Board 8 > * GotD 2020 Guru Contest Stats & Discussion - Part One *

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Cavedweller2000
04/09/20 7:23:03 AM
#154:


Sorry, was initially confused as to how I could have eliminated swirldude then realised he had Nier over Pokemon.

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Well done to Advokaiser for finishing 104 places above me in the 2018 CBX Guru Contest!
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swirIdude
04/09/20 10:46:19 AM
#155:


Aww yes my day of reckoning is approaching!

The way things are going, I will be eliminated before Nier/Pokemon HGSS happens.

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Advokaiser picked Cloud in Guru and rained on my bracket.
At least I finished 20th overall!
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Ngamer64
04/09/20 2:21:46 PM
#156:


Gall posted...


Batman vs. Xenoblade 2: I said it about Bastion and Octopath, and I'll say it again: Xenoblade's being underrated.
Was still a good upset to try for, Xeno 2's doing 10% better than I expected!


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Advo bested even The Show hosts in 2018, yowza!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
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Advokaiser
04/09/20 4:57:36 PM
#157:


Wow Mario Kart 8 is the Guru choice to win two rounds?! I thought that was my upset special!

Didn't know UC4/MK8 was so one-sided.

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ZeldaTPLink
04/09/20 5:23:32 PM
#158:


Advokaiser posted...
Wow Mario Kart 8 is the Guru choice to win two rounds?! I thought that was my upset special!

Didn't know UC4/MK8 was so one-sided.

Fun fact: picking an uspset special three weeks before the bracket closes risks that upset turning into the cookie while you're not looking.
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Leonhart4
04/09/20 5:26:31 PM
#159:


It's also hard to have upsets in contests like this when you're doing a breakdown of the contest since a lot of people follow your lead when they're unsure.

I started MEWTWO IS A FRAUD expecting that to be a highly debated match and then Tifa became the big favorite!

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Safer_777
04/09/20 5:33:50 PM
#160:


Well Mario Kart has Mario on it so it is automatically high tier here.

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SuperNiceDog
04/09/20 7:49:13 PM
#161:


I'm still in last place wooo! can I get a reverse medal? like a dog food bag?

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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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davidponte
04/09/20 7:51:40 PM
#162:


Have you tried not being in last place?

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The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history.
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transcience
04/09/20 7:57:43 PM
#163:


yeah, I expected UC4 to be the Guru fave and was surprised when it wasnt. I thought about it for another 5 seconds and was like oh right, Nintendo fear.

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add the c and back away
iphonesience
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Bossman_Coolguy
04/09/20 8:23:55 PM
#165:


yeah baby

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"you're the real hotdogger, bossman_coolguy" - meisnewbie, paraphrased
"Gravy is quite possibly a legit total nutjob." - corrik7
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SuperNiceDog
04/09/20 8:46:34 PM
#166:


mk8 doing good

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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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SuperNiceDog
04/09/20 8:47:50 PM
#167:


Here's the current top 38 after Day 13 of the Guru contest! About half way through...




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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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azuarc
04/09/20 9:09:11 PM
#168:


Top 9. Top 7 assuming Rayman loses to Celeste.

And then I get to watch it all burn if Hollow Knight can't win the first day of R2.

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VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE;
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Bossman_Coolguy
04/09/20 9:20:35 PM
#170:


i believe in hollow knight

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"you're the real hotdogger, bossman_coolguy" - meisnewbie, paraphrased
"Gravy is quite possibly a legit total nutjob." - corrik7
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Gall
04/10/20 2:32:32 PM
#171:


Well, Xenoblade > Batman didn't work out, but I don't feel so bad about it. Xenoblade kept it respectably close, and I like Arkham City so it's nice to see it get a win. Losing 3 points hurts, but it's not the end of the world. Let's see how my Uncharted to round 3 pick is doing... oh.

I guess those 22 million sales on Switch actually did something. Or Uncharted is just garbage now.
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Advokaiser
04/10/20 4:38:29 PM
#172:


Gall posted...
Well, Xenoblade > Batman didn't work out, but I don't feel so bad about it. Xenoblade kept it respectably close, and I like Arkham City so it's nice to see it get a win. Losing 3 points hurts, but it's not the end of the world. Let's see how my Uncharted to round 3 pick is doing... oh.

I guess those 22 million sales on Switch actually did something. Or Uncharted is just garbage now.

Gall, you've had some amazing calls this contest especially considering how new you are and it definitely has shown on the results. Keep it up! I'm looking forward to seeing how far you can get here.

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Kotetsu534
04/10/20 4:48:24 PM
#173:


TRE and I have a pretty cool direct elimination fight coming up in R2. We only have 4 different picks from now to the end up the contest and they are all in R2. Currently I am one point up. The differences are:

TRE has Sekiro, I have MonHun.
TRE has Shovel Knight, I have Undertale (lol).
TRE has Read Dead Redemption, I have Xenoblade Chronicles.
TRE has Sonic Mania, I have Super Meat Boy.

