Board 8 > * GotD 2020 Guru Contest Stats & Discussion - Part One *

Topic List	Page List: 1 ... 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Heropon_Riki 04/18/20 10:41:26 PM #357:	ctesjbuvf posted... And so it seems I did get out of round 2. Ready to die with Three Houses together with I assume quite a few people. The seeding is really unfortunate for me. Three Houses is my third favorite game on the list besides Xenoblade Chronicles and Breath of the Wild, so it's a shame I have to vote against it so early. --- "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) <cite>Heropon_Riki posted [p:937666539] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>ctesjbuvf posted... </cite> <quote>And so it seems I did get out of round 2. Ready to die with Three Houses together with I assume quite a few people.</quote> The seeding is really unfortunate for me. Three Houses is my third favorite game on the list besides Xenoblade Chronicles and Breath of the Wild, so it's a shame I have to vote against it so early. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
HaRRicH 04/18/20 11:11:39 PM #358:	I really didn't think I had a rare bracket outside of Round One! I suppose my Xenoblade pick for a division finalist is keeping me alive...feeling alright there but pretty mixed on my other upsets at this point. --- O P E R A T I O N O U S T : Nominate SHEIK! https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/ssb/images/0/0d/Sheik-Victory3-SSB4.png <cite>HaRRicH posted [p:937667821] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>I really didn't think I had a rare bracket outside of Round One! I suppose my Xenoblade pick for a division finalist is keeping me alive...feeling alright there but pretty mixed on my other upsets at this point. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
gamer man 04/18/20 11:27:41 PM #359:	LeonhartFour posted... it mostly depends on how similar your bracket is to others if you have a rare bracket layout then you can survive for a long time even with a bad score Well that explains the legend supernicedog <cite>gamer man posted [p:937668505] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>LeonhartFour posted... </cite> <quote>it mostly depends on how similar your bracket is to others if you have a rare bracket layout then you can survive for a long time even with a bad score</quote> Well that explains the legend supernicedog </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SuperNiceDog 04/19/20 12:01:12 AM #360:	gamer man posted... Well that explains the legend supernicedog hahaha yeeeeeee! My whole bracket is all in on Persona 5 over Witcher at this point, so I'll survive a long time --- SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs <cite>SuperNiceDog posted [p:937669883] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>gamer man posted... </cite> <quote>Well that explains the legend supernicedog</quote> hahaha yeeeeeee! My whole bracket is all in on Persona 5 over Witcher at this point, so I'll survive a long time </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
azuarc 04/19/20 3:02:14 AM #361:	Top 10 in survival but bottom 10 in points is always a fun goal. --- VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE; <cite>azuarc posted [p:937676407] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Top 10 in survival but bottom 10 in points is always a fun goal. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
chocoboslayer 04/19/20 1:05:16 PM #362:	azuarc posted... Top 10 in survival but bottom 10 in points is always a fun goal. i've pretty much got this on lock each contest --- PotD's OFFICIAL King of Games The Choco. The Cream of Yuna Fanboyism <cite>chocoboslayer posted [p:937693815] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>azuarc posted... </cite> <quote>Top 10 in survival but bottom 10 in points is always a fun goal.</quote>i've pretty much got this on lock each contest </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
NewerShadow 04/19/20 9:52:27 PM #363:	Division 2 eliminations: (DQ11 win) Who eliminates who: BK_Sheikah00 by LordoftheMorons BlAcK TuRtLe by LadyVyxx, Paratroopa1, gamer man Camden by hylianknight3 captaincanadian by COVlD-19 DomaDragoon by a lot foolmoron by COVlD-19 GildedFool by The Mana Sword Keltiq by fpce666 Lightning Strikes by MetalmindStats linid0t by Paratroopa1, gamer man LordOfDabu by Seanchan, fpce666 OrangeCrush980 by AxemRedRanger princeton_boy by puseecat692 SeabassDebeste by Hbthebattle, Keltiq, azuarc, JONALEON1, fpce666 Z1mZum by davidponte <cite>NewerShadow posted [p:937721846] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Division 2 eliminations: (DQ11 win) Who eliminates who: BK_Sheikah00 by LordoftheMoronsBlAcK TuRtLe by LadyVyxx, Paratroopa1, gamer manCamden by hylianknight3captaincanadian by COVlD-19DomaDragoon by a lotfoolmoron by COVlD-19GildedFool by The Mana SwordKeltiq by fpce666Lightning Strikes by MetalmindStatslinid0t by Paratroopa1, gamer manLordOfDabu by Seanchan, fpce666OrangeCrush980 by AxemRedRangerprinceton_boy by puseecat692SeabassDebeste by Hbthebattle, Keltiq, azuarc, JONALEON1, fpce666Z1mZum by davidponte</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Advokaiser 04/19/20 9:58:16 PM #364:	Man, COVID-19 just won't give us a break, even in quarantine! --- It's an honor being part of Board 8's community. <cite>Advokaiser posted [p:937722149] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Man, COVID-19 just won't give us a break, even in quarantine! </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SuperNiceDog 04/19/20 10:11:11 PM #365:	Advokaiser posted... Man, COVID-19 just won't give us a break, even in quarantine! he's a monster --- SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs <cite>SuperNiceDog posted [p:937722754] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Advokaiser posted... </cite> <quote>Man, COVID-19 just won't give us a break, even in quarantine!</quote> he's a monster </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Polycosm 04/19/20 10:52:39 PM #366:	Advokaiser posted... Man, COVID-19 just won't give us a break, even in quarantine! The casualty rate is gonna get real bad if Dark Souls goes deep; there aren't a lot of risks left in that bracket. --- I bow before my emperor, Advokaiser-- winner of the 2018 guru contest. (thengamer.com/guru) <cite>Polycosm posted [p:937724905] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Advokaiser posted... </cite> <quote>Man, COVID-19 just won't give us a break, even in quarantine!</quote>The casualty rate is gonna get real bad if Dark Souls goes deep; there aren't a lot of risks left in that bracket. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
