Board 8 > Coronavirus Topic 12 - Wishing all speedy recoveries this affects

(+) Yeah! (+)

if you live with other people, blame them/say you guys have agreed to limit gatherings to be safe.
otherwise just be straight and say you're being extra cautious.

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Yeah, I'd just say you're being extra cautious. That's what we did here with Thanksgiving.

If they're going to be pissed at you for declining a group gathering during a pandemic, that's on them, not you.

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colliding posted...

I got invited to a local friendsgiving (me, two friends, their kids) in lieu of traditional thanksgiving. asked them today if it was still on and now the guest list has grown to include one of their mothers, a brother, and another two friends that I don't know.

how do I politely decline without scolding them

Just say no to going. Its not complicated lol.

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I'm on the verge of cancelling Thanksgiving plans myself.

Family wants to travel down to them...after calling me up that a family friend was in the hospital the other day and had Covid-like symptoms. They're still waiting on test results but that person has pre-existing conditions and has been in/out of the hospital for a number of non-Covid issues.

Last time they saw the possibly sick person was Sunday. Told them they need to be in quarantine, which I know isn't going to happen because they have school age kids and people that can't work from home and won't take off. Plus, I know they'd lie/bend the truth about what they're doing anyway so "we can all spend the holiday together".

Sometimes you have to just suck it up and feel like the asshole, even though it's not your fault.

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https://bgr.com/2020/11/13/coronavirus-lockdown-fauci-update-nationwide-opinion/

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no appetite is a kind of way of saying 'there is no fucking way you're going to take away thanksgiving and motherfucking Christmas.'

like you thought Happy Holidays was a war on Christmas? try saying no gatherings.

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Wanglicious posted...

no appetite is a kind of way of saying 'there is no fucking way you're going to take away thanksgiving and motherfucking Christmas.'

like you thought Happy Holidays was a war on Christmas? try saying no gatherings.

People are already flipping out now. That said, this lockdown would have been in February. Though definitely not constitutional.

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https://bgr.com/2020/11/13/coronavirus-lockdown-joe-biden-covid-19-advisors-opposes-closing-country/#

Biden's task force also agrees with Fauci.

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well yeah, federal government has no authority on this and we've had what, 3 governors get their powers yoinked because they overstepped? Whitmer got all her emergency powers revoked by Michigan's Supreme Court, Newsom got his powers locked out by Cali's state superior, Wolf... i believe was a federal judge so the least damaging of the three. but federal also means it's where other courts will look at. there's a very limited amount governments can legally do.

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People are too dumb.

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Wanglicious posted...

Newsom got his powers locked out by Cali's state superior,

Not true. The ruling was his powers have limits, but that his emergency powers for dealing with the Pandemic were upheld to be lawful.

Nothing regarding our past or current stay at home orders were found to he unlawful in the recent ruling I am assuming you were referring to. It basically was a "stop using these powers for laws not impacted by the virus" ruling.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/14/us-record-184000-new-covid-cases-trump-vaccine-biden

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It looks like Biden is backing away from his comments to lockdown if advised to by scientists, and his coronavirus advisors as a group are advising against a lockdown.

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Frankly if things don't get turned around immediately a ton of areas are going to be forced to choose between either another lockdown or hospitals being overwhelmed and people dying because there weren't resources to attend to them.

There's no excuse for not having mask mandates everywhere at minimum. Bars should probably be closed everywhere too, and certainly in any place where cases are spiking (which is... most places).

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Corrik7 posted...

It looks like Biden is backing away from his comments to lockdown if advised to by scientists, and his coronavirus advisors as a group are advising against a lockdown.

We'll already be through the period that would be peak pandemic by the time Biden is President. Hes likely not going to have much direct impact on the virus here, tbh. The best thing he will be is a stop to Trump having as big a platform to spread misinformation about the virus.

Only way he'd matter much is if the vaccine news went bad.

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The one by Pfizer will take a long time to administer to the population due to the temperature sensitivity of the vaccine to the point where even if it gets approval relatively soon even the US may see a third wave.

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charmander6000 posted...

The one by Pfizer will take a long time to administer to the population due to the temperature sensitivity of the vaccine to the point where even if it gets approval relatively soon even the US may see a third wave.

The US is in its third wave right now

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LordoftheMorons posted...

The US is in its third wave right now

Okay, fourth wave.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Frankly if things don't get turned around immediately a ton of areas are going to be forced to choose between either another lockdown or hospitals being overwhelmed and people dying because there weren't resources to attend to them.

They will gladly choose people dying. A large percentage of people have just completely lost the will to lockdown/care about this virus. Sad.


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UltimaterializerX posted...

If your government is able to cancel holidays, your government is too big.

I won't lie the pet turkey posts on facebook are hilarious.

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oh they'll definitely choose people dying over Christmas.

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More great vaccine news: Moderna's vaccine is 94.5% effective

https://twitter.com/spettypi/status/1328309138112311297

Also unlike Pfizer's vaccine which needs to be stored at -75C, Moderna's only needs to be stored at -20C.

(Another thing was that all severe cases occurred in the placebo group, but given that there were only five vaccinated people who got sick at all that's not statistically significant)

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https://twitter.com/henrygrabar/status/1328307579404111875?s=21

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?

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https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/12/the-southern-hemisphere-skipped-flu-season-in-2020

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Makes sense. Social distancing, masks, etc should work on both, and the flu starts from a much lower R0.

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I disagree.

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Did you care to elaborate? <_<

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If the coronavirus is rampant, specifically people say in USA because people say they are not properly responding to the crisis and following proper precautions, (and we know some areas in south america were even worse regarding it) then I am not sure this properly explains the literal flatline we see here.

In other news, PA now requires masks in your own home, even if socially distant, if anyone from outside your household is present in it at all.

