting, thats great! Thats likely what happened today, but people got called hypocrites left and right if they had previous anti-rally in any context. If a rally makes what would have been a close match no contest, then thats not great. Its very simple! The last part goes in particular if it flips a result, and even more it goes on for several rounds to take away interesting matches from us. Still, were actually pretty consistent with these things. We disliked the rallies when they didnt flip a result too, just look at Melee last contest or Bloodborne this one. A lot of also has to do with the fact that people want the games to fight on equal ground, so if one game can pull all the outside forces in the world, but the other one can pull none, then its not as well liked as if both pull people in. Thats completely reasonable!

My own stance on rallies is somewhere in between. A lot of the issues with them these days is our very small votals, which makes it easy for a small really to have a big impact. If we still had 100k in total votes each match, then those small 100 vote boosts would barely be noticed and even some of our larger rallies this contest would be negligible. I like the idea that we give our site attention elsewhere and boost votals, but I would enjoy it a lot more, if people stayed around afterward. It makes predicting less fun most of the time because its so random what gains traction. I can appreciate a match like today despite rallies. I had a lot of fun following it all day, but I did not find Melee and Undertale fun for giving me one good match at best while likely ruining all of SMB3 vs. RBY, RBY vs. SMW, CT vs. FFVII, RBY vs. SM64, CT vs. RBY and CT vs. OoT (or however those wouldve turned out). Yes, the first one happened, but it was heavily influence and one of my best predictions ever was heavily clouded by the rally spillover. I suppose, Im generally against them, but its circumstantial and I never really get angry I just care a bit less, and I would mind less if our natural votals werent as bad.

Finally, I was rooting for Shovel Knight from before this match began. I love the game and I had it in my bracket too. Not only that, I would have been eliminated in the guru today if Shovel Knight didnt win because Luster and I have identical brackets post round 2. I could go on a while about my passion for Shovel Knight, but you get the point. I was loudly cheering for Shovel Knight when the excitement was at its peak and I was happy that It won. I never stated that I was happy with the way it won, and I might have expressed earlier in the match that I thought it was a shame that one of the subreddits was pinned instead of zero or two. Suddenly, I was hypocritical for being happy when a game won that rallied itself past the goal line in the end. I was not being rude about it. Seriously? You are not a hypocrite if you hope the game youre cheering for gets the same support the opposing game has had. Period. Its not too surprising, but when not only trolls, but plenty of users were throwing the word hypocrite around back and worth, I wanted to bring it up. I was genuinely a bit sad at the end of that match that it did not seem like I could be happy without fueling that discussion. Was I just supposed to stop rooting for the game in the middle of the match because of how it turned out?

Regardless of what you think about rallies and what you think others can think about rallies, these contests are all about rooting for your favorite games. Ultimately, its all about having fun and hoping that the games that made your decade better does well. Predicting and analyzing and all that stuff is secondary to that. Could we all f***ing stop being jerks to each other for cheering for our favorite games, please? Its a shame we couldnt have this match without having these pointless discussions near the end, but make no mistake, this was a fantastic and memorable match. In a few days, round 2 was already way better than round 1.

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Now that is a monster analysis. A record for sure!

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Rallies sure bring out the worst in the board.

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They do! The reactions are often worse than the rallies.

And yeah, that ended up being really look. The match had plenty to talk about in itself and it was the most obvious match to talk about rallies in.

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Round 2 Division 3 Day 19
Devil May Cry 5 28.69%
Super Mario Odyssey 71.31%

Prediction Percentage 76.50%

Super Mario Odyssey had yet another round of looking really dominant. It seemed to finish a little bit higher as a result of the rallying in Octopath Traveler vs. Shovel Knight, but its a bit hard to tell. It would probably still finish above 70% and thats a really good showing. The goal for Super Mario Odyssey was to do the impossible for a post 64 Mario game; beat the Smash Bros game of the same platform. This round definitely taught us the least of the three rounds leading up to the clash because Ultimate was against a Zelda game, but Odyssey still did what it needed to do and look impressive enough to make us doubt the hierarchy.

The board actually went even higher on Super Mario Odyssey on average, probably because it went so high on a game with a name everyone knows last round. I suppose we just have to acknowledge Devil May Cry had a release worth something again for the first time in quite a while. Its not fantastic, but Devil May Cry 5 looks to have more strength in it than most of us thought and it explains why it took so easily care of Tropical Freeze when we all expected the Donkey Kong game to be alright with its Switch release.

We didnt have that great a read on the Devil May Cry series before this contest actually. The only time theyve appeared in a contest in the past was in the previous Game of the Decade where the first and third one made it in. Neither looked particularly good, but they ended up being alright in the stats, not as much as one might have thought. Perhaps they wouldve looked better earlier in the decade, thats when Dante looked best in the character battles. At this point the fourth game had come out and wasnt as big as the third and DmC: Devil May Cry had just been revealed, so I think we had seen Donte already, which might have caused some backlash if we did. This contest, we fifth one just came out and it was well liked again. It has a big enough name that I could see it having good footing on franchise name alone and with the most well-liked Devil May Cry since the third, finishing where it did isnt so bad. Of course, its buried behind some layers of SFF, so its exact placement is hard to tell.

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Round 2 Division 4 Day 20
Grand Theft Auto V 60.26%
Cuphead 39.74%

Prediction Percentage 80.61%

Cuphead winning this match was a tempting upset to many before the contest, although not many actually ended up taking it. It doesnt look very good now, because it didnt even come close. It was another slap in the face to indie games, but just as much a time to recognize that Grand Theft Auto V is probably pretty strong all things considered. It will never be as good here as it is anywhere else. All of our contest history backs that up, but it wont job to the first thing that has some strength as some people thought and more people feared.

After the first round, Grand Theft Auto V did look like the better game. Especially if you factor in any anti-votes it might have gotten. Considering its awful board vote, it probably has quite a few of those. Cuphead went neck to neck with it when the match began and still held its lead a minute in. GTAV would end up looking safe by the end of the freeze, but it was still only just above 54% at the freeze. It rose to heaven from there. Theres quite the difference. Indie games typically have very good board votes and that goes for Cuphead too, so the board vote was as funny as they get.

Cuphead failing to get 40% is a disappointment when you consider the chances we gave it, it never had, but thats probably more on us than on it. It still looks to be a good contender for the best indie game in the bracket, although theres a lot of weird results ahead of it. All of GTAV vs. P4G, P4G vs. Xenoblade, Ultimate vs. Xenoblade, BotW vs. Ultimate and BotW vs. Witcher are matches where you need to think once again if the result is natural or the case of some other factors. Thats every single match ahead of Cuphead! Two of those pretty clearly favor Cuphead, two of those pretty dont and the final one is something we cant agree on. It makes it as hard as it gets.

Cuphead looked really good in its Game of the Year polls, clearly indicating its on the high end of the indie rank, so the adjusted x-stats probably has it right. It got a ton of exposure and even a bit of Smash reference since then, so it makes sense to think its up there. Its a shame it was seeded #8 so it would run straight into a #1 seed. Even in the weakest division, that was too much for it. It wouldve been cool to see it elsewhere. Imagine if it switched places with Super Meat Boy, going against Sonic Mania would be a neck to neck match.

Grand Theft Auto V looked really good today, and at the same time Persona 4 Golden only beat Red Read Redemption by a hair. Almost everyone expected GTAV to be the better of the two Rockstar games, so that made GTAV the favorite going into next round as it had been before the contest began, despite that we now knew Persona 4 Golden would be a Persona 4 proxy.

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Round 2 Division 4 Day 20
Persona 4 Golden 50.83%
Read Dead Redemption 49.17%

Prediction Percentage 31.05%

Today would be the true test of how much strength Persona 4 Golden had compared to Persona 4. Back in 2015, Persona 4 and Red Dead Redemption looked to be very close, but Persona 4 a small step above. Based on that, Persona 4 Golden would need to basically be a Persona 4 proxy to reach that high, but it obviously doesnt only come down to this. Both games have also gotten critically acclaimed new games in their series since last time, which mightve boosted these two.

