Board 8 > The Russia Ukraine War appears to have begun

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1496922915954216962?s=20&t=XfaTcBzz1CkJOAUHm0WTJw

Edit
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1496927712312803329?s=20&t=XueBJA9pYwzsBlOdpPblIw

I try my best to keep my head away from geopolitical power struggles and the threat of nuclear war, but because it's basically my greatest fear (WW3 in general) my mind is just so preoccupied with all of this. I understand that in 2014 the US participated in a coup over an elected leader, threw out the guy who wanted to have negotiations with Russia, and then hand picked the next regime. Now the regime is unpopular and Russia is doing an imperialism of their own. I understand that Putin said he doesn't want to usurp the country, but he also said it was a light operation in Eastern Ukraine and now they're headed for Kiev, so who really knows what he's aiming for. I don't trust either side to actually work toward a peaceful resolution here, but let's hope this doesn't get too much worse.

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1496928905357316103

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496936266671304707?s=20&t=bBciagIPEdgBkEVFytXGvw

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1496936638723006466?s=20&t=f5mqKOy46jQhpjJFLr_avA

https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1496934049570598916?s=20&t=ojKkZkZWevmk2QWz3DqJaw

PrinceReva posted...

. I understand that Putin said he doesn't want to usurp the country, but he also said it was a light operation in Eastern Ukraine and now they're headed for Kiev, so who really knows what he's aiming for.

Worst case scenario for him is he creates a nation that can be nothing more than a puppet for Russia if they dont just annex it completely

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1496938348552003584?s=20&t=fvYeZmif5wmfncIbKcBU1Q

PrinceReva posted...

I understand that in 2014 the US participated in a coup over an elected leader, threw out the guy who wanted to have negotiations with Russia, and then hand picked the next regime. Now the regime is unpopular and Russia is doing an imperialism of their own.

To be clear: although there was a coup in 2014, since there have been two free and fair elections, and in the last one the government changed. It is not the same regime despite what some misinformation and propaganda says - Ukraine is very much a democracy.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1496943745333268497?s=20&t=6-5ljaeqosJ4aDCb3hIKaQ

I get the sense that once the smoke clears and the Ukraine has surrendered, the actual death toll will be less than 500, and it will turn out that most of these "Ukraine has wiped out an entire Russian division!" were completely fabricated

Also, you have to love when news reports come out about "Kremlin's official website was hacked/DDoSed" as if that even matters.

Russia struggling with a quick occupation is good news, not because they aren't going to take Ukraine, but the longer it takes them the easier it is to rally the civilian population against the occupation which makes a quick puppet government harder

Once the bombs start falling, i think a large portion of the population stop caring about who their government is. You'll have a small group of people that will try to mount a resistance, but without the religious fervor like you saw in Afghanistan, it's a hard sell for average people to risk their lives

I don't know anything about Ukraine. How would we expect the everyday life of an average citizen change under Russian control?

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1496953843845849098?s=20&t=KoNaKomPUjSUxFgnkUnmeg

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

I get the sense that once the smoke clears and the Ukraine has surrendered, the actual death toll will be less than 500, and it will turn out that most of these "Ukraine has wiped out an entire Russian division!" were completely fabricated

I think the death toll will be worse than that, but I agree with the later. Like, I hope to be wrong but that has the feels of Baghdad Bob coming out to tell everyone about how bad the US is doing while things are blowing up in the background.

Russia outspends Ukraine 10 to 1on the military. I'd be shocked if there was any real resistance.

MarkS222222222222222 posted...

I don't know anything about Ukraine. How would we expect the everyday life of an average citizen change under Russian control?

Russia won't take over the entire country. I suspect the surrender terms will be to cede Luhansk/Donetsk and formally recognize Crimea as part of Russia. Putin doesn't want the headache of trying to occupy a huge country like that, and having those 3 areas lets him pretend to be a Tzar while also pushing his narrative of trying to support the Russian separatists in those areas.

MarkS222222222222222 posted...

I don't know anything about Ukraine. How would we expect the everyday life of an average citizen change under Russian control?

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1496959477404389380

Changing a bit now.

So I just realized that many casualties of past war tend to be from disease, and there's already a raging pandemic going on...

I always knew the Russians were from Mars!

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496958617945317377

https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/1496974183922024448

Apparently radiation levels at chernobyl are spiking

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1496989555739746304

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1496987322553876480

https://twitter.com/mikenelson586/status/1496965861860646918

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Russia won't take over the entire country. I suspect the surrender terms will be to cede Luhansk/Donetsk and formally recognize Crimea as part of Russia. Putin doesn't want the headache of trying to occupy a huge country like that, and having those 3 areas lets him pretend to be a Tzar while also pushing his narrative of trying to support the Russian separatists in those areas.

