Board 8 > Coronavirus Topic 12 - Wishing all speedy recoveries this affects

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Esuriat
11/19/20 9:37:05 PM
#301:


It's getting harder to forecast because the positivity rate is soaring so there's more unseen spread going on again so all I can really go on is what the reported numbers were at the end of October (around 100k daily) and what they are now (192k reported today). Testing is trying to keep up but it's going to be overwhelmed right after Thanksgiving.

I do think it will begin to fall off afterward, but the first half of December is going to be a nightmare.

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LordoftheMorons
11/19/20 9:38:40 PM
#302:


I mean we doubled cases in like ten days recently and states have only now started reinstituting countermeasures, so I'd be quite surprised if we didn't break 3k a day

(And then there's the nightmare scenario where you overload the hospitals and instead of getting like a 0.5% death rate with treatment you get a 2-3% death rate or something without treatment for the people you didn't have the resources to treat)

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Corrik7
11/19/20 10:08:17 PM
#303:


It was just short of 2k but yeah pretty close.

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hockeydude15
11/19/20 10:13:48 PM
#304:


I mean don't deaths also start skyrocketing once hospitals become full?

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Corrik7
11/20/20 12:15:35 PM
#305:


You to really applaud China's response. Despite being ground zero and the runaway leader in cases, they have barely had any cases in almost like 9 months. They have less cases than even Moldova, which has a population of just 2.7 million people.

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htaeD
11/20/20 12:26:16 PM
#306:


I feel thats a combination of both propaganda and draconian inhumane measures.
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#307
Post #307 was unavailable or deleted.
Corrik7
11/20/20 12:35:14 PM
#308:


UltimaterializerX posted...
https://www.meehanmd.com/blog/2020-10-10-an-evidence-based-scientific-analysis-of-why-masks-are-ineffective-unnecessary-and-harmful/

How many doctors are we up to who say masks are pointless?
We can probably agree the opinions are mixed. Probably quite more say they are effective, but there is definitely a notable amount that disagree.

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Nanis23
11/20/20 12:37:46 PM
#309:


I am happy to say that after 50 days I finally feel like my body recovered
Not 100% exactly, but good enough
Before the record of staying up without heavy coughing was 2 and a half day and then it returned
But now I am 5 days without heavy coughing and it's great. I do cough sometimes but it's mild and sometimes I don't even notice it. It's no longer painful, it's just there
I was also able to go back to indoor cycling so now it's time to lose those KGs I gained during those 50 days >_> I got fat

Anyway
Final review - I do not recommend. Stay safe

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Corrik7
11/20/20 12:45:04 PM
#310:


Glad to hear you are better!

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Leafeon13N
11/20/20 12:52:31 PM
#311:


Corrik7 posted...
We can probably agree the opinions are mixed. Probably quite more say they are effective, but there is definitely a notable amount that disagree.
No there isn't.

Also that article is consistently disengenuous to outright lying.
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RaidenGarai
11/20/20 12:54:42 PM
#312:


Leafeon13N posted...
No there isn't.

Also that article is consistently disengenuous to outright lying.
Sounds just like the guy that posted the article

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Leafeon13N
11/20/20 12:59:48 PM
#313:


Leafeon13N posted...
No there isn't.

Also that article is consistently disengenuous to outright lying.
Side note, the guy that wrote the article is an antivaxxers that believes vaccines cause autism.

I shouldn't need to explain how much that has been debunked.

If that is the leg you are going to try to stand on here.
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Corrik7
11/20/20 1:01:03 PM
#314:


Leafeon13N posted...
No there isn't.

Also that article is consistently disengenuous to outright lying.

https://sputniknews.com/europe/202011191081209036-danish-study-raises-questions-on-efficacy-of-mask-use-against-covid-19/

It is when you post things like this, where you cannot acknowledge the other side, that you lose people you could possibly convert.

It takes a simple google for someone to see that you are not being forthright while claiming others are lying.

That's the biggest problem I see with many people who argue stuff. You refuse to even acknowledge the other points to refute them. C'mon.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1435?ijkey=de814d67783c996941de8a6752007b1be927aadf&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha

"The evidence base on the efficacy and acceptability of the different types of face mask in preventing respiratory infections during epidemics is sparse and contested."