Persona 4 Golden was the favorite to win, though most people overestimated how easy it would be for it. Most of us probably thought it proved itself to be on Persona 4 levels in the first round, but its different to be against some fodder game than one of the big names of the decade. There also seems to be a group of people who will pick Persona if it just has the slightest chance of winning, so maybe that helped make it the bigger favorite.

Persona 4 won the board vote and that shouldnt really surprise anyone. Rockstar games have the worst board votes and Persona games have the best. Everyone seemed to think it was fine after behind ahead of the freeze, but I was skeptical. Persona 4 barely gained in the last minutes of the freeze and while it went up from there, it was pretty slow considering there was all the reason in the world to think this would be its best time in the match with great lengths. I posted this in the stats topic at the time, but everyone was saying it fine. This happened for a few updates, but then Read Dead Redemption cut at the hour mark and people finally expressed the worry they should. It was not a big cut, but a Rockstar game cut Board 8s beloved JRPG halfway through the power hour was a major warning sign.

Read Dead Redemption continued to make small cuts in Persona 4s best time of the match. Judging by the votals, theres a good chance there was a little bit of rally spillover from the Shovel Knight rally in the final hour of the previous matches. Nothing big, but it seemed to help Persona 4 a little. Another reason that it was in trouble. There was a real reason to think Red Dead Redemption would win at this point.

It never happened though. Red Dead Redemption made a lot of pushes, but it couldnt actually get to close. The main reason for this is probably the boards passion for Persona and the boards lack of passion for RDR. Throughout the day, a lot of small Persona rallies would come help it out whenever it got close. Usually it doesnt matter much what board 8 prefers in a match, but today it most likely did. We ended up having Persona 4 rallies here and there, and they worked a bit, because Persona is now big enough that there are places around the web where people care for it. Another important point is that no one tried to rally for Red Dead Redemption. People had it in their brackets, but no one seemed to care enough to counterrally. Or they just enjoyed seeing Persona get a victory. Its hard to tell how the match would have ended if some people supporters RDR to the same extent, we cant really know how well it would have worked.

I think Read Dead Redemption claims a narrow victory here without outside interference, but its not easy to determine just how much the rallies did. It wasnt spectacular, but that and a little bit of spillover might just have made the difference. There were definitely less complains about rallying as we usually see, probably because the result bothered nobody. I dont think its hypocritical not to complain, just to make that clear. It only is if you passionately dislike rallies and then rally yourself. Its only natural not be as annoyed when you hate the result. But it shows how much we like Persona 4.

I just think Red Dead Redemption deserves a little more respect that it got, because Persona 4 definitely needed help to get this victory and I think the board is a little too good at turning a blind eye to when Persona is in trouble. The early part of the match makes that clear to me. Perhaps its more than Persona 4 Golden deserves a little less respect cause even though RDR never got too close, the idea that Persona 4 is just stronger than RDR by a solid enough amount to win with relative ease is misleading.

Persona 4 had a very fascinating run that everyone should appreciate, but I still think its a shame we dont get to see what we would prefer in a Grand Theft Auto vs. Red Dead Redemption match, even if we got something better. Its just that its probably the best chance well ever get to see how that hierarchy works because they almost never get further than round 2. I personally think Persona 4 should be happy it could gain some momentum in this match to overcome GTAV as well. Im sure it wins that match without it. Considering the prediction percentage today and the ones in round 1, its pretty clear RDR was the sitewide favorite by a good amount.

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Round 2 Division 4 Day 20
Xenoblade Chronicles 73.32%
Overwatch 26.68%

Prediction Percentage 38.68%

The previous round saw Xenoblade Chronicles look absolutely incredible. However, the match likely had some unknown amount of SFF in it, so we couldnt really know for certain if it was a misleading result. Today, it proved that its on a whole new level. You can really get far in five years it would seem. Xenoblade cemented itself as a favorite to win the division today by a good amount. Overwatch is not exactly the most beloved game on the website and is probably anti-voted to some extent, but it can win against tons of games in the bracket and has some strength to its name.

Overwatch is another casual bait. Look at the prediction percentage for this match and then know that almost every guru picked it to win today. Its a very GameFAQs kind of result, we had two of those today. Despite the board knowing Xenoblade wouldnt be in trouble, every single oracle went lower than the result today. We expected Xenoblade to look really good and we really like it ourselves too, and yet it still outdid expectations by quite a bit. The consensus was below a doubling. Its incredible how far the game has become, because to bury a big name like Overwatch, even on our site, you have to be recognized yourself. I dont think Xenoblade was that yet five years ago and it definitely wasnt when it released. But through Smash exposure and Nintendo acknowledging the series in recent years, it has gathered its respect.

Xenoblade had basically nothing to worry about the coming round despite Three Houses being the pre-contest favorite to win that match. It would take some serious Nintendo hierarchy kind of thing to make it seem likely Three Houses could end on top of that match.

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Xenoblade is a game few have played but many respect.
Overwatch is a game many have played but few respect.

Especially with the ongoing s***show that is Blizzard as of now. And I actually can believe the whole Blitzchung thing was just Blizzard not wanting people to express their political views while playing their game, but oh boy.

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Round 2 Division 4 Day 20
Ori and the Blind Forest 37.76%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses 62.24%

Prediction Percentage 59.21%

Yet another round and yet another underwhelming performance for Fire Emblem: Three Houses. This is in no way how you want to perform when youre the favorite to win the division. Despite its round 1 result, it still went a little below Board 8s expectations for it. Ultimately, none of that looked to matter all too much because Xenoblade was leagues ahead of where we expected it to be. Three Houses could have done what it was supposed to do for two rounds and it still wouldnt be the favorite to win the following round. Three Houses had to hope there was some Nintendo or Smash hierarchy that favored against Xenoblade next round, but it was weird to imagine.

Ori and the Blind Forest ends up looking like one of the top indie games, although I think its indie game status is a grey area. It appears to be behind Cuphead, Stardew Valley and Shovel Knight, but above things like Hollow Knight. I think its misleading and that its actually a bit lower than that. Ori was only released on Xbox and PC until very recently where it got a definite edition on Switch. I have a hard time imagining its that high up there. I think Fire Emblem: Three Houses is an easy game to overperform against. The Smash community are pretty tired of Fire Emblem right now and it was pretty clear in the previous Character Battle how much influence the Smash fanbase has over our contests. I also think Xenoblade overperformed a bit against Ultimate, but that does not seem to be the popular opinion.

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Round 2 Division 5 Day 21
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 78.40%
Mass Effect 3 21.60%

Prediction Percentage 82.77%

This was the match that truly changed the favorite to reach Breath of the Wild from this side of the bracket. The Witcher 3 looks so great today. Everyone who picked Skyrim in the semi-finals knew they were in deep trouble. Everyone who believes Persona will win whenever theres a small chance knew now that it would take a miracle. Dark Souls supporters knew that even if they got past Skyrim, the final was almost out of the question. Galaxy 2 supporters literally lost all hope today. Not a single oracle went expected Witcher to win by this match, the closest being more than 1% away, and the second closest being more than 3% away. This was a bloodbath out of nowhere. It certainly wasnt just Assassins Creed Odyssey being downvoted into oblivion. The Witcher 3 was serious now.

The previous games contest actually saw Mass Effect 2 probably being the weakest, though of course, theyre as hard to compare as it gets due to Undertale and that Metal Gear Solid 3 vs. Mass Effect 2 match was all kinds of weird. Even so, it was pretty clear that the games werent too far ahead. Mass Effect 3 might have been hurt by the format a bit. The Witcher 3 is mentioned everyone when it comes to Game of the Decade and Mass Effect 3 will forever be hunted by the controversial ending, sadly. But even if you think the contest title severely boosted Mass Effect 2 and did the opposite to the third one, theres no denying how incredible The Witcher 3 looks here.