azuarc 04/20/20 1:25:03 AM #367:	So I just spent the last couple hours doing this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qK4NOzPxYNNsuGw10Esrc-KKTGQd6S5kbRywdWE_2oQ/edit#gid=1775137827 The spreadsheet above is supposed to simulate the tournament as though a chosen user is correct for the rest of the bracket. It gives the scores of all the users accordingly. Obviously if you enter a user, and they are not listed first on their own list, they are eliminated. Please let me know if there are errors. I've never shared a spreadsheet before and locked all but a small part of it down, and I'm sure I made some clerical errors since I manually entered all that data. (Anyone who participates in VGMC will tell you how reliable my data entry skills are.) But anyway, I hope this is an interesting tool for those of you wondering how close you are to elimination. It does not, sadly, determine anything preemptively. I'm not trying to take NewerShadow's job. --- VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE; <cite>azuarc posted [p:937731772] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>So I just spent the last couple hours doing this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qK4NOzPxYNNsuGw10Esrc-KKTGQd6S5kbRywdWE_2oQ/edit#gid=1775137827 The spreadsheet above is supposed to simulate the tournament as though a chosen user is correct for the rest of the bracket. It gives the scores of all the users accordingly. Obviously if you enter a user, and they are not listed first on their own list, they are eliminated. Please let me know if there are errors. I've never shared a spreadsheet before and locked all but a small part of it down, and I'm sure I made some clerical errors since I manually entered all that data. (Anyone who participates in VGMC will tell you how reliable my data entry skills are.) But anyway, I hope this is an interesting tool for those of you wondering how close you are to elimination. It does not, sadly, determine anything preemptively. I'm not trying to take NewerShadow's job. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Polycosm 04/20/20 1:57:56 AM #368:	azuarc posted... So I just spent the last couple hours doing this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qK4NOzPxYNNsuGw10Esrc-KKTGQd6S5kbRywdWE_2oQ/edit#gid=1775137827 Dude, this is an awesome tool. --- I bow before my emperor, Advokaiser-- winner of the 2018 guru contest. (thengamer.com/guru) <cite>Polycosm posted [p:937732952] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>azuarc posted... </cite> <quote>So I just spent the last couple hours doing this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qK4NOzPxYNNsuGw10Esrc-KKTGQd6S5kbRywdWE_2oQ/edit#gid=1775137827</quote> Dude, this is an awesome tool. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
azuarc 04/20/20 7:44:10 AM #369:	azuarc posted... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qK4NOzPxYNNsuGw10Esrc-KKTGQd6S5kbRywdWE_2oQ/edit#gid=1775137827 The spreadsheet above is supposed to simulate the tournament as though a chosen user is correct for the rest of the bracket. It gives the scores of all the users accordingly. Obviously if you enter a user, and they are not listed first on their own list, they are eliminated. Please let me know if there are errors. I've never shared a spreadsheet before and locked all but a small part of it down, and I'm sure I made some clerical errors since I manually entered all that data. (Anyone who participates in VGMC will tell you how reliable my data entry skills are.) Woke up this morning inspired to add on to this. Now you can also pick specific results for specific matches. I didn't really do it the "right" way, as someone who once studied computer science, and exotic results aren't available, but hopefully I didn't screw anything up. --- VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE; <cite>azuarc posted [p:937740618] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>azuarc posted... </cite> <quote>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qK4NOzPxYNNsuGw10Esrc-KKTGQd6S5kbRywdWE_2oQ/edit#gid=1775137827 The spreadsheet above is supposed to simulate the tournament as though a chosen user is correct for the rest of the bracket. It gives the scores of all the users accordingly. Obviously if you enter a user, and they are not listed first on their own list, they are eliminated. Please let me know if there are errors. I've never shared a spreadsheet before and locked all but a small part of it down, and I'm sure I made some clerical errors since I manually entered all that data. (Anyone who participates in VGMC will tell you how reliable my data entry skills are.)</quote> Woke up this morning inspired to add on to this. Now you can also pick specific results for specific matches. I didn't really do it the "right" way, as someone who once studied computer science, and exotic results aren't available, but hopefully I didn't screw anything up. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
