Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1322

(+) Yeah! (+)

Its a shame Mario couldnt manage to pull it off against Cloud! I wouldnt have expected Cloud to pull that one off, though I guess after that narrow win against Samus he had some sort of rally going against him, haha. Total redemption after the 2013 contest against Vivi, tho!

Zelda way overperformed on Samus in that match. The strength gap between them before Zelda boosted this year was probably somewhere between the 2006 match and the 2010 match where Samus broke 63%.

ALAKA posted...

xp1337 posted...

It's the Samus/Snake match that ultimately kind of messes everything up.

Is it possible this match result is so out of whack because of bracket voting, Maybe it was a lot more comforting to people to see Samus obviously going to lose to Mario the next round then risk a Snake/Mario clash.

Not really. If you extrapolate through Tifa like I mentioned, you ultimately end up with Samus being expected to get approximately 51% against Snake. ...Instead she ended up with 56.5%. It's just not realistic that bracket voting or strategic voting could account for that IMO.

I'd be more willing to chalk up the Samus/Snake match as an outlier if you truly wanted to just explain it away.

I'd be willing to believe a slight Zelda bandwagon coupled with a Samus overperformance/Snake underperformance in that match I think. Though KP is much more aware of the problems this would cause in Zelda's division so perhaps this doesn't check out as well as I might hope.
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As far as "problems" inside divisions go, that doesn't seem like a good reason to adjust things. It's been 5 years since our last character battle and we have way fewer voters now, we should expect there to be a lot of change. The Legends and Losers brackets all seem pretty consistent, with the Samus/Snake match standing out as wonky. But it wouldn't seem half as strange as the Mario/Samus matches if we hadn't discussed Mario/Samus endlessly for the past 13 years and have a lot of theories about what's happening in Mario/Samus now.

My suggestion: give Snake the average of his results through Zelda and Samus, and extrapolate Samus through Tifa.
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garetha200 posted...

Zelda way overperformed on Samus in that match. The strength gap between them before Zelda boosted this year was probably somewhere between the 2006 match and the 2010 match where Samus broke 63%.

Well Zelda overperformed in 2006 period, including her match with Aeris. I'm not even sure whether she'll beat Aeris in 2010 considering how bad she looked all contest and they finished almost right next to each other in the x-stats.
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For what it's worth, this is the first time Sheik has ever been the main focus in a Zelda-match (though it is rotating). This is also the first time Sheik has been used at all for Zelda since CJayC's era, when she was a background character in two pictures against Samus in 2006:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb2k6/cb561-1.jpg

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb2k6/cb561-3.jpg

I don't know if it's "sabotage" but it's weird and offputting. Sheik would be super-strong, no question, but also I don't vote for Sheik like I do Zelda because Sheik is a fucking Smash beast while Zelda's like okay to play as in Smash. There's a cognative dissonance to see my all-time favorite fighting game character represent a princess I don't care so much about. I'd vote for Sheik in every match Zelda had this contest, whereas I don't think I've voted for Zelda since she faced Aerith.

So, I guess for a similar comparison: does putting Nightmare in a Siegfried-match make Siegfried stronger or weaker?

I recognize their shared LoZ:OoT history, but it doesn't feel natural in a way I think is different from the likes of sharing pics between Samus and Zero Suit Samus, Mario and Dr. Mario, etc.

I dunno, just saying Sheik > Cloud > Zelda for me but I don't consider this a match for Sheik.
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What if Samus/Snake was accurate, though, and that Samus/Tifa was the match that was off (as in, Tifa overperformed)? I know that makes Samus ridiculously strong, but I'm just throwing that possibility out there! Isn't it funny how the only two opponents we have to measure Samus are opponents where Samus previously had debatably wonky match results with? In 2005 Tifa overperformed on Samus (and possibly 2013, too) and people still debate on whether Samus/Snake 2006 wasn't accurate, either....

That's why we need to see Samus vs. Cloud!

So the idea is that Zelda was fairly consistent all the way through Zelda vs. Sonic. And then Zelda increased in bandwagon strength through Mario/Zelda and Link/Zelda and now we have a stronger Zelda against Cloud. It actually sounds pretty logical. I don't think I would change KKP's placement of Zelda and Snake. Still, I wonder if Sonic really is weaker than Luigi.... granted, I like how Tifa and MMX are given some credit for their strength. And Luigi is placed above Bowser and Yoshi, which I think is correct.