The Witcher 3 looks a lot more mortal later in the contest, although the games standing up to all finish within the top 8 of the x-stats. Im not trying to take any credit away from this result, but Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Persona 5 are vastly different from The Witcher 3 in terms of fans, while Mass Effect and Assassins Creed Odyssey share a lot more of their fans with it. It was later widely accepted some kind of SFF happened here, popularly called Western SFF. Well save the talk of why thats a stupid name for another time. Although given what we seem to know the forced voting and contest title can do to matchups like this one, it seems pretty likely that Mass Effect 3 was also hurt a bit by usual SFF, which redeems its performance a good bit.

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Round 2 Division 5 Day 21
Stardew Valley 35.91%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 64.09%

Prediction Percentage 60.94%

I think this is one of the rare matches where both games actually look impressive. Super Mario Galaxy 2 underperformed relative to our expectations, which were likely fueled by the absolute blowout it delivered in round 1, but this is still a very solid performance on a game that ends up looking really good. Unfortunately, Super Mario Galaxy 2 got screwed by bracket placement so badly, because The Witcher 3 currently looked to be god tier in contest strength and there was just no way you could hold on to that longshot upset any longer.

Stardew looks really impressive today and it only looks more impressive with each passing round and each passing Witcher 3 match in particular. Super Mario Galaxy 2 is the exact type of game to benefit from this format. Its not too important that its from the Wiis declining years any longer, because Nintendo are on top again and Super Mario Galaxy 2 is one of the best rated games of the decade, which absolutely matters in a contest like this. Yet Stardew Valley held up to it. Were in the middle of a round that certainly isnt kind to indie games. The ones that looked better would look a lot less good after the following round, but not Stardew Valley.

I suppose Stardew Valley just had a really impressive amount of exposure and is exactly what were looking for in a game? It got a physical release, which is a dream come true for an indie game, but not just that, it was easily available in tons of places. At least my own observation was that every place had this game for a while, even places with slim selections. It had almost Shovel Knight levels of exposure in that regard. Its also just really perfect at what it aimed to do. If simulation games arent your thing, then you wont like it of course, but otherwise, youre likely going to really like this game. It deserves to return to the field again in the future.

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Round 2 Division 5 Day 21
Fallout: New Vegas 53.96%
Dark Souls III 46.04%

Prediction Percentage 48.31%

Fallout: New Vegas was the heavy board favorite here, which should be a little surprising given how close the match was and the trends the contest had, but its a match that highlights very nicely how many experts we have. A general trend weve seen in the contest so far had been that the Soulsborne games have looked very good and theyve also been some of the most memorable and defining games of the decade. Another general thing is that Bethesda has gone downhill quite a bit since the beginning of the decade, although they started it very high. Fallout was certainly a stronger series the last time we had a games contest, where both Fallout 3 and New Vegas were looking better than Dark Souls, but times change.

The people that did not consider a Soulsborne boost, but simply looked at previous stats likely all picked New Vegas today without thinking twice about it. For once that worked out nicely, but it was a close call. New Vegas got less today than it was projected to get against Dark Souls in 2015. We still predicted this one very nicely in the oracle though. The Souldborne boost was clear this time, but people also knew that Dark Souls III would not be nearly as strong as the first one. It appears to be that its closer within the fanbase, but overall, the first one has gathered so much more respect. The third one is basically what the first one was five years ago.

The overall boost couldve easily been enough to win this match, especially if you thought the Bethesda decline would strike New Vegas today. Yet the board also correctly expected that New Vegas would not be harmed much by this, because it wasnt developed by Bethesda, but only published by them. Of course, there are almost always exceptions, and it was reasonable to go higher on New Vegas or pick Dark Souls III, but this result was the general consensus on the board. New Vegas would have the edge, but it would be close. I think our board as a whole deserves some respect every now and then for things like this. Its often brought up when we collectively screw up, so lets bring it up when the opposite happens. The board seemed confident about this, and its not often you see us being so confident in a match as close in percentage as this one. Its one thing when we had a Link vs. Cloud like this every year and we knew what would happen, but this was impressive.

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It's not even just that New Vegas wasn't actually made by Bethesda. It was made by a studio that included some of the people who worked on the older Fallout games, and as such is considered to be their true successor within the Fallout fandom. Dark Souls III is often accused of being too similar to its predecessors.

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Round 2 Division 5 Day 21
Nioh 25.54%
God of War 74.46%

Prediction Percentage 79.71%

God of War looks quite dominant once again. Nioh just had a sequel right before the contest began and weve had a contest where anything FromSoftware has looked really good. God of War looked like it could give a lot of division favorites a good scare. Just not the one in the division it was actually in, unfortunately. God of War over Witcher 3 was a fine upset pick if you wanted something that would give you a good winning chance if it pulled through, though it required you to think The Witcher 3 hadnt boosted much and that the Ultimate vs. God of War GotY poll could be translated to contest strength. It was always a longshot and the hope officially died today, despite God of War exceeding our expectations a little bit.

Nioh ended up looking pretty bad despite looking good coming out of round 1. Despite just getting a sequel, it doesnt look like the game was all that big. It just turns out The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth was among the weakest things in the bracket, which we didnt believe at the time of its match. Nioh is a good example that 2017 just has a large collection of strong games, but that nothing does well because its from 2017, as it seemed at times. Games like Nioh was simply in a great position to make it seem like that because it got a weak opponent the contest had led us to believe would be decent enough.

When all that is said, I do believe Nioh was perhaps SFFd a little here. Although Nioh later came out on PC, the games were both released as Playstation 4 exclusives only about a year apart. I think they overlap a little in fanbase.

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Round 2 Division 6 Day 22
Persona 5 71.06%
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag 28.94%

Prediction Percentage 73.69%

If the previous day wasnt enough in itself to make it clear Persona 5 would not get further than the quarterfinals, it surely became clear today. You had to believe a huge difference in strength between two Assassins Creed games despite the site not caring about neither or that The Witcher 3 SFFd Assassins Creed into oblivion to still hold onto the idea that Persona 5 had a chance of getting to the semifinals. In the first round, we werent sure how beastly The Witcher 3 was because it might have been the Assassins Creed series falling off a cliff, but Black Flag still managed to win a match and look less terrible than Odyssey here, so the anti-voting clearly wasnt on the levels of Call of Duty and such. Obviously, this didnt stop Persona 5 supporters from believing it could do it, but from this day forward, you really shouldnt believe there was much of chance.

Despite winning a match this contest, I really doubt well see an Assassins Creed game make the field again unless theyre a serious turnaround in that series or that the next Game of the Decade contest also tries its best to very diverse. Assassins Creed II barely made it in a five years ago. It had potential to be big at one point, but the ship has sailed. Its a shame to see a series, that was so amazing at one point, fall at much as it has done, but here we are. Of course, the games are still successful from an economic perspective, so everything is fine at Ubisoft headquarters and well likely see games released consistently for years to come, but the days where less casual gamers praised the franchise are long gone.

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Round 2 Division 6 Day 22
Sonic Mania 64.84%
Super Meat Boy 35.16%

Prediction Percentage 48.80%

This match is one of the most hilarious of the entire contest. It was expected to be close and it then Sonic Mania makes a real attempt at the doubling. Such results happen in round 1, especially in a contest where most of the field is new, but in round 2 its a lot rarer. Sonic Mania looked pretty bad against Ys VIII in round 1. It only remained the favorite in this match because we expected Slay the Spire to be among the weakest games in the bracket and Super Meat Boy didnt look very impressive killing it. Sonic Mania was a bigger favorite before the contest begun that after round 1 though.

The match ended up being a matter of who sucked less. No one had any faith in Ys VIII, so it seemed quite believable that Sonic Mania was just bad because everything Sonic being bad these days sounded believable. It isnt exactly good, but not at all as bad as we thought for a moment. Then we had Super Meat Boy not destroying Slay the Spire as anything was supposed to. Games like VVVVVV and Binding of Isaac looks very bad after round 1, and those are indie games from around the same time as Super Meat Boy. This allowed Sonic Mania to remain the favorite despite the silly round 1 performance.

