Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew

(+) Yeah! (+)

You're right, war is always for the middle east.

Master Moltar posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7238

Dante doesn't look too crazy here, but Cuphead could just be a little stronger than expected.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7239

Very good showing from Lightning, but probably doesn't mean too much if Chloe is just super weak.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7240

Chun wins, but nothing impressive.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7241

Pretty good showing from Ganon, what you would expect from a favorite to take the Division

Next Round Thoughts: Lightning probably won't embarrass herself, but Dante still looks to be the favorite. Ganondorf also looks to put up a good number on Chun-Li.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 4
transience: 4
Leonhart: 4
Kleenex: 4
Guest: 4

Crew Accuracy Challenge: BetrayedTangy gets the point for Dante, SuperNiceDog gets the point for Lightning, pjbasis gets the point for Chun-Li, and transience gets the point for Ganondorf

Guest: 3 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog, pjbasis)
transience: 1
Moltar: 0
Leonhart: 0
Kleenex: 0

yay! Gj guests
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three way hi-five!
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

that's not true

i picked the contest winner this time

that never happens

War has changed
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War13104 picked Kefka over Crono?
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transience posted...

so ~67% of our votes come from registered users, huh? I wonder how much that fluctuates from match to match. I bet not much

Overall, we finished with almost a even 50/50 split of registered/anonymous votes on Day 1 with the registered votes making up 50.18% of the total votes.

In the Tidus/DK match, the board vote was 78.16% registered users. This dropped down to 65.86% registered users by the end of the Power Hour. I'd assume the other 3 matches were very similar as the vote totals are nearly identical on all 4 matches anyways.
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I'm happy Aya is winning she's just about my favorite Square character
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Round 1 Zero vs. Primrose

Moltars Analysis

Easy stuff here. Zero is a strong contest staple and Primrose is an unknown newcomer. In these types of matches, its always safer to go with the character you know is strong.

Moltars Bracket: Zero

Moltars Prediction: Zero 82%

transiences Analysis

Primrose might be the weakest character in this contest. Zero's going to destroy him/her/whatever I don't feel like looking.

I'd write more but there's a lot more to say in later matches today. Gotta pace myself!

transience's prediction: Zero with 86.44%

Leonharts Analysis

Octopath Traveler has the same sort of problem that Final Fantasy VI does. Its a big ensemble cast, so I doubt you can find any sort of consensus among the fanbase about which character is the best one. It also has a very big problem that FFVI doesnt: Its about 90% less popular. Octopath Traveler has reviewed and sold pretty well so far, but its a bit too recent for the game or its characters to make a dent in the contest quite yet, especially against someone like Zero. I think Primrose might do better than people expect, but its still gonna be a blowout.

Leonharts Vote: Zero

Leonharts Prediction: Zero with 74.50%

Kleenexs Analysis

I actually thought Primrose was like some Touhou character or something before doing this writeup. Now that I click on the picture and see its the character from Octopath Traveller, Im actually somehow how surprised she made the bracket. But whatever! Regardless of her origin, Zero should crush this match. Hes still one of the near-elites and shouldnt have much trouble slicing up most of this division. Im not sure how much GameFAQs cares about Octopath, so the numbers could get pretty ugly.

Kleenexs Prediction: Zero with 79%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

After Chloe Price found herself almost tripled by Lightning, a tripling is also a very real possibility here with Zero being even stronger than Lightning. Zero is established as a high midcarder going up against a character whose game is just barely over 3 months old at this point. Playrate of Primrose's game may hinder her strength with it being Switch exclusive, but the game Octopath Traveler is far more of a GameFAQs type game than Life is Strange which likely means Primrose will be stronger than Chloe Price. Another thing is that the Switch has already surpassed the Wii U's all-time high ownership mark on the site in just 17 months, so Octopath Traveler won't be hindered as much compared to games that were Wii U exclusives.