So I need to win 2 of the 3 where I have a chance above to survive (I don't think it makes any difference if Shovel Knight wins or loses).

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Abound with so much information
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LeonhartFour
04/10/20 4:51:05 PM
#174:


well I am rooting for TRE in 3 out of 4 of those matches
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Team Rocket Elite
04/10/20 4:53:45 PM
#175:


RIP my bracket. I'm losing 3 of them and Shovel Knight doesn't matter.
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Link isn't the only one who kicks ass.
Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest!
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azuarc
04/10/20 5:00:32 PM
#176:


Wait, Red Dead-Xenoblade's not round 2. That's my division finals.

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VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE;
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Kotetsu534
04/10/20 5:02:31 PM
#177:


Oh wait, it's Persona 4 Golden I have in that round! Will edit.

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Abound with so much information
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Gall
04/10/20 5:21:42 PM
#178:


Advokaiser posted...
Gall, you've had some amazing calls this contest especially considering how new you are and it definitely has shown on the results. Keep it up! I'm looking forward to seeing how far you can get here.
Thanks. My craziest picks are yet to come, so there's a lot to look forward to.
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fpce666
04/10/20 5:48:35 PM
#179:


Team Rocket Elite posted...
RIP my bracket. I'm losing 3 of them and Shovel Knight doesn't matter.
One of them is a lock to you ;) Sonic Baby
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ZeldaTPLink
04/10/20 5:55:50 PM
#180:


For me it's all about the battle of the Mario brackets (namely the people who have Mario Odyssey > Smash in Round 4).

There are currently 7 of those people. Assuming the 24 points gained by picking Mario to get to the semi-finals eliminate everyone else (which is not a given, but it's likely unless someone gains a huge lead, or nails some insane risks in the last 3 rounds), I have to defeat the other 6 to win.

  • One of them, Jester69, has a lot of other heavy risks besides this one, such as Mass Effect 2 > BotW and GTA V > Mario in Round 5, so I can't really make a close comparison to him. If he gets those crazy risks right, he wins regardless of previous rounds.
  • Next, we have WiggumFan267, whose main risk besides Mario is having God of War getting to the semi-finals. So I need God of War not to do that. If both Mario and GoW happen, he's probably the champion.
  • Then we have Bossman_coolguy, our current guru star. He is the only Mario bracket who has The Witcher getting to the finals, so if both Mario > Smash and The Witcher > Skyrim happen, he wins.
  • Finally, there are 4 Mario brackets who have BotW > Mario and Skyrim > The Witcher as the final fourpack, so all the differences between us happen in round 4 or earlier. They are me, transience, tazzyboyishere, and DoomtheGyarados. The final battle between us will happen in round 4, where we all differ by at least 2 picks each, and the previous 3 rounds will help us gain advantage if round 4 is a tie. The current ranking is:


ZeldaTPLink: 54
transience: 53
tazzy: 52
Doom: 52

So far so good. Of course, this is just a tiebreaker of sorts. I need Mario and Skyrim to win their debated matches, and to get some difficult stuff right in Round 4. Disivions 2, 4 and 7 finals should be the main points of competition, and I assume I'll probably need to get at least 2 of them right.

As for the actual contest tiebreakers, transience seems to have the best one relative to the votals we are getting, followed by me, then tazzy and then Doom.

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SuperNiceDog
04/10/20 6:18:47 PM
#181:


Guru contest Day 15 Update! This time I included the entire list.







I moved up from 142nd to 139th! woooo happiness

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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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DoctorJimmy133
04/10/20 6:41:29 PM
#182:


Damn I'm pretty far down for only having 12 risks.

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Advokaiser is the man. Congrats!
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NewerShadow
04/10/20 9:51:58 PM
#183:


Celeste/Rayman still seems like it could flip, so here are eliminations for division 1 in both scenarios:

Celeste wins:
  • t_kizzle is eliminated by Camden if Sekiro > MH:W


Rayman wins:
  • SwiftyDC is eliminated by Cavedweller2000 if Sekiro > MH:W


That said, Division 2 looks like it will start off eliminations for real though - projecting out the next 8 matches results in at least 3 brackets dead in each scenario.
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SuperNiceDog
04/10/20 10:25:30 PM
#184:


@t_kizzle oh no!!!!

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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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azuarc
04/10/20 10:30:26 PM
#185:


Only 77 people at -4 or better, and I get to be on the outside looking in for the leaderboard. I've never been on the leaderboard, allen. Please just let me have this. Bump some of the Rayman brackets tomorrow and let me in!

Speaking of the leaderboard, grats to bossman for having sole possession of the lead.

ZeldaTPLink posted...
For me it's all about the battle of the Mario brackets (namely the people who have Mario Odyssey > Smash in Round 4).

There are currently 7 of those people. Assuming the 24 points gained by picking Mario to get to the semi-finals eliminate everyone else (which is not a given, but it's likely unless someone gains a huge lead, or nails some insane risks in the last 3 rounds), I have to defeat the other 6 to win.