Then the match was over in a matter of seconds and two other matches today actually looked better for a very brief while. Everyone supporters Super Meat Boy looked so bad, but it really didnt seem like a bad upset pick at the time. The oracle consensus is more than 14% away from the result. The closest pick is more than 2% away and the second closest more than 4%. What a shocker this was.

It really became apparent how much weve begun to appreciate smaller RPGs. Ys, Bravely Default, Octopath Traveler. Some of those have a big developer behind them, but the point still stands. On top of that weve seen Dragon Quest and Persona looking better than ever with Xenoblade looking to be very good as well. Perhaps a time has come where were looking at different RPGs, small ones too, because were a bunch of people growing up with Final Fantasy, which is trash today. Its a shame Ys didnt draw Super Meat Boy in round 1 for one of the most hilarious results of the contest, but we still got to have this insane overperformance due to how misled we were.

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The only way to see another AC game would be if it set in Japan. People ask this from when AC 2 came out.

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Round 2 Division 6 Day 22
Portal 2 62.36%
Kingdom Hearts III 37.64%

Prediction Percentage 50.55%

Kingdom Hearts III was a semi-popular upset pick taken by a good number of gurus. Kingdom Hearts has traditionally been stronger than Portal here and the third one was untested, as it did not appear in any Game of the Year polls. Portal also looked weaker in recent contests as it did a decade ago when it was a huge phenomenon everywhere. However, Kingdom Hearts III was not received too well for various reasons weve been through before. You had to hoping it could ride on its name to victory and that was always a longshot. We saw how well it worked out for the game thinking they had their own characters and didnt need Final Fantasy anywhere. Its the same thing here really, and besides, Portal is quite the name here as well. Oh, and I know thats not the main reason the game wasnt too well liked, but it all counts.

The first round definitely made Portal 2 look like the favorite today, as shown by very few oracles picking it. True enough, it had little trouble, though we underestimated it a good bit. Kingdom Hearts III did best with the board vote, surprisingly. Despite not being too well liked here either, we still appreciate the franchise as a whole it would seem, because we sure used to love Portal too. It was close for a few minutes. Then it was basically over, but if you believed Portal 2 had all the bracket votes, you might have still had hope at the freeze, because Portal couldnt really run away with it until that point. When the next update came it was pretty clear that Portal 2 was not going to break a sweat winning the match though.

I think at the end of the day, this wasnt really a matter of which franchise we think the best of a decade later, but just the games competing. Portal 2 was loved, and Kingdom Hearts III had a mixed reception. In a Game of the Decade setting, Portal 2 is still remembered despite being very early. The first Portal was good and did impressive last Game of the Decade too, but the second one took the good idea and really built upon it. I saw the name being brought up in many Game of the Decade discussions, it probably benefits a bit from the contest title, similar to what Mass Effect 2 seemed to do.

Portal 2 goes into the third round as the big favorite, although it depended on how much a boost you thought Animal Crossing. Kingdom Hearts ended up looking fine, but its a huge fall from grace. Both games were among the biggest games last decade. This one barely made it out in time to enter this and after so many years of waiting, it wasnt even that great. The future is not to bright for Kingdom Hearts. They pumped out handheld games and countless remasters up until the release of this game because it was hyped by the misleading title of it being a mainline Kingdom Hearts despite being a sequel to one of the handhelds that more casual fans probably thought of a spin-off. If they want to make up for this with another release in the future, they probably cant get people to buy everything again, because it wont be as anticipated. We might very well have seen the effective end of the franchise, but Kingdom Hearts II will probably continue to be a decent entry in these contests and Sora is probably still somewhat strong.

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I'm not entirely sure why I just picked Portal 2 to win without thinking twice TBH. Probably just operating on the assumption that KH3 would be weak, which turned out to be correct!

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Round 2 Division 6 Day 22
Animal Crossing: New Leaf 42.39%
Read Dead Redemption 2 57.61%

Prediction Percentage 69.82%

This match would probably not have been a doubt half a year before. Red Dead Redemption is not as fantastic here as other places, but its still pretty good, it just doesnt get any praise because its results are disappointing and not surprising to the common eye. The second one had a huge release. The FAQs for Rockstar games are pretty frequented here too and they remain on top of the charts for a long time. Even on GameFAQs, this match should not be in much doubt.

However, when Animal Crossing: New Horizons just had one of the biggest launches of all time leading right up to the contest, suddenly New Leaf doing the impossible seemed like a possibility. Last contest was also one of our most Nintendo dominant contest to date with everything that appeared in Smash looking at least decent. Ironically, Red Dead Redemption 2 is one of two games ever with a launch better than or as good as New Horizons. Theyre tough to compare because Nintendo released numbers for the first eleven days while RDR2 got numbers for the first two days. New Horizons certainly wins if you do a console split, then it probably also beats the #1, Grand Theft Auto V. This obviously doesnt matter much. New Horizons was the hottest game in the world during this contest, likely fueled by the lockdown, but also fueled by the game being a perfect game to play during lockdown.

The match wasnt really close though. The opening minutes were fun, because while Red Dead Redemption 2 clearly had the early bracket votes (and Im calling it bracket votes since theres no way board 8 favors a Rockstar game over Animal Crossing), New Leaf actually closed the gap for some minutes before RDR2 went ahead again. The first updates post the freeze werent big, but when a Rockstar game is leading at that point its very likely to win the match, and so it did, extending its percentage throughout the day.

The main reason that New Horizons hype wasnt enough to pull the upset is without much doubt simply that it wasnt New Horizons competing. It probably helped New Leaf a bit, but the gap was way too big. Remember how awful New Leaf looked in the previous contest? Yes, it was SFFd, but it also got Undertale rally spillover boosted. It was clearly a bottom game of the contest. It had a huge gap to close. It would be fun to see New Horizons in a contest right now. Itll probably be alright whenever we get a games contest again. Im not doubting it makes the field if its eligible, but I think the craze will be over by then. It will be remembered as a great game, but its during lockdown it had a chance to pull something like this off and likely be super easy to rally for.

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Time to answer to a couple of posts!

UltimaterializerX posted...

The problem with the anti-fun brigade is rallies magically become okay for them if they agree with the winner.

It can be a problem for sure, but I think it's giving a couple of troll users too much credit. In any case, it was a terrible experience to be rooting for Shovel Knight the whole day and then be talked down to because it got rallied later on. Octopath was rallied to, was I expected to root for no one to advance? Both sides were rallying anyways, there was no point to not simply root for your favorite game, regardless of what you think if rallies, and I thought it was a huge shame that was looked down upon.

Safer_777 posted...

The only way to see another AC game would be if it set in Japan. People ask this from when AC 2 came out.

I doubt it would be enough to make a big difference in itself.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I'm not entirely sure why I just picked Portal 2 to win without thinking twice TBH. Probably just operating on the assumption that KH3 would be weak, which turned out to be correct!

Yeah, it was really all you needed to think about it.

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Round 2 Division 7 Day 23
Dark Souls 77.34%
Rocket League 22.66%

Prediction Percentage 72.23%

This was probably the result that made it seem like Dark Souls getting to the semi-finals was a real possibility. At least its the result that Dark Souls was capable of taking advantage of capable of taking care of the weakness Skyrim was about to indicate. The oracles predicted Dark Souls a fine bit lower than this. It looks really good here, and Im surprised its prediction percentage is not higher. Perhaps both Rocket League and Dragon Ball FighterZ are casual bait to some extent? I can see that, Im just surprised if it worked against Dark Souls of all things.

