Board 8 > ~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~

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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 4:33:02 PM
#1:


Welcome to my Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) for Game of the Decade II! I have done one of these before during our previous games contest back in 2015. My motivation is first and foremost that I love these contests, theyre the primary reason Im here and have been here for a long time by now. I love discussing them and I believe I have some great points to bring to the table. I learned recently that Im the fifth best overall guru for the previous decade, which is all the ones Ive participated in, and while I made incorrect assumptions pre-contest of course, Ive been right about all but two matches involving the same game since round 2 began and was the first to predict azuarc as guru winner. This sounds a lot more arrogant than intended. I am trying to make a point that I want t share my thoughts because I think theres some level of quality in them, which is a great motivation for me as well. A lot of the ideas Ill put fourth will be ideas that Ive had presented to me by other contest nerds here. None of this means everything here is facts, obviously, and I hope a lot of the write-ups can lead to some discussion. Im also not trying to turn any attention away from Ulti or any other PCA. Those were a great inspiration for me to do this five years ago and I always read and enjoy them, I recommend you do the same! I do think its fun to see different perspectives, however. The primary point of the topic is that we look back at every match with what we know post contest and analyze why things went as they did where Ill begin the discussion with me write-up.

I have no specific timetable for this. The most important thing for me is to keep a consistent pace. Without rushing things, I expect to not move slower than the contest did and I will strive to do more than four matches a day on average, although what matches come up will also influence that, there will obviously be a lot more to say about some than others. My schedule is usually not very consistent, but due to the pandemic, its more consistent than ever, which hopefully means the pacing will be constant. When that is said, there may be days off if something comes up, but I will do my best to learn of such days ahead and possible have some write-ups ready. Also, Im European and the times I post these will reflect that.

Finally, be nice to everyone! Im a stats topic regular and I enjoy them, but occasionally the discussion gets unfriendly and aggressive. Youre entitled to disagree with me or others, but please do so without being rude and keep insults out of here. The saying that stupid questions doesnt exist but only stupid answers has a lot of truth to it. Please do your best to be polite.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 4:41:04 PM
#2:


Pre-Contest Thoughts
The first Game of the Decade was a fantastic contest. It was quite possibly the best contest weve had, so I was very excited when this one was announced as expected. In fact, Ive been some level of excited since the previous one ended, but mostly instantly afterwards and the past years. A lot have happened here since then, so its a slightly different format. While still 128 entrants in a 1v1 bracket, this time 12-hour matches are no longer a thing, instead we have several matches a day, which I do prefer.

Since then weve had some large rallies overtaking the contest partly due to the aforementioned low votals, so in 2018 a lot of anti-rally measurements were taken and all of those still apply today. This meant a registered user bonus when voting so that votes count double if you registered an account before the contest began and it also meant you had to vote in every match a day. The former of the two had changed results in the previous contest, so it is worth factoring in. The second thing while smaller likely also makes a difference in earlier matches.

There were no losers bracket this time, perhaps partly because most of the field has not been a contest before, so who would you remove? Of course, we couldve still had the losers bracket when we reached top 16 if we wanted to, but I dont mind it not being around this time, in particular if it would be constructed like last time where you run into the same entrant again in the losers bracket instead of being thrown into the opposite side. We did still get a second chance bracket that would go up in a week long break after the first three rounds, so there would still be something other than the regular bracket challenge to work on. Last Game of the Decade we had the Battle Challenge contest. I like that we try out some different things, as long as we keep the ordinary challenge.

Nominations went on for quite a while this time, there was a few delays for unexplained reasons both during nominations and during bracket creation. It did serve the purpose of pushing the contest into the time where the whole world was closed down to the pandemic and I have personally loved having this during the worst of it. The timing was perfect to me. The most interesting thing we learned during the nomination period was that remakes and remasters were in the database making them eligible for the first time. Allen actively removed Ocarina of Time 3D and Majoras Mask 3D indicating that it had to be full remakes, but the line ended up being shaky. The database had things such as Shadow of the Colossus and Ico, which would be very weird and stupid to have in the contest so perhaps Allen only actively removed the Zelda games because people were actually nominating them.

The bracket came out and theres a lot to talk about there. On the account of remakes, three of them ended up being in and it shows that the line of eligibility is a bit weird. Resident Evil 2 is quite the different game and right after its Game of the Year victory here it was expected to make it in. Then we had Pokemon HeartGold and SoulSilver and Persona 4 Golden, which were both more debatable. The latter especially is not much more original than the Zelda games, so perhaps Allen just specifically wanted no previous contest winners. Hopefully well still be able to see FFVIIR in a decade from now, thats a vastly different game! All three remakes were high seeds, so its possible Allen were not hugely in favor of remakes in general while these three were too popular to keep out. They made for a lot of discussion about whether or not they would act as proxies for the games theyre a remake of and to what extent.

While were talking about Pokemon, one of the first things I noticed were how little representation it had. The only entry is a remake of a 90s game which didnt even release this decade in Japan. It seems odd that Pokemon GO or some other generation didnt get in especially considering HGSS was seeded 3. Was it really favored that much? I have a hard time believing that no other Pokemon game had no more nominations than some of the things that made it in, perhaps Allen thought one was enough seeing how similar they are.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 4:41:27 PM
#3:


No franchise had more than two games in the bracket and this is clearly a rule that have been said. Mario did have three games in the bracket if you count Mario Kart, but it would perhaps be a bit too extreme to include all spin-off games from Mario. I do still think this is a bit too extreme. I understand that Allen wanted the most representative bracket as possible for a contest titled Game of the Decade and I believe the lack of a second Pokemon game is due to Allen thinking they arent different enough. It did however not make for a better contest in my opinion. We had a lot of fodder in this contest. That was always gonna happen when we excluded everything before 2010, but it was more than necessary imo. The bracket became a bit too chalky as a result and round 1 would have a lot of expected blowouts. I think the run Mario Kart 8 ended up doing is exactly what Allen wanted to avoid too much of.

