Board 8 > The Russia Ukraine War appears to have begun

(+) Yeah! (+)

Man this topic is not healthy for my state of mind

Why are people acting like 2022 is the first time Russia has threatened the world with nukes

They are removing all diplomats from Canada and likely most other NATO countries. Canada just refused all oil exports from Russia.

FFDragon posted...

re: nuking everything

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498023555975450626

Why should the world exist without Russia? That wouldn't be fair.

I would take almost everything you read right now, from anywhere (but especially Twitter), with a grain of salt. You have to assume there is a lot of propaganda both ways. No one in a situation like this is going to say "oh fuck its going so shitty" for obvious reasons.

I think its safe to say by now that this is going much worse than Russia thought it would. And I still think Ukraine is likely to fall at some point just due to superior numbers. But beyond that details are murky and basically everything you want to try and confirm from multiple places if it is at all possible.

Morale and supplies are a thing. If Ukraine keeps holding long enough Russia might give up. You've got reports of Russian tanks running out of gas and yeah it might be a lie but it might not be

They actually said Ukraine running out of gas and ammunition soon is a possibility. So, Russia might start rolling up Ukraine soon. If they take Kharkiv and meet up with their southern army, they completely encircle Ukraine eastern troops and let the Eastern Russian army break out of Donbass. So, let's see what happens. Ukraine is by no means in great shape, but it is not capitulating either.

I am not sure about Ukraine's strategy of defending everything and not retreating anywhere, but I feel that in the long run (months), if the major population centers and supply routes hold up, Ukraine will eventually have a material and numbers advantage due to what is effectively an endless stream of supply from the West and a population that is willing to fight. Hard to see Russia mobilizing a lot of troops right now when the war is unpopular and they are broke.

https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1498598378766475267?s=21

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/gallery/ukraine-girl-killed/index.html

Graphic image warning if you're bothered by this sort of thing

What the heck did Ukraine do to deserve this?

LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1498598378766475267?s=21

Hopefully that means the Russians are running out of troops to throw into this.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

What the heck did Ukraine do to deserve this?

Exist, pretty much.

putin was terrified that russia might accidently get crushed by zelenskyy's massive balls if he rolled over at night

Vladimir Putin's Black Belt Revoked by International Taekwondo Organization

red sox 777 posted...

Hopefully that means the Russians are running out of troops to throw into this.

The running theory is that the initial troops were all conscripts older tech mercenaries and such. They didn't wanna lose good stuff on the attack. But, now there realize they have to use the more experienced and higher tech stuff

FFDragon posted...

putin was terrified that russia might accidently get crushed by zelenskyy's massive balls if he rolled over at night

You didnt have to post this cringe

Corrik7 posted...

The running theory is that the initial troops were all conscripts older tech mercenaries and such. They didn't wanna lose good stuff on the attack. But, now there realize they have to use the more experienced and higher tech stuff

That theory only makes sense if they were expecting to lose with the initial attack no matter what. If they thought they could win with the initial attack with their better troops but not with the weaker ones they would use the stronger ones. If they thought they would win either way...... they would still use the stronger troops to achieve victory faster and with fewer casualties/repercussions from the West. If they thought they lose either way, they would use the weaker ones.

I think probably the reality is: Russia's military budget is about 6% of the US. Probably the majority of that budget goes to corruption and a high fraction of what's left goes to developing advanced hypersonic missiles and the kind of tech which would only get used in an actual WWIII. Moreover, morale is low because the soldiers don't believe in the cause and because Russia historically has never shown quality in a war, instead relying on quantity and geography to win.

They don't actually have a lot of elite troops which is why they are now resorting to attacking civilians. It's what Hitler did when he realized he didn't have the air/naval supremacy to actually invade Britain.

red sox 777 posted...

That theory only makes sense if they were expecting to lose with the initial attack no matter what.

Negative. The theory works if they expected some losses on the way to their victory.

Their budget and money is a case in point to WHY they wouldn't want to possibly take a loss on their crucial equipment and such and used expendable equipment just in case.

Corrik7 posted...

Negative. The theory works if they expected some losses on the way to their victory.

It's poor theory. You need to decisively destroy the enemy as quickly as possible for a regime of fear to work. Pissing off the world and appearing weak while doing so seems like a very bad strategy.