davidponte 04/20/20 8:59:29 AM #370:	Alright, I've inputted various results for the remaining matches, with the guaranteed winners staying constant and then going back and forth on all of the debated matches to see if it makes a difference. On the top of the bracket, I see no way in which @MetalmindStats doesn't win at this point. I am very likely going to come in second or tied for second. This assumes no major upsets like Zelda losing, and also assumes that Witcher beats Skyrim. Oddly enough, nothing else really matters, again, barring some theoretical upsets. The Bloodborne/RE2 match doesn't change things, regardless if the winner then wins the division. Xenoblade/Fire Emblem also doesn't matter. Even GTA/Xenoblade doesn't affect the top. The only matches that DO matter are GTA/P4G and ME2/Bloodborne/RE2. If P4G and/or ME2 win those matches, then someone else wins other than @MetalmindStats or myself, and neither of us are in second. The only way I come in first, given all those other results, is if TLOU beats Dark Souls, which isn't happening. So I'm essentially playing for second at this point. Please correct me if I'm wrong! Again, I didn't take into account the upset that definitely won't happen, and only looked at the contested matches. --- The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. <cite>davidponte posted [p:937742695] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Alright, I've inputted various results for the remaining matches, with the guaranteed winners staying constant and then going back and forth on all of the debated matches to see if it makes a difference. On the top of the bracket, I see no way in which @MetalmindStats doesn't win at this point. I am very likely going to come in second or tied for second. This assumes no major upsets like Zelda losing, and also assumes that Witcher beats Skyrim. Oddly enough, nothing else really matters, again, barring some theoretical upsets. The Bloodborne/RE2 match doesn't change things, regardless if the winner then wins the division. Xenoblade/Fire Emblem also doesn't matter. Even GTA/Xenoblade doesn't affect the top. The only matches that DO matter are GTA/P4G and ME2/Bloodborne/RE2. If P4G and/or ME2 win those matches, then someone else wins other than @MetalmindStats or myself, and neither of us are in second. The only way I come in first, given all those other results, is if TLOU beats Dark Souls, which isn't happening. So I'm essentially playing for second at this point. Please correct me if I'm wrong! Again, I didn't take into account the upset that definitely won't happen, and only looked at the contested matches. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
davidponte 04/20/20 9:06:11 AM #371:	Forgot to add: The HGSS/NieR match also matters. If Pokemon wins and everything else is constant, azuarc goes into second and I fall to 3rd. If Pokemon wins then Bloodborne wins its division, we find the third scenario where neither MetalmindStats or myself wins. --- The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. <cite>davidponte posted [p:937742924] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Forgot to add: The HGSS/NieR match also matters. If Pokemon wins and everything else is constant, azuarc goes into second and I fall to 3rd. If Pokemon wins then Bloodborne wins its division, we find the third scenario where neither MetalmindStats or myself wins. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
handsomeboy2012 04/20/20 9:16:20 AM #372:	Well this is more confirmation that I have zero chance <cite>handsomeboy2012 posted [p:937743237] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Well this is more confirmation that I have zero chance </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
squexa 04/20/20 9:54:30 AM #373:	davidponte posted... Alright, I've inputted various results for the remaining matches, with the guaranteed winners staying constant and then going back and forth on all of the debated matches to see if it makes a difference. On the top of the bracket, I see no way in which @MetalmindStats doesn't win at this point. I am very likely going to come in second or tied for second. This assumes no major upsets like Zelda losing, and also assumes that Witcher beats Skyrim. Oddly enough, nothing else really matters, again, barring some theoretical upsets. The Bloodborne/RE2 match doesn't change things, regardless if the winner then wins the division. Xenoblade/Fire Emblem also doesn't matter. Even GTA/Xenoblade doesn't affect the top. The only matches that DO matter are GTA/P4G and ME2/Bloodborne/RE2. If P4G and/or ME2 win those matches, then someone else wins other than @MetalmindStats or myself, and neither of us are in second. The only way I come in first, given all those other results, is if TLOU beats Dark Souls, which isn't happening. So I'm essentially playing for second at this point. Please correct me if I'm wrong! Again, I didn't take into account the upset that definitely won't happen, and only looked at the contested matches. Eh, I'd say Smash/Odyssey and Dark Souls/Skyrim are definitely contested matches right now and not complete moonshot upsets. --- congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru <cite>squexa posted [p:937744525] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>davidponte posted... </cite> <quote>Alright, I've inputted various results for the remaining matches, with the guaranteed winners staying constant and then going back and forth on all of the debated matches to see if it makes a difference. On the top of the bracket, I see no way in which @MetalmindStats doesn't win at this point. I am very likely going to come in second or tied for second. This assumes no major upsets like Zelda losing, and also assumes that Witcher beats Skyrim. Oddly enough, nothing else really matters, again, barring some theoretical upsets. The Bloodborne/RE2 match doesn't change things, regardless if the winner then wins the division. Xenoblade/Fire Emblem also doesn't matter. Even GTA/Xenoblade doesn't affect the top. The only matches that DO matter are GTA/P4G and ME2/Bloodborne/RE2. If P4G and/or ME2 win those matches, then someone else wins other than @MetalmindStats or myself, and neither of us are in second. The only way I come in first, given all those other results, is if TLOU beats Dark Souls, which isn't happening. So I'm essentially playing for second at this point. Please correct me if I'm wrong! Again, I didn't take into account the upset that definitely won't happen, and only looked at the contested matches.</quote> Eh, I'd say Smash/Odyssey and Dark Souls/Skyrim are definitely contested matches right now and not complete moonshot upsets. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
