Board 8 > * GotD 2020 Guru Contest Stats & Discussion - Part One *

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Ngamer64
03/31/20 1:24:03 AM
#1:


Brackets have been finalized, everything's up to date on the website, we're officially off and running for the 2020 GotD Guru Contest! You can use this thread throughout the coming months to discuss results, your bracket, and of course- eliminations.

As always, the latest Guru info can be found on our site:

http://thengamer.com/guru/

We have 142 B8ers competing for the title of board's best this season, a wonderful turnout. Speaking of which, major thanks to TRE for automating the bracket entry process this year, saving us a ton of work! He's also going to assist me with keeping results up to date on the site all season.

Some neat features of the site include being able to click on anyone's name to see their full bracket. You can also use this link to share your bracket in topics, or put it in your sig. Mine for instance is

http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=3

Our biggest daredevil this year is SgtSphynx, with 46 risky picks- http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=16

While our most risk-averse Guru is Moltar, who picked against the Cookie Cutter choice only once- http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=110

The median number of risks taken in this bracket was 14.

If you want more info on any matchups in the bracket, just click the + next to that match in someone's bracket to get all the info. For instance, here's where we ended up on this year's most debated 1v1 showdown, Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze versus Devil May Cry 5: http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=23

Or for a more important datapoint- here's our choices for what faces off against BotW in the Finals: http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=126

And to see quick stats for ALL matchups, give this page a look

http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php

Best of luck to all our Gurus this season!


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BlAcK TuRtLe
03/31/20 1:32:09 AM
#2:


Pre-emptively declaring victory!

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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1
lol xstats
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Ngamer64
03/31/20 1:32:34 AM
#3:


When today's results go final we will have only 7 perfect brackets remaining out of our 142 total. Congrats to our Final Seven:

1. Gall - 20
2. Keltiq - 20
3. BlAcK TuRtLe - 20
4. Ytterbicide - 20
5. Osfan - 20
6. Bossman_Coolguy - 20
7. ffmasterjose - 20

That being said, tomorrow is a huge one. Let's have some congratulations in advance for the 16 Gurus bold enough to pick against our reigning World Champion Undertale in Round One!

Ngamer
MetalmindStats
abdou
ZeldaTPLink
junk_funk
Gall
Ranticoot
Paratroopa1
spooky96
SSBM_Guy
scaryice
LordOfDabu
UltimaterializerX
Bossman_Coolguy
Lord Bob Bree
ffmasterjose

Assuming Shovel Knight gets by Dragon's Dogma, we'll have only three perfects remaining by tomorrow evening because UT vs Octopath is a dead split at the top of the rankings. Pretty intense!


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Advo bested even The Show hosts in 2018, yowza!
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BlAcK TuRtLe
03/31/20 1:39:07 AM
#4:


DKC vs DMC is going to be a bloodbath.

If DMC and Undertale win, it will just be me and Keltiq remaining.

If DKC and Undertale win, ytterbicide will be the sole perfect

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CaptainOfCrush
03/31/20 1:45:23 AM
#5:


I'm off to a shit start, so far be it for me to talk a bit game right now, but DMC is one of those games I just can't see winning. Its games (1 and 3) have only made one contest, and the series's only win was against Mother 3. Donkey Kong is bringing more to the table than that. Someone open my eyes here because this match is 50/50 in the Guru and I'm not seeing why.

Edit: Post is better suited for the stats topic, so Imma just shimmy it on over there.

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NowItsAngeTime
03/31/20 2:13:06 AM
#6:


Ngamer64 posted...
We have 142 B8ers competing for the title of board's best this season, a wonderful turnout. Speaking of which, major thanks to TRE for automating the bracket entry process this year, saving us a ton of work! He's also going to assist me with keeping results up to date on the site all season.

I was wondering why I wasn't getting the NGamer DM asking for manual entry.

Thanks Team Rocket Elite

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SuperNiceDog
03/31/20 2:31:03 AM
#7:


@BlAcK_TuRtLe you are killing it so far gj man!

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LadyVyxx
03/31/20 2:32:06 AM
#8:


Who's alt is Gall btw cause gj on the perfect bracket so far
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SuperNiceDog
03/31/20 2:32:20 AM
#9:


@MasterMoltar 's bracket is oatmeal cookie cookie! hahahahah

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SuperNiceDog
03/31/20 2:33:16 AM
#10:


@Dr_Football , @MZero11 you also believe Persona 5 makes the finals????? YAAASSSSSS, I thought I was alone.