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charmander6000
11/20/20 1:02:40 PM
#315:


From my experience any legit healthcare professional that's against/neutral on masks gets their messaged twisted by anti-maskers. Most of the time the argument is "with proper engineering and administrative controls there is little need for PPE controls outside of people working directly with patients" or "the limited amount of PPE should be used on people that actually need them"

There's also a very small subset of people that basically say "if people are to stupid to follow administrative controls then they are too stupid to wear a mask properly and may increase their chances of infection due to constantly touching their face"

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Leafeon13N
11/20/20 1:08:53 PM
#316:


First, is important to note that the study looked exclusively at the protective effects of masks for the wearer, and not at the wearers ability to protect others. Second, the trial was conducted in April and May this year, when face mask use was not widespread in Denmark

And beyond that, the results of this cited study were literally that the use of masks had either positive or inconclusive benefit.
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Leafeon13N
11/20/20 1:10:45 PM
#317:


Corrik7 posted...
It takes a simple google for someone to see that you are not being forthright while claiming others are lying.
Also when someone is just outright lying, the proper phrasing is not to say I claim they are lying, it is just that they are lying.
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Leafeon13N
11/20/20 1:13:45 PM
#318:


Both of those articles cite a Danish study, which found possibly a 20% self protection rate with masks. That study had no data on how masks prevented transmission to others.

And you are trying to argue masks are both ineffective and harmful.

That study shows nothing of the sort.
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Corrik7
11/20/20 1:18:05 PM
#319:


Leafeon13N posted...
Both of those articles cite a Danish study, which found possibly a 20% self protection rate with masks. That study had no data on how masks prevented transmission to others.

And you are trying to argue masks are both ineffective and harmful.

That study shows nothing of the sort.
I don't think you read the 2nd article nor used the references.

That said, again,

Corrik7 posted...
We can probably agree the opinions are mixed. Probably quite more say they are effective, but there is definitely a notable amount that disagree.


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Leafeon13N
11/20/20 1:18:59 PM
#320:


Leafeon13N posted...
Both of those articles cite a Danish study, which found possibly a 20% self protection rate with masks. That study had no data on how masks prevented transmission to others.

Oh and if I recall the actual study beyond the quote from the poorly written articles, it was likely a 20 to 40% likely protection rate, they just didn't have enough data to prove this conclusively.
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Leafeon13N
11/20/20 1:23:08 PM
#321:


Corrik are you going to semantics people disagree here?

If we want to get into flat earth level discussion like that let me know.
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Corrik7
11/20/20 1:23:16 PM
#322:


Leafeon13N posted...
Oh and if I recall the actual study beyond the quote from the poorly written articles, it was likely a 20 to 40% likely protection rate, they just didn't have enough data to prove this conclusively.

Close, but no.

"The most important limitation is that the findings are inconclusive, with CIs compatible with a 46% decrease to a 23% increase in infection." It's just the limits of their margin of error. Hence why it was an inconclusive study.

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#323
Post #323 was unavailable or deleted.
#324
Post #324 was unavailable or deleted.
Kinglicious
11/20/20 1:32:38 PM
#325:


It's important to see the reasons for ineffectiveness as opposed to just dismissing. Properly worn, properly handled, should prove some notable value. But different factors can play a role: how old is the mask, how much wear has it had, what materials, how often is it cleaned, is it by someone nearer those infected, etc. Like I can point to some masks I got in the summer that I can obviously tell have lost some effectiveness because they aren't as tight and secure as they used to be. It's not like we've perfected this aspect and the variables can drastically change results.

Still, the main purpose of masks was always protecting others from you, not you yourself.

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Leafeon13N
11/20/20 1:33:39 PM
#326:


Again, you are trying to show masks are ineffective and harmful.

You are linking an article of a poorly done study from April that shows they are more likely to have a positive PERSONAL protection rate.

Your leg is looking real gimpy.
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Corrik7
11/20/20 1:38:57 PM
#327:


Leafeon13N posted...
Again, you are trying to show masks are ineffective and harmful.

You are linking an article of a poorly done study from April that shows they are more likely to have a positive PERSONAL protection rate.

Your leg is looking real gimpy.
I am not trying to show anything besides that differing opinions exist. I linked to one article and another that referenced many different studies to show the results were mixed.