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I mean, people are not doing a good enough job in a lot of places to bring R down from 2.5-3ish to below 1 (which would require preventing 60-67% of infections), but we've clearly reduced R considerably. The flu only has R0=1.2-1.3ish, so reducing infections by even 25% or so would stop exponential growth for the flu but not covid.

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(Also reducing flu infections is probably easier since I don't believe they're significantly driven by asymptomatic spread?)

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Why not? You don't need 100% social isolation to stop a virus. We also benefit that a significant population is already immune/partially immune to the flu due to past exposures/vaccines. We don't have the same benefit with COVID-19.

Another contributing factor is that there is a lot less air travel.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I mean, people are not doing a good enough job in a lot of places to bring R down from 2.5-3ish to below 1 (which would require preventing 60-67% of infections), but we've clearly reduced R considerably. The flu only has R0=1.2-1.3ish, so reducing infections by even 25% or so would stop exponential growth for the flu but not covid.

I would think there is probably a lot of simultaneous cases. I think they said what at the begining that it was like what 25-30% of them both present at the same time right? I wonder if we are just missing a ton of flu cases because we are testing for covid off the bat and then being satisfied with that positive result instead of further testing for the flu.

That isn't a reduction in flu. It's basically a non-existence.

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If each person was causing 1.3 cases of the flu on average and you reduce that by 30% (down to .91) that's not reducing the overall number of cases by only 30%. Now you've switched from exponential growth to exponential decay, and each generation of the virus will have fewer and fewer people until it either dies out or something happens to increase R again (like increased transmission due to seasonality). For the flu R is typically <1 in the summer and >1 in the winter, but presumably doesn't have enough time to ramp down completely and die out over the summer. With social distancing and mask use, even though R increases in the winter, it could still be below 1 and never get back to exponential growth this year.

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I can tell you that the flu is being tested for and being found in the United States.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

If each person was causing 1.3 cases of the flu on average and you reduce that by 30% (down to .91) that's not reducing the overall number of cases by only 30%. Now you've switched from exponential growth to exponential decay, and each generation of the virus will have fewer and fewer people until it either dies out or something happens to increase R again (like increased transmission due to seasonality). For the flu R is typically <1 in the summer and >1 in the winter, but presumably doesn't have enough time to ramp down completely and die out over the summer. With social distancing and mask use, even though R increases in the winter, it could still be below 1 and never get back to exponential growth this year.

Except you are pulling random numbers out to get to your premise.

I would like to see a study with a deeper look at it.

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Do those countries list COVID numbers by positive cases or suspected cases? If it's the latter then I imagine some flu cases may get mistaken as COVID cases, though I doubt it's all of them. That's what makes comparing cases between nations difficult since they all count things differently.

Another explanation is like COVID, the flu tends to be vastly under-reported due to people not getting tested. This (and other illnesses) is further exasperated now as people are avoiding hospitals.

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Pfizer's trial has had more covid events; the new data has their vaccine also being 95% effective:

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1329045421298212865

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charmander6000 posted...

Do those countries list COVID numbers by positive cases or suspected cases? If it's the latter then I imagine some flu cases may get mistaken as COVID cases, though I doubt it's all of them. That's what makes comparing cases between nations difficult since they all count things differently.

Another explanation is like COVID, the flu tends to be vastly under-reported due to people not getting tested. This (and other illnesses) is further exasperated now as people are avoiding hospitals.

Well, in the throes of the pandemic in China last year in December and January, Japan had its highest mark of flu cases in 10 years in February.

Were these all covid? Were these the flu? Why would flu be so strong there normally with mask culture in Japan anyways?

It's why I don't know I agree with the assessment of the charts there. It reeks of explaining why you think those charts show that without any real analysis.

It would be like a QB sucking in the last 6 games of the year. Me attributing it to a super cold winter because I personally believe it was due to the winter. But the real reason being he played with a separated shoulder and 5 broken ribs in that time period.

I mean, it's possible, but the graphs look too unbelievable to me at first glance that I suspect the analysis and would like to see more.

Sadly the worst part is that it plays right into the Covid unbelievers hands of it's just the flu "all the sudden covid comes and magically the flu has disappeared. They are the same thing".

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/health/coronavirus-immunity-lasts-months-study-wellness/index.html

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lol got scolded for wearing a mask at the supermarket today.

a random dude was like "why do you wear a mask? because THE MEDIA told you to!"

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Wait it's not just Americans?
Victory!

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The final county in the US with no covid cases, Loving County, Texas, got one yesterday.

The single case also increases their infection rate to 0.6%

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

lol got scolded for wearing a mask at the supermarket today.

a random dude was like "why do you wear a mask? because THE MEDIA told you to!"

What kind of supermarket? The Jumbo?.
I felt like us masked folks were finally outnumbering the unmasked.
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I feel we're hovering probably right around the 50% mark right now with mask wearing.

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htaeD posted...

What kind of supermarket? The Jumbo?.

dekamarkt.

I felt like us masked folks were finally outnumbering the unmasked.

i'd say it was about 50/50 at that particular supermarket. but yeah, wonder why that guy seemed to be especially annoyed with me wearing a mask when a lot of other people wore masks as well >_>

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

dekamarkt.

i'd say it was about 50/50 at that particular supermarket. but yeah, wonder why that guy seemed to be especially annoyed with me wearing a mask when a lot of other people wore masks as well >_>

Probably cuz he knows how mean you are to people on GameFAQs lol

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Also, 2k deaths in the US today.

I estimate we'll see 3k daily in mid December, based on the daily number of cases 3 weeks ago compared with the daily cases now.

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I'm not convinced we can break 3k deaths a day. We are going to try, but there is a limit to how much we can actually spread the virus and I'm not sure we are that far off.

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