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SuperNiceDog
03/31/20 2:34:36 AM
#11:


DMC5 Support Team lets GOOOOOOOO!! I believe in Dante badass factor that's why I picked it ^_^

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ffmasterjose
03/31/20 3:24:20 AM
#12:


If Octopath pulls off the upset I wonder if that'll be enough to push me to #1 on the site leaderboard. Oh boy. I'm anxious af.

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Current 5th place overall in the GameFAQs Game of the Decade contest!
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NewerShadow
03/31/20 1:16:37 PM
#13:


Now that there isnt the mess of a losers bracket to push all the points to the end of the contest, Id imagine eliminations might start happening a bit sooner this year. I can take a stab at them if theres a .csv to work off of.
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azuarc
03/31/20 1:30:54 PM
#14:


Who's doing eliminations, anyway?

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VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE;
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Jdsmart
03/31/20 2:49:38 PM
#15:


Tag for later.

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Next up: Celeste
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Ranticoot
03/31/20 2:53:33 PM
#16:


I think with how the contest has gone so far, I have more confidence in Octopath winning today than I do DMC5

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Gall
03/31/20 5:12:00 PM
#17:


LadyVyxx posted...
Who's alt is Gall btw cause gj on the perfect bracket so far
...Is this very common on this board? Are you all secretly the same five people?

No, seriously, during the last character contest I discovered this board and with it all the years of contest histories, writeups, and episodes of The Show. Normally I prefer to just lurk and read the posts, but when GotD 2 got announced I figured it was a perfect time to get involved since everyone else would be at a prediction disadvantage with all the new games (Bastion says hi) and it's been a great experience.

Anyway, today should be a crazy day, and I should justify my picks before I end up looking like a fool:

Octopath > Undertale: The amount of sheer disrespect I've been seeing toward Octopath... looks a lot like how Bastion was thought of before its match with Walking Dead. In Game of the Decade, the Respect Factor matters, and Octopath is exactly the kind of game that GameFAQs respects - even discounting the fact that its playrate should be decent, being on Switch in 2017. Now, like Bastion, Octopath isn't a worldbeater, but it should beat lesser fodder no problem. Enter Undertale, and voters have too long memories for Undertale to rise very high above INSIDE-level fodder.

Dragon's Dogma > Shovel Knight: I've flipped back and forth on this one for weeks now, trying to explain my faith in DD, when I figured out the analogue for this match: Borderlands vs. Bloodstained. One is a big-budget 2012 game that's been mostly forgotten about but has a dedicated fanbase that still plays it today. The other is a more recent, good playrate indie that invokes 90s gaming nostalgia. After the first few days of the contest, some got IndieFEAR and thought Bloodstained could pull the upset, but Borderlands never looked threatened after the first hour or so. And yes, Dragon's Dogma is on Switch.

DK > Dante: It seems like even the Devil pickers aren't confident in this one anymore, so I'll keep it short: DK has really cleaned up his choke act in recent years. DMC5 would have to be a surprise powerhouse to pull it out here, and I don't see a reason for this site to start caring about character action games, especially such a recent one.
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#18
Post #18 was unavailable or deleted.
FFDragon
03/31/20 6:07:10 PM
#19:


Not going to lie, a lot of the matches I just took the game I've heard of before so I took Undertale by default.

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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person?
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greengravy294
03/31/20 6:10:52 PM
#20:


Whats wrong with you ffd how havent you heard of octopath traveler

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FFDragon
03/31/20 6:15:12 PM
#21:


I couldn't even tell you what system it's on!

...yeah I did like zero research for this bracket.

What's worse I think is I didn't know Tropical Freeze existed either.

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LeonhartFour
03/31/20 6:15:55 PM
#22:


It's a Switch exclusive RPG made my Square made to resemble an old school JRPG.
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Bossman_Coolguy
03/31/20 6:16:32 PM
#23:


yeah but who's alt is "bossman_coolguy" ive never heard of him in my life

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SuperNiceDog
03/31/20 6:17:15 PM
#24:


Undertale gonna win @Gall but yea good luck

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FFDragon
03/31/20 6:17:28 PM
#25:


"oh"

In my head I assumed it was part of like the Octodad series or something.

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Ngamer64
03/31/20 6:17:37 PM
#26:


azuarc posted...
Who's doing eliminations, anyway?
Anyone who wants to, I'll send Shadow the CSV file but anyone else can look at it also, if they PM me their e-mail address.

Gall posted...
...Is this very common on this board? Are you all secretly the same five people?