Sephiroth's performance were really inconsistent. His matches against Captain Falcon and Ryu suggest the stronger Sephiroth, but his performances on Mario, Amaterasu and Wesker suggest the weaker Sephiroth. What's funny, though, is that even the weaker Sephiroth that KKP uses is still above Sonic.
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xp1337 posted...

I'd be willing to believe a slight Zelda bandwagon coupled with a Samus overperformance/Snake underperformance in that match I think.

For the record, the stats did end up with Snake looking like he underperformed a little. Match is closer to 55-45 than we we got.
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Haste_2 posted...

Still, I wonder if Sonic really is weaker than Luigi....

Sonic is probably underrated in the stats simply because it would be kind of nuts to see him decline so much, but he did bad in every match so there's not much I can do for him.

Sephiroth's performance were really inconsistent. His matches against Captain Falcon and Ryu suggest the stronger Sephiroth, but his performances on Mario, Amaterasu and Wesker suggest the weaker Sephiroth.

Sephiroth was the most inconsistent character in the main bracket. He simultaneously made different parts of his division look amazing and terrible.
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Kinda weird he underperformed on Mario but overperformed on Falcon? Seems kind of weird given those are both smash characters. Obviously Mario has his own very popular series, but that's never been a significant issue for Seph before.

Wacky stuff.

Mario surpassed the 300-vote barrier on Cloud. I don't think Zelda's going to be able to match that tonight.
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From this point until the end yesterday, Cloud rose 1.26%

Mario's lead at this point was 296 votes.
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Worth pointing out Zelda rose 0.6% against Mario from this point to the end of the poll which would suggest Cloud will have a harder job chasing/gaining today than yesterday, all things being equal.
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ShatteredElysium posted...

Ok so with Zelda pulling ahead it looks like I might maintain 3rd depending on how many have her winnings the losers final (I feel that can't be many). And I can always hope that the 2 people above me might not be prize brackets.

Do you have a different name on the leaderboard?
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INTERWEBUSER posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

Ok so with Zelda pulling ahead it looks like I might maintain 3rd depending on how many have her winnings the losers final (I feel that can't be many). And I can always hope that the 2 people above me might not be prize brackets.

Do you have a different name on the leaderboard?

Yes. Lukejalil. I was leading until Mario lost, had Mario in my bracket. Have nothing today so kind hoping for the lowest percentage winner. A Cloud win probably drops me a decent chunk. A zelda win will drop me hardly nothing, maybe not even at all

Cloud was doing better in both NA and Europe than he is thus-far. I'm liking Zelda's chances but we'll see. FFVII has been CLUTCH this contest.
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Yesterday Mario stopped the bleeding right around 6am EST. Lets see if the same happens today.
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Hahaha Zelda
Lose already you worthless shit
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Nanis23 posted...

Hahaha Zelda
Lose already you worthless shit

Don't worry either way, we get a loser that will lose again !

*checks the poll for the first time in a while*

OH NO
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hylianknight3 posted...

*checks the poll for the first time in a while*

OH NO

Link versus Cloud posted...

Doesn't seem like it.

Mario and Cloud are on a similar level and Cloud has less SFF vs Link and yet he still failed to break 40, so no reason to think Mario would do it. We already saw that Zelda couldn't do it. Crono/MM are about the same level as Pikachu, who barely broke 31.5, let alone 40 (Crono would do better due to less SFF, but still nowhere near 40). Snake and Samus are the only ones with a shot at 40, but Samus probably gets SFF'd to hell and if Snake barely got 43.5 on Samus I don't like his odds to get 40 on Link.

Samus could conceivably avoid SFF and break 40% in a final, due to anti-votes/bandwagon.

Shed be a clear favorite over Cloud. Surprised to see people saying Cloud would win or its a toss up. Samus performance on Snake May have been wonky, but she should still be able to outdo Cloud on Snake.

Id say Snake/Cloud is very hard to call.