At this point of the contest, we probably overestimated Rocket League and Dragon Ball FighterZ a bit though. Being the best sports game, the best non-Mario Kart racing game and the best non-Smash fighting game sounds like cool titles, but they all mean absolutely nothing here. Rocket League is a very fun game, I can easily play if for many hours, especially if playing with friends. Its generally pretty well liked, but is it anyones favorite on GameFAQs? Highly unlikely. Itll win matches against games no one care about, and it turns out having Dragon Ball in the title didnt make us care about FighterZ but put it against a real contest threat and it rolls over completely. Thats what happened today.

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Rocket League is definitely casual bait, just not the same kind as something like GTA.

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Round 2 Division 7 Day 23
Yakuza 0 42.75%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain 57.25%

Prediction Percentage 68.32%

Yakuza 0 being a game with actual strength was a surprise to many this contest, especially after the characters all looked horrible last contest. We thought The Witness was simply so terrible that anything could blow it out of the contest. True enough, The Witness would end up near the bottom, but this is the match that put it out of contention for the bottom spot, we thought it could have. We fully expected Metal Gear Solid V to be an embarrassment to the once extremely popular franchise after everything that happened with Kojima and Konami back then, and yet the oracle consensus still had it more than 5% above what it got. Yakuza 0 surprised most of us today. Perhaps the characters making it in should have been an indicator that the game is now cared about.

Yakuza 0 ends up looking good and like something we might want to bring back again, but I do think MGSV was a very good game for it look good against, so the x-stats probably overrate it. When the winning game is something so obviously anti-voted, the losing game will look better, its dead simple. MGSV is not anti-voted to extreme amounts or it wouldnt be in round 3, but it definitely is to some extent. Look at the board vote. Yakuza 0 won that, MGSV didnt start running away with the lead until the end of the freeze. It didnt look back, but it shows. MGSV was also eliminated in round 1 of board 8s Game of the Decade of the Year, ZaziGuados Game of the Decade board contest using the format of User of the Year. Board 8 hates the game and board 8 is among the biggest Metal Gear Solid fans youll find. It was because of board 8s love for the series that I originally played the series myself, though Snakes success in the contests helped. The point is that while MGSV is appreciated for its gameplay and name alone, the hardcore fans of the series might very well vote against it, and it might very well be enough to be what caused Yakuza 0 to break 40% today.

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Keep in mind Yakuza has becoming another cash cow franchise for Sega, helping to revive the company's fortunes as of late. It's also the reason no new Sonic game has come out since 2017.

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But is this true? I mean Yakuza games and Sonic games have nothing in common. So why not release both of the series?

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Round 2 Division 7 Day 23
Batman: Arkham City 59.82%
BioShock Infinite 40.18%

Prediction Percentage 48.68%

Heading into round 2, this was expected to be a somewhat close match. Batman: Arkham City was the heavy favorite both before and during the contest, but the first round saw Batman get a very narrow win, lower than we expected, while BioShock Infinite scored higher than we thought. Of course, everyone expected Xenoblade Chronicles 2 to be better than Terreria, but both Xenoblade 2 and Batman were likely better than we thought. Im sure a few additional people would have taken this upset, if the first Xenoblade had not just looked insane a few days before this match.

The lesson was learned today. Xenoblade 2 was one of the games screwed the most over by bracket placement, as some had expected, and Terraria was just straight up awful. Batman: Arkham City won easily enough today that suddenly The Last of Us reaching the division finals didnt seem like as big a lock at it was before, although that had more to do with its own match. BioShock Infinite actually ends up looking decent enough in the x-stats. The decline of that franchise couldve been a lot worse, but theres still far up to how well the original two did a decade ago.

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Safer_777 posted...

But is this true? I mean Yakuza games and Sonic games have nothing in common. So why not release both of the series?

It's not so much that, as the case that until recently Sonic was basically Sega's only cash cow franchise, which kept Sega releasing games of questionable quality in that franchise. Now that they have other stuff, they don't need to lean on Sonic so hard anymore.

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Round 2 Division 7 Day 23
Diablo III 36.72%
The Last of Us 63.28%

Prediction Percentage 75.20%

If you were one of the many board 8ers with The Last of Us as the division winner in your bracket, but you had not yet lost hope in round 1 when Dark Souls clearly looked stronger than it was five years ago, this was the match where it became clear you were losing 8 points. The Last of Us underperformed quite a bit relative to what we thought. It was quite apparent that the game was not as strong as it was back in 2015. Dark Souls looked stronger than then, and the gap wasnt too big to begin with. It was a sealed deal, and suddenly it looked more likely The Last of Us would drop to Batman: Arkham City than beat Dark Souls.

I do think Diablo III is stronger than board 8 is ready to give it credit for though. The Last of Us probably doesnt benefit from the contest title as much anymore as it would have had years back. Naughty Dog is in a weird place and the delay of the sequel probably doesnt help much. Remember that this match happened before the leaks came. The Last of Us was huge when it came, but probably less so now, as it already hasnt aged too well on some levels. Against something like Diablo III, it probably doesnt gain much help from the forced voting here. Diablo is a bigger franchise name. Blizzard is in a bad place these days, but Diablo III is before things went downhill and a lot of the issues with Blizzard doesnt apply to Diablo III. It was a fine game that simply didnt reach previous series high. It ends up looking a good big better than I think much board 8ers would have guessed it would. The Last of Us was fine today, even if perhaps a little bit weaker than in 2015. It just didnt look like it could beat the boosted Dark Souls.

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Round 2 Division 8 Day 24
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 74.98%
Journey 25.02%

Prediction Percentage 88.32%

This was the match that initially made Skyrim an easy target for most of the rest of the contest. The Subnautica result was one thing, only a few Bethesda anti-votes were needed to keep it from going higher then, but people had a tough time accepting this result and it didnt help The Witcher 3 had looked extremely good a few rounds before. Journey finished at the near bottom of the 2015 x-stats and it was debated to be the weakest round 2 entry there was. The general consensus before the contest was that Skyrim was the favorite to each the finals. If it was still the case after round 1, it certainly wasnt the case now, and on top of The Witcher 3 taking the title, Dark Souls beating Skyrim was now considered very possible.

I was one of the people defending Skyrim at the time, but it wasnt easy. I didnt doubt The Witcher 3 would be the one to make the finals any longer, but I didnt think this was as bad as people made it out to be. Ill say once again that Skyrim was the Final Fantasy VII character of this contest. They always get where theyre supposed to, but it sure doesnt look good getting there. The Bethesda anti-votes are a thing, thats for sure. Skyrim has also become a victim of its own popularity. At least it seems that way to be. There are seemingly a group of people that find it cool to hate on the game, partly because Breath of the Wild and The Witcher 3 has overshadowed it in the latter half of the decade. This has had some bandwagon effect probably, it felt like people wanted to see Skyrim lose early and board 8 lacked the Skyrim fans to defend it. Still, most people are better than that and respect Skyrim. Its a vocal minority.

Then theres Journey. The above doesnt work if we really think Journey is as weak as 2015 project it to be, and I dont! The 2015 x-stats project Skyrim to do about 5% better against Journey, although both are clouded by Undertale rallies. Thats not too big of a difference! Skyrim had room to be a little weaker and still easily get to the semi-finals and look good there and Journey had reason to be stronger than last time. Its not good, but the game is mentioned in some Game of the Decade debates and during this contest it was made free for every person that owns a PS4. Not just the PS+ subscribers, but everyone. Sonys way of telling people to stay home during the pandemic was by giving everyone the Nathan Drake Collection and Journey for free. That could help close that 5% gap a little more.

Finally, Journey is probably a terrible game for Skyrim to look good against. Its so vastly different and colorful in comparison. The Witcher 3 looked to be in its own league, but it also got opponents of similar fanbases to trash, Skyrim didnt. I thought Skyrim looked fine already then, but there were people not understanding why we had such a hard time accepting Skyrim was just weaker. That wasnt it! In the end, Skyrim looked fine and so Journey wasnt as bad as we thought. Theres no point in seeing it in another contest, but it managed to get away from the bottom of the barrel where it used be, although it took most of the contest for the majority of people to see that.