No, seriously, during the last character contest I discovered this board and with it all the years of contest histories, writeups, and episodes of The Show. Normally I prefer to just lurk and read the posts, but when GotD 2 got announced I figured it was a perfect time to get involved since everyone else would be at a prediction disadvantage with all the new games (Bastion says hi) and it's been a great experience.

OMG an actual new human being! I haven't been this excited since Metalmind.

(but yes, when a new username starts posting on this board, 95% of the time it's an alt of someone who first posted in 2004)


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Advo bested even The Show hosts in 2018, yowza!
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Bossman_Coolguy
03/31/20 6:18:08 PM
#27:


I'm ready to be invited onto The Show when I continue being Perfect

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Bossman_Coolguy
03/31/20 6:18:58 PM
#28:


i can accept an invite at any time though, nagmer

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azuarc
03/31/20 6:29:51 PM
#29:


Ngamer64 posted...
azuarc posted...

Who's doing eliminations, anyway?

Anyone who wants to, I'll send Shadow the CSV file but anyone else can look at it also, if they PM me their e-mail address.

I've always wondered how one computes eliminations. It's a math puzzle I've never really been able to figure out. At least not from an efficiency perspective. Obviously brute force is a thing.

But it sounds like the main method is simply to say if, between two brackets, (remaining points difference) - (point differential) > 0, then an elimination has occurred. No idea how that computes joint eliminations, though. Those can only happen when someone has a null spot in their bracket, right?

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azuarc
03/31/20 6:31:59 PM
#30:


Gall posted...
Dragon's Dogma > Shovel Knight: I've flipped back and forth on this one for weeks now, trying to explain my faith in DD, when I figured out the analogue for this match: Borderlands vs. Bloodstained. One is a big-budget 2012 game that's been mostly forgotten about but has a dedicated fanbase that still plays it today. The other is a more recent, good playrate indie that invokes 90s gaming nostalgia. After the first few days of the contest, some got IndieFEAR and thought Bloodstained could pull the upset, but Borderlands never looked threatened after the first hour or so. And yes, Dragon's Dogma is on Switch.

The problem with this comparison is that Borderlands 2 >> Dragon's Dogma, and Bloodstained << Shovel Knight.

Like, if the match was Borderlands vs Shovel Knight, maybe I'd have a moment of pause.

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SuperNiceDog
03/31/20 6:37:25 PM
#31:


I could be in the running for early elimination I'm in 2nd to last place now lol

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ZeldaTPLink
03/31/20 6:51:35 PM
#32:


Gall is killing it in the Streak Contest too! He's ahead of everyone.
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Gall
03/31/20 7:37:29 PM
#33:


Thanks for the kind words everyone. Here's to a great community, a great contest, and many more to come.

azuarc posted...
The problem with this comparison is that Borderlands 2 >> Dragon's Dogma, and Bloodstained << Shovel Knight.

Like, if the match was Borderlands vs Shovel Knight, maybe I'd have a moment of pause.
I'm not so sure about either of those greater/less thans. Borderlands is the kind of game that gets weaker on GameFAQs every year, while Dragon's Dogma is closer to the JRPGs that, in retrospect, held up extremely well against Monster Hunter and Sekiro. Shovel Knight probably is stronger than Bloodstained, but I think it's a game that is more liked than loved and could collapse against a hardcore fanbase. All that said, this is definitely the pick I'm least confident in today, and Shovel Knight well could put up 60% and make me look like a fool.
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NewerShadow
03/31/20 7:42:18 PM
#34:


azuarc posted...
I've always wondered how one computes eliminations. It's a math puzzle I've never really been able to figure out. At least not from an efficiency perspective. Obviously brute force is a thing.

But it sounds like the main method is simply to say if, between two brackets, (remaining points difference) - (point differential) > 0, then an elimination has occurred. No idea how that computes joint eliminations, though. Those can only happen when someone has a null spot in their bracket, right?

Yeah, I basically use a program to brute force all differences between all brackets. If I had infinite time, Id maybe convert my Java program that reads in a .csv every time to something using a database, but it hasnt broken so far and execution is still reasonably quick.

For joint eliminations, it checks instances where someone lost their pick at least a round early (and are guaranteed to be wrong), then checks the possible combinations of winners.