davidponte 04/20/20 10:01:07 AM #374:	squexa posted... Eh, I'd say Smash/Odyssey and Dark Souls/Skyrim are definitely contested matches right now and not complete moonshot upsets. Smash/Odyssey doesn't change too much other than gravy becoming the winner, metalmind falling to 2nd, azuarc going to 3rd, and me falling to 4th, so that one also doesn't shake things up too much other than the overall winner (which is a big deal, I'll give you that). This also assumes that it goes on to beat the Div 4 winner. That's also probably the more likely of your two mentioned upsets. Dark Souls > Skyrim would massively change things, though. Again, assuming that result happens and we don't have the GTA/P4G or ME2 match go the other way. --- The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. <cite>davidponte posted [p:937744794] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>squexa posted... </cite> <quote>Eh, I'd say Smash/Odyssey and Dark Souls/Skyrim are definitely contested matches right now and not complete moonshot upsets.</quote> Smash/Odyssey doesn't change too much other than gravy becoming the winner, metalmind falling to 2nd, azuarc going to 3rd, and me falling to 4th, so that one also doesn't shake things up too much other than the overall winner (which is a big deal, I'll give you that). This also assumes that it goes on to beat the Div 4 winner. That's also probably the more likely of your two mentioned upsets. Dark Souls > Skyrim would massively change things, though. Again, assuming that result happens and we don't have the GTA/P4G or ME2 match go the other way. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
azuarc 04/20/20 10:34:40 AM #375:	Keep in mind, if you're looking at the sheet, that you can leave the setting on contested matches to "unspecified" and then float between different user profiles. Also, if you want to use the cookie, plug in Master Moltar. --- VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE; <cite>azuarc posted [p:937746287] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Keep in mind, if you're looking at the sheet, that you can leave the setting on contested matches to "unspecified" and then float between different user profiles. Also, if you want to use the cookie, plug in Master Moltar. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
squexa 04/20/20 10:50:34 AM #376:	azuarc posted... So I just spent the last couple hours doing this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qK4NOzPxYNNsuGw10Esrc-KKTGQd6S5kbRywdWE_2oQ/edit#gid=1775137827 The spreadsheet above is supposed to simulate the tournament as though a chosen user is correct for the rest of the bracket. It gives the scores of all the users accordingly. Obviously if you enter a user, and they are not listed first on their own list, they are eliminated. Please let me know if there are errors. I've never shared a spreadsheet before and locked all but a small part of it down, and I'm sure I made some clerical errors since I manually entered all that data. (Anyone who participates in VGMC will tell you how reliable my data entry skills are.) But anyway, I hope this is an interesting tool for those of you wondering how close you are to elimination. It does not, sadly, determine anything preemptively. I'm not trying to take NewerShadow's job. Thanks for the spreadsheet! Ugh I might get eliminated by Ngamer soon. --- congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru <cite>squexa posted [p:937746917] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>azuarc posted... </cite> <quote>So I just spent the last couple hours doing this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qK4NOzPxYNNsuGw10Esrc-KKTGQd6S5kbRywdWE_2oQ/edit#gid=1775137827 The spreadsheet above is supposed to simulate the tournament as though a chosen user is correct for the rest of the bracket. It gives the scores of all the users accordingly. Obviously if you enter a user, and they are not listed first on their own list, they are eliminated. Please let me know if there are errors. I've never shared a spreadsheet before and locked all but a small part of it down, and I'm sure I made some clerical errors since I manually entered all that data. (Anyone who participates in VGMC will tell you how reliable my data entry skills are.) But anyway, I hope this is an interesting tool for those of you wondering how close you are to elimination. It does not, sadly, determine anything preemptively. I'm not trying to take NewerShadow's job.</quote> Thanks for the spreadsheet! Ugh I might get eliminated by Ngamer soon. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Safer_777 04/20/20 11:41:39 AM #377:	So Black Turtle eliminates me? I guess I should feel proud or something. --- So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? <cite>Safer_777 posted [p:937749309] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>So Black Turtle eliminates me? I guess I should feel proud or something. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