Nintendo is by far the most unfortunate when it comes to the bracket. The rule itself prevented stuff like Skyward Sword and a Mario Maker from making it in and I think its a real shame. I dont think a franchise should be punished for being too good. Imagine if a 90s GotY contest only had two of 3, World and 64, everyone would riot! The cap only need to be a little higher than two and wed have more interesting matches in round 1. It also results in the 3DS, which was a good contender for best console early in the bracket, have almost no games in the bracket, because we slightly prefer console games. Bracket placement was also rough on Nintendo. Allen wanted to avoid Nintendo domination, but I think he went overboard. Ultimate/Odyssey and BotW/the winner of that means that we would get no real read on the other big Switch games and have mostly boring matches. At this point of the contest, everyone was certain Ultimate was winning the former too and while doubt came as we went, and it ended up being true. It doesnt even stop there though! Big 2015 snub A Link Between Worlds was fed directly to Smash. Xenoblade 2 couldve been fun elsewhere and if you count them, both Bayonetta games were given completely unwinnable first round matches. After a contest where everything represented in Smash was stronger than expected, only HGSS, Mario Kart 8, Awakening and the winner of Xenoblade/Three Houses had a chance to do that. The biggest shame is definitely not getting a real feel for Odyssey and Ultimate.

When that is all said, Allen did succeed at making a very diverse bracket. Not just by the variation in types of games but also in release years. I have forgotten who, but someone made this nice chart showing that there isnt too much of a difference between how well each year was being represented:

https://imgur.com/a/8GSjaYU

Of course, some are a bit more than others and rightfully so, wed learn, but no year was snubbed.

Breath of the Wild was perhaps the most expected winner we have ever had, and for sure for a new entrant unless we count Link/Ganondorf and 1998 as new entrants. All contenders for second were thrown in the opposite half of the bracket. Look at the games seeded 1. I dont doubt its on purpose that the Nintendo game and the two weakest were put into the same half as Breath of the Wild. Except for this however, we knew almost nothing of the field and some of the entries we had seen before like Witcher 3 and Dark Souls were expected to be much stronger due to respect and the contest title. A vast majority of the games were not in the 2015 contest either due to being too weak or just not released. Part of what made Game of the Decade I such a great contest was that most of the big games were left out and its the same thing here, only this time we had not had a games contest a small year before so we had much less to base our predictions on, so it was very exciting to get going.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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#4
Post #4 was unavailable or deleted.
ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 4:53:13 PM
#5:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Good shit! Dont be shy about archiving on the wiki, brother.

Thanks, pal! Yeah, I'll put them there sometime after you make the pages.

If anyone enjoys doing so, you're obviously welcome too. Averia was a huge help last time. If you see this, thanks again! But I'll get them there otherwise.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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hylianknight3
05/13/20 4:57:51 PM
#6:


Taggerino

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Kampfmaschine Advokaiser punched my lights out in the 2018 Guru.
My bracket was soft... just like my heart!
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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 5:04:14 PM
#7:


Round 1 Division 1 Day 1
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 85.02%
The Outer Worlds 14.98%

Prediction Percentage 96.95%

For the opening match of the contest, this was actually a pretty interesting one. It was the clear sign of just how beastly Breath of the Wild would be. Of course BotW would win big and of course it would have the biggest prediction percentage of the contest, but breaking 85% is insane. Only three other games failed to break 15% and they all ended up at the bottom of the x-stats too. This also came right after a contest where only a match involving our most hated character, Draven, was such a big blowout. Breath of the Wild is an expected winner, that almost always gives you some number of anti-votes and sure enough, Breath of the Wild did worse in the first 15 minutes, but its still incredible.

The craziest thing is it didnt face some of the worst turbofodder we had in this bracket. The Outer Worlds had just finished right behind Sekiro in a GotY poll, a game that was a popular upset pick to make round 3 and neither was that far away from the overall winner, Resident Evil 2. It was clearly ahead of Devil May Cry 5 in that poll. There is a lot of uncertainty in using Game of the Year polls for anything, but theyre a fine indicator. The Outer Worlds could probably win a fair share of matches, but instead it got to be completely obliterated against the contest favorite. Now, The Outer Worlds probably has a less dedicated fanbase than a bunch of our other weak entries, which might help fuel BotW. The game is often confused with Outer Wilds, that says something about it, but even so, Breath of the Wild opened up looking even better than expected and we expected it to roll over the contest, thats very impressive.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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#8
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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 5:22:27 PM
#9:


Round 1 Division 1 Day 1
Halo: Reach 56.15%
Life is Strange 43.85%

Prediction Percentage 65.82%

Our first debatable match of the contest, but not the most debated match going on even though its the closest. This was really a match of which game sucks less. Halo has not been relevant here for a long time. The first game was decently strong a decade ago, but not very good give years ago. Halo 3 also clearly looked weaker and 2 was only in the GotD contest. Halo: Reach is a 2010 game, meaning it couldve been in five years so it would be expected to be a good amount weaker. You could also make a case for Halo to have continued its decline, Master Chief certainly didnt look worth much in 2018. Not that he often does, but it might be a new low.

Then theres Life is Strange, which has a very loud and dedicated fanbase, but we also saw five years ago that its very weak where it destroyed by Fallout 3. Dont let its final percentage against Fallout 3 fool you by the way, Undertale had its first match at the same time. Fallout 3 had more than 80% until the huge Undertale rally happened affecting this match because Life is Strange is exactly tumblrs kind of game. I think perhaps this was commonly forgetting from people making a case for Life is Strange today, though I believe more releases way used as an argument for why it could be stronger. Weve also seen a Life is Strange character in action now, namely Chloe Price, who made the 2018 field and was killed by Lightning in a debated match. Thats a major red flag there, because while its fair to assume the game is stronger than its secondary character, Lightning showed to be very weak as well and its not a coincidence the other two major Final Fantasy games got into the contest above XIII.

