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| Topic | Coronavirus Topic 12 - Wishing all speedy recoveries this affects |
| Corrik7 11/17/20 8:40:29 PM #287: | LordoftheMorons posted... If each person was causing 1.3 cases of the flu on average and you reduce that by 30% (down to .91) that's not reducing the overall number of cases by only 30%. Now you've switched from exponential growth to exponential decay, and each generation of the virus will have fewer and fewer people until it either dies out or something happens to increase R again (like increased transmission due to seasonality). For the flu R is typically <1 in the summer and >1 in the winter, but presumably doesn't have enough time to ramp down completely and die out over the summer. With social distancing and mask use, even though R increases in the winter, it could still be below 1 and never get back to exponential growth this year.Except you are pulling random numbers out to get to your premise. I would like to see a study with a deeper look at it. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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