TsunamiXXVIII 04/20/20 2:07:09 PM #378:	SuperNiceDog posted... thanks, I don't know how I'm still alive either I know how I'm still alive...I just don't know why. Actually, that's not true. I just checked the other three brackets with SMG2 in the final, and there are enough other differences in those brackets that the picks I actually believe in would be enough to potentially get me ahead of them if my bracket looked more like I wanted it to. Still have no f**ing idea why I picked Arkham City over The Last of Us, though, a mistake compounded by picking it again over Dark Souls (which would of course be wrong, but that's just a garden-variety wrong pick, not a "wait, I picked what?" pick). --- Also known as Cyberchao X. <cite>TsunamiXXVIII posted [p:937757479] in GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>SuperNiceDog posted... </cite> <quote>thanks, I don't know how I'm still alive either</quote> I know how I'm still alive...I just don't know why. Actually, that's not true. I just checked the other three brackets with SMG2 in the final, and there are enough other differences in those brackets that the picks I actually believe in would be enough to potentially get me ahead of them if my bracket looked more like I wanted it to. Still have no f***ing idea why I picked Arkham City over The Last of Us, though, a mistake compounded by picking it again over Dark Souls (which would of course be wrong, but that's just a garden-variety wrong pick, not a "wait, I picked what?" pick). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
transience 04/20/20 2:58:09 PM #379:	I spent some time with azuarc's tool (great job!) and it seems like about 2/3rds of brackets are eliminated if you make some really safe assumptions about the bracket. --- xyzzy <cite>transience posted [p:937760509] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>I spent some time with azuarc's tool (great job!) and it seems like about 2/3rds of brackets are eliminated if you make some really safe assumptions about the bracket. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
charmander6000 04/20/20 3:23:03 PM #380:	Makes sense, having a long lasting bracket doesn't mean you have a good bracket, especially when later round picks are worth so much. --- Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 112/128 Today's Picks: LoZ: BotW, DQXI <cite>charmander6000 posted [p:937761889] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Makes sense, having a long lasting bracket doesn't mean you have a good bracket, especially when later round picks are worth so much. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
azuarc 04/20/20 3:52:00 PM #381:	transience posted... I spent some time with azuarc's tool (great job!) and it seems like about 2/3rds of brackets are eliminated if you make some really safe assumptions about the bracket. Thank you. And if you reduce bracket permutations to only the five most contested matches remaining -- and I suspect there aren't actually more than that -- that only leaves 32 arrangements for the bracket to unfold. Some of those probably belong to the same people, so I suspect the number of theoretical winners from this point forward is probably closer to 20. Everyone else is just hanging on due to some arcane combination of implausible results, including perhaps something absurd like BotW losing to FFXV to clear the way for a GTA5 victory. --- VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE; <cite>azuarc posted [p:937763549] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>transience posted... </cite> <quote>I spent some time with azuarc's tool (great job!) and it seems like about 2/3rds of brackets are eliminated if you make some really safe assumptions about the bracket.</quote> Thank you. And if you reduce bracket permutations to only the five most contested matches remaining -- and I suspect there aren't actually more than that -- that only leaves 32 arrangements for the bracket to unfold. Some of those probably belong to the same people, so I suspect the number of theoretical winners from this point forward is probably closer to 20. Everyone else is just hanging on due to some arcane combination of implausible results, including perhaps something absurd like BotW losing to FFXV to clear the way for a GTA5 victory. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Bossman_Coolguy 04/20/20 3:52:21 PM #382:	ah crap rallyfaqs means smash easily beats super mario --- "you're the real hotdogger, bossman_coolguy" - meisnewbie, paraphrased "Gravy is quite possibly a legit total nutjob." - corrik7 <cite>Bossman_Coolguy posted [p:937763569] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>ah crap rallyfaqs means smash easily beats super mario </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Advokaiser 04/20/20 4:39:15 PM #383:	So basically I need TLOU > Dark Souls, and Skyrim > Witcher, to win. I mean, there's a possibility, but unlikeliness overrides me. Edit: Actually, the only one I need is Skyrim > Witcher. Wow. --- It's an honor being part of Board 8's community. <cite>Advokaiser posted [p:937766199] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>So basically I need TLOU > Dark Souls, and Skyrim > Witcher, to win. I mean, there's a possibility, but unlikeliness overrides me. Edit: Actually, the only one I need is Skyrim > Witcher. Wow. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MetalmindStats 04/20/20 7:39:39 PM #384:	Great work on your sheet, azuarc! (And davidponte with your distillation of likely scenarios that wouldn't have been massive upsets pre-contest.) I didn't expect to somehow be the most likely Guru winner from where we're standing right now, but I guess we'll see if that can last. I'm wary about a bunch of these upcoming matches, especially Dark Souls v Skyrim. --- "I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do." You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you! <cite>MetalmindStats posted [p:937775927] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Great work on your sheet, azuarc! (And davidponte with your distillation of likely scenarios that wouldn't have been massive upsets pre-contest.) I didn't expect to somehow be the most likely Guru winner from where we're standing right now, but I guess we'll see if that can last. I'm wary about a bunch of these upcoming matches, especially Dark Souls v Skyrim. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