Lopen posted...

It's poor theory. You need to decisively destroy the enemy as quickly as possible for a regime of fear to work. Pissing off the world and appearing weak while doing so seems like a very bad strategy.

Most of the information suggests this is correct. Fodder goes in first, expect to succeed, but if not, the enemy is weakened, their ammunition and supplies lower for when you send in your regular troops. A lot of the Russians soldiers that initially went in were Russians from Eastern Ukraine itself.

Corrik7 posted...

Most of the information suggests this is correct. Fodder goes in first, expect to succeed, but if not, the enemy is weakened, their ammunition and supplies lower for when you send in your regular troops. A lot of the Russians soldiers that initially went in were Russians from Eastern Ukraine itself.

That is seriously bad generalship if true. If you can achieve a knockout blow, you do it. If you can't achieve a knockout blow, then you don't try and instead you just start with a siege strategy like they're doing now.

I think it depends on the intent from Russia. If they wanted to annex Ukraine then a decisive and quick victory is required, if they wanted a regime change or for them to sign a "will not join NATO/EU agreement" then not using their strongest weapons/troops could suffice.

charmander6000 posted...

I think it depends on the intent from Russia. If they wanted to annex Ukraine then a decisive and quick victory is required, if they wanted a regime change or for them to sign a "will not join NATO/EU agreement" then not using their strongest weapons/troops could suffice.

They want the coast line from Russia to transistria. This give them all their major reserves besides the western part, eliminated ukraine from eating people out of their energy dependency, landlocks ukraine, and gives them major ports and a connection to Moldovas transistria. The major goals of Russia are to accomplish this and have a puppet government in Ukraine that will not kneel to the West.

Remember how Putin claimed "denazification" was one of the goals of this?

Apparently they bombed a Holocaust memorial.

kevwaffles posted...

Remember how Putin claimed "denazification" was one of the goals of this?

Apparently they bombed a Holocaust memorial.

Their ambassador in Japan just made a statement that this is the second time Japan has joined to support NAZIs with Hitler and now Ukraine. Lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE

Western sources are saying they think Russian and Ukrainian military casualties are about equal so far. So Russia has no force advantage here. It's becoming apparent that this is a very hard war for Russia to win without bringing in (a lot) more troops. <200k is about the same size as the Ukrainian army (prewar) and is not enough to take and hold a country of this size without popular local acceptance. While the Russians are making advances in the South, they are probably going to hit logistical constraints fairly soon, and those constraints get compounded as they get further into Ukraine and as they need to devote more troops to holding conquered areas.

Urban fighting is known for creating extraordinary casualties - Stalingrad for example generated 800k in casualties for the Germans. I think the Russian command in the North realize this and have been very hesitant about making any attempts to actually take Kiev or Kharkiv in days. Instead, they are resorting to missle strikes against civilians, paratrooper attacks on hospitals, etc.

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1499257279690035200?s=20&t=PQhtaxInJ1Uw_1KW0lle4g

Apparently the Russian economy is being totaled by sanctions.

Considering the amount of sanctions, any country would

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/london-listed-russian-stocks-erase-570-billion-in-two-weeks-1.1731296

98% decreases in market cap, it's insane.

neonreaper posted...

never trust anything that says Sweden is joining NATO

https://apnews.com/article/finland-sweden-nato-membership-34ef217e563ac9ea080c495ce6ffdb88

Im starting to think Ukraine might actually win this war. Not win a occupation, but just straight up win.

The combination of allies supplying weapons and ukraines willing to fight is huge. If Ukraine can keep reinforcing from Poland then there is no way Lviv is going to fall, and I think Ukraine could use Lviv as a staging point to keep fighting back.

I dont see a way where Ukraine ever surrenders and the longer this goes on the more Russia cant sustain this. Its the entire worlds supplies vs Russias supplies over time.

Is China joining Russia in this a possibility, I havent really been following much.

masterplum posted...

Im starting to think Ukraine might actually win this war. Not win a occupation, but just straight up win.

The combination of allies supplying weapons and ukraines willing to fight is huge. If Ukraine can keep reinforcing from Poland then there is no way Lviv is going to fall, and I think Ukraine could use Lviv as a staging point to keep fighting back.