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Round 2 Division 8 Day 24
Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn 39.64%
Mario Kart 8 60.36%

Prediction Percentage 41.16%

People had such a hard time imaging Mario Kart 8 being any good that its round 1 victory against Uncharted 4 was thought almost entirely to be because Uncharted was terrible these days. Final Fantasy XIV looked very impressive in its round 1 victory and so a group of people were quite tempted by picking it to beat Mario Kart. Most people still went with Mairo Kart 8, but it didnt seem like that many felt too good about it. Well, it turns out this match was the first part of Uncharted 4s redemption and the next installment in the series of Mario Kart 8 annoying board 8 by having actual strength. Its probably not much of board 8 that had difficulties accepting it, at least its board vote seems to indicate otherwise, but it was a group of contest experts, so it was still hilarious.

For a match that made people feel uneasy, this was a huge victory, and Final Fantasy XIV was never in it. Mario Kart 8 was killing it from the moment the match began and was shooting above the doubling a while. It calmed down a lot throughout the power hour, but it still won very big for a somewhat debated match. Perhaps it didnt even boost too much since last contest but was simply considerably buried beneath SFF from Super Mario 64.

Despite failing to break 40% in a match expert gave it a chance in, Final Fantasy XIV ends up looking relatively good. It looked bad today if you had troubles thinking Mario Kart 8 could really be good, but that ended up changing. According to the x-stats XIV is the strongest Final Fantasy game in the bracket. Its close enough to be within the uncertainties, but thats crazy in itself! Its almost certainly the strongest MMORPG today, after taking a few years to be worth anything and probably using its name a bit to achieve that.

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Round 2 Division 8 Day 24
Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version 71.97%
Rayman Legends 28.03%

Prediction Percentage 76.10%

Pokemon HGSS went through another round looking about as good as it was expected to. Following up on the victories of Resident Evil 2 and Persona 4 Golden, it seemed clear at this point that HGSS would not be a victim of its remake status. Although HGSS is still in another place than the other two. Not being downvoted for being a remake is one thing, but could it act as a proxy of GSC similar to what Persona 4 Golden was doing? It remained to be seen. Everything in its path so far were untested outside of meaningless GotY polls.

It would go into its big third round match as the favorite, because most people expected Rayman to be better than Divinity, the latter being one of the games brought up in the debates of what was the weakest game to win a match. It was also rallied ever so slightly, but you had to make some bold assumptions for NieR: Automata to remain the favorite in that match. While things ahead looked to be tougher for HGSS after the first round, despite looking impressive in it, it was certainly the favorite to win now, if it wasnt already. Rayman Legends get to lose in one the most boring round 2 matches of the contest, but the franchise can look back as this contest happily, as it got its first ever contest victory.

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Round 2 Division 8 Day 24
Divinity: Original Sin II 31.27%
NieR: Automata 68.73%

Prediction Percentage 63.27%

After what seemed to be a very impressive first round result against Bayonetta 2, this match sounded the alarm for the chances of NieR: Automata reaching the division finals. Divinity: Original Sin II was debatably the weakest game to make the second round and NieR was expected to better than this and needed to if it wanted to beat HGSS the following round. Especially considering that being a remake now didnt seem to be a problem after all despite the contest title.

Divinity made a rally attempt during the match. Although it obviously wasnt very successful, it probably skewed the percentages a little bit. It might have bailed it out in a close match because it clearly brought some votes in, but I dont think its more than 1% or 2% today. Id imagine people stopped trying rather quickly, because it was so far behind it rightfully seemed impossible. Its still worth mentioning when discussing how big a chance NieR had in the following match.

Looking back, I suppose Divinity is exactly the type of game that we like here. Weve seen Yakuza and even Ys do surprisingly well. Heres another RPG and a very successful one on top of that. It seemed bad at the time, but I dont think NieR looks all that bad here. Its hopes of reaching round 4 was always banking on HGSS being significantly hurt either by being a remake or not being one of the first two generations despite being a remake of the second one. Divinity isnt fantastic here and it took the right opponent to win a match, but easily doubling it, especially considering the rally, was a fine result.

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That was round 2, meaning we're 3/4 done and getting to all the big matches a lot of the write-ups has lead up to!

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Round 3 Division 1 Day 25
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 80.25%
Final Fantasy XV 19.75%

Prediction Percentage 84.65%

This is one of the most impressive round 3 performances of all time and one of only three times that something has managed to crack 80% three rounds in a row. To no ones surprise, the other two times also belong to the same franchise, Link in 2004 and The Legend of Zelda in the series contest. Both times also involved at least one SFF match though, making this one look even more impressive in comparison. Breath of the Wild was completely steamrolling all competition. Despite being the favorite to win the whole contest, it managed to exceed our expectations three rounds in a row. Its insane.

This performance is so dominant that everything in the fourpack Final Fantasy XV won suddenly looks extremely weak. Hollow Knights was thought to be among the best indie games, and it ended up way below the others in contention. Final Fantasy XV ends up significantly below Final Fantasy XIV and while the latter probably isnt as disliked, its still and MMORPG and something not as many has played. Does it really do any better in this match? This looks off to me is what Im trying to say. Is it really a coincidence that twice in a row weve seen the worst game of a round in x-stats being the game that faced Breath of the Wild?

Is it possible that Breath of the Wild used forced voting and the title of contest to overperform these first three rounds? No one has respect for The Outer Worlds, Halo: Reach or Final Fantasy XV when it comes to what Game of the Decade is. Dragon Quest does have a more dedicated fanbase than that. I also thought that maybe, just maybe, there actually is some SFF here after all? Its a stretch perhaps, but both franchises are historically very big and very exposed on this site. Usually, were split on them, but everyone played them. This decade, there has been absolutely no doubt about which one is better. Breath of the Wild might have a vocal group not liking it, but FFXV certainly does too. SFF might not be the right term, but I think something caused Breath of the Wild to look better than it usually would today.

There has not been a single contest on this site, that didnt involve The Legend of Zelda vs. Final Fantasy in some way. 2013 came close with Draven and all the Pokemon wrecking the bracket, but Sephiroth still got to face Midna and Vivi got to face Ganondorf. This contest obviously made it statistically more unlike with less entrants, but its not like it was only because of that. Not that it was the only match, but Link against Cloud was the obvious final match for many contests, although it became less and less debatable over time. These two franchises against each other have been a defining part of our contests and our site. Now look at what it has become. Final Fantasy XV is below the fodder line. Its crazy how uneven it is today. Of course, Ocarina of Time vs. Final Fantasy VII would not be this big of a blowout at all, but its still a bit crazy to think about. One of them still has the quality of the 90s. The other one doesnt. Ironically, the Final Fantasy game weve been the most positive towards in a long time is a remake of the most popular one.

Final Fantasy is in modern gaming no longer a big name. FFXV wouldnt be in this match if it didnt have the franchise name to ride on. It almost didnt make it here already. Its a shame to see one of the best franchises of all time come to this. Pumping out VII to X in five years is so incomparably impressive and its sad to see that it cant even spit out quality like that once in a decade any longer.

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As I wrote in my analysis in this contest we had the worst loss 1VS1 for BOTH a FF entry AND a Zelda entry! History there people!
Also as a huge FF fan yeah I am sad to see that FF isn't anymore that big. I haven't even played FF 15 even though a friend has it and he gives it to me but I just don't feel like it.

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Round 3 Division 1 Day 25
Monster Hunter: World 46.73%
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age 53.27%

Prediction Percentage 24.69%

For a game that was a lock to reach the division finals in the eyes of many of us, Dragon Quest XI had a small scare today. The match was not actually all that close, but Monster Hunter made a solid rally attempt and cut off a great deal of percentage from Dragon Quest. At the same time, it made all of itself, Sekiro, Bravely Default and Ni no Kuni look better than expected, which is hilarious when you consider the early debates of what was good and bad in those matches. Dragon Quest XI would end up doing a lot better on Breath of the Wild than Final Fantasy XV did, making them all look even better, as they would all finish ahead of everything in the top half of the division except of course Breath of the Wild itself.