Thats what this match came down to. Of these two games of little two no strength, which is worth the least. It ended up being Halo in a somewhat close match, but never one that was in doubt. Halo went out in front with its assumed bracket votes and never looked back. The match was over right away. There were small talks of rallies, but I dont think they were many this time after nothing happened in Chloes match last contest. The fear is a mix of a fear of rallies in general and LiS boosting so much from the Undertale rally meaning if you could gather the same people that came here before there was a chance. It has not happened so far though, partly but not exclusively because tumblr is dead.

It all boils down to one thing. Halo is more this sites type of game, even if its not our favorite genre and Microsofts best days arent these days. Everyone knows what Halo is and that absolutely matters, particularly when youre forced to vote in four matches. Life is Strange is not our type of game and never will be, no matter how many of them they release. Its first and foremost not a game that youd ever need help in, but more importantly, it has a younger demographic than us. Also, it just isnt as big as some of us like to make it out to be. Ive seen people absolutely love it mostly because of relatable characters you can really feel, especially in our time. Ive played it myself and it was enjoyable, but nothing revolutionary. I also didnt think any of the actors were all too great though mostly fine. While I was hooked at first, I did not think it could round the story off properly.

Having played the game might be reason I picked against it here, because while its hard to be confident in a Halo game, you should never feel confident in having a game like this do well on our site. However, it has a dedicated enough fanbase that it will probably return to the field again.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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Averia
05/13/20 5:32:49 PM
#10:


I think Halo has finally bottomed out.
I mean, it's just a hollow shell of it's former strength, but I don't think it's going to decline to turbo fodder level.
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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 5:38:10 PM
#11:


That's probably true. Microsoft will keep it as relevant as it is now. With any luck they'll make a good one again.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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_SecretSquirrel
05/13/20 5:45:04 PM
#12:


As someone that picked LiS, I realized it was a risky one pointer, but I figured that even accounting for LiS overperforming against Fallout 3 due to Undertale rallies, I figured the additional time on the market, a prequel, and a sequel might have given it enough starch to overcome a Halo series side game. It didn't work out, but it still felt nice to take a risk on the only game in the bracket that actually got enough emotion out of me to get me in tears.

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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc, winner of Game of the Decade!
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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 5:57:53 PM
#13:


That's understandable, particularly for a 1 point match, and it was reasonable close. I've done that a few times too.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 5:59:48 PM
#14:


Round 1 Division 1 Day 1
Final Fantasy XV 74.65%
What Remains of Edith Finch 25.35%

Prediction Percentage 88.19%

What Remains of Edith Finch looked like a candidate of being the absolute weakest entry in the bracket on paper. Final Fantasy XV is a previous GotY winner and it fell short of a tripling today. That should have been our first warning flag of FFXV struggling to get to round 3. It was mostly credited to Final Fantasys inability to score big blowouts, however. FFVII has looked off in so many contests and still managed to get where it should unless its 2013 where to be fair, almost nothing did. At high percentages, it obviously doesnt take a lot of anti-votes to not score big and Final Fantasy is good at getting such. XV is probably better at it than most of them. It was initially fairly well liked here, as shown by winning GotY, but it still represents a lot of the issues with modern Square and it would not have won GotY most years. Its development was quite a rollercoaster both before release and during DLC phase. The canceled stuff probably doesnt help it much either. Also, despite it being more stupid every single contest, Im positive Final Fantasy always wins still gives it some anti-votes despite it not being true since Sephiroth won the villains contest 15 years ago.

Final Fantasy XV might have benefit slightly from brand name here however, which should have made next round scary as well, but it took a while before some people anticipated a possible Hollow Knight upset since its hard to make much of big blowouts and since the indie craze hadnt really shown itself yet. At this point, we were not paying much attention as other matches stole the spotlight. As for Edith Finch? Well, when youre never gonna win a match and is just happy to be here, getting Final Fantasy XV is probably among the best you could hope for. Breaking 25% in its only match means it can happily leave the contest!

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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PostContestUlti
05/13/20 6:04:40 PM
#15:


You don't need to put the score on the wiki. That eventually gets done with pictures and such.

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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 6:07:57 PM
#16:


PostContestUlti posted...
You don't need to put the score on the wiki. That eventually gets done with pictures and such.

Thanks for the heads up. I like having them here because I often reference them.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 6:10:38 PM
#17:


Round 1 Division 1 Day 1
Hollow Knight 62.81%
Tales of Berseria 37.19%

Prediction Percentage 75.63%

The final match of the first day gave us a major blow to board 8 from casuals. This match was hotly debated on board 8 and when something doesnt even break 40%, thats on us. Hollow Knight was the guru favorite, so we werent completely off, but it was very evenly split. It also serves as our first indicator of indie games being legit, but that didnt really take off until the next day. While the gurus favored Hollow Knight, the oracles did not and those are the bigger contest nerds. With 61.82%, Black Turtle had by far the best oracle prediction and it lower than the actual result. He sure made us here for it too! Then look at the prediction percentage. This was an embarrassing start for us even if we made up for later on.

It was almost over right away, but there were a few minutes of hope for Berseria. It certainly had the board vote to the surprise of no one. A minute into the match, Berseria was doubling Hollow Knight, then suddenly Hollow Knight rose to heaven and was almost doubling Berseria at the freeze. The match had everyones attention, but the next update sealed the deal completely. Hollow Knight extended its lead above 200 votes and never looked back.

What happened then? Basically everything we could look at indicated the match being even, and in even matches picking the RPG is usually a good call. Hollow Knight lost big time in its two GotY polls. Tales of Berseria had no such polls to make predictions based on, which probably didnt speak well for it, but means to was untested. Kingdom Hearts III was snubbed from GotY too and that game had decent enough strength to win here. Velvet was in our latest contest and won a match with relative ease before getting almost 30% on Yoshi. Such strength could be enough today.

