Poll of the Day > FiveThirtyEight now gives Biden an 88% chance to win the election.

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Judgmenl 10/20/20 8:47:19 AM #1:	https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ --- You're a regular Jack Kerouac <cite>Judgmenl posted [p:946069393] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
adjl 10/20/20 9:30:04 AM #2:	Polls are all well and good, but they're still not conclusive and everyone needs to get out and vote, rather than assuming they don't need to because of how the polls look. --- This is my signature. It exists to keep people from skipping the last line of my posts. <cite>adjl posted [p:946070338] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Polls are all well and good, but they're still not conclusive and everyone needs to get out and vote, rather than assuming they don't need to because of how the polls look. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ParanoidObsessive 10/20/20 9:32:47 AM #3:	"On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance." --- "Wall of Text'D!" --- oldskoolplayr76 "POwned again." --- blight family <cite>ParanoidObsessive posted [p:946070386] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>"On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance."</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Far-Queue 10/20/20 9:50:21 AM #4:	adjl posted... Polls are all well and good, but they're still not conclusive and everyone needs to get out and vote, rather than assuming they don't need to because of how the polls look. ParanoidObsessive posted... "On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance." Yeah, these --- https://imgur.com/ZwO4qO2 "Far-Queue is probably one of the least troll-like of the posters here." - LinkPizza <cite>Far-Queue posted [p:946070853] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>adjl posted... </cite> <quote>Polls are all well and good, but they're still not conclusive and everyone needs to get out and vote, rather than assuming they don't need to because of how the polls look.</quote> ParanoidObsessive posted... </cite> <quote>"On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance."</quote> Yeah, these </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mead 10/20/20 9:52:18 AM #5:	ParanoidObsessive posted... "On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance." important to keep in mind, but 2020 is a very different situation than 2016 in so many ways --- The Betrayer <cite>Mead posted [p:946070910] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>ParanoidObsessive posted... </cite> <quote>"On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance."</quote> important to keep in mind, but 2020 is a very different situation than 2016 in so many ways </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Alpha218 10/20/20 9:53:07 AM #6:	ParanoidObsessive posted... "On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance." Donald Trump was a polling error behind Hillary Clinton and won by razor thin margins in 3 swing states. Clinton still won the popular vote by 3 million votes. Meanwhile Biden is currently leading Trump by double digits, the polls are weighted differently now (they take education level into account much more) and Trump has to play defense in some states that were safely red before. Also, early voting is 6x higher than it was in 2016, and the demographic that does that leans much more blue. --- I'm Commander Shepard, and this is my favorite user on the Citadel. https://discord.gg/Wgtz2y9 - Come join us for Among Us <cite>Alpha218 posted [p:946070933] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>ParanoidObsessive posted... </cite> <quote>"On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance."</quote>Donald Trump was a polling error behind Hillary Clinton and won by razor thin margins in 3 swing states. Clinton still won the popular vote by 3 million votes. Meanwhile Biden is currently leading Trump by double digits, the polls are weighted differently now (they take education level into account much more) and Trump has to play defense in some states that were safely red before. Also, early voting is 6x higher than it was in 2016, and the demographic that does that leans much more blue. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ParanoidObsessive 10/20/20 10:06:14 AM #7:	Mead posted... important to keep in mind, but 2020 is a very different situation than 2016 in so many ways True, but also worth keeping in mind that polls aren't always all that helpful because different polling methodology can result in wildly different results, and there are always possibilities that people are simply ignoring that don't translate into real world applicability. And that's not even getting into sites with a political bias who can easily skew the numbers. Treating polls like a prophecy or seer can bite you in the ass. It's one of the reasons why people get blindsided by things that seem kind of obvious in hindsight. --- "Wall of Text'D!" --- oldskoolplayr76 "POwned again." --- blight family <cite>ParanoidObsessive posted [p:946071238] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote><cite>Mead posted...</cite> <quote>important to keep in mind, but 2020 is a very different situation than 2016 in so many ways</quote> True, but also worth keeping in mind that polls aren't always all that helpful because different polling methodology can result in wildly different results, and there are always possibilities that people are simply ignoring that don't translate into real world applicability. And that's not even getting into sites with a political bias who can easily skew the numbers. Treating polls like a prophecy or seer can bite you in the ass. It's one of the reasons why people get blindsided by things that seem kind of obvious in hindsight.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
