Board 8 > The Russia Ukraine War appears to have begun

(+) Yeah! (+)

There was an interesting read on reddit how the foreign legion fighters mostly have fled or died. Citing lack of gear given to them or overall strategy.

Seems that they went expecting something like Iraq and Afghanistan but once they realized it was just sitting there waiting to be bombed or mortared they left.

War is very different if you don't have overwhelming air power.

The way I see it though, notwithstanding that, Russia has little hope of winning a conventional war at this point, militarily. They lack the manpower, equipment, and industrial production to win a long war of attrition with many countries supplying Ukraine.

HeroicCrono posted...

War is very different if you don't have overwhelming air power.

The way I see it though, notwithstanding that, Russia has little hope of winning a conventional war at this point, militarily. They lack the manpower, equipment, and industrial production to win a long war of attrition with many countries supplying Ukraine.

Once mariupol falls, this will free up units to flank and pincer in the east. It's possible they can win still.

Foreign intelligence is saying that Russia has effectively fully stalled, including in Mariupol. They are still a long way away from taking the city and it will be very bloody and difficult for the Russians if they succeed at all. Add to that the enormous climbdown in the the Russian negotiating position where now theyre saying that Ukraine can join the EU, form individual defence pacts but no NATO, and have agreed to deal with the breakaway regions separately after a ceasefire. It seems that Russia know they have nearly no hope of outright victory now.

Corrik7 posted...

There was an interesting read on reddit how the foreign legion fighters mostly have fled or died. Citing lack of gear given to them or overall strategy.

Seems that they went expecting something like Iraq and Afghanistan but once they realized it was just sitting there waiting to be bombed or mortared they left.

Are today's world leaders morons or something? Why would you expect Ukraine to be the same as Iraq or Afghanistan? It's not a politically unstable third-world country!

Apparently Putin's military advisor is suggesting firing a ballistic missile on the US. Gee I can't imagine that backfiring, it's not like the Japanese tried something similar with Pearl Harbor or anything.

what exactly constitutes russia "winning" or "being victorious"? annexing the entirety of ukraine? that's going to take an extremely long time, given how huge ukraine is.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Foreign intelligence is saying that Russia has effectively fully stalled, including in Mariupol. They are still a long way away from taking the city and it will be very bloody and difficult for the Russians if they succeed at all. Add to that the enormous climbdown in the the Russian negotiating position where now theyre saying that Ukraine can join the EU, form individual defence pacts but no NATO, and have agreed to deal with the breakaway regions separately after a ceasefire. It seems that Russia know they have nearly no hope of outright victory now.

Nobody believes Russia is actually negotiating. They have things in there Ukraine can never agree to. They are stalled everywhere except in the east which has small progress, but they are paused while shoring up supply lines and bringing reinforcements. They are pulling from the Pacific units. Mariupol isn't a stall but more of a siege. Mariupol should fall any day. When that happens if they can flank around in the easy, they could cause a breakthrough across the entire east. We will see, but Russia isn't dead in the water at all. They have underperformed badly so far though.

With respect Im going to defer to British military intelligence on this one!

Ukraine is already drafting an agreement. It is still ongoing but Russias stances have softened significantly - if Ukraine is in the EU in a few years and subject to article 42.7 thats an effective deterrent as France is a nuclear power. We will see how it goes, but if Ukraine is in the EU in five years Russia is unlikely to try again.

Also Russia withdrawing its troops from abroad is a bad sign for them. Apparently they even pulled troops from South Ossetia, and not just the Russian ones. Imagine if Georgia reclaimed that and Abkhazia. Its hard to see a positive outcome for Russia though things can always change of course.

Lightning Strikes posted...

With respect Im going to defer to British military intelligence on this one!

Ukraine is already drafting an agreement. It is still ongoing but Russias stances have softened significantly - if Ukraine is in the EU in a few years and subject to article 42.7 thats an effective deterrent as France is a nuclear power. We will see how it goes, but if Ukraine is in the EU in five years Russia is unlikely to try again.