For a long time, Hollow Knight was believed to just be really good. A contender for best indie game, which quickly looked to be a decent title. Also, a crucial thing a lot of people didnt take into account when making this prediction was Hollow Knights Switch exposure coming later than its original release. I had Berseria today and expected it to be close thinking Hollow Knight was of the same strength as in its first GotY poll. Had I realized it wasnt initially on the Switch, I would have picked it. I would not have felt safe, but I would have picked it. Last contest proved being on Switch is a really good thing.

It seems clear now that the result had a lot more to do with Tales of Berseria simply being absurdly weak. Not that anyone thought it wasnt weak after today, but its even worse than anticipated. It looks straight up awful. The Tales series is extremely niche these days, being mostly only cared about in very specific RPG happy circles like board 8. Symphonia looks like it will always be the strongest of these despite being limited to the Gamecube outside of Japan for a long time, and the previous games contest showed us it isnt even the strongest RPG on the Gamecube as it lost to Paper Mario II. Not that there is any shame in that since Paper Mario II is perfect. A decade after Vesperia did slightly worse than anticipated, were taught to have no faith in this franchise in contests and we got a good early reminder that characters =/= games.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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ctesjbuvf
05/13/20 6:12:20 PM
#18:


That's it for tonight since it's getting late here. Wanted to begin this before people potentially disappeared again (although we do have bonus day tomorrow), but not too far from the end either.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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PostContestUlti
05/13/20 6:33:24 PM
#19:


Averia posted...
I think Halo has finally bottomed out.
I mean, it's just a hollow shell of it's former strength, but I don't think it's going to decline to turbo fodder level.
Please let me page the actual pages on the wiki. It's a favored tradition of mine. Thanks bro!

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ctesjbuvf
05/14/20 5:21:42 AM
#21:


Round 1 Division 1 Day 2
Monster Hunter: World 57.95%
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy 42.05%

Prediction Percentage 88.85%

This match went almost exactly like most of us expected, but unlike most matches that go that way, most appeared to not have a correct read on either games strength, just a correct read on the ratio between them. Because even as the games both ended up in the matches where most people expected them to, they look a lot better than we thought at the other side of the contest. Bravely Default appears to be quite legit and its a shame it got a completely unwinnable match because it couldve damaged brackets elsewhere in a similar fashion to Octopath. Being a Square RPG on a Nintendo console is a good thing apparently. As Monster Hunter also ended up being a lot closer to Dragon Quest than expected, we instead of learned of Bravely Default being legit as the contest went on. Hopefully its not the last time we see it in the field, although with its low seeding in a Game of the Decade bracket it might very well be.

This match set up Monster Hunter as the clear favorite for round 2. It was the guru favorite too, but Sekiro beating it was a fairly popular upset, but everyone had a hard time seeing Ni no Kuni get close to Bravely Default. That had more to do with the following match however.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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MetalmindStats
05/14/20 8:43:02 AM
#22:


_SecretSquirrel posted...
It didn't work out, but it still felt nice to take a risk on the only game in the bracket that actually got enough emotion out of me to get me in tears.
I wish I could have taken such a risk myself, but I had to settle for at least seeing the only game that reduced me to tears in the field, which was great in its own right.

PostContestUlti posted...
You don't need to put the score on the wiki. That eventually gets done with pictures and such.
Well, it still hasn't been done for 2018, so I guess I'll have to start taking and adding those pictures at some point soon.

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"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
azuarc won the 2020 Guru Contest because he avoided picking rashly.
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banananor
05/14/20 11:47:31 AM
#23:


what's crazy is that hollow knight defeated ffxv if you only counted anonymous votes

don't know if that's because of stuffing or rallying, or the gamefaqs userbase just liking everything final fantasy

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#24
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ctesjbuvf
05/14/20 12:25:31 PM
#25:


Round 1 Division 1 Day 2
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice 58.57%
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch 41.43%

Prediction Percentage 78.35%

Sekiro won the match with relative ease as it was supposed to, but for anyone that picked Sekiro to round 3, this was not what you had hoped for. Ni no Kuni is beyond irrelevant at this point and is probably only remember for being animated by Studio Ghibli. While it is a very pretty game indeed, its rather forgettable and I would not have been surprised to see it not make the field at all.

Lets stay at the pretty animations part for a bit though. While I switched to Monster Hunter > Sekiro after this day of matches, I did not think this was as bad as people thought. Because if you have not played either of the two, Ni no Kuni stands out quite a bit. I can see people thinking Well, it looks nice and I like Studio Ghibli here. I couldve done that in some matters myself if I didnt care for either game. Thats despite having actually attempted to play Ni no Kuni. I just got bored of it and never got around to finishing it.

Now, although round 2 certainly did not do that line many favors, Im about ready to pick it up again on the other side of the contest. Because while Sekiro didnt get close to winning next round, this whole fourpack ends up looking good, all in the better half of the bracket. Its hard a bit hard to imagine, but I think it makes the above point good after all. You could argue that it just has the right genre for us to care about it, but there are certain games today and yesterday proving it is not necessarily so. I have a hard time imagining Ni no Kuni put up much of a number on anything, but it seems like the kind of game thats also hard to blowout entirely. I would not pick it above FFXV or Hollow Knight as the stats suggest, but I still think the stats tell us something. The game is forgettable to many, but rarely ever disliked, and we all remember what it is when seeing it in a poll. Sekiro is also a recent game and here on the other side of the contest, being a year old has not looked to do anything any favors anymore, were slow on this site. So its a good game for Ni no Kuni to perform well on while going out.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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Gall
05/14/20 1:35:51 PM
#26:


I agree that there was a little too much turbofodder in this bracket. Of course everyone wants to see their personal favorite make it in (Talos Principle says hi), but the best matches come from 2 fairly even, mid-to-low powered games.
Matchups like Ori/Dragon Age, Batman/Xenoblade 2, Hollow Knight/FF15, Octopath/Shovel Knight, and New Vegas/Dark Souls 3 are good examples and there should've been more like those, especially in round 1.

