Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1322

(+) Yeah! (+)

Big Cloud jump
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The updates and leads are irrelevant.

Lets see how hey do overnight. Zelda has to build some sort of lead. Cloud drained 2% off friggin Link in there last 8 hours of their match. Guy is no joke.

And thats to go from 62 to 60 lol.
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Not_Wylvane posted...

All in all, this was a great contest and I'm glad after sixteen years we still have great experiences like these.

Amen!

Thankfully, we didn't get any contest "ruining" outside rallies (i.e. Draven and Undertale). Yet we still had unexpected results from the runs of Zelda, Tifa, Tails, Alucard, Geralt, etc.

Plus, the Losers bracket stuff was neat and let us see some extra matchups, even if it would have been better if the ordering had been reversed from Legends.
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Unless something big changes, looks like it's going the same exact path as Cloud/Mario.

Do the geolocation results match up to how Cloud/Mario looked?
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Luigiman59 posted...

Damn shame we didnt get Zelda/Samus or Cloud/Samus

This would have certainly been something to behold.
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Not_Wylvane posted...

Unless something big changes, looks like it's going the same exact path as Cloud/Mario.

Do the geolocation results match up to how Cloud/Mario looked?

Kinda?

I know Mario led US and Canada pretty much the entire way. (Canada flipped to Cloud at the very end and is now 50/50. US had Mario up about 2% over Canada the whole match) and that's true now. Zelda at 53 in the US, 51 in Canada.

Cloud is going even with Zelda in the UK though whereas he led solidly (~55-56%) vs. Mario. Not sure if that took time to materialize though.
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Cloud's gonna take his rightful spot as #2 overnight.

And I'm guessing he gets a minor bandwagon to 45% in the final.
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Wait...

Why does Distrito Federal (a.k.a. Mexico City) not have any votes marked? I'm there.
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Advokaiser posted...

Wait...

Why does Distrito Federal (a.k.a. Mexico City) not have any votes marked? I'm there.

I think the geolocation map updates slower. So if you voted recently it may not have reflected it yet.

Some other things I was looking at during Mario/Cloud and have since referenced with some other stuff.

Cloud is really popular (at least v Nintendo) in Europe. Especially Eastern Europe. He beat Link in much of it, and annihilated Mario there.

96.43% in the Czech Republic v Mario (57.69% v Link). 91.67% in Lithuania v Mario (76.92% v Link)

Link barely won the UK and France (51-52%) whereas Mario was held to 44%.
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If cloud wins he would be in the Poll 3 days in a row.

I think that surely has to hurt his chances to do anything against link and by anything I mean hit past 40%
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Mario could've had four days in a row if he won out up to Link.
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I can't wait for 5 years from now when there's another character contest and the pre-contest analysis meme is ZELDA IS A FRAUD.

SPOILERS Vs. Cloud.
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Not_Wylvane posted...

Mario could've had four days in a row if he won out up to Link.

I think the samus match took a lot out of Mario.
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trogita posted...

I can't wait for 5 years from now when there's another character contest and the pre-contest analysis meme is ZELDA IS A FRAUD.

Shes in top 5 now and will be top 9 come the next contest.

I worry for characters like Seph and sonic
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

If cloud wins he would be in the Poll 3 days in a row.

I think that surely has to hurt his chances to do anything against link and by anything I mean hit past 40%

Do any if you think Cloud being in the poll two days in a row hurts or helps him more?

Helps. It always seemed to help Snake at least. And yeah, I could see Cloud getting enough of a bandwagon/Link anti-votes together to break 45% and make it look like old times again.
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I don't really think it has an effect.
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This is a sorry sight. We could have potentially
had an (on paper) titanic battle between the protagonists of two of the Switch's most critically acclaimed games as the Championship round.

Instead we have two chumps pulling each other's hair over who gets the dubious honor of being 40/60'd by Link for the second straight time in a single contest.
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lmao at link/mario being titanic in any sense
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As opposed to Mario getting 40/60'd the first time, I guess.
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In the sense that we at least haven't already seen it this contest. And I did specify "on paper".
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QJD1381 posted...

This is a sorry sight. We could have potentially
had an (on paper) titanic battle between the protagonists of two of the Switch's most critically acclaimed games as the Championship round.

Instead we have two chumps pulling each other's hair over who gets the dubious honor of being 40/60'd by Link for the second straight time in a single contest.

I will take Link/Cloud over Link/Mario everytime

Link/Cloud is a classic!
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Cloud has never failed to break 39% on Link. Mario has never managed to break 38% on Link.
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Cloud is owed his 46% match. He'll get it. Trust.
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Real talk, Samus beating Mario in the rematch would have led to the most interesting slate of matches assuming she had won out IMO.

Samus/Cloud and Samus/Zelda both could have been informative. Once we were down to Link, Zelda, Cloud, and Mario though... Zelda/Cloud would be the only halfway interesting one not guaranteed and that's what we've got so meh.
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Also how does shiek weaken Zelda?