There is not 100% agreement on it. There is a notable chunk that disagree. It has of course not been definitively proven that they work, but we can surmise there is a good likelihood they work. Hence, the second article talks about the precautionary principle. In that, why wouldn't we wear them because at worst they may have been pointless but at best they did help. Thus, we have no real draw back to not wear them.

That said, there is an even smaller contingent that argue that masks are a detriment. However, that is a much smaller opinion.

Also, way to get blasted on your bullshit numbers you stated and get proven wrong... then claim I am on a wobbly leg. lmfao

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Leafeon13N
11/20/20 2:05:39 PM
#328:


So flat earther disagreement semantics. Got it. We can end that level of discussion. Masks work and there isn't any serious science that says otherwise.
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LordoftheMorons
11/20/20 5:16:36 PM
#329:


Corrik FYI Sputnik News is literally Russian state-owned media

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Corrik7
11/20/20 5:29:47 PM
#330:


LordoftheMorons posted...
Corrik FYI Sputnik News is literally Russian state-owned media
Sounds like it.

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hockeydude15
11/20/20 5:33:15 PM
#331:


Ulti would be the person who trusts a doctor who is anti vaccinations, and corrik would be the one who defends it as well.

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red13n
11/20/20 5:42:04 PM
#332:


hockeydude15 posted...
Ulti would be the person who trusts a doctor who is anti vaccinations, and corrik would be the one who defends it as well.

Oh apparently the dude is full QAnon too.

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Corrik7
11/20/20 6:03:44 PM
#333:


hockeydude15 posted...
Ulti would be the person who trusts a doctor who is anti vaccinations, and corrik would be the one who defends it as well.
And you would be the dude who lacks reading comprehension and states everything that is completely wrong? Lmfao.

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Nanis23
11/20/20 7:24:06 PM
#334:


Corrik7 posted...
Glad to hear you are better!

UltimaterializerX posted...
I love you, bro. Glad to see youre doing well.
Thank you both very much!

Also, I am not getting into this mask vs anti mask debate - but i'll just say this
Please don't gamble your life!
Yes, there might be a low chance you will get Covid
And yes, there might even be a lower chance to catch bad symptoms, but just remember this - covid is temporary. Your life is not. If you get a permanent damage to your lungs you will never forgive yourself
So please, take every measure possible to protect yourselves

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wololo
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PerfectChaosZ
11/20/20 7:28:30 PM
#335:


No Corrik, as always, thats you.
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Wanglicious
11/20/20 7:37:47 PM
#336:


Nanis23 posted...


Also, I am not getting into this mask vs anti mask debate - but i'll just say this
Please don't gamble your life!
Yes, there might be a low chance you will get Covid
And yes, there might even be a lower chance to catch bad symptoms, but just remember this - covid is temporary. Your life is not. If you get a permanent damage to your lungs you will never forgive yourself
So please, take every measure possible to protect yourselves

i do feel this is the part people who only look at mortality forget. the disease may have a low rate but the side effects you could be hit with are damning. lung scarring/damage, the loss of smell, the hit to mental faculties/activity, infertility in males. like this can fuck you up bad beyond the virus, so i'm glad you're feeling better.

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Corrik7
11/20/20 7:42:56 PM
#337:


PerfectChaosZ posted...
No Corrik, as always, thats you.
Negative. You can re-read it again though if you wish.


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Corrik7
11/20/20 7:43:44 PM
#338:


Wanglicious posted...
i do feel this is the part people who only look at mortality forget. the disease may have a low rate but the side effects you could be hit with are damning. lung scarring/damage, the loss of smell, the hit to mental faculties/activity, infertility in males. like this can fuck you up bad beyond the virus, so i'm glad you're feeling better.
Yeah, nobody should be like fuck it let me have it. It's why I been all about getting a vaccine as soon as possible. Like, it's just dumb to take the chance with your literal life.

