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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 10:23:47 PM
#229
It doesn't to me. If I start to suspect the guy who presented an argument that convinced me another guy I thought was town may be scummy, reevaluating and/or going back to look at other takes on the suspect seems natural.

It's just the less direct version of what we do when someone flips as confirmed town or scum.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 10:16:07 PM
#226
turbopuns3 posted...
If you suspect someone and then they make a good argument about someone else it can cause you to doubt your read of them.


Here's the problem

It was backwards from this

Tom was "convinced" by Pez and gradually became less trusting of him. It wasn't he was railing against Pez and then softened after the argument made sense.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 10:13:54 PM
#223
Tom Bombadil posted...
Pez Chris red ulti Lea sbell Ben hb


Many of these suspicions were not present topic 4 when Pez made the argument. In fact you conveniently left us a list just after at topic 5 start where Pez and Ulti are the only ones you give scum lean to. Course hb had a vote and you voted Lea, so maybe you could argue 4 at that time, but very weird.

Especially since my argument against red as "town imo" did not register whatsoever.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 10:07:54 PM
#218
Say hi to red on scumboard for me
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 10:06:48 PM
#215
It's not about 100% confidence as much as you'd expressed suspicion in like 3 players period. To follow the read of one of those 3 that goes against one you had in the town pile is very strange.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 10:04:54 PM
#214
Tom Bombadil posted...
Was there a pint where you weren't pressing me it's been at least all of d2 and I think a chunk of d1 as well


We mostly just bantered d1. Think I argued against the idea of red doing anything once.

I didn't note the Pez/red contradiction until today on a reread and pressing you about Pez and red.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 10:02:57 PM
#210
Ding ding dinging that is not logical town play. If you suspect someone and you only have like 3 suspects, listening to their arguments as one of your only leads of suspicion simply does not make sense.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 9:59:42 PM
#204
When we've been over this, yes. I'm talking about before I pressed you.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 9:56:13 PM
#199
You know it so well but you've only detailed these things when I've pointed out your thinking being contradictory. I don't recall you ever suggesting Pez+red scumteam as your trust in Pez decreased simultaneously with red's. It seems like a natural thing to bring up, but they were treated as independent variables.

To me it signals that you're faking absorbing reasoning and just trying to adjust suspicions to avoid suspicion and avoid being forced into lynching scummates.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 9:46:14 PM
#189
It is possible, but is it likely?

Scum can make good town arguments, but usually it would be to clear town. Unless you have a pattern of behavior where they often bus teammates, you would inherently distrust a scum member's argument on who is scum. It's only natural.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 9:42:19 PM
#185
You never even directly argued that he often busses scummates, which is the weird thing. That is what you're implying with that, but you've beat around the bush with it.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 9:39:42 PM
#182
On their own scummate? I don't believe you.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 9:37:44 PM
#179
Tom's progression of suspicions went like this

- Red is town for doing stuff (he wasn't, ever)
- Red is not surefire town because Pez put a convincing argument against him
- But oh yeah Pez is scum because ???
- But I'm still convinced by his argument on red. No other arguments on red have been good.

It just doesn't seem natural to me. It feels like Tom simultaneously tries to distance himself from red who is garnering suspicion while making an escape valve from voting red if the lynch gains traction and being caught in that contradiction. It's not how I'd expect town to think. You can't legitimately suspect someone and simultaneously be swayed by their arguments.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 9:19:27 PM
#163
I have lynching red as +EV as he is scum and leaving him alive causes damage while it resolves itself. For example if our protection is actually convinced by his claim he can draw them allowing scum to shoot priority targets. He also could be a scum power role of some sort.

Also again the possibility of him pulling a mislynch gambit is there.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 9:15:26 PM
#161
It can still happen. I'm encouraged he still has 3 (4) votes
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 9:09:03 PM
#158
You know

For a 4 wagon day I don't actually hate that.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 9:04:50 PM
#155
I mean I dunno you want me to research someone.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 8:48:47 PM
#151
Bell you ever gonna try to actually push a lynch dude
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 8:12:46 PM
#140
##Unvote
##Vote: Tom


I want to see more from Tom.

Wait actually Tom posts a lot I just think he's scum. In before he claims town tracker who was roleblocked and OH NO WE CAN'T
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 8:07:31 PM
#137
You don't have to defend me Chris no one is going to lynch me it's just Ulti yelling like a town drunk again and puns really liking tertiary colors (orange is part red that's the real reason I have misgivings about it)
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 8:01:52 PM
#135
If you guys are really too skittish to lynch the clearly fake watcher claim I'm okay with lynching Tom as red being scum makes him look really bad and he's basically scum confirmed to me. Don't really like any other lynch today right now.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 7:55:14 PM
#128
Zzzzzz
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 7:53:11 PM
#126
Cam which player in particular did you mean when you called Ulti town. Did you mean dowolf?
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 7:30:21 PM
#110
Would it help if I said I actually like the color orange
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 7:26:22 PM
#106
Camarija posted...
I like the color orange

You don't

You and I fundamentally disagree, but my like of orange isn't wrong

It is what it is

Do you understand?


