LogFAQs > #963526789

Lightning Strikes posted...

With respect Im going to defer to British military intelligence on this one!

Ukraine is already drafting an agreement. It is still ongoing but Russias stances have softened significantly - if Ukraine is in the EU in a few years and subject to article 42.7 thats an effective deterrent as France is a nuclear power. We will see how it goes, but if Ukraine is in the EU in five years Russia is unlikely to try again.

Also Russia withdrawing its troops from abroad is a bad sign for them. Apparently they even pulled troops from South Ossetia, and not just the Russian ones. Imagine if Georgia reclaimed that and Abkhazia. Its hard to see a positive outcome for Russia though things can always change of course.

France and USA both have said Russia isn't really negotiating. They are bombing the hell out of cities, have 4 troop transports speeding towards area from the Pacific and also have Pacific forces coming by rail.

Russia has only stated that Turkey can be a guaranteer of Ukraines sovereignty. The EU allowed thing was a mistranslation. Turkey is also considered switching using the Ruble as a form of currency going forward instead of just the dollar and Euro as usual.

I think it's important to not just get your information from one source.

Russia is in bad shape, but they aren't even close to defeated. The bigger question is how the conscription cycle will work with their army with the changeover on April 1st and with them now in a month grace period for financial default on their debt that just lapsed.