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Toss a win to your azuarc
O guru of GotD
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LinkMarioSamus
05/14/20 2:51:27 PM
#27:


I picked Monster Hunter to win because I hear about it more. Albeit much of that is because my brother plays it.

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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
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ctesjbuvf
05/14/20 6:48:02 PM
#28:


Round 1 Division 1 Day 2
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series 47.75%
Bastion 52.25%

Prediction Percentage 33.76%

In the good old day 2 curse fashion, we have our first upset of the contest, both overall and in the guru. No one expected Bastion to be worth anything, so it was expected The Walking Dead could win on just brand name alone here. This match eliminated more than half the users that entered Last Man Standing, in a very similar fashion to Dragon Quest VIII vs. Persona 3 did last games contest. TWD was still was not a bad pick. The match was close for a while, especially in the first hours. It would become the first match of the contest that stayed exciting for more than a couple of minutes.

The Walking Dead starting out building a small lead for a minute, but then stood roughly still for the rest of the time until the freeze with a lead of around 50 votes. Obviously, that was a huge red flag given how we know most of the board bracket voted TWD. The next update gave TWD a small gain but not what you would have hoped backing it in your bracket since bracket voted were still likely in play. The next update was just a single vote gain, but then 20 minutes into the match, the first cut happened, and I dont think anyone trusted TWD from that point forward. Bastion would follow this up with yet another cut bringing the lead down to 18 votes at which point anyone should expect a lead change at one of the next two updates.

Then some hope came out of nowhere because TWD almost doubled the lead again instead. Suddenly excitement for the match was there, it felt like TWD perhaps was capable of slightly more than bracket votes. The next update stood still, so it seemed like it wasnt just a onetime fluke, but a closer look would lead you to see a spike from TWD and then Bastion having a bad update. That could not be good, right? Nope, Bastion cut the lead down to 8 votes next update. At this point it seemed like just a matter of time, but the large group of us with TWD in our brackets still hoped to see it gain again.

The next update made must of us give up though. Bastion didnt just take the lead, it lead by 54 votes next update, almost more than TWD had at any point so far except for perhaps the first minute. It seemed over at that point. While the following updates would be more stale and even sometimes have TWD cutting a few votes for a stall, Bastion would push the lead over 100 with relative and most often, such things does not turn around often these days.

We had a couple of more hours of excitement waiting for us, however! TWD suddenly cut the lead from 135 to 100. Mostly due to Bastion having an off update. Then it cut again. The lead would be down to 87. Were we seeing a comeback attempt? It takes three updates to call it a trend, but those updates were pretty good. TWD tripped however and Bastion took its lead back above 100. False alarm it would seem. Should we give up now? After all, its just a 1-point match where the winner has no chance in hell to win another match.

Then TWD cut the lead from 109 votes to 62. There was reason to pay attention now. Small cuts typically mean nothing, but that was nothing like a small cut, and winning three out of the past four updates could mean TWD was starting to make a comeback, right? Well, the next one did it no favors, as Bastion raised the lead again to 72. Nothing big, but TWD needed to keep its momentum up. Fortunately for it, it reversed that update with the next one, seemingly still having a chance. A stall happened next, and then TWD cut the lead down to 52. Things werent exactly going fast, but it had removed over half of Bastions lead in 25 minutes. Things were going its way and at this point, it was reasonable to hope it could take the lead back. The next update really fueled that line of thought. TWD cut the lead down to 26, Bastions smallest lead so far. It could keep this up seemingly.

Bastions lead of 26 would end up being the closest The Walking Dead was from taking it back. That half hour ends up looking a bit weird. The TWD votes concentration then seemingly. The next updates didnt seal the deal, so we paid attention for a while longer, but all in vain. The next two updates had Bastion increase its lead by no more than a single vote. The match moved nowhere for a while, having Bastion lead by 32 half an hour later. Not exactly a lead you should feel safe about, but TWD couldnt get past it. After a few more stalling updates, Bastion finally took off again likely killing most hope, but just as it went above 100 votes gain, TWD showed us yet another round of false hope. It cut for five updates straight, which took more than half of the lead and put it back at 52. Only then, more than four hours into the match, could Bastion take off for good.

It did not look back from that point forward. Well, occasionally TWD stalled and made a small cut, but Bastion mostly went in one direction from that point forward. Slow and steady, it built its lead to win with around 1000 votes in the end. Most might not remember it anymore, because weve had close matches that were important and where we cared about the games, but this was a great match to have day 2. Giving us the great old feeling of excitingly checking the poll updater every fifth minute and getting nothing done. Somehow, no match ever fails to make me care if its this close, and although it didnt last the whole match, it was enjoyable for what it was!

The Walking Dead was almost at the bottom of the 2015 stats, so obviously it was never going to be strong. People that expected it to be ever weaker had the right idea. The zombie craze from the early part of the decade is no more, and telltale games have run their course. Still, in matches like this, it was reasonable for anyone to guess the more well-known name would pull it off with bracket votes and forces voting. Unfortunately, that can only help you so much, and it seems we will never see TWD win a match here. It has no reason to come back either.

One might think our reaction to this would be realizing The Walking Dead was even worse than we thought. Maybe thats how well think if we look at it now. That was however not the most common reaction. Instead, everyone cheered that indie games were now legit and should be feared. Hollow Knight has gotten more than 60% in a debated match and even Bastion had reached round 2. It didnt appear to matter much that it was only two matches that had a Tales of and a poorly aged telltale game. People were scared of every indie game in any of the debatable matches they had, which would continue throughout the rest of round 1.

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Safer_777
05/14/20 7:05:09 PM
#29:


Indie Fear baby! Even in my analysis I said that because yeah we thought that since there were so many indies and we thought that at least one of them would catch a rally or be natural strong.
Boy we were wrong.