My first run with real data has no one eliminated, and no one in danger for the next 4. Im going to try to output some statistics (how many risks vs the cookie, primarily) and a spreadsheet of bracket similarity in the next couple days.
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Ytterbicide
03/31/20 8:05:06 PM
#35:


Gall posted...
Octopath > Undertale: The amount of sheer disrespect I've been seeing toward Octopath... looks a lot like how Bastion was thought of before its match with Walking Dead. In Game of the Decade, the Respect Factor matters, and Octopath is exactly the kind of game that GameFAQs respects - even discounting the fact that its playrate should be decent, being on Switch in 2017. Now, like Bastion, Octopath isn't a worldbeater, but it should beat lesser fodder no problem. Enter Undertale, and voters have too long memories for Undertale to rise very high above INSIDE-level fodder.

I shared this exact viewpoint for a while. Octopath is a fairly well-liked Square RPG, and from what I'm reading, a trailblazer for the Switch. Someone'll have to tell me if it's worth playing. Game made the bracket after a year, so it must be doing something right.

The only problem I have with this model is its dependence on Undertale remaining weak. Draven getting scorched by Ammy way back in 2018 may have been a given, but...when the hell have you heard the name Draven? Unless you play LoL, all that comes to mind is 2013. In the meantime, Undertale has built multiplatform support, made a popular Smash appearance, and become part of the mainstream. Come 2015, Undertale was a sleeper hit, and made a sleeper run as an entrant only PC gamers knew about. That alone should put it well past the likes of INSIDE, and enough to make this a match.

I think your pick's valid, but I don't think anti-voting would matter as much as Octopath being what it is, where it is. It's relying on whatever natural strength it has.

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NewerShadow
03/31/20 8:21:02 PM
#36:


NewerShadow posted...
My first run with real data has no one eliminated, and no one in danger for the next 4. Im going to try to output some statistics (how many risks vs the cookie, primarily) and a spreadsheet of bracket similarity in the next couple days.

Did I say a couple days? I meant a couple hours.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13yqPkgoUeanqhQTutjt-HKF4S1qhGOIHyYvF9XeESrY/edit?usp=sharing#gid=2144198413

Here's a similarity matrix of all brackets, where 0 is a comparison with yourself, and the maximum possible difference is the full bracket, which would be 448 points. I tried out google sheets' color scale on this sheet, if it's bothering you, the second sheet is just the first without the conditional formatting, or you can make a copy and manipulate it as you like.

The Cookie line/columns also double as a measure of points risked vs. the cookie.
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#37
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BlAcK TuRtLe
03/31/20 9:10:05 PM
#38:


Cmon Underfail, never thought I'd be rooting for it

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SuperNiceDog
03/31/20 9:11:45 PM
#39:


NewerShadow posted...
Did I say a couple days? I meant a couple hours.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13yqPkgoUeanqhQTutjt-HKF4S1qhGOIHyYvF9XeESrY/edit?usp=sharing#gid=2144198413

Here's a similarity matrix of all brackets, where 0 is a comparison with yourself, and the maximum possible difference is the full bracket, which would be 448 points. I tried out google sheets' color scale on this sheet, if it's bothering you, the second sheet is just the first without the conditional formatting, or you can make a copy and manipulate it as you like.

The Cookie line/columns also double as a measure of points risked vs. the cookie.

good job!

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Polycosm
04/01/20 1:45:12 AM
#40:


Ouch my bracket today oof

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spooky96
04/01/20 3:17:23 AM
#41:


Tag

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Congrats to Advokaiser, the Guru Champ!
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spooky96
04/01/20 3:33:57 AM
#42:


@Ngamer64
My tiebreak is 2300751, not 2200751.

Also, as for Battle #103, I've got RDR > GTA V, not GTA > RDR. Sorry if I messed this up >_>

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Congrats to Advokaiser, the Guru Champ!
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#43
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MikeTavish
04/01/20 7:51:27 AM
#44:


Tag

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Formerly ff6man.
Advokaiser won the guru! Congrats!
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greengravy294
04/01/20 8:30:39 AM
#45:


If results stand I will be the only remaining perfect guru bracket

What a world

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hylianknight3
04/01/20 8:35:10 AM
#46:


gravy, congrats

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My bracket was soft... just like my heart!
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ffmasterjose
04/01/20 8:37:36 AM
#47:


Grats bro

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Current 5th place overall in the GameFAQs Game of the Decade contest!
NP: Octopath Traveler/Shovel Knight/DKCTF/Super Mario Odyssey
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ZeldaTPLink
04/01/20 10:17:11 AM
#48:


Gravy is the only guru in this contest who has both Odissey winning Round 5 and The Witcher 3 winning Round 6.

And I think both results are very possible.
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#49
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greengravy294
04/01/20 4:01:43 PM
#50:


I've been memeing winning guru since the contest was announced but being the leader in reality is wild.

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