The match was as mentioned never close. DQXI looked safe right away and quickly had a lead of a few 100 votes, which basically means match over these days, but after a short while, the rallies of Monster Hunter: World significantly halted the increase of DQXIs lead and made a good many cuts along the way before DQXI could start increasing easily again in the latter parts of the match.

While a simple match that was easy to predict, its also a good time to appreciate the growth in two franchises that are currently at an all-time peak after being around for many years. Dragon Quest has been around a good deal longer than Monster Hunter, but the sixteen years Monster Hunter has is a lot too! Dragon Quest VIII winning a match in 2015 is the only time any of them ever had a victory before. Now they came into a contest seeded #2 and #3 and living up to those seeds!

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Round 3 Division 2 Day 26
Mass Effect 2 55.12%
Horizon Zero Dawn 44.88%

Prediction Percentage 37.49%

Another round of Mass Effect 2 easily getting the job done despite being the second most shaky #1 seed, ahead of only Grand Theft Auto V. Mass Effect 2 began the contest looking terrible against Resident Evil 7, then beat up Fallout 4 by a lot more in a match that had people worry and finally easily takes care of underrated game Horizon Zero Dawn and manages to go into the division finals as the favorite despite everything that happened so far. The final percentages here are misleading too. Mass Effect 2 was looking to finish above 58% before all the Bloodborne rallies started to come and significantly favor Horizon.

Horizon Zero Dawn still had a really nice contest run that gave it some deserved attention. It came out a few days before Breath of the Wild and was vastly overshadowed. Weve talked about many times how 2017 was the year of the decade by a significant margin. Tons of franchises had their biggest game in a long time that year. Horizon, being a new IP, and being a pretty good game but nothing groundbreaking, stood very little chance against all that. In its GotY poll here, it did manage to easily beat NieR: Automata for second best PS4 game behind Persona 5, an impressive showing. Since then, Aloy got into the previous character battle as a high seed but lost to a character from Overwatch, and the game has been talked little about.

It was however remembered fondly, it would seem. It had its issues, people preferred the backstory parts to the present story and its open world mechanics were deemed inferior to many other games coming out at the time, but Im glad it doesnt mean the game can still be enjoyed. In a Game of the Decade setting, we talk a lot about the most influential and revolutionary games. We talk a lot about what games started certain gaming trends or did them best. Sometimes something comes out that does neither of that but it still very enjoyable. That makes it easier to forgot, especially if its something that had no pre-existing fanbase, but it does not mean the game should be disliked. Horizon is a perfect example of such a game.

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Next one is one of the biggest matches of the contest. I'm not sure it'll be up today, because it'll be big, but I'm really exciting about reaching it and writing on it.

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Updated list of write-ups I have changes to

DOOM vs. Inside
Undertale vs. Octopath Traveler
Super Mario Odyssey vs. Mortal Kombat 11
Dragon Age: Inquisition vs. Ori and the Blind Forest
Yakuza 0 vs. The Witness
BioShock Infinite vs. Terraria
Uncharted 4: A Theif's End vs. Mario Kart 8
Mass Effect 2 vs. Fallout 4
Fire Emblem: Awakening vs. Bloodborne

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It's mostly a small detail I want to add or a formulation I think could be better It's not very important but I still want to do it once I'm done.

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Round 3 Division 2 Day 26
Resident Evil 2 50.16%
Bloodborne 49.84%

Prediction Percentage 32.58%

Today was a very hyped match, because while Resident Evil 2 was the clear favorite before the contest began, Bloodborne had showed itself capable of successfully rallying, even while being in front, and that made a good amount of people take Bloodborne instead. The match would end up being the most memorable match in the contest because it had everything. Resident Evil 2 won in the end, giving us the division final we expected, but Bloodborne sure made it seem like there was no nope at time.

Everyone was ready to cast in their votes when the match came up, but once the clock hit the matches didnt change. This technically affected four matches. The division 1 ones were running late and there was another match also being delayed, but none of those results were affected by this at all and probably ended almost the exact the same way. This one however became very controversial because of it. Everyone was looking intensely at the match in the beginning, but we quickly paid less attention as it became clear it wasnt just a small delay. After a while, people expected it to simply not start for another day. Two hours passed without the polls going up, as it broke the record Sonic vs. Samus had all the way back in 2002.

Unless the match ended up not being close at all, there was no longer any way this one would feel legit to everyone, and spoilers, it did end up being close as excitement was there down to the final updates. Its ironic how many of the times weve had poll delays, it ends it a wire to wire match. This match was one of only two of the contest to come down to the last seconds, although a third one came close too. Sonic vs. Samus was also incredibly close. Jill Valentine vs. Ryu Hayabusa was eventually reset and was very close both times. Link vs. Draven wasnt delayed but still had downtime hours and a lot of people believe it flipped the result. Mario vs. Crono was started early and wasnt ended after 24 hours. If we had the votals we used to have, this one would absolutely go down as an all time classic that wed be talking about for years to come.

It turned out the poll delay was due to a glitch caused by now having two matches a day instead of four. Its a huge shame, especially because it would hurt our already bad votals for not just this day but also seemingly days to come. Its what happens. Its a shame, but its fair. The decision to not run the matches the following day and have them run for a full 24 hours is a lot more controversial. It would have been the right thing to do, but Im sure Allen thought it was an equal disadvantage for both games. Board 8 seemed to think it would harm Resident Evil 2 the most, as it was expected to be able to build a good lead before Bloodborne inevitably rallied and began cutting. Its tough to call because Bloodborne wasnt able to put up a thread on time either. The belief that it didnt change the outcome was nave though, but Im thinking Allen hoped it wouldnt end up as close as it did. No one would have minded if this had happened one of the many days where we had a group of matches that werent exciting to follow at all. The easy way out would be to just have a day off, but I suppose Allen wanted everything else to be on schedule.

In any case, the match began surprisingly about two hours and ten minutes later than intended. Bloodborne won the board vote in big fashion, which might seem surprising considering Resident Evil 2 is better here than most places and that most of the board had it in their brackets, but its likely the delay at work. We didnt make out as many of the early votes as we usually do and the votals at the freeze were generally lower to confirm this, but the word quickly spread to everyone that stayed around.

Bloodbornes lead wasnt huge either. It was ahead in the opening minutes and kept it until the freeze, but it was never a lot, and everyone correctly expected Resident Evil 2 to run away with it from there. True enough, the lead change happened at the next update and Resident Evil 2 would slowly build a lead from there. It wasnt too easy though. While Resident Evil 2 was clearly stronger on natural strength, Bloodborne was already proving itself once more. As much as the board liked to criticize Fire Emblem this contest, Awakening no longer looked so bad. Its possible Bloodborne had some momentum going into the round, but it would have won the previous match regardless, so any bandwagon was probably not there, though it might pick it up if it won today.

Fast forward about four hours and Resident Evil 2 has expected its lead to near 400 votes. A good amount that would give it some buffer if the rallied came, but not enough for anyone to feel safe. The biggest lead of the entire match would be a lead of 390 in this time. This was deep into the night hours and Resident Evil 2 suddenly had a tough time extending its lead any further. It seemed to be geography at work. Resident Evil 2 was doing better in the now mostly sleeping North America, while Bloodborne was doing better in Europe. For a while the match stalled around a 350-vote lead for Resident Evil 2.

This is when the Bloodborne rallies started mattering. They came late because of the poll delay, but they came, and they started gaining traction now. Bloodborne cut off about 100 votes in an hour and gaining traction at the same time. Things went even faster in the next hour where Bloodborne removed 200 votes instead. With 14 hours to go, Bloodborne was only 47 votes behind and had a super powerful rally behind it. It looked over at this point.