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Mr Lasastryke
11/20/20 8:09:09 PM
#339:


Wanglicious posted...
i do feel this is the part people who only look at mortality forget. the disease may have a low rate but the side effects you could be hit with are damning. lung scarring/damage, the loss of smell, the hit to mental faculties/activity, infertility in males. like this can fuck you up bad beyond the virus, so i'm glad you're feeling better.

good post (and good post by nanis before that as well). there's many things that annoy me about covid debates but few annoy me as much as people going "LOL THE MORTALITY RATE IS 0.00001% WHY SHOULD WE CARE."

a good friend of mine had covid not too long ago. fortunately, he recovered, but the last time i saw him (which was a few weeks after he recovered) he said his sense of smell (and taste i think?) was still screwed up. i hope his body isn't permanently damaged. so yeah, nobody should think that if the disease doesn't result in fucking death, it's automatically not a big deal.

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Ryokles
11/21/20 7:01:00 PM
#340:


Cant wait to get my shot~

cmoooon emergency approval

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Wanglicious
11/21/20 7:14:39 PM
#341:


that'll be a few weeks out, you're basically looking at Jan to Feb depending on the results and opinions from independent bodies. double checked to get a more accurate time table:

Pfizer's meeting with the FDA is December 10th.
they claim to be aiming for 20 million vaccines before the end of the year.
so far all data and results said are from them internally. over the next few weeks the FDA will review the data because right now the numbers and claims are from companies alone. anything found that runs contrary to the claims they've made will, of course, lengthen the process.

there may be some allowance in December but don't even think about it unless you're super old or maybe some hotspot areas and are a doctor or nurse.

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Corrik7
11/22/20 10:59:23 PM
#342:


https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1330683240819138560

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LordoftheMorons
11/23/20 2:57:18 AM
#343:


Data on the Oxford vaccine is in. Very weird:

https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1330779307933790208?s=21

They had two separate protocols, both with two doses a month apart. For the group that received a full dose each time, the vaccine was only 62% effective. The other group received a half dose the first time and a full dose the second time, which was, strangely, much more effective (90%).

In any case, it definitely appears to be worse than the mRNA vaccines (both ~95% effective).

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Wanglicious
11/23/20 3:07:34 AM
#344:


alternatively it's a more accurate telling of the data and is still beyond where we ought to be.

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LordoftheMorons
11/23/20 3:17:09 AM
#345:


90 would work fine. Once you start getting down to like 70 or something though youre in trouble since youd require near-complete participation to get herd immunity.

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Wanglicious
11/23/20 6:00:49 AM
#346:


not what i mean. right now all the numbers given are just company ones is all. Pfizer's set to go to the FDA December 10th and that's when their data will be inspected and analyzed by outside staff. so right now, no way to tell how accurate their claims are.

where we ought to be right now is working towards 50%, so having something pushing 62%, 70% is still quite promising and well ahead of that. if Oxford's claims are accurate but Pfizer/Moderna/whatever thing both Russia and China claim isn't, we're still doing really good time.

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ninkendo
11/23/20 6:20:07 AM
#347:


Wanglicious posted...
there may be some allowance in December but don't even think about it unless you're super old or maybe some hotspot areas and are a doctor or nurse.
oh ya

actually my hospital already sent out an email that they applied for the first wave in December

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Esuriat
11/23/20 1:32:58 PM
#348:


The results from the Oxford/AZ vaccine kind of make sense. People getting the full dose initially are probably developing antibodies to the adenovirus used as a vector rather than just the coronavirus specific proteins. So the half dose is causing less resistance to build and therefore the second dose is far more effective.

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Ryokles
11/23/20 8:16:11 PM
#349:


Wanglicious posted...
that'll be a few weeks out, you're basically looking at Jan to Feb depending on the results and opinions from independent bodies. double checked to get a more accurate time table:

Pfizer's meeting with the FDA is December 10th.
they claim to be aiming for 20 million vaccines before the end of the year.
so far all data and results said are from them internally. over the next few weeks the FDA will review the data because right now the numbers and claims are from companies alone. anything found that runs contrary to the claims they've made will, of course, lengthen the process.

there may be some allowance in December but don't even think about it unless you're super old or maybe some hotspot areas and are a doctor or nurse.
Im a healthcare worker! Word around the hospital is drs and nurses and other patient facing roles will get theirs probably the third week of December. Everyone else will be probably the first week of January. Woooooo

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Wanglicious
11/23/20 8:41:44 PM
#350:


oh nice. wasn't entirely sure if you were but good luck then!
it helps that right now it's 3 different companies claiming similar results, which is freaky. Pfizer first, Moderna second, AstraZeneca third.


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