TheWorstPoster 10/20/20 10:25:31 AM #8:	I have a hard time believing that Biden would win all because of his rallies look like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyC_r_MpG8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qynk_v11NLA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUcbEJCjxuY Hell, contrast both Trump and Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02EhVqp8jQM <cite>TheWorstPoster posted [p:946071764] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>I have a hard time believing that Biden would win all because of his rallies look like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyC_r_MpG8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qynk_v11NLA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUcbEJCjxuY Hell, contrast both Trump and Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02EhVqp8jQM </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mead 10/20/20 10:32:34 AM #9:	ParanoidObsessive posted... Treating polls like a prophecy or seer can bite you in the ass who is claiming polls should be looked at that way --- The Betrayer <cite>Mead posted [p:946071972] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>ParanoidObsessive posted... </cite> <quote>Treating polls like a prophecy or seer can bite you in the ass</quote> who is claiming polls should be looked at that way </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Eat Man 10/20/20 10:41:21 AM #10:	The 538 polling aggregate is probabilistic, not a crystal ball, but a get particularly annoyed when people point out that it gave trump 29% as if 29%=0%. --- Check out the opening excerpts of my cyberpunk novel at https://www.eyesofglass.com, also featuring my complete rewrite of Avengers Endgame! <cite>Eat Man posted [p:946072228] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>The 538 polling aggregate is probabilistic, not a crystal ball, but a get particularly annoyed when people point out that it gave trump 29% as if 29%=0%. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
argonautweakend 10/20/20 10:44:19 AM #11:	If trump were to win people will act like 88= 100%, and have never heard of the concept of an upset, example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Appalachian_State_vs._Michigan_football_game <cite>argonautweakend posted [p:946072328] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>If trump were to win people will act like 88= 100%, and have never heard of the concept of an upset, example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Appalachian_State_vs._Michigan_football_game </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mead 10/20/20 11:04:20 AM #12:	Only I am smart enough to know that unlikely events can occur everyone else is dumb and thinks taco bell is real Mexican food --- The Betrayer <cite>Mead posted [p:946072896] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Only I am smart enough to know that unlikely events can occur everyone else is dumb and thinks taco bell is real Mexican food </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Far-Queue 10/20/20 11:06:23 AM #13:	Mead posted... everyone else is dumb and thinks taco bell is real Mexican food Hey now I resent this I'm dumb and think Taco Bell is awful --- https://imgur.com/ZwO4qO2 "Far-Queue is probably one of the least troll-like of the posters here." - LinkPizza <cite>Far-Queue posted [p:946072961] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Mead posted... </cite> <quote>everyone else is dumb and thinks taco bell is real Mexican food</quote>Hey now I resent this I'm dumb and think Taco Bell is awful </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Alpha218 10/20/20 11:50:37 AM #14:	TheWorstPoster posted... I have a hard time believing that Biden would win all because of his rallies look like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyC_r_MpG8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qynk_v11NLA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUcbEJCjxuY Hell, contrast both Trump and Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02EhVqp8jQM Do you maybe remember that theres been some major event thats been going on throughout the year that Trump is trying to pretend isnt happening --- I'm Commander Shepard, and this is my favorite user on the Citadel. https://discord.gg/Wgtz2y9 - Come join us for Among Us <cite>Alpha218 posted [p:946074554] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>TheWorstPoster posted... </cite> <quote>I have a hard time believing that Biden would win all because of his rallies look like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyC_r_MpG8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qynk_v11NLA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUcbEJCjxuY Hell, contrast both Trump and Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02EhVqp8jQM</quote>Do you maybe remember that theres been some major event thats been going on throughout the year that Trump is trying to pretend isnt happening </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BlackScythe0 10/20/20 11:53:46 AM #15:	I'm sure he has a 88% chance of winning the popular vote. Get back to me when he has an 88% chance of winning in the electoral college. <cite>BlackScythe0 posted [p:946074667] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>I'm sure he has a 88% chance of winning the popular vote. Get back to me when he has an 88% chance of winning in the electoral college. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ogurisama 10/20/20 12:01:05 PM #16:	They need more Dems going out to vote in Red and swing states Deep blue states your vote has less weight, not saying not to vote there, but the people you need to tell to vote are the swing and red states --- http://cdn-android.apptap.com/img/870/mobi.colortrilogy.bitlink/267135850.png https://i.chzbgr.com/completestore/12/10/5/uv4r7nGyrE6ylt2lHGWpiQ2.gif <cite>Ogurisama posted [p:946074922] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>They need more Dems going out to vote in Red and swing states Deep blue states your vote has less weight, not saying not to vote there, but the people you need to tell to vote are the swing and red states </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mead 10/20/20 12:01:57 PM #17:	BlackScythe0 posted... I'm sure he has a 88% chance of winning the popular vote. Get back to me when he has an 88% chance of winning in the electoral college. Thats exactly the purpose of FiveThirtyEight --- The Betrayer <cite>Mead posted [p:946074947] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>BlackScythe0 posted... </cite> <quote>I'm sure he has a 88% chance of winning the popular vote. Get back to me when he has an 88% chance of winning in the electoral college.</quote> Thats exactly the purpose of FiveThirtyEight </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mead 10/20/20 12:02:58 PM #18:	Ogurisama posted... They need more Dems going out to vote in Red and swing states Deep blue states your vote has less weight, not saying not to vote there, but the people you need to tell to vote are the swing and red states everyone should vote everyone --- The Betrayer <cite>Mead posted [p:946074986] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Ogurisama posted... </cite> <quote>They need more Dems going out to vote in Red and swing states Deep blue states your vote has less weight, not saying not to vote there, but the people you need to tell to vote are the swing and red states</quote> everyone should vote everyone </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Judgmenl 10/20/20 12:20:29 PM #19:	BlackScythe0 posted... I'm sure he has a 88% chance of winning the popular vote. Get back to me when he has an 88% chance of winning in the electoral college. lolno, he has a 100% chance to win the popular vote. He has a 88% chance to win the EV. --- You're a regular Jack Kerouac <cite>Judgmenl posted [p:946075639] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>BlackScythe0 posted... </cite> <quote>I'm sure he has a 88% chance of winning the popular vote. Get back to me when he has an 88% chance of winning in the electoral college.</quote>lolno, he has a 100% chance to win the popular vote. He has a 88% chance to win the EV. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Blightzkrieg 10/20/20 12:21:45 PM #20:	Alpha218 posted... Do you maybe remember that theres been some major event thats been going on throughout the year that Trump is trying to pretend isnt happening Dude ICOYAR is like 35 years old and I'm pretty confident he still doesn't know how tax brackets work --- https://imgur.com/PYqvmgk <cite>Blightzkrieg posted [p:946075686] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Alpha218 posted... </cite> <quote>Do you maybe remember that theres been some major event thats been going on throughout the year that Trump is trying to pretend isnt happening</quote>Dude ICOYAR is like 35 years old and I'm pretty confident he still doesn't know how tax brackets work </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BlackScythe0 10/20/20 12:25:06 PM #21:	TheWorstPoster posted... I have a hard time believing that Biden would win all because of his rallies look like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyC_r_MpG8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qynk_v11NLA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUcbEJCjxuY Hell, contrast both Trump and Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02EhVqp8jQM This is bad even by Icoyar standards. <cite>BlackScythe0 posted [p:946075795] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>TheWorstPoster posted... </cite> <quote>I have a hard time believing that Biden would win all because of his rallies look like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyC_r_MpG8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qynk_v11NLA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUcbEJCjxuY Hell, contrast both Trump and Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02EhVqp8jQM</quote> This is bad even by Icoyar standards. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Judgmenl 10/20/20 12:30:38 PM #22:	Imagine dying because you went to a Trump rally in 2020. --- You're a regular Jack Kerouac <cite>Judgmenl posted [p:946075968] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Imagine dying because you went to a Trump rally in 2020. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mead 10/20/20 12:39:47 PM #23:	Judgmenl posted... Imagine dying because you went to a Trump rally in 2020. --- The Betrayer <cite>Mead posted [p:946076316] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Judgmenl posted... </cite> <quote>Imagine dying because you went to a Trump rally in 2020.</quote> </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Metalsonic66 10/20/20 12:43:41 PM #24:	Too soon bro --- PSN/Steam ID: Metalsonic_69 Big bombs go kabang. <cite>Metalsonic66 posted [p:946076448] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Too soon bro </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