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ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 5:56:21 AM
#30:


Round 1 Division 1 Day 2
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age 80.67%
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC 19.33%

Prediction Percentage 92.10%

The final match that I could watch start at 1am instead of 2am because of the damned daylight savings. Oh well. Dragon Quest overperformed quite a bit here, proving to us that its truly legit. Which is good for it, because it would need to be later on, when Monster Hunter showed it was worth more than we though. This is the first time in a contest that Dragon Quest has looked great. It has been at best fine before, but this is on another level. XI has had great reception and it probably also did no harm that Dragon Quest now has Smash Bros representation, as like 75% of the elite characters these days is in Ultimate. In that regard, its a shame it got to be the #2 in this division, but something had to run into Breath of the Wild.

Trails in the Sky SC is just happy to be here. Its a cult favorite, so I wouldnt have been surprised to see it seeded higher. It doesnt matter much though; it would lose most matches it could have gotten. Estelle Bright was in our precious contest and neared the bottom of the x-stats. At this point, the game looked to follow along. We can praise Dragon Quest, but at this point it couldve just as well be that Trails in the Sky SC was just that bad. Yesterday we saw Tales of Berseria being very bad. Worse relative to the field that Velvet was. The result here could very well be a combination of the two.

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LusterSoldier
05/15/20 6:07:19 AM
#31:


ctesjbuvf posted...
Nintendo is by far the most unfortunate when it comes to the bracket. The rule itself prevented stuff like Skyward Sword and a Mario Maker from making it in and I think its a real shame. I dont think a franchise should be punished for being too good. Imagine if a 90s GotY contest only had two of 3, World and 64, everyone would riot! The cap only need to be a little higher than two and wed have more interesting matches in round 1.


Final Fantasy would be hurt more by a 2 game series cap in a 1990s GotD contest because we'd only get FFVI and FFVII, while FFVIII and FFIX fail to make the bracket. Also, FFIV would miss the bracket, and that's Allen's favorite game so his own rule would work against him if he tried to use it in a 1990s GotD contest.
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ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 6:38:08 AM
#32:


Yeah, that's another perfect example as to why it would be a terrible idea. I chose Mario as the example because I figured the one not getting of 3/World/64 would be the strongest game to not make the bracket.

This time he clearly wanted to shine light on smaller things. There's not nearly as much point in doing that for 90s stuff, so I won't worry if we actually get the contest.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/15/20 6:44:39 AM
#33:


FFIX wouldn't make it anyway because it came out in 2000.

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LusterSoldier
05/15/20 7:32:46 AM
#34:


LinkMarioSamus posted...
FFIX wouldn't make it anyway because it came out in 2000.


You're right, I forgot about that. Especially due to it being on the PS1, it can be easy to mistake it for being a 1990s game. Though it terms of game style and graphics, it does feel more like a 1990s game than a 2000s.
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ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 7:53:23 AM
#35:


IIRC, FFIX was one of like 5 games from that generation to be in the previous Game of the Decade. Majora is the most memorable one, but we also had Perfect Dark, Chrono Cross and Paper Mario. Maybe I'm forgetting something.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/15/20 8:09:43 AM
#36:


WWF No Mercy lol

Also Legend of Dragoon and Pokmon Gold/Silver.

And on the PC side, Deus Ex, Baldur's Gate II, Diablo II, and The Sims

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ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 8:11:20 AM
#37:


Oh, right. I could not have told you that Legend of Dragoon made it in without looking it up, but I knew the other two.

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ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 8:25:16 AM
#38:


Round 1 Division 2 Day 3
Mass Effect 2 62.94%
Resident Evil 7: biohazard 37.06%

Prediction Percentage 75.53%

When youre the favorite to win a division, you are not supposed to only get 63% in round 1. Something was clearly off here. The prediction percentage was also lower than every other match in the division except for the one including casual bait and rally feared Fortnite. Fallout 4 got a significantly higher number against indie game VVVVVV, and we had just learned those things were legit. Resident Evil 7? Does anyone care about the series at this point? The remakes brought back some fuel, but the early games were always popular. The fifth one was fine, but nothing extraordinary like what it followed up on. The sixth was bad and the seventh wasnt extraordinary either, and it was promoted mostly through VR.

This was how it looked at the time. Mass Effect 2 looked like it could potentially lose to Fallout 4, maybe the round after that, and it was certainly not the favorite in the division finals after this point. That went to Resident Evil 2 now maybe even DOOM or Bloodborne seemed more likely. This division played out perfectly that way because every round 2 match felt uncertain. Andromeda was obviously expected as the main reason for what looked a decline, but we hoped that people wouldnt punish previous entries for that and that the contest title would help Mass Effect 2 out, as it is often brought up in such discussions.

Of course, we know now that Mass Effect 2 is just fine and the thing that was off was the seeding of Resident Evil 7. This was considered at the time, but we werent sure for a while. I think in hindsight, we can figure out why. Resident Evil is still a huge franchise name. The fourth title is one of the most popular and revolutionary games ever and everyone knows what it is. The REmakes have been a huge success too, putting the franchise in a more positive light than it has been for some time. The franchise also never had bad reputation in the way Mass Effect or Fallout has had, it just declined a lot from its peak. I can see it getting a bunch of votes from people not having played either game. On GameFAQs that would certainly favor the older title, especially in a match where you see no point of bracket voting.

Its certainly a shame that Resident Evil 7 didnt get to break brackets somewhere, but it did serve the purpose of making the division interesting until the end. Its also a good reminder of how much more exciting the contest wouldve been if more than two games had been allowed per franchise. Resident Evil wasnt big enough for two big titles to take high seeds, so it allowed for a game to cause havoc with a low seed, even if it meant no victory. Wed have more runs similar to Mario Kart 8 this way probably. Im sure there are those that would complain we only care about very specific franchises, but I doubt its that different from elsewhere and wed still have the same top 16.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/15/20 8:41:55 AM
#39:


We had come off of two straight contests (forget Years) where Resident Evil as a whole just looked like straight-up crap. The highlight was, what, Claire getting her first contest win? How were we to know it had a resurgence?

I should note that I got the entire division completely correct, which is the main reason I was on the leaderboard for so long (fell off due to my bold pick of Dark Souls to the finals which just did not pan out).

