Board 8 > The Russia Ukraine War appears to have begun

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1535715868520349697

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1535617894045868033

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Do I have to worry about Russia spilling over into the Balkans next or does Russia's difficulties here mean that they'd be hard-pressed to move on?

The balkans are all either in NATO or encircled by NATO countries. Starting anything would mean nuclear war and theyre thankfully not that stupid.

The places that should be worried are Moldova and Georgia. Though given that Russia were pulling troops out of those into Ukraine the current situation has bought them maybe years of time.

Thanks.

I figured it's at least appropriate to bring up here, but a lot of YouTube commenters act like coverage of the war makes Ukraine out to be completely winning. I haven't remotely gotten that vibe and now I feel stupid for not realizing how they'll do ANYTHING to harp on "mainstream" media. Similar deal with other commenters making the press out to be in Biden's hip pocket even though they're perfectly capable of criticizing them and have done so for every President - the only thing I can think of was a disconnect between Trump providing them with so much ammo while simultaneously having a cult willing to defend his every turn.

LMS, for the umpteenth time, you can't take things people on YouTube (or other media, really) say at face value without considering their bias or selective reporting.

That's fair, I just felt it was no harm to bring it up. More just astonished even though I probably shouldn't be.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I figured it's at least appropriate to bring up here, but a lot of YouTube commenters

Whoa whoa, you read the youtube comments? There's your biggest mistake. This is why we've had a rule for many years now to never read youtube comments. Especially if you take everything seriously.

I dunno, at least 60% of the comments I read are pretty reasonable. Admittedly in those cases I was morbidly curious.

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Sounds like they're still at it

Looks like Russia is gonna lose.

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Mr_Lasastryke posted...

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Why?

because the war is still going on and it's particularly relevant for me, living in europe?

I mean you can make a new topic if it purges and something noteworthy happens

i'm not positive nothing noteworthy has happened lately. still need to catch up with the latest news regarding the war.

anyway, this topic is going to hit 500 pretty soon anyway. i see no harm in keeping it alive.

I support you bumping the topic, Lasa. I know it takes up a lot of bandwidth on the board, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.

Lol

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Whether noteworthy stuff is happening or not the conversation here is clearly dead

What a bizarre hill to die on. Where have you been with the other thousand bumped topics over the years?

Samurai7 is a Russian troll

Russia looks like they are about to fall apart.

For those not keeping up. Russia tried to consolidate gains in Dontesk and Kherson oblasts and hold referendums on joining Russia. Notably leaving out Luhansk for now. However, Ukraine has began a counteroffensive that seems to have yielded gains not only in Kherson their main theatre of attack but also somewhat in Dontesk.

The referendums are on hold. Russia's Air superiority has never materialized and Crimea has been attacked via missile a lot. Snake Island has been abandoned by Russia and their Black Sea Fleet has had to pull back.

Russia is losing ground on Kherson and is across a River in which all bridges are being bombarded daily by Ukraine as they advance. Goal being ofc to cut them off across the river and get a large surrender or to abandon their military equipment while fleeing the region.

Some sources dispute how effective the counter offensive have been, but all acknowledge it has had gains.

Some controversy regarding a nuclear power plant in Zaphorvia and Russia has cut off all gas to Europe now.

I wonder at what point Russia goes back to the negotiating table. Given that Ukraine has a very hard red line on no territory concessions it would basically be an admission of defeat.

Yes. Two posts weeks apart is dying on a hill

Thank you for updating, Corrik. I appreciate that this topic has been kept alive as to both remind us that the conflict is ongoing and hasn't ended, and to exist as a place for me to see updates for whenever they arise.

LightningStrikes posted...

I wonder at what point Russia goes back to the negotiating table. Given that Ukraine has a very hard red line on no territory concessions it would basically be an admission of defeat.

Ukraine now will not negotiate unless all lands are given back, including Crimea. There is basically no real room to negotiate anymore. Unless Russia can exert pressure reliably somewhere, I am not sure they have anywhere they can negotiate from. Would they allow Russia to toss some tactical nukes at Kyiv in order to force a negotiation and not end the war in a complete loss? I don't think even that at this point. Russia needs to either fully mobilize (which it probably can't at this point) or there probably isn't much left they can do. Russia wasn't prepared to fight entire NATO stockpiles.

It's up to Russia to come up with some way to spin defeat as victory.

Also, it turns out that full mobilization is much easier if the USA is sending you vast quantities of material as in WWII. Russia doesn't have the equipment, munitions, etc. for a mass mobilization at this point.

red_sox_777 posted...

Also, it turns out that full mobilization is much easier if the USA is sending you vast quantities of material as in WWII. Russia doesn't have the equipment, munitions, etc. for a mass mobilization at this point.

You have the ability to seize means of production as needed to get what you need. The problem is the populace in a country that is about to get decimated by sanctions.

Corrik7 posted...

You have the ability to seize means of production as needed to get what you need. The problem is the populace in a country that is about to get decimated by sanctions.

They don't really have the means of production on that scale. That's the result of 30 years of lack of significant investment in really anything other than oil and gas.

I would prefer a second topic be made about this when it 500s despite Samurai7's misgivings. I don't have the attention span to check the news every day on it these days but it's nice to have occasional updates from people more invested in it.

Yeah this topic is how I keep up with it

The most curious thing is that like a few months before Russia launched their attack on Ukraine. Poland did war games to see how Poland would do against a Russian invasion. They determined in their war games they would likely have their entire air force and most of its armed forces completely obliterated and Warsaw taken in 5 days.

Does anyone know how they war game this scenario?

Lopen posted...

I would prefer a second topic be made about this when it 500s despite Samurai7's misgivings. I don't have the attention span to check the news every day on it these days but it's nice to have occasional updates from people more invested in it.

Agree with this. I don't check the news every day, but even still when I do check it's not always mentioned. Don't think I've posted in this topic before but it's one thing I use to keep track of what's going on.

Basically they make set pieces while a DM sets the scenario and they roll dice based on strength of units and such. They basically play freaking DandD. lol (basically)

Corrik7 posted...

The most curious thing is that like a few months before Russia launched their attack on Ukraine. Poland did war games to see how Poland would do against a Russian invasion. They determined in their war games they would likely have their entire air force and most of its armed forces completely obliterated and Warsaw taken in 5 days.

Does anyone know how they war game this scenario?

Sounds like they grossly overestimated the strength of the Russian military. But I mean, if you are going to err, it's better to err on the side of caution, right?

Apparently Ukraine is literally catfishing Russian soldiers for information and it's working.

https://www.newsweek.com/hackers-honeytrap-russian-troops-sharing-location-base-bombed-report-1740070

The fact that there's actually conversion here now is great. My 'misgivings' were simply me being disappointed that when I saw a new post there was never actually new conversation.

I had like 300 posts talking to myself and people telling me to go outside. Don't mind me if I cooled down.