agesboy 10/20/20 1:11:48 PM #25:	how fast he tweeted after his own death? --- https://imgur.com/LabbRyN raytan and Kana are on opposite ends of the Awesome Spectrum. <cite>agesboy posted [p:946077479] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>how fast he tweeted after his own death? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Zeus 10/20/20 1:50:22 PM #27:	ParanoidObsessive posted... "On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance." Yeah, but 88% is higher than 71%! Alpha218 posted... Donald Trump was a polling error behind Hillary Clinton and won by razor thin margins in 3 swing states. Clinton still won the popular vote by 3 million votes. Meanwhile Biden is currently leading Trump by double digits, the polls are weighted differently now (they take education level into account much more) and Trump has to play defense in some states that were safely red before. Also, early voting is 6x higher than it was in 2016, and the demographic that does that leans much more blue. So if Trump wins again, will you continue the same "well, the polls have improved since the last time they were glaringly wrong" argument? =p And early voting this year isn't going to resemble early voting in prior years. Alpha218 posted... (they take education level into account much more) Which is a silly assertion that I'm sure is supposed to mean something, but ultimately doesn't. --- (\/)(\/)\|-\| There are precious few at ease / With moral ambiguities / So we act as though they don't exist. <cite>Zeus posted [p:946078926] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>ParanoidObsessive posted... </cite> <quote>"On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance."</quote> Yeah, but 88% is higher than 71%! Alpha218 posted... </cite> <quote>Donald Trump was a polling error behind Hillary Clinton and won by razor thin margins in 3 swing states. Clinton still won the popular vote by 3 million votes. Meanwhile Biden is currently leading Trump by double digits, the polls are weighted differently now (they take education level into account much more) and Trump has to play defense in some states that were safely red before. Also, early voting is 6x higher than it was in 2016, and the demographic that does that leans much more blue.</quote> So if Trump wins again, will you continue the same "well, the polls have improved since the last time they were glaringly wrong" argument? =p And early voting this year isn't going to resemble early voting in prior years. Alpha218 posted... </cite> <quote>(they take education level into account much more)</quote> Which is a silly assertion that I'm sure is supposed to mean something, but ultimately doesn't. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Alpha218 10/20/20 2:01:23 PM #28:	Zeus posted... Alpha218 posted... (they take education level into account much more) Which is a silly assertion that I'm sure is supposed to mean something, but ultimately doesn't. 538 highlights this on their site and has written articles on this. Heres an article from right after the 2016 election that highlights that voters who have less education went for Trump: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/ Btw not having a degree doesnt make someone dumb, if thats what youre trying to take out of my statement. Theres many reasons this demographic may more closely side with Trump --- I'm Commander Shepard, and this is my favorite user on the Citadel. https://discord.gg/Wgtz2y9 - Come join us for Among Us <cite>Alpha218 posted [p:946079328] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Zeus posted... </cite> <quote>Alpha218 posted... (they take education level into account much more) Which is a silly assertion that I'm sure is supposed to mean something, but ultimately doesn't.</quote>538 highlights this on their site and has written articles on this. Heres an article from right after the 2016 election that highlights that voters who have less education went for Trump: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/ Btw not having a degree doesnt make someone dumb, if thats what youre trying to take out of my statement. Theres many reasons this demographic may more closely side with Trump </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
streamofthesky 10/20/20 5:55:33 PM #31:	adjl posted... Polls are all well and good, but they're still not conclusive and everyone needs to get out and vote, rather than assuming they don't need to because of how the polls look. This is even more worthless than a poll. It's betting odds gleaned from polls, condensing and simplifying the numbers from every state and all of the polls there into one single numerical value for the entire country. It's an inkling based off a guesstimate based off a survey. ParanoidObsessive posted... "On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance." Yeah, I wish 538 would quit doing this shit. Why isn't doing polling by state enough, why do they have to make ass clowns out of themselves w/ such generalized bs? It's actively harmful. In 2016, we saw it make a lot of people complacent and it resulted in horrific damage to the country. I've lost all of my respect for 538. Not for being off a bit in the polling, but b/c just like that Crossfire program, they're "hurting America". <cite>streamofthesky posted [p:946087801] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>adjl posted... </cite> <quote>Polls are all well and good, but they're still not conclusive and everyone needs to get out and vote, rather than assuming they don't need to because of how the polls look.