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ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 8:44:57 AM
#40:


I had only Awakening/Bloodborne wrong.

Ironically, my favorites bracket had the whole division right.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/15/20 9:14:17 AM
#41:


My gut pick was Fire Emblem to the divisional finals but it didn't look right so I changed to RE2 > Bloodborne > FE.

I figured that Bloodborne would have gotten stronger since last contest while Fire Emblem would have nowhere to go but down (mostly off of Awakening having a lower seed this contest than it did in 2015, and the game's increasingly divisive reputation).

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ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 4:24:54 PM
#42:


Round 1 Division 2 Day 3
Fallout 4 71.72%
VVVVVV 28.28%

Prediction Percentage 88.11%

This match is hilarious because it got to fool us twice. Wed just seen Hollow Knight and Bastion look impressive and for some reason that made us fear every indie game, not just conclude that they potentially can be strong. We also saw Bloodstained look pretty great at the same time as this match. I dont think anybody expected VVVVVV to win here, since it was not expected to be close before the contest. People did expect a much lower performance though, so Fallout 4 overperformed a solid amount relative to oracle expectations.

The best part of that is that Fallout 4 went into the next round with a chance to win. At least some thought it had that. Even if that match was decided instantly, we had some excitement when the poll opened. The truth is of course that VVVVVV is just not very great, at all. Theres not much point in seeing it back another time, unfortunately. This ends up being a really bad performance.

This match also hid away any Bethesda backlash that people were expecting, because the company really hasnt got their stuff together for a while, Fallout 76 being by far the worst offender, but Fallout 4 also could not reach previous heights at all. At this point, it did not seem like such a thing existed, but itd be brought up again later in the contest.

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Safer_777
05/15/20 4:58:15 PM
#43:


Don't forget that as I wrote in my analysis too that 9 YEARS have passed since Elder Scrolls 5 and we just have a screenshot for Elder Scrolls 6! They just seem to become worse and worse each month.

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ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 7:25:24 PM
#44:


Oh I'll be talking plenty about Elder Scrolls when Skyrim comes up.

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ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 7:25:33 PM
#45:


Round 1 Division 2 Day 3
Borderlands 2 59.1
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night 40.9%

Prediction Percentage 80.77%

Another match that fueled the thought of indie games being legit. Borderlands 2 is a previous Game of the Year winner here, and while I think everyone agreed it had a good year to take such a price, this still wasnt very convincing. While Final Fantasy XV would end up fighting for the title, Borderlands 2 probably goes out of round 1 looking like the weakest GotY, just like it went into the contest as. I suppose one could make an argument for Smash 4, but it isnt in the bracket, so well never know for sure.

Borderlands 2 actually performed better than the average oracle expected of it. This shows that the indie fear was now for real. The Borderlands series is hardly what it used to be. The humor is outdated, and the gameplay isnt as fun as it used to be. We even saw a handful pick against it after the first few days of indie success. This could be a place where another indie game could do damage. The fear was in full force. It probably wouldve performed below expectations if it had been up the first day.

Borderlands 2 is still good enough, however, it was never going to drop this. It doesnt look all too great yet, but it had hope going forward, since trashing Horizon trashing Fortnite tells us nothing about its chances in another match. The Walking Dead only barely lost against its indie opponent, and I doubt anyone would consider TWD to get close to Borderlands 2. Looking back, Bloodstained looks like one of the better indies in the contest. Its exactly the kind that could have damaged brackets given better bracket placement.

At this point, the idea that indie games from the second half of the decade were legit was starting to form. Hollow Knight and Bloodstained had looked really good. Bastion won, but only barely against what was expected to extremely bad and VVVVVV was looking terrible in a match next to this. It was a good idea, that would end up having some truth to it and is probably a good rule of thumb, though it does not come without exceptions.

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ctesjbuvf
05/15/20 7:49:39 PM
#46:


Round 1 Division 2 Day 3
Horizon Zero Dawn 80.93%
Fortnite 19.07%

Prediction Percentage 56.87%

This was a very satisfying result to many. Fortnite has been huge in the end of the decade, theres no denying that. Its in no way a GameFAQs kind of type though. Its appeal is a lot more casual. Its also the exact type of game that were scared to see catch a solid rally, however. The player base is so huge and active and could easily outnumber. The chances of that happening are extremely low, Im sure, but it shows how traumatized weve been. Im sure some regulars were holding their breath for a good 20 hours of the match before feeling safe too, despite Horizon not just winning but dominating the match.

Look at the prediction percentage here. Thats really low for a match where the winning game breaks 80% Part of that is of course because Fortnite is the casual bait it is, but I guarantee its also because of rally fear to some small extend. There are less brackets these days, the average user making a bracket now is better than it used to be. In addition, stuff like GTA and WoW are actually big enough here. At least people visit the site to look at stuff about those games. Fortnite doesnt really have that going for it, so its probably not as much casual bait as those. It makes complete sense to include Fortnite in a Game of the Decade bracket, but lets expect this to last time we ever see it. Its tough to imagine it putting up a good number on anything.

While Fortnite was the sender of attention in this match, lets turn our eyes to Horizon for a bit too. It looks great here. Fortnite got most of the attention, but you deserve some credit for breaking 80% on anything, particularly a game everyone knows what is, disliked or not. It ends up getting that credit, but it was still uncertain at this point. Its round 2 match was debatable, and Horizon would go into it as the underdog according to the guru. Still, the upset felt good after this match. Horizon did a lot more than what was expected of it.

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ctesjbuvf
05/16/20 7:03:39 AM
#47:


Round 1 Division 2 Day 4
Resident Evil 2 83.13%
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair 16.87%

Prediction Percentage 92.37%

Picking Resident Evil 2 to win the whole division was a cool upset pick before and during the contest. A result such as this was exactly what it needed to make it look possible. Mass Effect 2 had performed below expectations yesterday and now Resident Evil 2 scores a huge blowout, proving its strength to us. Even so, DOOM managed to exceed expectations even more in its match today, so it didnt get to be a lock to round 3 in the eyes of everyone. What a good division this was after round 1!