Also Russia withdrawing its troops from abroad is a bad sign for them. Apparently they even pulled troops from South Ossetia, and not just the Russian ones. Imagine if Georgia reclaimed that and Abkhazia. Its hard to see a positive outcome for Russia though things can always change of course.

France and USA both have said Russia isn't really negotiating. They are bombing the hell out of cities, have 4 troop transports speeding towards area from the Pacific and also have Pacific forces coming by rail.

Russia has only stated that Turkey can be a guaranteer of Ukraines sovereignty. The EU allowed thing was a mistranslation. Turkey is also considered switching using the Ruble as a form of currency going forward instead of just the dollar and Euro as usual.

I think it's important to not just get your information from one source.

Russia is in bad shape, but they aren't even close to defeated. The bigger question is how the conscription cycle will work with their army with the changeover on April 1st and with them now in a month grace period for financial default on their debt that just lapsed.

I have a lot of connections to Turkey and the reason they are considering switching to the ruble is because the lira has crashed. Its economic, it is not an indicator of alignment, things are shakier than ever with Russia. They are also a NATO member as well.

Lightning Strikes posted...

I have a lot of connections to Turkey and the reason they are considering switching to the ruble is because the lira has crashed. Its economic, it is not an indicator of alignment, things are shakier than ever with Russia. They are also a NATO member as well.

Yes, they are a NATO member. And the Ruble has crashed also. So that's a weird reason.

Corrik7 posted...

France and USA both have said Russia isn't really negotiating. They are bombing the hell out of cities, have 4 troop transports speeding towards area from the Pacific and also have Pacific forces coming by rail.

Russia has only stated that Turkey can be a guaranteer of Ukraines sovereignty. The EU allowed thing was a mistranslation. Turkey is also considered switching using the Ruble as a form of currency going forward instead of just the dollar and Euro as usual.

I think it's important to not just get your information from one source.

Russia is in bad shape, but they aren't even close to defeated. The bigger question is how the conscription cycle will work with their army with the changeover on April 1st and with them now in a month grace period for financial default on their debt that just lapsed.

Ukraine has apparently already begun counterattacking in some areas. Sources are Ukrainian but I guess we'll have a pretty good idea of how that is going soon.

I don't think the Pacific units and fighters from Syria are even close to enough to win this. If they are serious about continuing the war, they would need to do a general mobilization. There doesn't seem to be the willingness in Russia to do that (and that would make it obvious to everyone there that this isn't a special operation but a full blown war).

As far as the debt goes, don't think that's a big deal if they just default. It's not like anyone's lending to them now anyways.

I think it's notable that Belarus continues to refuse to send in their army. I think Lukashenko is afraid Russia will make a deal and leave him high and dry in a war with Ukraine, which he will lose because his army is worse and his own population doesn't support him. As long as Belarus officially maintains neutrality, Ukraine is unlikely to send an army into Belarus even if there's a peace made with Russia.

Yeah the ruble has crashed so they can actually get a decent rate. Its extremely bad in Turkey at the moment, inflation is out of control because Erdogan doesnt know what hes doing.

I think that Turkey currency thing is just for trade with Russia. And it makes sense because it's hard to do trade with Russia in dollars or euros now with all the sanctions in place.

red sox 777 posted...

Ukraine has apparently already begun counterattacking in some areas. Sources are Ukrainian but I guess we'll have a pretty good idea of how that is going soon.

I don't think the Pacific units and fighters from Syria are even close to enough to win this. If they are serious about continuing the war, they would need to do a general mobilization. There doesn't seem to be the willingness in Russia to do that (and that would make it obvious to everyone there that this isn't a special operation but a full blown war).

As far as the debt goes, don't think that's a big deal if they just default. It's not like anyone's lending to them now anyways.

I think it's notable that Belarus continues to refuse to send in their army. I think Lukashenko is afraid Russia will make a deal and leave him high and dry in a war with Ukraine, which he will lose because his army is worse and his own population doesn't support him. As long as Belarus officially maintains neutrality, Ukraine is unlikely to send an army into Belarus even if there's a peace made with Russia.

Belarus' army basically refused to go in.