HaRRicH 04/20/20 8:24:33 PM #385:	Of course you're a favorite to win. You were a Metal Man. --- O P E R A T I O N O U S T : Nominate SHEIK! https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/ssb/images/0/0d/Sheik-Victory3-SSB4.png <cite>HaRRicH posted [p:937778430] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Of course you're a favorite to win. You were a Metal Man. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
azuarc 04/20/20 10:08:48 PM #386:	With a name like MetalmindStats, clearly he keeps all the records of contest results in his feruchemical rings. --- VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE; <cite>azuarc posted [p:937784055] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>With a name like MetalmindStats, clearly he keeps all the records of contest results in his feruchemical rings. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ngamer64 04/21/20 1:15:43 AM #387:	Ouch, rough day to be a fool! squexa posted... Thanks for the spreadsheet! Ugh I might get eliminated by Ngamer soon. It will be an honor! --- Advo bested even The Show hosts in 2018, yowza! board8.wikia.com \| thengamer.com/xstats <cite>Ngamer64 posted [p:937792810] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Ouch, rough day to be a fool! squexa posted... </cite> <quote>Thanks for the spreadsheet! Ugh I might get eliminated by Ngamer soon.</quote>It will be an honor! </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ngamer64 04/21/20 1:50:28 AM #388:	After looking it over in the tool (which is wonderful BTW!), I'm actually shocked what a strong position I'm still in. Of course I need Witcher 3 > Dark Souls > Skyrim, but if that works out for me I can absorb both GTA5 > Persona 4 AND my Portal 2 to win the division pick not working out. Alternatively, if Portal does get there, I've got enough of a cushion that I wouldn't need Xeno to get out of its division. Pretty sweet! --- Advo bested even The Show hosts in 2018, yowza! board8.wikia.com \| thengamer.com/xstats <cite>Ngamer64 posted [p:937794007] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>After looking it over in the tool (which is wonderful BTW!), I'm actually shocked what a strong position I'm still in. Of course I need Witcher 3 > Dark Souls > Skyrim, but if that works out for me I can absorb both GTA5 > Persona 4 AND my Portal 2 to win the division pick not working out. Alternatively, if Portal does get there, I've got enough of a cushion that I wouldn't need Xeno to get out of its division. Pretty sweet! </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SuperNiceDog 04/21/20 4:13:30 AM #389:	Guru update for Day 22(?): I'm moving on up, 94th now --- SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs <cite>SuperNiceDog posted [p:937798024] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Guru update for Day 22(?): I'm moving on up, 94th now </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SuperNiceDog 04/21/20 4:14:11 AM #390:	so @MetalmindStats is the likeliest winner from here on out? --- SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs <cite>SuperNiceDog posted [p:937798036] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>so @MetalmindStats is the likeliest winner from here on out? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ctesjbuvf 04/21/20 4:33:28 AM #391:	I think I consider azuarc himself the most likely, then LightningStrikes. They both have Witcher > Skyrim. azuarc wins if just one of Xenoblade > GTAV and HGSS > NieR happens (assuming cookie cutter for the rest) while LightningStrikes wins if both of those two are the other way around, still going cookie cutter the rest of the way. MetalmindStats has to hope for RE2 > ME2 and I find it more likely ME2 wins that one. Though should it happen, he wins regardless of the above two matches. That's assuming nothing else gets out of division 4. If HGSS > NieR happens, he needs GTAV > P4G even if Xenoblade wins the division to not lose to... azuarc again. Yeah, I think I like azuarc's chances the most. --- Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. <cite>ctesjbuvf posted [p:937798503] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>I think I consider azuarc himself the most likely, then LightningStrikes. They both have Witcher > Skyrim. azuarc wins if just one of Xenoblade > GTAV and HGSS > NieR happens (assuming cookie cutter for the rest) while LightningStrikes wins if both of those two are the other way around, still going cookie cutter the rest of the way. MetalmindStats has to hope for RE2 > ME2 and I find it more likely ME2 wins that one. Though should it happen, he wins regardless of the above two matches. That's assuming nothing else gets out of division 4. If HGSS > NieR happens, he needs GTAV > P4G even if Xenoblade wins the division to not lose to... azuarc again. Yeah, I think I like azuarc's chances the most. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DoomTheGyarados 04/21/20 4:40:07 AM #392:	RE2 has to survive this match first! --- Sir Chris Doom The Kanto Saga - Animated Series - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hH4wNFCrLM <cite>DoomTheGyarados posted [p:937798657] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>RE2 has to survive this match first! </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ctesjbuvf 04/21/20 4:50:34 AM #393:	True. If that happens, MetalmindStats needs GTAV > P4G and BB > ME2 plus one of GTAV > Xenoblade and NieR > HGSS to beat azuarc. azuarc wins in most other likely cases here, but if GTAV wins the division, BB doesn't and NieR beats Pokemon, LightningStrikes is on top again. --- Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. <cite>ctesjbuvf posted [p:937798913] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>True. If that happens, MetalmindStats needs GTAV > P4G and BB > ME2 plus one of GTAV > Xenoblade and NieR > HGSS to beat azuarc. azuarc wins in most other likely cases here, but if GTAV wins the division, BB doesn't and NieR beats Pokemon, LightningStrikes is on top again. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
