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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/05/20 7:22:41 AM
#247:


Round 3 Division 2 Day 26
Resident Evil 2 50.16%
Bloodborne 49.84%

Prediction Percentage 32.58%

Today was a very hyped match, because while Resident Evil 2 was the clear favorite before the contest began, Bloodborne had showed itself capable of successfully rallying, even while being in front, and that made a good amount of people take Bloodborne instead. The match would end up being the most memorable match in the contest because it had everything. Resident Evil 2 won in the end, giving us the division final we expected, but Bloodborne sure made it seem like there was no nope at time.

Everyone was ready to cast in their votes when the match came up, but once the clock hit the matches didnt change. This technically affected four matches. The division 1 ones were running late and there was another match also being delayed, but none of those results were affected by this at all and probably ended almost the exact the same way. This one however became very controversial because of it. Everyone was looking intensely at the match in the beginning, but we quickly paid less attention as it became clear it wasnt just a small delay. After a while, people expected it to simply not start for another day. Two hours passed without the polls going up, as it broke the record Sonic vs. Samus had all the way back in 2002.

Unless the match ended up not being close at all, there was no longer any way this one would feel legit to everyone, and spoilers, it did end up being close as excitement was there down to the final updates. Its ironic how many of the times weve had poll delays, it ends it a wire to wire match. This match was one of only two of the contest to come down to the last seconds, although a third one came close too. Sonic vs. Samus was also incredibly close. Jill Valentine vs. Ryu Hayabusa was eventually reset and was very close both times. Link vs. Draven wasnt delayed but still had downtime hours and a lot of people believe it flipped the result. Mario vs. Crono was started early and wasnt ended after 24 hours. If we had the votals we used to have, this one would absolutely go down as an all time classic that wed be talking about for years to come.

It turned out the poll delay was due to a glitch caused by now having two matches a day instead of four. Its a huge shame, especially because it would hurt our already bad votals for not just this day but also seemingly days to come. Its what happens. Its a shame, but its fair. The decision to not run the matches the following day and have them run for a full 24 hours is a lot more controversial. It would have been the right thing to do, but Im sure Allen thought it was an equal disadvantage for both games. Board 8 seemed to think it would harm Resident Evil 2 the most, as it was expected to be able to build a good lead before Bloodborne inevitably rallied and began cutting. Its tough to call because Bloodborne wasnt able to put up a thread on time either. The belief that it didnt change the outcome was nave though, but Im thinking Allen hoped it wouldnt end up as close as it did. No one would have minded if this had happened one of the many days where we had a group of matches that werent exciting to follow at all. The easy way out would be to just have a day off, but I suppose Allen wanted everything else to be on schedule.

In any case, the match began surprisingly about two hours and ten minutes later than intended. Bloodborne won the board vote in big fashion, which might seem surprising considering Resident Evil 2 is better here than most places and that most of the board had it in their brackets, but its likely the delay at work. We didnt make out as many of the early votes as we usually do and the votals at the freeze were generally lower to confirm this, but the word quickly spread to everyone that stayed around.

Bloodbornes lead wasnt huge either. It was ahead in the opening minutes and kept it until the freeze, but it was never a lot, and everyone correctly expected Resident Evil 2 to run away with it from there. True enough, the lead change happened at the next update and Resident Evil 2 would slowly build a lead from there. It wasnt too easy though. While Resident Evil 2 was clearly stronger on natural strength, Bloodborne was already proving itself once more. As much as the board liked to criticize Fire Emblem this contest, Awakening no longer looked so bad. Its possible Bloodborne had some momentum going into the round, but it would have won the previous match regardless, so any bandwagon was probably not there, though it might pick it up if it won today.

Fast forward about four hours and Resident Evil 2 has expected its lead to near 400 votes. A good amount that would give it some buffer if the rallied came, but not enough for anyone to feel safe. The biggest lead of the entire match would be a lead of 390 in this time. This was deep into the night hours and Resident Evil 2 suddenly had a tough time extending its lead any further. It seemed to be geography at work. Resident Evil 2 was doing better in the now mostly sleeping North America, while Bloodborne was doing better in Europe. For a while the match stalled around a 350-vote lead for Resident Evil 2.

This is when the Bloodborne rallies started mattering. They came late because of the poll delay, but they came, and they started gaining traction now. Bloodborne cut off about 100 votes in an hour and gaining traction at the same time. Things went even faster in the next hour where Bloodborne removed 200 votes instead. With 14 hours to go, Bloodborne was only 47 votes behind and had a super powerful rally behind it. It looked over at this point.

People were trying to get similar rallies for Resident Evil 2, but it proved a lot more difficult. Not only could they not gain the same kind of traction, but it seemed like the Resident Evil forums were a lot more split on the match and seemed to like both things. The Bloodborne forums, however, were a lot more passionate about their game and it showed. Two updates later the match had the first tie of the match and the Bloodborne went up. The hour that started with Resident Evil 2 being 47 votes ahead ended with Bloodborne being 176 ahead. A fair share of people stopped paying attention. It seemed like counter-rallying was impossible and that Bloodborne would only extend its lead. We had seen Bloodborne capable of successfully rallying when ahead, so it was expected that it would only keep gaining from here and end up winning the match easily. It was reasonable at this point to think Bloodborne would keep it up, gain momentum, win the division and lose to Breath of the Wild, because there are some things a rally of this caliber can not do.

Then the match took a big swing. The Bloodborne subreddit chose to disallow rally threads and removed the successful one that was already there. At least one of the mods there took that decision and that person is the main reason Bloodborne ends up losing. If he had just kept it there a little while longer, it might have ended differently. If he didnt remove it at all, Bloodborne obviously wins no doubt. Even if they disallowed them moving forward, Mass Effect 2 vs. Bloodborne might have been a really good match, because again, no doubt Bloodborne bandwagons from here if it pulled it off. The fans might very well have found other places to rally in the meantime, because again, theyre very passionate about their game.

Those are all what-if things. What happened is that the Bloodborne rallies were removed and Resident Evil 2 was suddenly in the match accord to no doing of its own. Natural trends were in Resident Evil 2s favor and it started slowly cutting right away as you expect. From one moment to the next, people went from thinking Bloodborne was a lock to win to thinking Resident Evil 2 was a lock to win it.

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