When you have a character of unknown strength in a match, nailing down a fairly accurate prediction can be difficult. In a contest like the Oracle Challenge, I'm always trying to aim for a prediction within 1% of the final result by looking at the potential range of the winner's percentage and picking a prediction that gives me the best shot of getting within 1%. The potential range of Zero's percentage is a lot wider because of potential blowout percentages (75% or more) and going up against a character of unknown strength.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Zero

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Zero - 76.63%

Crew Consensus: Zero chance he loses this match
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gj guests I might have to get in on the action

Round 1 Zidane Tribal vs. Knuckles the Echidna

Moltars Analysis

This is a good looking match between two lower-midcarders on paper. Zidanes last 1v1 result was a close loss to Ike. Thats nothing great, but was seen as a good showing from Zidane since he had definitely been fodder before 2010. He continued to look decent in 2013, despite getting stuck in a crazy Squirtle match.

Knuckles clearly used to look stronger during the yearly 1v1 contests over a decade ago, but his latest outings havent been too great. He beat Cecil in a close match in 2010, and then won over a Seifer and Celes split in 2013 in unimpressive fashion. Zidane should be stronger than all those other Square characters. Its actually a bit amusing that it seems Zidane has gotten strong enough while Knux has fallen enough to put this match into question.

Since this is GameFAQs, the registered voter stipulation helps Zidane, as this is one of the last bastions of old (and oldish-new) Square FF fandom on the net. It is possible that the Sonic franchise is going to look better after some well-received games, which helps Knux. Its also possible that due to falling on the same day as Monika/Wario, Knuckles could benefit from outside voters getting rallied to that match.

Basically, it seems like Zidane should be the favorite, but Knuckles cant be counted out. Zidane should be slightly stronger between the two, but Knuckles could easily swing the result in his favor due to the day.

Moltars Bracket: Zidane

Moltars Prediction: Zidane 52%

transiences Analysis

This could be good! Run this in the contest's golden years and Knuckles probably wins handily. Knuckles has been historically overrated for a decade now after the gigantic Magus upset and requisite bandwagon effect after putting up 46%ish on Squall, but he's still quite legit. Sonic characters have fallen off over time but Knuckles has never fallen THAT far.

Knuckles could only manage 52% against Cecil though. Old Square has had a major resurgence over the last, I guess it's been almost a decade now. Cecil went from getting tripled by Kirby to almost beating Knuckles. Kefka went from a pitiful loss to Diablo to becoming sorta kinda legit. Vivi's win over Mario is BS but it happened to yet another old Square guy. And Zidane.. he had a hell of a match vs. Ike (I think it was a day match, and if so, he wins in a night match or is a coin flip in a 24h match), and beat Ridley pretty soundly.

FF9 has done something really remarkable: it's repeatedly outdone FF8 in best FF polls and the character results are showing that people are starting to trend its way. FF9 has always lined up with old Square in terms of trends and character strength ups and downs. FF9 is a very 'gamefaqs' kinds of game, and as the site's voters constrict tighter and tighter, games like FF9 do better and better. Now, is that enough to beat Knuckles? That's what I have in my bracket. I think it's a long shot, but the double vote factor does give me hope.

Now, there's a complicating factor here - if Monika happens. We'll get there later today, but if it happens, I expect the weeb vote to push more towards Knuckles than Zidane. The two pictures don't do Zidane any favors!

transience's prediction: Knuckles with 52.51%

Leonharts Analysis

When Cecil got 48% on Knuckles in 2010 (combined with how well Kefka and Terra did that year), many of us saw that as a clear sign of a Dissidia boost. Fast-forward a few years to Cecil getting wrecked by Wrex and Knuckles getting smashed by Samus (and not beating Catherine by very much), and now it looks like hes just weaker nowadays. He seems to be a far cry from his old self, like many Sonic characters.
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On the other hand, Zidane appears to be on the opposite trajectory. He performed poorly his first couple of contests, but he seems to gradually be getting a little better each time, especially as Final Fantasy IXs reputation seems to be improving on the site as well. He had an easy win over Ridley and did pretty well on Dante in CBIX, and youd have to think hes more popular than Cecil at this point. He looks like the clear favorite at this point to me.