GildedFool 04/21/20 5:58:36 AM #394:	Ngamer64 posted... Ouch, rough day to be a fool! It will be an honor! ...and yet! The tide may still be held at bay. --- https://i.imgtc.com/tP0gkiQ.png <cite>GildedFool posted [p:937800362] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Ngamer64 posted... </cite> <quote>Ouch, rough day to be a fool! It will be an honor!</quote>...and yet! The tide may still be held at bay. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
_SecretSquirrel 04/21/20 6:18:40 AM #395:	Ringworm bwburke94 Gall linkhatesganon captaincanadian Paratroopa1 gamer man SeabassDebeste Big Bob Bartzyx Seginustemple WiggumFan267 Tirofog LordoftheMorons foolmoron Haste2 Here are the Sweet 16 that went for blood, but there are three bolded names that may end up hitting the jackpot here in the division finals. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2020 Guru contest winner. <cite>_SecretSquirrel posted [p:937800800] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Ringworm bwburke94 Gall linkhatesganon captaincanadian Paratroopa1 gamer man SeabassDebeste Big Bob Bartzyx Seginustemple WiggumFan267 Tirofog LordoftheMorons foolmoron Haste2 Here are the Sweet 16 that went for blood, but there are three bolded names that may end up hitting the jackpot here in the division finals. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
tennisboy213 04/21/20 6:23:09 AM #396:	I had BB winning this match before switching to RE2 > FE:A <cite>tennisboy213 posted [p:937800904] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>I had BB winning this match before switching to RE2 > FE:A </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ringworm 04/21/20 6:34:10 AM #397:	_SecretSquirrel posted... Ringworm bwburke94 Gall linkhatesganon captaincanadian Paratroopa1 gamer man SeabassDebeste Big Bob Bartzyx Seginustemple WiggumFan267 Tirofog LordoftheMorons foolmoron Haste2 Here are the Sweet 16 that went for blood, but there are three bolded names that may end up hitting the jackpot here in the division finals. Kinda regretting having ME2>BB as the division final right now, but hopefully that's still 4 pts better off than most. --- ~ Ringworm ~ Congrats to Advokaiser - Guru champion - CBX <cite>Ringworm posted [p:937801117] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>_SecretSquirrel posted... </cite> <quote>Ringworm bwburke94 Gall linkhatesganon captaincanadian Paratroopa1 gamer man SeabassDebeste Big Bob Bartzyx Seginustemple WiggumFan267 Tirofog LordoftheMorons foolmoron Haste2 Here are the Sweet 16 that went for blood, but there are three bolded names that may end up hitting the jackpot here in the division finals.</quote>Kinda regretting having ME2>BB as the division final right now, but hopefully that's still 4 pts better off than most. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 04/21/20 7:20:56 AM #398:	So I can win the guru, if GTA can win a clutch match. How poetic. Either way I should at least get a nice placement and I have the best shot since I was robbed 12 years ago. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh Advokaiser <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:937802166] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>So I can win the guru, if GTA can win a clutch match. How poetic. Either way I should at least get a nice placement and I have the best shot since I was robbed 12 years ago. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
AxemRedRanger 04/21/20 7:27:37 AM #399:	What happened 12 years ago? --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO Advokaiser NO PEACE] <cite>AxemRedRanger posted [p:937802292] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>What happened 12 years ago? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
davidponte 04/21/20 7:28:58 AM #400:	Unspeakable horrors --- The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. <cite>davidponte posted [p:937802325] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Unspeakable horrors </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ringworm 04/21/20 8:32:04 AM #401:	Ringworm posted... Kinda regretting having ME2>BB as the division final right now, but hopefully that's still 4 pts better off than most. Going to need to rely on more rally attempts at this rate to even get BB to win this round, RE2 has it at this rate. --- ~ Ringworm ~ Congrats to Advokaiser - Guru champion - CBX <cite>Ringworm posted [p:937804025] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>Ringworm posted... </cite> <quote>Kinda regretting having ME2>BB as the division final right now, but hopefully that's still 4 pts better off than most.</quote>Going to need to rely on more rally attempts at this rate to even get BB to win this round, RE2 has it at this rate. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 04/21/20 9:37:05 AM #402:	AxemRedRanger posted... What happened 12 years ago? I looked all set to win the guru after a string of correct Kirby picks and a round 3 Mewtwo pick that was the biggest surprise of the contest, I just needed Vincent to come second in the quarterfinals ahead of Crono, which would be a ticket to the finals for whoever won as the following semifinal was a Nintendo SFF-fest with Link, Mario, and Samus (wait a minute...). This was of course following on from Vincent getting effectively the same result on Crono the year before. So the match happens, its tight between Vincent and Crono but by the end of it Crono looks spent, Vincent is 200 votes ahead with 50 minutes to go, it is effectively all over. Then Crono starts getting massive updates out of nowhere, significantly better than Link was getting at the same time, and worth over 60% on Samus despite the fact that she was easily winning the match. There were I believe no known new rallies to explain this. Crono takes second place with five minutes