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Topic	FiveThirtyEight now gives Biden an 88% chance to win the election.
Zeus 10/20/20 1:50:22 PM #27:	ParanoidObsessive posted... "On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance." Yeah, but 88% is higher than 71%! Alpha218 posted... Donald Trump was a polling error behind Hillary Clinton and won by razor thin margins in 3 swing states. Clinton still won the popular vote by 3 million votes. Meanwhile Biden is currently leading Trump by double digits, the polls are weighted differently now (they take education level into account much more) and Trump has to play defense in some states that were safely red before. Also, early voting is 6x higher than it was in 2016, and the demographic that does that leans much more blue. So if Trump wins again, will you continue the same "well, the polls have improved since the last time they were glaringly wrong" argument? =p And early voting this year isn't going to resemble early voting in prior years. Alpha218 posted... (they take education level into account much more) Which is a silly assertion that I'm sure is supposed to mean something, but ultimately doesn't. --- (\/)(\/)\|-\| There are precious few at ease / With moral ambiguities / So we act as though they don't exist. <cite>Zeus posted [p:946078926] in FiveThirty... [t:79051479]...</cite> <quote>ParanoidObsessive posted... </cite> <quote>"On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance."</quote> Yeah, but 88% is higher than 71%! Alpha218 posted... </cite> <quote>Donald Trump was a polling error behind Hillary Clinton and won by razor thin margins in 3 swing states. Clinton still won the popular vote by 3 million votes. Meanwhile Biden is currently leading Trump by double digits, the polls are weighted differently now (they take education level into account much more) and Trump has to play defense in some states that were safely red before. Also, early voting is 6x higher than it was in 2016, and the demographic that does that leans much more blue.</quote> So if Trump wins again, will you continue the same "well, the polls have improved since the last time they were glaringly wrong" argument? =p And early voting this year isn't going to resemble early voting in prior years. Alpha218 posted... </cite> <quote>(they take education level into account much more)</quote> Which is a silly assertion that I'm sure is supposed to mean something, but ultimately doesn't. --- (\/)(\/)\|-\| There are precious few at ease / With moral ambiguities / So we act as though they don't exist. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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