Does the Ukraine that's left think harder about joining NATO? Or is that still not possible/desired?

Seanchan posted...

Does the Ukraine that's left think harder about joining NATO? Or is that still not possible/desired?

Uh, they wanted to

War has changed

Imagine this kind of coverage in WW2

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497013747071684618

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1497022168353452034

https://twitter.com/danriversitv/status/1496951909873246213

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497017441288916994

https://twitter.com/HansNichols/status/1497025238009319426

It concerns me that the world governments want to try sanctions against a guy who doesn't seem to care what they're going to do and who was just making nice with Xi Jinping at the Olympics. Putin might not need the rest of the world if he has China backing him with tech and manufacturing needs.

Thank you for linking these. I mostly keep to reading AP at work, since it's about as neutral a source you can get, but viewing Tweet updates can also give some perspective.

Isquen posted...

Thank you for linking these. I mostly keep to reading AP at work, since it's about as neutral a source you can get, but viewing Tweet updates can also give some perspective.

Second this

Uglyface2 posted...

It concerns me that the world governments want to try sanctions against a guy who doesn't seem to care what they're going to do and who was just making nice with Xi Jinping at the Olympics. Putin might not need the rest of the world if he has China backing him with tech and manufacturing needs.

China just announced they are ending all wheat restrictions with Russia to meet their wheat demand due to sanctions.

Ghost of Kyiv is trending #1 on Twitter. Probably a fake story, but it not, it is the first ace in over 20 years at least.

https://twitter.com/ericgeller/status/1497046324566544388

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1497042959186870277

https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1497050305313185793

^ Aircraft shot down over Kyiv. Ukraine claims it was a Russian Aircraft. CNN said it was Ukrainian Su-27 and said it was confirmed.

https://twitter.com/USCentrist/status/1496918439046307852

^ Russia fired accidentally on Turkey ship.

Uglyface2 posted...

It concerns me that the world governments want to try sanctions against a guy who doesn't seem to care what they're going to do and who was just making nice with Xi Jinping at the Olympics. Putin might not need the rest of the world if he has China backing him with tech and manufacturing needs.

I think it's not so much importing that Russia will need as it is exporting. There's no use in having all that oil and gas and traders in Moscow if there's nobody to trade with. Most of Asia bar Japan and SK will probably stick with Russia, but good luck keeping a half-decent economy if the EU, AU and US all won't buy your shit. Unfortunately, it's looking like the sanctions required aren't going to be harsh enough, but I believe they would be effective in destabilising Russia if stronger.

Regardless, China already look like they're going to be the big winners of this war. Giving more power to China is probably why a lot of states are pushing back against sanctions against Russia, and is something I haven't seen mentioned a lot yet (but will probably be discussed a lot more once the whole war in Europe thing is less novel). Russia is already heavily dependent on China and will become even more so as a result of this, with their trade partners further limited. I think that China had already profited (relative to the rest of the world, at least) the moment Russia invaded Ukraine, and keeping China away from Russia is probably not worth all the handwringing and weak sanctions which won't do much. The latter part is probably a hot take (hence why the bullshit is continuing and will continue for some time), partially because broader levels of analysis tends to think more about geopolitical power than actual human lives.

Looking at the wreckage it appears it was a Russian Kaliber missile. Not a plane at all.

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1497058536140034053

^ Battle in Sumy

Ghost of Kyiv reddit thread

r/acecombat - "Ghost of Kiev" Megathread

^ Thread made on a video game reddit about the Ghost has been shutdown. Supposedly debunked as a false rumor by War Thunder YouTuber that was attempted to be turned into a grift.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497083662814244864

We are back to a ukranian Su as CNN stated before. The wreckage seems to match.

https://twitter.com/breaking911WW/status/1497078618312298526

21st century warfare

Seanchan posted...

Does the Ukraine that's left think harder about joining NATO? Or is that still not possible/desired?

I would imagine there would be some terms regarding stopping them from joining NATO under threat of further invasions

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

I would imagine there would be some terms regarding stopping them from joining NATO under threat of further invasions

But if they joined quickly enough then they'd be safe(er?) from future invasion. No?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497099622384349184

5 miles from Kyiv

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497102530370846741

https://twitter.com/NaveedAJamali/status/1497054100902404098

https://twitter.com/NaveedAJamali/status/1497052915533500419

I don't wanna be telling other people what to do and it's a bit hypocritical of me, but please get some sleep, play some games for a bit or something and just try and stay off twitter and the like for a few hours, Corrik. I know it's a constantly developing situation and a massive historical event but I'm pretty sure you've been looking at this stuff with a few hours break max since it broke out, and constantly digesting war footage and news is not gonna be conducive to good mental wellbeing.