</quote>This is even more worthless than a poll. It's betting odds gleaned from polls, condensing and simplifying the numbers from every state and all of the polls there into one single numerical value for the entire country. It's an inkling based off a guesstimate based off a survey. ParanoidObsessive posted... </cite> <quote>"On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance."</quote>Yeah, I wish 538 would quit doing this shit. Why isn't doing polling by state enough, why do they have to make ass clowns out of themselves w/ such generalized bs? It's actively harmful. In 2016, we saw it make a lot of people complacent and it resulted in horrific damage to the country. I've lost all of my respect for 538. Not for being off a bit in the polling, but b/c just like that Crossfire program, they're "hurting America". </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Wanded 10/20/20 6:00:54 PM #32:	so is anyone gonna actually put money down and make this actually interesting or do you not believe the polling experts? --- Puss in Boots was a good movie and it deserves more recognition <cite>Wanded posted [p:946088018] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>so is anyone gonna actually put money down and make this actually interesting or do you not believe the polling experts? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Judgmenl 10/20/20 6:02:29 PM #33:	Wanded posted... so is anyone gonna actually put money down and make this actually interesting or do you not believe the polling experts? I don't care. I'm not an idiot like Erik account betting on the Patriots. --- You're a regular Jack Kerouac <cite>Judgmenl posted [p:946088066] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Wanded posted... </cite> <quote>so is anyone gonna actually put money down and make this actually interesting or do you not believe the polling experts?</quote>I don't care. I'm not an idiot like Erik account betting on the Patriots. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Yellow 10/20/20 6:03:32 PM #34:	He can still win and we should be terrified of that scenario... so it's no time to relax. --- why am I even here <cite>Yellow posted [p:946088101] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>He can still win and we should be terrified of that scenario... so it's no time to relax. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BlackScythe0 10/20/20 6:20:26 PM #35:	Wanded posted... so is anyone gonna actually put money down and make this actually interesting or do you not believe the polling experts? People who feel driven to make bets have a problem imo. I've never bet on anything and don't think I ever will. <cite>BlackScythe0 posted [p:946088714] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Wanded posted... </cite> <quote>so is anyone gonna actually put money down and make this actually interesting or do you not believe the polling experts?</quote> People who feel driven to make bets have a problem imo. I've never bet on anything and don't think I ever will. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
GanonsSpirit 10/20/20 6:22:25 PM #36:	I don't know why everyone acting like 29% is low. 3/10 is pretty good odds. And he barely won, too. --- https://imgur.com/tsQUpxC Thanks, Nade Duck! [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]] <cite>GanonsSpirit posted [p:946088789] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>I don't know why everyone acting like 29% is low. 3/10 is pretty good odds. And he barely won, too.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mead 10/20/20 6:23:08 PM #37:	streamofthesky posted... In 2016, we saw it make a lot of people complacent and it resulted in horrific damage to the country. I dont think people stayed home because of some headline about election odds people felt rightfully underrepresented and didnt like either candidate so they werent motivated to vote at all --- The Betrayer <cite>Mead posted [p:946088819] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>streamofthesky posted... </cite> <quote>In 2016, we saw it make a lot of people complacent and it resulted in horrific damage to the country.</quote> I dont think people stayed home because of some headline about election odds people felt rightfully underrepresented and didnt like either candidate so they werent motivated to vote at all </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
chaosbowser 10/20/20 6:27:59 PM #38:	GanonsSpirit posted... I don't know why everyone acting like 29% is low. 3/10 is pretty good odds. And he barely won, too. Yeah I'm confused too... He had a 1/3 chance of winning. That's pretty considerable. Compared to his current odds being like 1/8. He has less than half the chance he did of winning last time and that percentage is basically his odds that there's some sort of massive polling error or significant event in the next 2 weeks that completely flips the race for trump. --- I love people. I hate people. <cite>chaosbowser posted [p:946089016] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>GanonsSpirit posted... </cite> <quote>I don't know why everyone acting like 29% is low. 3/10 is pretty good odds. And he barely won, too.</quote> Yeah I'm confused too... He had a 1/3 chance of winning. That's pretty considerable. Compared to his current odds being like 1/8. He has less than half the chance he did of winning last time and that percentage is basically his odds that there's some sort of massive polling error or significant event in the next 2 weeks that completely flips the race for trump. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