The one thing that could give Knuckles a much-needed boost is his playable role in Sonic Mania, which sold and reviewed extremely well for a Sonic game. Will it be enough? Speaking as a big Knux fan, I sure hope so, but I kinda doubt it. That being said, Ill gladly sacrifice a point here to be wrong!

Leonharts Vote: Knuckles the Echidna

Leonharts Prediction: Zidane Tribal with 52.95%

Kleenexs Analysis

Oh boy. If you go back 10 years ago, theres no way this match is even close. Knuckles would win, no questions asked. Since then, Sonic characters have been in a Tailsspin. Theyve taken a Big drop in strength, and its not all sunshines and Roses and I think most people expect them to continue that Vector. The Silver lining here is that Sonic Mania might have been able to get out from under that Shadow a bit. This match isnt necessarily against the Cream of the Final Fantasy crop, either. Zidane has never really set his matches aBlaze, but with Vivi looking as Mighty as he did last year, I think he might have a shot.



please dont kick me off the crew

Kleenexs Prediction: Zidane with 52%

Guests Analysis - ZenOfThunder

There arent enough hours in the day to talk about Knuckles the Echidna.

Knuckles the Echidna has had a long two years, splitting his time up between appearances in Sonic Mania, Sonic Mania Plus, the new Sonic comic by IDW, the wonderful Sonic Boom animated series and the game Im not going to talk about, the Sonic Mania Adventures animated shorts, an Assist Trophy in Smash Ultimate, and becoming an intoxicatingly widespread meme that had a chokehold on the internet for the better part of a month. All this while still protecting the Master Emerald.

Meanwhile, I searched Zidane Game Appearances Giant Bomb on Google and got this:



Yes, that one soccer player who did the headbutt is STILL the most popular Zidane, even on a video game website. Zinedine Zidane for CBXI.

My point is, Knuckles makes it his job to stay relevant, and even when his games dont make a splash, hes still beloved by fans not only of the Sonic series, but video game fans in general. Bitches love Knuckles.
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Knuckles may have looked bad in 2013 by giving up so much to Celes, but at the time, Sonic was at, in my opinion, the lowest point it had ever been at. You can make an argument that Sonic 06 was rock bottom, but keep in mind that between 06 and 2013, Sonic really put out nothing significant to redeem itself. The franchise hit rock bottom and kept on tunneling. With shovel claws.

Sonic Lost World was the culmination of the fanbase and franchise kind of stagnating at the bottom of that pit. Now, in the age of ironic shitposting, Sonic has risen from the grave with an equally ironic official Twitter and a fanbase reinvigorated by bad memes. The Sonic franchise generates its own memes and buzz, which is something other companies would kill for. The Twitter barely has to do any work.

Also, there were some actual good Sonic games recently, which helped. Probably a lot.

What has Zidane done lately? Uhhhh Dissidia I guess. World of Final Fantasy? Was he in that? I guess theres a Switch port that isnt out yet, wow. Zidane aint no Vivi.

My next point: Check the results of this Board 8 poll:



You may say that 50 votes is a small sample size, but when votals are suspected to be at an all time low, 50 votes is basically a tenth of the fucking site at this point. If you cant get Board 8 to support an FF character over a Sonic character, what chance will Zidane have on the main page?

Also of note: When the Doki Doki Literature Club rally comes knocking, who are they going to vote for? The anime monkey boy that represents the franchise every casual thinks is dominant on this site, or Knuckles the Echidna, the beloved true mascot of the Sonic franchise?

Knuckles wins this one, and Im going to be that guy who says that he wins it fairly comfortably.