If anything it makes her stronger.
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Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 3 and later

Cloud Strife vs. Mario
Registered Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 4320 (47.73%)
Mario - 4730 (52.27%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 6027 (54.33%)
Mario - 5066 (45.67%)

This was almost nearly a 7% difference between registered/anonymous users, but the reason for this huge difference was the rallying for Cloud. Based on the percentage of registered user votes after 12 hours into the match, we were on pace to finish around 46.75% registered users. This allowed me to estimate that there were about 800 rallied votes, with an estimated split of 600 for Cloud and 200 for Mario. There were some rallies for Mario, the most successful one being on the Mario subreddit where the topic did manage to reach the number 1 spot at one point.

Without any rallying, Mario probably would have won by about 250 votes and finished with about 50.50% on Cloud. The results at the 12 hour mark had Mario with 51.91% with registered users and 46.63% with anonymous users, which is only around a 5% difference instead.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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Link - 50
Samus Aran - 39.96
Cloud Strife - 39.48
Mario - 39.28
Zelda - 36.38
Solid Snake - 36.15
Crono - 35.48
Mega Man - 35.33
Pikachu - 34.86
Tifa - 33.1
Mega Man X - 32.98
Ganondorf - 32.98
Luigi - 32.2
Bowser - 32.06
Sephiroth - 32.01
Kirby - 32
Vivi Ornitier - 31.68
Sonic the Hedgehog - 31.65
Yoshi - 31.51
Alucard - 31.27
Zero - 30.29
Auron - 29.03
Pokemon Trainer Red - 28.89
Dante - 28.75
Donkey Kong - 28.53
Ryu - 28.39
Sora - 28.37
Charizard - 27.86
Mewtwo - 27.74
Big Boss - 27.63
Aerith Gainsborough - 27.51
Chun-Li - 27.1
Princess Peach - 27.01
Squall Leonhart - 26.82
2B - 26.81
Knuckles - 26.56
Terra Branford - 26.3
Amaterasu - 26.25
Crash Bandicoot - 26.04
Geralt - 26.04
Fox McCloud - 26.02
Vincent Valentine - 25.65
Bayonetta - 25.58
Kratos - 25.51
Kefka - 25.36
Leon Kennedy - 25.29
Ryu Hayabusa - 25.28
Yuna - 25.25
Sub-Zero - 25.13
Simon Belmont - 24.9
Ness - 24.82
Frog - 24.71
Magus - 24.68
Phoenix Wright - 24.58
Tidus - 24.57
Pac-Man - 24.52
Ike - 24.25
Wario - 24.08
Ridley - 23.95
Jill Valentine - 23.89
Cecil Harvey - 23.86
Captain Falcon - 23.83
Spyro the Dragon - 23.75
Lara Croft - 23.67
Scorpion - 23.42
Waluigi - 23.37
Shadow the Hedgehog - 23.2
Zidane Tribal - 22.95
Rosalina - 22.9
Toad - 22.01
The Boss - 21.32
Chris Redfield - 21.17
Shovel Knight - 20.88
Revolver Ocelot - 20.84
GlaDOS - 20.81
King DeDeDe - 20.63
Bomberman - 20.38
L-Block - 20.2
Albert Wesker - 20.19
Tails - 20.19
Lucina - 20.06
KOS-MOS - 19.83
Lightning - 19.77
Garrus Vakarian - 19.3
Ramza Beoulve - 19.06
Isaac - 19.01
Commander Shepard - 18.99
Richter Belmont - 18.87
Shulk - 18.81
Master Hand - 18.8
Velvet Crowe - 18.55
Metal Sonic - 18.54
King K. Rool - 18.52
Joel - 18.28
Riku - 18.21
Ellie - 18.07
Master Chief - 17.97
Ezio Auditore da Firenze - 17.95
Lloyd Irving - 17.92
Geno - 17.75
Ryo Hazuki - 17.54
Nathan Drake - 17.47
Monika - 17.07
Claire Redfield - 16.95
Aqua - 16.9
Cuphead - 16.34
Guile - 16.29
Shantae - 16.22
Noctis Lucis Caelum - 15.96
Kazuma Kiryu - 15.95
Yu Narukami - 15.91
Dragonborn - 15.84
Joker / Ren Amamiya - 15.74
Primrose - 15.64
Aya Brea - 15.56
Goro Majima - 15.32
Metal Man - 15.2
D.Va - 14.82
Miles Edgeworth - 14.51
Gordon Freeman - 14.5
James Sunderland - 14.45
Neptune - 14.26
Neku Sakuraba - 14.11
Aloy - 13.95
Godot - 13.86
John Marston - 13.68
Estelle Bright - 13.45
Sans - 13.15
Monokuma - 13.01
Hat Kid - 12.94
Isabelle - 12.76
Victor Sullivan - 12.58
Quiet - 12.13
Cayde-6 - 11.9
Chloe Price - 8.65
Draven - 6.22

This is maybe not entirely done but I'm probably not changing it much from here on out.
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I'm excited to see if Cloud can break 51% this time
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Why is Zelda so low in the stats?
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KamikazePotato posted...