JFC

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1505286641451253770

If that's real that could be a turning point in international involvement.

Even ignoring the Geneva Convention, is it a good idea to arm people who have a chance to shoot you?

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1506331299572817926

My sense is that Putin is armchair generaling much like the person he appears to admire most did, and it won't work out for him any better in terms of results in the field. Worse, because Putin's actual generals are probably mediocre at war and the Prussian/German general staff were first rate.

i'll bump this again

Russia is in shambles

Mr Lasastryke posted...

i'll bump this again

why

bump

When's the big kaboom

mariupol surrendered, apparently.

Mr Lasastryke posted...

mariupol surrendered, apparently.

Source? I haven't seen this reported yet.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-tells-russia-return-prisoners-if-you-want-top-ally-back-2022-04-12/

i think the dutch news (where i got it from) worded it as mariupol surrendering but that seems like a simplification. apparently, the story is that a huge number of ukranian marines in the city surrendered. also, it seems like the source for this is russia so it should be taken with a grain of salt.

Oh, yeah that's different, even if true. But Russia is incredibly untrustworthy so I guess I'll wait for a non-Russian source to confirm this.

Mariupol is right next to the Russian border. The fact it held out this long is insane even if it did fall today.

Conversely, Russia confirmed that there was a fire on a ship and it was fully evacuated, which Ukraine says they hit with a torpedo. The same ship that was told to go fuck itself.

Wait it's the same ship?

That's absolutely incredible

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1514694045167194121?t=g7Uzo7jel65Wl-6g1Hg9zg&s=19

Officially sunk.

Imagine if the government line is the truth. Your huge warship that you sent to break Ukraine got completely demolished... by a storm that you didn't see coming, in 2022.

It's hard to believe how poorly this is going for Russia. According to Wikipedia, that warship was refit in 2020, and was supposed to keep functioning until 2040.

Peace___Frog posted...

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1514694045167194121?t=g7Uzo7jel65Wl-6g1Hg9zg&s=19

Officially sunk.

Imagine if the government line is the truth. Your huge warship that you sent to break Ukraine got completely demolished... by a storm that you didn't see coming, in 2022.

It mostly is an AA coverage warship from what I can tell.

bump

bump

So has there been any developments at all lately, are they just at a perpetual standstill?

Theres heavy fighting in that steel plant, possibly Russia wants to root the defenders by May 9 for their parade, but who knows for sure.

Russia gave up all the kyiv areas they took control of. There are a lot of civilian atrocities that happened. Mariupol can fall at any moment. Russia has repositioned to the east and has been steadily inching forward in gaining ground against Ukraine from the south and east, but nothing major so far.

yeah, i'm (obviously) following the news daily but it's mostly "[insert region of ukraine] is under attack now/is still under attack" over and over.

Sure feels weird that Ukraine is part of eurovision 2022

htaeD posted...

Sure feels weird that Ukraine is part of eurovision 2022

War has become norm. Russia has failed.

Reports emerging that Putin could be out of power before the end of this year due to failing health. If that turns out to be true I wonder how smooth his succession will be and what it means for Ukraine.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Reports emerging that Putin could be out of power before the end of this year due to failing health. If that turns out to be true I wonder how smooth his succession will be and what it means for Ukraine.

Is that the wishful thinking rumor from the Ukraine General, the unsubstantiated oligarch comment, or something else?

Corrik7 posted...

Is that the wishful thinking rumor from the Ukraine General, the unsubstantiated oligarch comment, or something else?

Maybe this? https://www.newsweek.com/putin-will-gone-2023-likely-sanatorium-predicts-ex-mi6-chief-1708926

People are claiming Russia has busted out mothballed 1960s tanks to replace losses.

Anagram posted...

People are claiming Russia has busted out mothballed 1960s tanks to replace losses.

They use the t62s or whatever for reservists. Always have.

MarkS222222222222222 posted...

Maybe this? https://www.newsweek.com/putin-will-gone-2023-likely-sanatorium-predicts-ex-mi6-chief-1708926

Yeah, I'll be ready to believe it when i actually see it, but it's a nice thought just the same.

up