LogFAQs > #963527777

Corrik7 posted...

France and USA both have said Russia isn't really negotiating. They are bombing the hell out of cities, have 4 troop transports speeding towards area from the Pacific and also have Pacific forces coming by rail.

Russia has only stated that Turkey can be a guaranteer of Ukraines sovereignty. The EU allowed thing was a mistranslation. Turkey is also considered switching using the Ruble as a form of currency going forward instead of just the dollar and Euro as usual.

I think it's important to not just get your information from one source.

Russia is in bad shape, but they aren't even close to defeated. The bigger question is how the conscription cycle will work with their army with the changeover on April 1st and with them now in a month grace period for financial default on their debt that just lapsed.

Ukraine has apparently already begun counterattacking in some areas. Sources are Ukrainian but I guess we'll have a pretty good idea of how that is going soon.

I don't think the Pacific units and fighters from Syria are even close to enough to win this. If they are serious about continuing the war, they would need to do a general mobilization. There doesn't seem to be the willingness in Russia to do that (and that would make it obvious to everyone there that this isn't a special operation but a full blown war).

As far as the debt goes, don't think that's a big deal if they just default. It's not like anyone's lending to them now anyways.

I think it's notable that Belarus continues to refuse to send in their army. I think Lukashenko is afraid Russia will make a deal and leave him high and dry in a war with Ukraine, which he will lose because his army is worse and his own population doesn't support him. As long as Belarus officially maintains neutrality, Ukraine is unlikely to send an army into Belarus even if there's a peace made with Russia.