I dont see a way where Ukraine ever surrenders and the longer this goes on the more Russia cant sustain this. Its the entire worlds supplies vs Russias supplies over time.

Been thinking the same thing today actually. Russia's resources aren't really strong enough to keep this thing going indefinitely to the point where the manpower advantage would actually matter. Eventually attrition gets to them harder because they're 1. Offense is tougher than defense. 2. They're not getting constantly supply pumped to them and are getting financially crippled.

I'm not saying Ukraine would outright rout Russia but they could run them ragged on resources to the point where it becomes implausible for Russia to actually take any points of conflict without like, occupying a city/setting up an elaborate camp and regrouping. And with all the sanctions and stuff Russia can't afford to play the long game like that. They're burning billions on lost equipment every day out there-- the US or China could do that, but Russia doesn't have the money for it.

Moonroof posted...

Is China joining Russia in this a possibility, I havent really been following much.

China isn't as stupid as Russia. I really doubt they join a losing side

Moonroof posted...

Is China joining Russia in this a possibility, I havent really been following much.

They've started distancing themselves from Russia. Mostly out of fear there'll be second-hand sanctions if they don't.

Lopen posted...

Been thinking the same thing today actually. Russia's resources aren't really strong enough to keep this thing going indefinitely to the point where the manpower advantage would actually matter. Eventually attrition gets to them harder because they're 1. Offense is tougher than defense. 2. They're not getting constantly supply pumped to them and are getting financially crippled.

I'm not saying Ukraine would outright rout Russia but they could run them ragged on resources to the point where it becomes implausible for Russia to actually take any points of conflict without like, occupying a city/setting up an elaborate camp and regrouping. And with all the sanctions and stuff Russia can't afford to play the long game like that. They're burning billions on lost equipment every day out there-- the US or China could do that, but Russia doesn't have the money for it.

They just pushed Russia back to the border from kharkiv. So it's possible.

Yeah, I doubt China will be involved other than continuing trade with Russia. I know a lot of people like to group them together, but they aren't the best of friends and mostly tolerate each other when it is advantagous to them. Similar to United States and Turkey.

As for Russia's chances in this war, I think their best chance has passed. Even if they capture Kyiv and attempt to install a new government (which is looking less likely by the day) the army/people seems intent to fight back to the point where once Russia leaves Ukraine the new government will topple.

Russia's best bet is to negotiate some kind of "don't join NATO" and no NATO troops in Ukraine clauses. Maybe try to keep Luhansk and Donetsk, independent to keep a buffer...

charmander6000 posted...

As for Russia's chances in this war, I think their best chance has passed. Even if they capture Kyiv and attempt to install a new government (which is looking less likely by the day) the army/people seems intent to fight back to the point where once Russia leaves Ukraine the new government will topple.

Russia's best bet is to negotiate some kind of "don't join NATO" and no NATO troops in Ukraine clauses. Maybe try to keep Luhansk and Donetsk, independent to keep a buffer...

Like how they negotiated not invading in exchange for nukes in the 90s huh

Russia can go fuck itself.

Yes, the longer this goes on the more Ukraine will have a material and manpower advantage. Russia hasn't mobilized additional troops because of some combination of lacking the resources and Putin being worried about the Russian people figuring out they are losing the war. Ukraine is running a general mobilization and reportedly has already increased their army size almost 2x.

Heh Russia losing an offensive war because of attrition.

not sure if there's any classical music fans in here but it's wild to me that valery gergiev took russia's side (he seemed like an ok guy to me in documentaries i've seen).

rip his career in the western world lol

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500812687009267712?s=20&t=t3k5TB943VEwwxcUuCstcQ

I know people like to start negotiations with everything they want, but I don't think Russia is in a position to make such strong demands.

As I said before it'll probably end with Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO (and mostly because it's clear NATO isn't going to agree with Ukraine joining them for the foreseeable future).

charmander6000 posted...

I know people like to start negotiations with everything they want, but I don't think Russia is in a position to make such strong demands.

As I said before it'll probably end with Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO (and mostly because it's clear NATO isn't going to agree with Ukraine joining them for the foreseeable future).

It's not as strong as it was like a week ago.

i'll give this a bump