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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
05/30/20 6:58:06 PM
#215:


Round 2 Division 5 Day 21
Fallout: New Vegas 53.96%
Dark Souls III 46.04%

Prediction Percentage 48.31%

Fallout: New Vegas was the heavy board favorite here, which should be a little surprising given how close the match was and the trends the contest had, but its a match that highlights very nicely how many experts we have. A general trend weve seen in the contest so far had been that the Soulsborne games have looked very good and theyve also been some of the most memorable and defining games of the decade. Another general thing is that Bethesda has gone downhill quite a bit since the beginning of the decade, although they started it very high. Fallout was certainly a stronger series the last time we had a games contest, where both Fallout 3 and New Vegas were looking better than Dark Souls, but times change.

The people that did not consider a Soulsborne boost, but simply looked at previous stats likely all picked New Vegas today without thinking twice about it. For once that worked out nicely, but it was a close call. New Vegas got less today than it was projected to get against Dark Souls in 2015. We still predicted this one very nicely in the oracle though. The Souldborne boost was clear this time, but people also knew that Dark Souls III would not be nearly as strong as the first one. It appears to be that its closer within the fanbase, but overall, the first one has gathered so much more respect. The third one is basically what the first one was five years ago.

The overall boost couldve easily been enough to win this match, especially if you thought the Bethesda decline would strike New Vegas today. Yet the board also correctly expected that New Vegas would not be harmed much by this, because it wasnt developed by Bethesda, but only published by them. Of course, there are almost always exceptions, and it was reasonable to go higher on New Vegas or pick Dark Souls III, but this result was the general consensus on the board. New Vegas would have the edge, but it would be close. I think our board as a whole deserves some respect every now and then for things like this. Its often brought up when we collectively screw up, so lets bring it up when the opposite happens. The board seemed confident about this, and its not often you see us being so confident in a match as close in percentage as this one. Its one thing when we had a Link vs. Cloud like this every year and we knew what would happen, but this was impressive.

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