If I understand you're saying your scum hunting technique is the equivalent of saying Lopen disliking the color orange is a scumslip?
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 7:06:29 PM
#99
I meant "the town" as in the playerbase at laege not any specific who. I wasn't tracking specific scare reactions much but his reception did not come off as terribly positive to me,
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 6:57:10 PM
#94
Scare was one of the people with lynch trains towards end of day it dissipated before topic 7 begin but (1) Scare: (5tar), (puns), (Lea), dowolf existed.

He had very few people defending him. He also was a member of the initial dowolf chaos wagon which would possibly have subjected him to scrutiny today.

Basically eaed put him in the hole and there's very little reason scum would prioritize killing him I think. At least not night 1.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 6:45:42 PM
#90
I'm inclined to think some of town is just capable of critical thinking in the face in "OH NO NOT THE POWER ROLE" and realizes that claim is clearly nonsense
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 6:06:34 PM
#78
Scare was only the likely scum kill in that we can't account for the source. He seems like a poor scum kill if you paid attention to his reception from town yesterday.

If you think in terms of results scare makes sense as the scum kill. If you think in terms of where night actions are likely going he does not.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 6:01:32 PM
#71
You don't confirm them. Most people who aren't being wacky Corrik would, which basically makes them impossible to lynch for scum
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 5:58:28 PM
#69
Scare does not seem like a likely scum kill by any stretch. You had at minimum dowolf and Chris as basically town confirmed and you had a lot of people suspecting Scare.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 5:52:49 PM
#61
Corrik7 posted...
Chances of a doctor not on Chris last night are probably less than 3% unless the doctor is zany.


So where did the scum kill go then? Do you actually think they killed Scare?
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Topic^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Shapeshifter - Nominations
Lopen
06/22/19 5:51:56 PM
#163
Morrigan (Dragon Age)
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TopicBest Final Fantasy 8 Playable character Day 3
Lopen
06/22/19 5:41:41 PM
#7
LeonhartFour posted...
some would say she's been there all along


get out
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 5:31:44 PM
#46
Scum didn't kill him because doc was still at large obv
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 5:28:29 PM
#43
That's the implication he's feeding us

The problem is that implies that we had one kill last night, on scare, who the scum would be ridiculous to kill, while the doc was protecting Chris. It's too perfect a story. Gives us no information and seeds him as a power role to force a mislynch later.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 5:17:13 PM
#38
It resolves itself when he forces a mislynch later, yes.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 5:16:00 PM
#35
I'm fine with it. Belief in him as a scanner positions him to force a mislynch later when he just happens to watch someone who made a kill. Really strong scum claim to cut losses. Too conveniently strong. I'd be more inclined to believe vanilla.

Feel like watcher is a rare role and hard to balance, too, so it's just not seen very often.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 5:09:56 PM
#32
Not buying it. No way is there only one kill on scare with Chris being watched and targeted by just one person.
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Topic^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Shapeshifter - Nominations
Lopen
06/22/19 4:04:49 PM
#129
WOW.
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Topic^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Shapeshifter - Nominations
Lopen
06/22/19 4:04:04 PM
#126
I've heard it both ways.
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Topic^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Shapeshifter - Nominations
Lopen
06/22/19 4:02:11 PM
#124
Finn Balor like cappy is possession in that he's being possessed by The Demon King
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 3:55:26 PM
#13
Lolo I would like an answer to that question as soon as you've done enough research on the game to feel comfortable giving it
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TopicBest Final Fantasy 8 Playable character Day 3
Lopen
06/22/19 3:54:08 PM
#4
Why wasn't ultimecia added day 3 tho
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 9: The Chapters are not Named
Lopen
06/22/19 3:04:27 PM
#8
I dunno. Could you give me a few you'd vote over red currently and a few you'd vote red over currently? It's a fancy way to say top X scum and town if you prefer. Also give me an idea of whether there are more in the "vote over Red" list than the "vote Red over" list
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 8: Dedicated to Delseban Part II: The Musical
Lopen
06/22/19 2:40:50 PM
#446
Lolo you say you won't stand in the way but... is it more of a "he doesn't need more pressure" or a "I don't suspect him enough to vote him" thing.

If it came down to a multiple train lynch end of day, how many other players would you choose to lynch over red? Are there players who you'd lynch red over in a two train scenario?
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 8: Dedicated to Delseban Part II: The Musical
Lopen
06/22/19 2:20:20 PM
#435
Yeah I think 8 is the sweet spot to have him at.

Especially with several people saying their vote is on him in spirit, claiming is really his only way out of this one.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 8: Dedicated to Delseban Part II: The Musical
Lopen
06/22/19 2:14:02 PM
#426
If he's town he actually claims once it's at 8 or 9. His ego can really only get him so far in that being a plausible defense.

If he's scum he waits until t minus 30 minutes and then claims either way, but with more votes pre-stocked on him trying to create chaos is less likely to pay off for him.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 8: Dedicated to Delseban Part II: The Musical
Lopen
06/22/19 2:08:41 PM
#423
If everyone hops on the day stagnates until red claims, but it also gives us more evidence that red is scum because that's totally the +EV scum move to sit on a 7 vote lynch until 1 hour left, claim and hope a confusion lynch bails him out

But the more votes he accrues the less likely that people will dissipate through natural causes and the more pro-town it is to just get the claim out of the way. So it's a stronger scum read if we have more votes.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 8: Dedicated to Delseban Part II: The Musical
Lopen
06/22/19 1:43:07 PM
#414
He's only at 7, right? 8 is still two away from lynch.
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