Ramza Beoulve - 19.06
Isaac - 19.01

I see that Ramza used TJF to get over the fodder line.
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redrocket posted...

Why is Zelda so low in the stats?

Her performances in her division don't match up with being able to beat guys like Mario and Cloud. She did good but not THAT good, and going even with Snake in Round 1 of the Legends bracket (when the bandwagon wouldn't have materialized yet) is also a red flag when Snake proceeded to get blown out by Samus.

I wouldn't be surprised if she was underrated in the stats, but yeah. The Legends bracket was a mess and made adjusting things...not easy.
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Is Zelda still getting bandwagoned? Against Link, Zelda dropped about 10 percentage points from the freeze until now. Against Cloud, Zelda only dropped 2.
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the Zelda fans who voted Link will vote Zelda against Cloud, so I'm sure that has a lot to do with the lower drop.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Is Zelda still getting bandwagoned? Against Link, Zelda dropped about 10 percentage points from the freeze until now. Against Cloud, Zelda only dropped 2.

Maybe, maybe not. The issue comes with her division and Snake. Adjusting Zelda continuously upwards makes them a lot stronger than everything else indicates they should be. I suppose it could be a scenario where Zelda is just a character that rises to the competition, but to me it feels a lot like the Charizard run.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Is Zelda still getting bandwagoned? Against Link, Zelda dropped about 10 percentage points from the freeze until now. Against Cloud, Zelda only dropped 2.

Like Luster said, it's possible there's some rally spillover for Cloud since Cloud started with close to 60% against Zelda and the Cloud/Zelda match had 91 more votes than Cloud/Mario did at the freeze.
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Theose x-stats seem pretty reasonable. Too bad Samus couldn't face Cloud, so where to place Zelda will forever remain a mystery. Still, lowering Zelda and Snake makes things look better.
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Funny if cloud ends up winning by so much here that the raw x stats read Mario > Zelda
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Haste_2 posted...

Theose x-stats seem pretty reasonable. Too bad Samus couldn't face Cloud, so where to place Zelda will forever remain a mystery. Still, lowering Zelda and Snake makes things look better.

Unless we get some good bonus matches to get a better idea of the Noble Nine character strengths. This is the best proposal for a bonus match set-up:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77296482
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KamikazePotato posted...

Link - 50
Samus Aran - 39.96
Cloud Strife - 39.48
Mario - 39.28
Zelda - 36.38

Stats have Samus>Mario>Zelda, when we literally saw Zelda>Mario and Mario>Samus twice. If there was ever a time to say it, LOL X STATS.

(not criticizing your adjustment btw, I think Samus IS indirectly #2 and Zelda IS most likely to be 5th of those characters if we ran the contest again, its just a funny warning to not use stats.)
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My first reaction was to the tune of "Of course Zelda is getting bandwagoned" but the more I think about it the less sure I am.

It's the Samus/Snake match that ultimately kind of messes everything up because if you try to work out what Samus should get on Snake by way of extrapolating through the dubious path of Mario, Seph, Tifa, and Zelda... you get a much closer match than we actually got.

Like, Zelda's number on Sonic mostly checks out with what happened with Snake - both in Zelda/Snake and Snake/Sonic. Snake does do better against Sonic, but it's just a point so I think you can just shrug and say "variance." It's trying to explain what happened with Mario where you get into some trouble.

We'd have solved a lot with Samus/Cloud and Samus/Zelda but alas we're left to guess.
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Well, 62% on Aerith isn't really 'beats Mario'-worthy either. That division doesn't work if you adjust it up.
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Hey kiramaya, I will only be able to hentai rally Zelda in 12 hours from now

With that said, not sure I want
She made it very clear she can't come close to Link so no reason to bandwagon her anymore
If she wins here it might just make the "beat 4 NNers in one contest" more impressive but that's it

I also have Mario in the bracket so who cares
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Yeah Cloud deserves another shot, probably will get over 40 this time

Since I think he's gotten a little stronger since the bracket became all Nintendo

Zelda got 56% on Aerith the same year that she got 45% on Samus, so it doesn't seem that weird.

Aerith looked "weaker" since 2006, but all her matches were SFF fests or that weird match with Shepard (who got fed to Draven round 2), so it's possible she didn't decline that much. Not to mention she overperformed against Fox.
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xp1337 posted...

It's the Samus/Snake match that ultimately kind of messes everything up.

Is it possible this match result is so out of whack because of bracket voting, Maybe it was a lot more comforting to people to see Samus obviously going to lose to Mario the next round then risk a Snake/Mario clash.
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