adjl 10/20/20 6:36:08 PM #39:	TheWorstPoster posted... I have a hard time believing that Biden would win all because of his rallies look like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyC_r_MpG8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qynk_v11NLA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUcbEJCjxuY Hell, contrast both Trump and Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02EhVqp8jQM I know you don't get out much, but I'm amazed that even you are this oblivious to the world around you. --- This is my signature. It exists to keep people from skipping the last line of my posts. <cite>adjl posted [p:946089342] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>TheWorstPoster posted... </cite> <quote>I have a hard time believing that Biden would win all because of his rallies look like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyC_r_MpG8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qynk_v11NLA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUcbEJCjxuY Hell, contrast both Trump and Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02EhVqp8jQM</quote> I know you don't get out much, but I'm amazed that even you are this oblivious to the world around you. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
OrangeDawn 10/20/20 6:38:41 PM #40:	Nathan is the least likely to contract covid at a campaign rally considering he hasn't left his basement except for bowling nights in the last decade --- 3DS Friend Code: 3308-5843-0863 Town: Virginia <cite>OrangeDawn posted [p:946089447] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Nathan is the least likely to contract covid at a campaign rally considering he hasn't left his basement except for bowling nights in the last decade </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Blightzkrieg 10/20/20 6:49:04 PM #41:	Mead posted... I dont think people stayed home because of some headline about election odds people felt rightfully underrepresented and didnt like either candidate so they werent motivated to vote at all Which is a naive and selfish attitude tbh The electoral system in the US is shit, but opting out will just make it worse and push everything further right It's a citizen's duty to choose the "lesser of two evils" if that's what it ultimately comes down to, not that anyone managed to come up with a good reason to hate HRC in that whole shitshow of a campaign --- https://imgur.com/PYqvmgk <cite>Blightzkrieg posted [p:946089832] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Mead posted... </cite> <quote>I dont think people stayed home because of some headline about election odds people felt rightfully underrepresented and didnt like either candidate so they werent motivated to vote at all</quote>Which is a naive and selfish attitude tbh The electoral system in the US is shit, but opting out will just make it worse and push everything further right It's a citizen's duty to choose the "lesser of two evils" if that's what it ultimately comes down to, not that anyone managed to come up with a good reason to hate HRC in that whole shitshow of a campaign </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Wanded 10/20/20 6:54:57 PM #42:	Judgmenl posted... I don't care. I'm not an idiot like Erik account betting on the Patriots. cared enough to make a topic and discuss the issue for several pages BlackScythe0 posted... People who feel driven to make bets have a problem imo. I've never bet on anything and don't think I ever will. so if someone bets you 30$ the sun won't rise tomorrow you wouldn't take it? sounds to me you know the 88% is bunk --- Puss in Boots was a good movie and it deserves more recognition <cite>Wanded posted [p:946090064] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Judgmenl posted... </cite> <quote>I don't care. I'm not an idiot like Erik account betting on the Patriots.</quote>cared enough to make a topic and discuss the issue for several pages BlackScythe0 posted... </cite> <quote>People who feel driven to make bets have a problem imo. I've never bet on anything and don't think I ever will.</quote>so if someone bets you 30$ the sun won't rise tomorrow you wouldn't take it? sounds to me you know the 88% is bunk </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Blightzkrieg 10/20/20 6:58:04 PM #43:	Wanded posted... so if someone bets you 30$ the sun won't rise tomorrow you wouldn't take it? sounds to me you know the 88% is bunk You know the sun is more than 88% likely to rise tomorrow, right? --- https://imgur.com/PYqvmgk <cite>Blightzkrieg posted [p:946090164] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Wanded posted... </cite> <quote>so if someone bets you 30$ the sun won't rise tomorrow you wouldn't take it? sounds to me you know the 88% is bunk</quote>You know the sun is more than 88% likely to rise tomorrow, right? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BlackScythe0 10/20/20 7:07:24 PM #44:	Wanded posted... so if someone bets you 30$ the sun won't rise tomorrow you wouldn't take it? sounds to me you know the 88% is bunk I don't prey on the mentally disabled. <cite>BlackScythe0 posted [p:946090515] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Wanded posted... </cite> <quote>so if someone bets you 30$ the sun won't rise tomorrow you wouldn't take it? sounds to me you know the 88% is bunk</quote> I don't prey on the mentally disabled. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Dragooncancer_ 10/20/20 7:08:25 PM #45:	Ok, and? Everyone who can, should still go vote. --- I used to be with it, but then they changed what "it" was, and now what I'm with isn't it. And what's "it" seems weird and scary to me. <cite>Dragooncancer_ posted [p:946090568] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Ok, and? Everyone who can, should still go vote. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Gaawa_chan 10/20/20 7:08:52 PM #46:	Alpha218 posted... Donald Trump was a polling error The polls were correct; the popular interpretation of them was not. People acted like because Clinton had a higher chance of winning, that meant she would win 100%, which is unfathomably stupid. --- Hi <cite>Gaawa_chan posted [p:946090587] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Alpha218 posted... </cite> <quote>Donald Trump was a polling error</quote>The polls were correct; the popular interpretation of them was not. People acted like because Clinton had a higher chance of winning, that meant she would win 100%, which is unfathomably stupid. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Wanded 10/20/20 7:09:44 PM #47:	Blightzkrieg posted... You know the sun is more than 88% likely to rise tomorrow, right? alright, i'll give a handicapped bid then, if trump wins you pay 88$, if biden wins i'll pay 100$ --- Puss in Boots was a good movie and it deserves more recognition <cite>Wanded posted [p:946090615] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Blightzkrieg posted... </cite> <quote>You know the sun is more than 88% likely to rise tomorrow, right?</quote>alright, i'll give a handicapped bid then, if trump wins you pay 88$, if biden wins i'll pay 100$ </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
wolfy42 10/20/20 7:10:24 PM #48:	Mead posted... Only I am smart enough to know that unlikely events can occur everyone else is dumb and thinks taco bell is real Mexican food Usually when people post like this I rush to said that I am not actually that person even though they sound like me. I feel fine being considered Mead though, so think whatever you want. --- Tacobot 3000 "Saving the world from not having tacos." Glowing Elephant "Stonehedge was a sex thing." <cite>wolfy42 posted [p:946090642] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Mead posted... </cite> <quote>Only I am smart enough to know that unlikely events can occur everyone else is dumb and thinks taco bell is real Mexican food</quote> Usually when people post like this I rush to said that I am not actually that person even though they sound like me. I feel fine being considered Mead though, so think whatever you want. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Blightzkrieg 10/20/20 7:10:52 PM #49:	dude nobody wants to bet with a no name troll who came out of nowhere and is gonna claim voter fraud the moment the polls turn south --- https://imgur.com/PYqvmgk <cite>Blightzkrieg posted [p:946090669] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>dude nobody wants to bet with a no name troll who came out of nowhere and is gonna claim voter fraud the moment the polls turn south </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Wanded 10/20/20 7:14:26 PM #50:	Blightzkrieg posted... dude nobody wants to bet with a no name troll who came out of nowhere and is gonna claim voter fraud the moment the polls turn south bet terms are that no side can claim fraud, no matter what happens, the one which is president in the end of january wins --- Puss in Boots was a good movie and it deserves more recognition <cite>Wanded posted [p:946090797] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Blightzkrieg posted... </cite> <quote>dude nobody wants to bet with a no name troll who came out of nowhere and is gonna claim voter fraud the moment the polls turn south</quote>bet terms are that no side can claim fraud, no matter what happens, the one which is president in the end of january wins </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BlackScythe0 10/20/20 7:21:00 PM #51:	Wanded posted... bet terms are that no side can claim fraud, no matter what happens, the one which is president in the end of january wins This sounds like some sort of set up for Trump refusing to leave office. <cite>BlackScythe0 posted [p:946091043] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Wanded posted... </cite> <quote>bet terms are that no side can claim fraud, no matter what happens, the one which is president in the end of january wins</quote> This sounds like some sort of set up for Trump refusing to leave office. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
adjl 10/20/20 7:26:36 PM #52:	Wanded posted... alright, i'll give a handicapped bid then, if trump wins you pay 88$, if biden wins i'll pay 100$ You're weirdly desperate to gamble on this. I think you might have a problem. --- This is my signature. It exists to keep people from skipping the last line of my posts. <cite>adjl posted [p:946091262] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>Wanded posted... </cite> <quote>alright, i'll give a handicapped bid then, if trump wins you pay 88$, if biden wins i'll pay 100$</quote> You're weirdly desperate to gamble on this. I think you might have a problem. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Poll of the Day > FiveThirtyEight now gives Biden an 88% chance to win the election. (+) Yeah! (+)

Poll of the Day > FiveThirtyEight now gives Biden an 88% chance to win the election.