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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/01/20 6:57:42 AM
#224:


Round 2 Division 6 Day 22
Animal Crossing: New Leaf 42.39%
Read Dead Redemption 2 57.61%

Prediction Percentage 69.82%

This match would probably not have been a doubt half a year before. Red Dead Redemption is not as fantastic here as other places, but its still pretty good, it just doesnt get any praise because its results are disappointing and not surprising to the common eye. The second one had a huge release. The FAQs for Rockstar games are pretty frequented here too and they remain on top of the charts for a long time. Even on GameFAQs, this match should not be in much doubt.

However, when Animal Crossing: New Horizons just had one of the biggest launches of all time leading right up to the contest, suddenly New Leaf doing the impossible seemed like a possibility. Last contest was also one of our most Nintendo dominant contest to date with everything that appeared in Smash looking at least decent. Ironically, Red Dead Redemption 2 is one of two games ever with a launch better than or as good as New Horizons. Theyre tough to compare because Nintendo released numbers for the first eleven days while RDR2 got numbers for the first two days. New Horizons certainly wins if you do a console split, then it probably also beats the #1, Grand Theft Auto V. This obviously doesnt matter much. New Horizons was the hottest game in the world during this contest, likely fueled by the lockdown, but also fueled by the game being a perfect game to play during lockdown.

The match wasnt really close though. The opening minutes were fun, because while Red Dead Redemption 2 clearly had the early bracket votes (and Im calling it bracket votes since theres no way board 8 favors a Rockstar game over Animal Crossing), New Leaf actually closed the gap for some minutes before RDR2 went ahead again. The first updates post the freeze werent big, but when a Rockstar game is leading at that point its very likely to win the match, and so it did, extending its percentage throughout the day.

The main reason that New Horizons hype wasnt enough to pull the upset is without much doubt simply that it wasnt New Horizons competing. It probably helped New Leaf a bit, but the gap was way too big. Remember how awful New Leaf looked in the previous contest? Yes, it was SFFd, but it also got Undertale rally spillover boosted. It was clearly a bottom game of the contest. It had a huge gap to close. It would be fun to see New Horizons in a contest right now. Itll probably be alright whenever we get a games contest again. Im not doubting it makes the field if its eligible, but I think the craze will be over by then. It will be remembered as a great game, but its during lockdown it had a chance to pull something like this off and likely be super easy to rally for.

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