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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/28/20 11:54:10 AM
#208:


Round 2 Division 4 Day 20
Grand Theft Auto V 60.26%
Cuphead 39.74%

Prediction Percentage 80.61%

Cuphead winning this match was a tempting upset to many before the contest, although not many actually ended up taking it. It doesnt look very good now, because it didnt even come close. It was another slap in the face to indie games, but just as much a time to recognize that Grand Theft Auto V is probably pretty strong all things considered. It will never be as good here as it is anywhere else. All of our contest history backs that up, but it wont job to the first thing that has some strength as some people thought and more people feared.

After the first round, Grand Theft Auto V did look like the better game. Especially if you factor in any anti-votes it might have gotten. Considering its awful board vote, it probably has quite a few of those. Cuphead went neck to neck with it when the match began and still held its lead a minute in. GTAV would end up looking safe by the end of the freeze, but it was still only just above 54% at the freeze. It rose to heaven from there. Theres quite the difference. Indie games typically have very good board votes and that goes for Cuphead too, so the board vote was as funny as they get.

Cuphead failing to get 40% is a disappointment when you consider the chances we gave it, it never had, but thats probably more on us than on it. It still looks to be a good contender for the best indie game in the bracket, although theres a lot of weird results ahead of it. All of GTAV vs. P4G, P4G vs. Xenoblade, Ultimate vs. Xenoblade, BotW vs. Ultimate and BotW vs. Witcher are matches where you need to think once again if the result is natural or the case of some other factors. Thats every single match ahead of Cuphead! Two of those pretty clearly favor Cuphead, two of those pretty dont and the final one is something we cant agree on. It makes it as hard as it gets.

Cuphead looked really good in its Game of the Year polls, clearly indicating its on the high end of the indie rank, so the adjusted x-stats probably has it right. It got a ton of exposure and even a bit of Smash reference since then, so it makes sense to think its up there. Its a shame it was seeded #8 so it would run straight into a #1 seed. Even in the weakest division, that was too much for it. It wouldve been cool to see it elsewhere. Imagine if it switched places with Super Meat Boy, going against Sonic Mania would be a neck to neck match.

Grand Theft Auto V looked really good today, and at the same time Persona 4 Golden only beat Red Read Redemption by a hair. Almost everyone expected GTAV to be the better of the two Rockstar games, so that made GTAV the favorite going into next round as it had been before the contest began, despite that we now knew Persona 4 Golden would be a Persona 4 proxy.

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