Knuckles with 58.61%

someone please respond to my write-up with Ill make you eat those words thnx

Crew Consensus: Another split! This time the Crew slightly favors Zidane.
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Master Moltar posted...

Since then, Sonic characters have been in a Tailsspin

Damn it
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Hm yeah I do kinda think any rallied votes favor Knuckles. Had not considered that when throwing my bracket together.

After seeing this Vivi display I still kinda think Zidane wins though. I know Vivi has always been stronger but man he's looking like a legit Mario killer here
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here are two images i couldn't fit into my writeup anywhere:




thank you for your patience
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zen i think you have a bit too much confidence in knuckles
though i do agree with the whole monika helps him thing

i still hope he pulls through.
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honestly my write-up is half joking with a splash of wishful thinking

in the back of my head I know he's going to lose here, but I was trying to write about his loss and it turned into me having Knuckles winning by a lot

that's also why I didn't sign up for any more write-ups yet, I wanna get out of that mindset
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hey a split. Kleenex get out of here
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Round 1 Noctis Lucis Caelum vs. Master Hand

Moltars Analysis

Remember Kuja vs. Master Hand? First thing that came to mind to a lot of people when this match appeared on the bracket. Basically, it was a match where Kuja seemed like a lock, but he flopped in the end and Master Hand won without too much trouble.

Noctis is no Kuja.

...I hope

Noctis is the lead of his game, and FFXV does have decent strength on the site (it won GotY in 2016, even though it was a weak field). Yeah Lightning might have lost against DK with Falco in the poll, but Master Hand is far weaker than those other Nintendo characters. Plus based on what weve seen in this contest so far, DK and Lightning might be stronger than 2013 let on.

He wont be as strong, but if Noctis isnt too far from Lightning in strength, he should be able to take this without much trouble.

Moltars Bracket: Noctis

Moltars Prediction: Noctis 56%

transiences Analysis

Oh god. OH GOD. I have vivid, vivid memories of the Kuja match. It's one of the most crushing defeats in my long contest history.

It wasn't just that Kuja lost to a stupid glove. It's how it happened. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but it was the greatest day vote wave in contest history. It went from being a close one up front to something like a 12000 vote win for Master Hand. THE GLOVE. (Fact check: it was only 5500 votes. It felt like a million.)

I had Kuja winning 2 rounds so this was particularly traumatic. And now, here we are, in a weird gamefaqs environment, facing goddamn Noctis, who is Kuja redux. Do you think I'm going to pick that stupid looking guy from a mediocre FF game vs. this contest killer?

I.. probably should. If the weeb vote hits, it's going to hit for Noctis hard. That is, unless there's a meme vote going. Monika isn't a meme vote so I don't think that happens. You know what? Screw that. I'm picking the glove. I'll pick it next round too.

transience's prediction: THE GLOVE with 53.44%

Leonharts Analysis

You cant look at this match and not immediately think of Master Hands win over Kuja in the Villains Contest, one of the most rage-inducing results in contest history that wasnt impacted by allegations of cheating or rallying (Its probably the last time I legitimately got mad about a contest result, in fact!). While the thought of history repeating itself kinda terrifies me here, I think Noctis should be able to manage it here. Master Hand won because Kuja was just terrible (since Robotnik 60/40d the glove the very next round). While I dont expect Noctis to be super strong, I think the protagonist of a Final Fantasy game will be worth more than the villain of FFIX back when the game was at its nadir on this site because this site leans heavily toward heroes over villains. While FFXV isnt going to be anywhere near as strong as the classics, I think the site knows and likes it enough for Noctis to beat the glove.

Of course, I am fully prepared to be disappointed yet again because I dont think its unthinkable for Master Hand to win here. I just hope he doesnt!