Imagine having a lead change nobody us talking about
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UltimaterializerX posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Samus has proven herself to be stronger than Mario in every match that doesn't involve facing Mario and dealing with the hierarchy. That 57% on Snake is better than anything Mario could hope to accomplish.

Samus is definitely stronger indirectly. There is no denying this.

Indirectly? Hell, she was stronger than Mario *directly* their last match if you dont count double votes (who knows if we get those next time).

Unless her next game is horrid and hurts her somehow, Id say shed be the 1v1 favorite vs. Mario. Their history should also play in her favor, making her more sympathetic.

I think if we had a Linkless bracket, people would think Samus deserved to win.

Nanis23 posted...

Imagine having a lead change nobody us talking about

Link: (yawning) So Zelda, you're finally back for the "final battle"

Cloud: Actually sir, my name is Clo...

Link: IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOUR NAME IS!!!
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Go my Cloud
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Even though Mario winning twice would have been amazing and would've made me finish on the leaderboard, man does it feel great to see Cloud work his way to the finals. In a contest where everyone took almost every chance to laugh at Final Fantasy, Cloud is making his way to be number #2 even today.
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Not surprised by Cloud pulling it off after Tifa beat Luigi.
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Cloud deserves some music.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EmsS36yXTs" data-time="
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The_Ctes posted...

Even though Mario winning twice would have been amazing and would've made me finish on the leaderboard, man does it feel great to see Cloud work his way to the finals. In a contest where everyone took almost every chance to laugh at Final Fantasy, Cloud is making his way to be number #2 even today.

It sort of brings some credibility back to this site.

I like Nintendo but the fucking drone mentality and new generation switch fanboys annoy the hell out of me.

Link is clearly number 1 and I accept that but Link/cloud finals area tradition. Its nice to see some things remain the same.
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At this point, Mario still had a lead of over 100 votes. Rallies are always possible, but Cloud looks in good position at the moment.
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Yeah, and I don't think there's the same push for Zelda now as was in her first run. Cloud probably has this.
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If Cloud beats Zelda, would he be the hero of the contest (or at least of the Noble Nine)?

Zelda hasn't lost a single matchup aside from Link, so I don't know if Cloud putting an end to Zelda's bandwagon would put him in a honorable spot.
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Cloud is the hero. Link is the guy who just goes through the motions while steamrolling everyone. Mario is the villain. Samus is the tragic heroine.

Zelda is a Mary Sue.
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LusterSoldier posted...

Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 3 and later

Cloud Strife vs. Mario
Registered Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 4320 (47.73%)
Mario - 4730 (52.27%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 6027 (54.33%)
Mario - 5066 (45.67%)

This was almost nearly a 7% difference between registered/anonymous users, but the reason for this huge difference was the rallying for Cloud. Based on the percentage of registered user votes after 12 hours into the match, we were on pace to finish around 46.75% registered users. This allowed me to estimate that there were about 800 rallied votes, with an estimated split of 600 for Cloud and 200 for Mario. There were some rallies for Mario, the most successful one being on the Mario subreddit where the topic did manage to reach the number 1 spot at one point.

Without any rallying, Mario probably would have won by about 250 votes and finished with about 50.50% on Cloud. The results at the 12 hour mark had Mario with 51.91% with registered users and 46.63% with anonymous users, which is only around a 5% difference instead.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub

@LusterSoldier

Thats interesting.

Does your projection of how many registered voters we would have finished at, take into account that the first half of the match probably has more registered users?

I think maybe not many have talked about Cloud rallying, is that the entire notion of FF7 rallying past freakin Mario is so absurd that it hasnt sunk in yet.

Though I think a lot of it would be a lack of rallying for Mario, as the people that would normally rally him probably saw him as the villain this time.

creativename posted...

Does your projection of how many registered voters we would have finished at, take into account that the first half of the match probably has more registered users?

Of course it does. I've done some hourly registered voting trend charts for select matches this contest and looked up the trend chart that looks most similar at the 12 hour point in comparison to the hourly chart I did for Cloud/Mario. At the 12 hour point, we had 50.50% registered users in this match. The closest comparison was Yoshi/Pikachu with 50.59% registered users at the same point in the match.

