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| Topic | Biden | 40,962,735 | 57.64% | Trump | 27,258,817 | 38.36% [Ng Election Tracker!] |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 2:38:49 PM #487: | https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats Good job to Florida for making their data accessible! I guess they learned from 2000 and have made their counting process much better. I had been reading reports that Republicans were doing well in Miami but this sort of drives this home. Hillary won Miami-Dade 63-33 in 2016 (65% of Trump/Clinton votes). Dems are only at 61% of Dem/Rep votes so far with the mail in and early voting. Election day stats they just released show the Dems only getting about 53% of the Dem/Rep votes on election day. So even assuming the NPA votes favor Biden by 10 points and crossover votes favor him by 2 points, Trump is probably doing 6-7% or so better in Miami than in 2016. This was predicted by the polls showing Trump running stronger with minorities and weaker with white people than in 2016 so I expect he'll do worse in other parts of the state in 2016. But improving by 6 in Miami should make the Florida result pretty safe. I feel good about my Trump +2 Florida prediction. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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