This was definitely a gamble I considered heavily. I decided to call my shots elsewhere, though. If SMO somehow wins, I will be both pleased and annoyed with myself.

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VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE;
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greengravy294
04/10/20 10:43:57 PM
#186:


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azuarc
04/11/20 8:14:28 PM
#187:


damn you rayman people...gg

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VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE;
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MoogleKupo141
04/11/20 8:18:18 PM
#188:


I was feeling so smart about getting rayman right and now FF is going to blow it for me
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For your BK_Sheikah00.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza
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ZeldaTPLink
04/11/20 8:29:03 PM
#189:


I had Berseria > FF15.

I'm getting no points for this either way, but I feel vindicated.

FF15 was shit and I predicted it! Just didn't predict which game was going to expose it.
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ZeldaTPLink
04/11/20 8:44:31 PM
#190:


Well, that didn't age well.
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Bossman_Coolguy
04/11/20 8:46:14 PM
#191:


hollow knight loses ;9

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"you're the real hotdogger, bossman_coolguy" - meisnewbie, paraphrased
"Gravy is quite possibly a legit total nutjob." - corrik7
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Ringworm
04/11/20 9:16:28 PM
#192:


Happy to be one of the six gurus to call both Ori and Rayman correctly. Congrats to the other five:

charmander6000
linkhatesganon
pjbasis
HaRRicH
WhiteLens

Pity the rest of my bracket is awful.

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~ Ringworm ~
Congrats to Advokaiser - Guru champion - CBX
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NewerShadow
04/11/20 10:07:52 PM
#193:


Division 2 elimination update: (not affected by the result of FF15/Hollow Knight)


Who they're eliminated by (may vary by scenario):
Camden by hylianknight3
Cavedweller2000 by tyder21
DpObliVion by Glenn_and_Toad, PSI_NESS
handsomeboy2012 by mcflubbin
hylianknight3 by TAFKAHurricane
Kikoman589 by Dragon66116, TAFKAHurricane
LordoftheMorons by TAFKAHurricane, hylianknight3
Luster Soldier by spooky96
Master Moltar by Dragon66116, TAFKAHurricane
MZero11 by Dragon66116, TAFKAHurricane, Master Moltar
PSI_NESS by Glenn_and_Toad, foxhead84, DpObliVion
SwiftyDC by Polycosm
tennisboy213 by pirate109
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#194
Post #194 was unavailable or deleted.
SuperNiceDog
04/11/20 10:29:55 PM
#195:




The legends who believed in Rayman Legends. @MetalmindStats @Dr_Football @HaRRicH @WhiteLens @swirIdude RISE UP! ^_^

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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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SuperNiceDog
04/11/20 10:36:46 PM
#196:




@tennisboy213@Cavedweller2000 are likely gone... ME2+HZD is the probable run out.

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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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HaRRicH
04/11/20 11:50:51 PM
#197:


Appreciate the cred on Ori/Rayman -- know your platformers! Also though, I picked Destiny/Witness/Hearthstone this contest, so I'm really not sure I've earned much cred so far.

I've been most impressed with those who called for Octopath > Undertale.

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Cavedweller2000
04/12/20 4:37:38 AM
#198:


Wow, this is prob the best I've done in a contest, being in the 93rd percentile.

And I'm likely one of the first ones eliminated?

It's a scam I tells ya :(

P.s. @SuperNiceDog that wasn't the nicest mention to wake up to! Haha!

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Well done to Advokaiser for finishing 104 places above me in the 2018 CBX Guru Contest!
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davidponte
04/12/20 7:47:46 AM
#199:


Assuming Horizon and Bloodborne win, which seems like the likely result after their first round performances, I might find myself back in the top 5 for a little bit before my dumb picks catch up to me.

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The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history.
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Safer_777
04/12/20 7:55:41 AM
#200:


I am 33th but if the results hold I will go up some places since except BOTW matches the other matches have differrent winner.s

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MoogleKupo141
04/12/20 8:08:20 AM
#201:


I am 32th but if the results hold I will go up some places since except BOTW matches the other matches have differrent winner.s
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For your BK_Sheikah00.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza
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t_kizzle
04/12/20 11:14:21 AM
#202:


SuperNiceDog posted...
@t_kizzle oh no!!!!

Oh yes!!! Looks like I would've avoided elimination anyway though, thanks Monster Hunter

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Christopher Christopher Christopher Christopher
my username is not good
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davidponte
04/12/20 8:39:32 PM
#203:


If these results hold I will be tied for first in the guru, but likely #1 because I submitted my bracket early.

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Bossman_Coolguy
04/12/20 8:42:30 PM
#204:


my rain of terror has ended

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"you're the real hotdogger, bossman_coolguy" - meisnewbie, paraphrased
"Gravy is quite possibly a legit total nutjob." - corrik7
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tennisboy213
04/12/20 8:47:42 PM
#205:


it's been real
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