left in the match and gets through to the semifinals then finals, eliminating me. It was extremely suspicious, and even Cronos supporters basically admitted it was unlikely to be legit - CT had a history in this regard at this time. We also never got a statement on the legitimacy of this result. The one bit of solace was Snake coming in second in the finals as I had Cloud - but if Vincent had been there it is possible that Cloud would have come in second place as he only needed 1.4% and Im sure hed do better with Vincent there than Crono - in fact I used that logic when making my bracket! Basically there were blatant CT shenanigans that killed my only legit shot at the guru... until now! --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh Advokaiser <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:937806373] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>AxemRedRanger posted... </cite> <quote>What happened 12 years ago?</quote> I looked all set to win the guru after a string of correct Kirby picks and a round 3 Mewtwo pick that was the biggest surprise of the contest, I just needed Vincent to come second in the quarterfinals ahead of Crono, which would be a ticket to the finals for whoever won as the following semifinal was a Nintendo SFF-fest with Link, Mario, and Samus (wait a minute...). This was of course following on from Vincent getting effectively the same result on Crono the year before. So the match happens, its tight between Vincent and Crono but by the end of it Crono looks spent, Vincent is 200 votes ahead with 50 minutes to go, it is effectively all over. Then Crono starts getting massive updates out of nowhere, significantly better than Link was getting at the same time, and worth over 60% on Samus despite the fact that she was easily winning the match. There were I believe no known new rallies to explain this. Crono takes second place with five minutes left in the match and gets through to the semifinals then finals, eliminating me. It was extremely suspicious, and even Cronos supporters basically admitted it was unlikely to be legit - CT had a history in this regard at this time. We also never got a statement on the legitimacy of this result. The one bit of solace was Snake coming in second in the finals as I had Cloud - but if Vincent had been there it is possible that Cloud would have come in second place as he only needed 1.4% and Im sure hed do better with Vincent there than Crono - in fact I used that logic when making my bracket! Basically there were blatant CT shenanigans that killed my only legit shot at the guru... until now! </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
AxemRedRanger 04/21/20 10:43:36 AM #403:	So a sudden fishy final hour crono "rally" ruined your chances huh. Yeah, that would suck. That it happened to a guy named Lightning Strikes is kind of funny though. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO Advokaiser NO PEACE] <cite>AxemRedRanger posted [p:937809381] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>So a sudden fishy final hour crono "rally" ruined your chances huh. Yeah, that would suck. That it happened to a guy named Lightning Strikes is kind of funny though. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 04/21/20 10:50:30 AM #404:	There is a distinct possibility of me being scuppered by a Tetsuya Takahashi game with a last minute "rally" if Xenoblade does that to GTA haha. Lightning would strike twice. Nah but I think azuarc will take it as Xenoblade just looks too good. I'm fairly bullish on GTAV's strength based on everything we've seen but Xenoblade has looked fantastic so far. I'll still be voting for it since it's one of my games of the decade too! --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh Advokaiser <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:937809694] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>There is a distinct possibility of me being scuppered by a Tetsuya Takahashi game with a last minute "rally" if Xenoblade does that to GTA haha. Lightning would strike twice. Nah but I think azuarc will take it as Xenoblade just looks too good. I'm fairly bullish on GTAV's strength based on everything we've seen but Xenoblade has looked fantastic so far. I'll still be voting for it since it's one of my games of the decade too! </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
scaryice 04/21/20 11:14:39 AM #405:	There's been so many weird Chrono Trigger results over the years, makes me wonder if there's just one dude who's been stuffing for it constantly over the last 20 years. --- Congrats to Advokaiser, the new Guru champ! <cite>scaryice posted [p:937810872] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>There's been so many weird Chrono Trigger results over the years, makes me wonder if there's just one dude who's been stuffing for it constantly over the last 20 years. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
gamer man 04/21/20 11:31:16 AM #406:	_SecretSquirrel posted... Ringworm bwburke94 Gall linkhatesganon captaincanadian Paratroopa1 gamer man SeabassDebeste Big Bob Bartzyx Seginustemple WiggumFan267 Tirofog LordoftheMorons foolmoron Haste2 Here are the Sweet 16 that went for blood, but there are three bolded names that may end up hitting the jackpot here in the division finals. Cmon BB <cite>gamer man posted [p:937811775] in * GotD 202... [t:78525056]...</cite> <quote>_SecretSquirrel posted... </cite> <quote>Ringworm bwburke94 Gall linkhatesganon captaincanadian Paratroopa1 gamer man SeabassDebeste Big Bob Bartzyx Seginustemple WiggumFan267 Tirofog LordoftheMorons foolmoron Haste2 Here are the Sweet 16 that went for blood, but there are three bolded names that may end up hitting the jackpot here in the division finals.</quote> Cmon BB </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Board 8 > * GotD 2020 Guru Contest Stats & Discussion - Part One * (+) Yeah! (+)

Board 8 > * GotD 2020 Guru Contest Stats & Discussion - Part One *