People were trying to get similar rallies for Resident Evil 2, but it proved a lot more difficult. Not only could they not gain the same kind of traction, but it seemed like the Resident Evil forums were a lot more split on the match and seemed to like both things. The Bloodborne forums, however, were a lot more passionate about their game and it showed. Two updates later the match had the first tie of the match and the Bloodborne went up. The hour that started with Resident Evil 2 being 47 votes ahead ended with Bloodborne being 176 ahead. A fair share of people stopped paying attention. It seemed like counter-rallying was impossible and that Bloodborne would only extend its lead. We had seen Bloodborne capable of successfully rallying when ahead, so it was expected that it would only keep gaining from here and end up winning the match easily. It was reasonable at this point to think Bloodborne would keep it up, gain momentum, win the division and lose to Breath of the Wild, because there are some things a rally of this caliber can not do.

Then the match took a big swing. The Bloodborne subreddit chose to disallow rally threads and removed the successful one that was already there. At least one of the mods there took that decision and that person is the main reason Bloodborne ends up losing. If he had just kept it there a little while longer, it might have ended differently. If he didnt remove it at all, Bloodborne obviously wins no doubt. Even if they disallowed them moving forward, Mass Effect 2 vs. Bloodborne might have been a really good match, because again, no doubt Bloodborne bandwagons from here if it pulled it off. The fans might very well have found other places to rally in the meantime, because again, theyre very passionate about their game.

Those are all what-if things. What happened is that the Bloodborne rallies were removed and Resident Evil 2 was suddenly in the match accord to no doing of its own. Natural trends were in Resident Evil 2s favor and it started slowly cutting right away as you expect. From one moment to the next, people went from thinking Bloodborne was a lock to win to thinking Resident Evil 2 was a lock to win it.

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It was a bumpy road down to take the lead, but it was the same thing when it was building a lead early on, so it all seemed fine. Bloodborne would stall or win some updates, but everything was going in the direction Resident Evil 2 wanted. North America was beginning to wake up as well. But Bloodborne was hanging on somehow. Resident Evil 2 removed 100 votes off the lead a lot faster than it neared in on the lead and when it finally got close, Bloodborne didnt let it happen. Bloodborne was down to a 9-vote lead and everyone expected Resident Evil 2 to take the lead, but it didnt, instead Bloodborne gained and Resident Evil 2 had to cut some more. Then Bloodborne had a 3-vote lead and the exact same thing happens.

Finally, Resident Evil 2 takes the lead with a single vote and extends it to 21 the next update, but Bloodborne still refused to give up. It cut and took the lead again. Resident Evil 2 took it back quickly but couldnt get anywhere with it and soon we had the second tie of the match before Resident Evil 2 took the lead again with a mere 4 votes. Everyone had so safe in a Resident Evil 2 victory a short while ago, but for whatever reason, it couldnt run away with the lead like we thought it would.

The match was exciting for literally every single remaining update except possibly the last very few. It was worth checking in at any point. For the next five hours, Resident Evil 2 would have the lead at any point, but its lead would never be bigger than 62 at its best point and would be as low as 4 votes. It seemed like everything could happen. It became more and more apparent that Resident Evil 2 would not run away with it, despite all of North America being awake again and despite the rallies being removed. This was a great match in itself but remember that all the controversy of the poll delay was being discussed the whole day too. It gave a crazy and nostalgic feel. One side was arguing that Resident Evil 2 was the one hit by it, because the GameFAQs core favored it and at any time of the matches people were coming in surprised to see the matches actually being up, which suggested that some people never came back to see it. On the other hand, Bloodborne might have teared things apart with its rallies for a longer time if the match wasnt 2+ hours short of a full 24.

With less than three hours to go, Bloodborne took the lead again, it was only by 4 votes, but it really highlighted that it was anyones game. There didnt appear to be any trends to favor either game, we seemingly just had three hours of nail biting ahead of us. Over the first of those three hours, Resident Evil 2 made another attempt to build something, but it didnt get anywhere, and Bloodborne removed it again. Then the tables turned. For many hours Bloodborne had been the game desperately hanging on, but now it took the lead and actually kept it a bit. Resident Evil 2 was the one desperately hanging on now. Bloodborne couldnt get anywhere, but when Resident Evil 2 almost had the lead, Bloodborne ran away. This continued for most of the remainder of the match, until the match had its third and final tie with only 25 minutes to go and thats as much of a photo finish match as you can ask for.

The match wasnt just good on paper either. This was a match where people had stronger feelings than in the other close matches so far. Most people had a clear favorite today. It wasnt Mario vs. Crono levels of board explosion, were probably too old for that now, but it still had FFDragon seemingly needing a Resident Evil 2 victory for mental reasons and it all fueled the atmosphere with excitement.

The match would perhaps anti-climactically end with Resident Evil 2 winning by 88 votes, a bigger lead than it had at any point ever since the Bloodborne rallies were active, but I dont think anyone felt truly safe until it was over. The second to last update had Resident Evil 2 rise from 39 to 59 and Im sure that basically sealed the deal in the eyes of many, but this match had been so crazy that we needed to look and poll and look at the next matches starting.

What happened there in the end then? How did Resident Evil 2 suddenly take it so easily when it couldnt get anywhere for many hours? Its not something it seemed like everyone could agree on, but the short answer is most likely that the board favored Resident Evil 2. That absolutely matters in photo finishes like this one. Resident Evil 2 was the game that a majority were ready to go out and rally anybody for. When its this close everything matters. People texting their friends to vote and such. It looked like every single vote could make a difference and so such things happened. Its the best explanation. The 88 votes seem like a lot, but if it enough people were doing it, or if the people doing it was just effective enough, it decided the match. I think Resident Evil 2 having the greater support from the people following the match to the end is what decided things here.

The post-match explosion wasnt very big and its a large reason as to why this match doesnt get close to contending for greatest match ever despite being fantastic. Once it was over, we quickly moved on. The game the board felt should win managed to win. You could argue that Bloodborne was more deserving of a top 16 spot in a Game of the Decade contest. You could argue that it was hurt more by the downtime. You might be right in both cases, but the board was pleased with the victory. In a match without rallies and without downtime, it seemed clear this would have been the result and that means it was pretty widely accepted.

I dont think Resident Evil 2 gained much momentum from winning this match, as Bloodborne likely would have. It would not enter the division finals as the favorite, but most people thought it had a chance of pulling the upset. If there was any doubt prior to this match about whether it was hurt by being a remake, it was perfectly clear now that it wasnt. It might not win without the remake of Resident Evil 3 releasing mid contest, but for a well-established game and franchise I also think its possible it didnt make a difference. Bloodborne being this legit even without rallies also helped fuel the Dark Souls > Skyrim upset hype that had been growing throughout the contest.

Despite all the controversy in this match, it was a ride, it was enjoyable, and you can hate rallies as much as you like, but we need matches like this every now and then, so lets enjoy the ones we get, regardless of how things went down and who you rooted for. This rally wasnt contest breaking and it wouldnt have changed more than two matches at best if they werent removed mid-match. The delay is unfortunate but screw that too. It was part of the reason as to why this match felt so great to follow and reminded us of the days where the contests peaked.

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ctesjbuvf posted...

This technically affected four matches. The division 1 ones were running late and there was another match also being delayed, but none of those results were affected by this at all and probably ended almost the exact the same way.

I'm pretty sure the Division 1 matches did end at the scheduled time. The home page was just blank for 2 hours.

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IIRC it was still possible to vote in them, somehow, perhaps maybe just at first? I seem to remember people talking about their oracle predictions, but maybe I should look at the archives to be certain.

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What I find especially interesting is that after all is said and done, RE2make is projected to get a similar result against RE7 as RE4 is projected to get on RE1 in 2015 (they were both in the same eightpack and even faced a common opponent).

I don't know what to think of Mass Effect 2 being worth 54% on Bloodborne. That makes Bloodborne worth 59% on RE7 and Fire Emblem: Awakening worth 41% on Mass Effect 2. Feels like this might have been the weakest division strength-wise.

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