The trend charts can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub?gid=1379643868
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Cloud just demolishing right now. I think Mario was actually gaining at this point yesterday.
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yeah this is over

seems Zelda (even this juiced up bandwagoned version) is still weaker than mario indirectly. she relied on a bit of SFF to beat him.

I don't think it was SFF, I think her bandwagon just slowed once people saw she couldn't beat Link either.
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BTW, why is Mario perceived as the villain? He's a happy, family-friendly plumber who everyone knows and many people love. Cloud may be a little more suitable of that title due to his personality and being sort of an anti-vote magnet.
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Zelda busted out her biggest update since 2:40 AM, and all she got out of it was a stall. Ouch.
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Any bandwagon for Zelda died completely after she got crushed by Link tbh, this is not a surprising result. If she ever had a bandwagon, there is no better way to lose that momentum than losing the way she did.
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Advokaiser posted...

BTW, why is Mario perceived as the villain? He's a happy, family-friendly plumber who everyone knows and many people love. Cloud may be a little more suitable of that title due to his personality and being sort of an anti-vote magnet.

It's just a part of contest lore.

His 2002 match against Cloud involving the Planet Gamecube rally, that led to Crono being a hero who tried to "avenge" Cloud but falling just short.

Mario/Crono II (2003) was another big part of the lore. The match started early (CJayC would let matches start early if the previous match was clearly decided back then) and Crono led after 24 hours. However the match continued and Mario took the lead and won in "overtime" as the match ran until midnight. That's what made the Mario/Crono rivalry truly iconic (especially since Mario ended at 50.05% both times) and it also intensified Mario's villain cred.

And it's stuck with him ever since. It has nothing to do with how he's portrayed in games or reality. It's all contest lore stuff. I think it was mentioned way back, but it's part of the kayfabe of the contests.
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Omniscientless posted...

Any bandwagon for Zelda died completely after she got crushed by Link tbh, this is not a surprising result. If she ever had a bandwagon, there is no better way to lose that momentum than losing the way she did.

I voted Cloud because she disappointed me
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xp1337 posted...

Advokaiser posted...

BTW, why is Mario perceived as the villain? He's a happy, family-friendly plumber who everyone knows and many people love. Cloud may be a little more suitable of that title due to his personality and being sort of an anti-vote magnet.

It's just a part of contest lore.

His 2002 match against Cloud involving the Planet Gamecube rally, that led to Crono being a hero who tried to "avenge" Cloud but falling just short.

Mario/Crono II (2003) was another big part of the lore. The match started early (CJayC would let matches start early if the previous match was clearly decided back then) and Crono led after 24 hours. However the match continued and Mario took the lead and won in "overtime" as the match ran until midnight. That's what made the Mario/Crono rivalry truly iconic (especially since Mario ended at 50.05% both times) and it also intensified Mario's villain cred.

And it's stuck with him ever since. It has nothing to do with how he's portrayed in games or reality. It's all contest lore stuff. I think it was mentioned way back, but it's part of the kayfabe of the contests.

Ohhh, I see. Thanks. I knew that Mario/Crono was an epic rivalry on this site, but I still have a lot to learn about contests lore, especially involving characters.
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Advokaiser posted...

BTW, why is Mario perceived as the villain? He's a happy, family-friendly plumber who everyone knows and many people love. Cloud may be a little more suitable of that title due to his personality and being sort of an anti-vote magnet.

It's what happens when a bunch of wrestling nerds run the stats topic
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Checking in on the geolocation map again... yeaaaah this looks a lot like Mario/Cloud, except Cloud basically being up slightly across the board.
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Still no votes for D.F. (Mexico City)

Do you need to activate an option on the settings for you to be registered under certain country/state?
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Honestly, it's because people are still angry Mario defeated Crono in 2003. Outside of beating Samus a couple of days ago Mario has been very non-controversial for 15 years.
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Advokaiser posted...

Still no votes for D.F. (Mexico City)

Do you need to activate an option on the settings for you to be registered under certain country/state?

Hmm. That's weird. If I had to guess, whatever system GameFAQs uses for guessing where you're located just messed up on you.

Or if you're using a proxy I guess that could throw it off too.
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