Danganronpa finally got a game into a contest. It has its cult fanbase, so congratulations! Theres not much to gain doing it again, however. Even if you considered Resident Evil 2 the division favorite at this point, getting blown out this badly by anything except perhaps Breath of the Wild should mean there is no point in coming back, so in a contest setting, its probably time to big welcome to the despair instead. Seeing how many blowouts were having at this point makes me consider what having four matches a day along with four votes is doing. That obviously favors a Resident Evil against a Danganronpa, so maybe it couldve cracked the 20% it should have hoped for if it was the only match? Of course, the high number of blowouts is also because of the two games per series rule.

This was the first showing of the remakes in the contest and so far it looks like its just as strong as it could be in any setting. Though at this point, there was no telling what that meant for Persona 4 Golden or Pokemon HGSS. Resident Evil 2 is by far the most different game from its original between the three. Now had it shown up worse than it looked in the GotY polls, theyd have reason to fear for themselves.

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ctesjbuvf
05/16/20 9:50:58 AM
#48:


ROUND 1 DIVISION 2 DAY 4
DOOM 86.06%
INSIDE 13.94%

PREDICTION PERCENTAGE 94.22%

DOOM BEGAN ITS CONTEST WITH ABOUT AS GOOD A SHOWING AS IT GETS. BREAKING 86%, DOOM MADE THE SECOND HIGHEST BLOWOUT OF THE ROUND, AND THE BIGGEST AT THIS POINT OF THE CONTEST. NOT THE MATCH WAS EVER IN DOUBT BECAUSE WHAT EVEN IS INSIDE, SO LETS JUST MOVE ON SAYING HELL YEAH DOOM.

Error message from gamefaqs.gamespot.com

Your text may not be in all uppercase.

Oh, silly me. How could I not notice I had pressed caps lock? Well, since I was not allowed to post before, perhaps I can elaborate a bit on this one.

Kudos to Allen for setting up some of the matches, making round 1 a little bit more fun. DOOM looked as good as it could possibly could here. If youre breaking 86% on anything, youre likely worth something. At the very least, if you were worried what a Bethesda backlash might do, today was not the to start worrying further. Although of course, DOOM is not really what the issues have been about.

DOOM made as big a scare as it could coming into next round. Im sure that if Resident Evil 2 had faced anything just worth a little bit, we wouldve seen more people jump on the upset train. Imagine what happens if Resident Evil 2 got to face Bloodstained for instance. That wouldve been fun. DOOM was still going into round 2 as a major underdog, but theres no denying it looked great today.

However, as the contest proceeded, it became more and more clear that INSIDE is simply that weak. It ended up being the single worst game in the bracket according to the x-stats. It doesnt matter that the x-stats are favorable towards the latter half of the bracket, it still ends up there. Imagine how low it couldve become if it had been under the layers of SFF that the especially bottom half of division 3 were in. It couldve aimed at records there! Turns out not everything is worth anything just because its indie, but I dont think many of us were surprised here. Its not like people are just voting for the lesser name and INSIDE has had just about as little exposure as you can get. Im surprised it made the bracket, and I wonder if it wouldve had if not for its name being all in capital letters.

Let me just take a moment to talk about the game a little. I usually dont do this too much in these, but I know someone whos been working as a sound designer on the game and a lot of small games similar to it. He has also been making sounds for CD project red in the past. Were not close, but I always check out his stuff and he often shares some insider knowledge (pun intended). I was very happy and positively surprised when I saw this game made it to the field. Did you know that a lot of the development team behind INSIDE are Danish? Probably not because you barely know about the game, but its good! Definitely worth the few hours it takes.

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MechanicalWall
05/16/20 9:55:51 AM
#49:


Inside's a great game, personally I think it was a generic name and generic match pic combined with being matched against one of the biggest names in gaming that caused it to get blown out so hard.

Funnily enough both games came out in 2016 so that'll be fun for my years analysis.

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ctesjbuvf
05/16/20 9:58:16 AM
#50:


Yeah, DOOM is probably among the worst opponents for it.

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ctesjbuvf
05/16/20 11:26:02 AM
#51:


Round 1 Division 2 Day 4
Fire Emblem: Awakening 62.76%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution 37.24%

Prediction Percentage 76.07%

Its no good being the only advancing game in half a division to not overperform if you were hoping to get far. Thats how Fire Emblem: Awakening had it coming out of round 1. It even did slightly worse than expected of it, just to make matters worse. Fire Emblem was the slight guru favorite to make round 3 and a few even had it going further than that. The main reason for being the popular choice next round being it straight up looked better than Bloodborne back in 2015. Not my much, but still ahead of it. Also, Resident Evil 2 had a recent slim victory against Fire Emblem: Three Houses in the Game of the Year finals. It was expected that Awakening wouldnt be too far below Three Houses, as it is the older game and has had more and better received Smash exposure to upweight that its a handheld game not quite as successful. Resident Evil 2 was expected to make the division finals, so if you thought Awakening wasnt too far away from it, there was not too much room in between for Bloodborne to be. Also, when in doubt, picking the Nintendo game and or the RPG was worked out before.

Theres no denying Awakening would go into round 2 as the underdog now. Human Revolution is surely the strongest game losing the this half of the division, but even so these just arent good numbers. Weve seen the first Deus Ex a good bunch of times. It was destroyed as expected in 2009 and 2015. In 2010 it did shock us all by beating Rock Band 2 (however weird that sentence may sounds), but still lost big time to Fallout 3. It hasnt been worth much. This isnt the same Deus Ex. The reason it was the first that got into 2015 is probably because its better. This game is from 2011, so it only made it in because the first could not. Had Fire Emblem put these numbers up on the original, it might, just might, still be considered the favorite to round 2, but not like this. Wed have to see how Three Houses did, however. If Three Houses went big, then maybe this would end up not being as bad, but the writing was on the wall already.

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