Leonharts Vote: Noctis Lucis Caelum

Leonharts Prediction: Noctis Lucis Caelum with 54.60%
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Kleenexs Analysis

How did Master Hand make it back in? The fact that hes even here actually worries me. FFXV is the new kid on the block, which means people hate it now (and apparently have softened on FFXIII in response - gogo Lightning). I dont have a lot of faith in Noctis for precisely that reason. Yes, it won Game of the Year here in 2016, but so did Modern Warfare 2 once upon a time. Most people I know are at best ambivalent towards FF15 or worse - Leon being the sole exception here! I know this is anecdotal evidence, but its tough to go on anything else with an unknown quantity. When you factor in the possibility of rally spillover from the next match, I think Im going to push the button on the upset alarm. Noctis is going to lose to a hand.

Kleenexs Prediction: Master Hand with 54%

Guests Analysis - MZero

(5) Noctis Lucis Caelum vs (12) Master Hand

Relevant Polls

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2003-triforce-division-round-1-dr-robotnik-vs-sin

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2004-triforce-division-round-1-kuja-vs-master-hand

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2012-triforce-division-round-2-dr-robotnik-vs-master-hand

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6576-best-of-2016-game-of-the-year-final-final-vote

In this match, we have a newcomer from Final Fantasy XV, a game with vocal haters but good sales numbers and a GameFAQs Game of the Year win over Pokemon, so it was pretty well received on the site, at least in early 2017. In the red corner, we have Master Hand, a one contest veteran whos making his grand return 13 years after his first and only appearance in the 2005 Villains contest.

So lets talk about that contest, where we saw two worsts in contest history. We all remember Vincents infamous Turks picture back in 2013, but I feel we have largely forgotten the WORST case of pic sabotage ever, when we had Dr. Robotnik against a freakin dorsal fin. Imagine if we had Link vs Marios Left Arm. It was atrocious. Anyway, Eggman only managed 51.3% on the fin, which is pretty disappointing and you have to wonder if Sin, with a decent pic, could have won the match.

In the next match, we had one of the grandest flops ever as Kuja got humiliated by Master Hand. What an embarrassment that was. Anyway, it got even worse because in the very next round, Eggman hung nearly 60% on the glove.

This means Sin was stronger than Master Hand, as Dr. Robotnik put up 8% more on Master Hand than on Sin. Now, not only do I think Noctis will obviously be stronger than Sin, but hell definitely be stronger than his dorsal fin. Im in the minority here, but I dont think this will be particularly close, barring some kind of rally. Noctis should take this with ease.

Noctis wins with 60% of the vote

Crew Consensus: Two splits in the same day! This time, were slightly favoring Noctis.
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I've let Guest down. Neku was pretty trash after all!
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hail the glove
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in reality, there's pretty much no realistic chance for Noctis to lose to the glove. I can't let that 2005 match go though
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Master Moltar posted...

Knuckles may have looked bad in 2013 by giving up so much to Celes, but at the time, Sonic was at, in my opinion, the lowest point it had ever been at. You can make an argument that Sonic 06 was rock bottom, but keep in mind that between 06 and 2013, Sonic really put out nothing significant to redeem itself. The franchise hit rock bottom and kept on tunneling. With shovel claws.

Sonic Lost World was the culmination of the fanbase and franchise kind of stagnating at the bottom of that pit. Now, in the age of ironic shitposting, Sonic has risen from the grave with an equally ironic official Twitter and a fanbase reinvigorated by bad memes. The Sonic franchise generates its own memes and buzz, which is something other companies would kill for. The Twitter barely has to do any work.

Also, there were some actual good Sonic games recently, which helped. Probably a lot.

What has Zidane done lately? Uhhhh Dissidia I guess. World of Final Fantasy? Was he in that? I guess theres a Switch port that isnt out yet, wow. Zidane aint no Vivi.

My next point: Check the results of this Board 8 poll:



You may say that 50 votes is a small sample size, but when votals are suspected to be at an all time low, 50 votes is basically a tenth of the fucking site at this point. If you cant get Board 8 to support an FF character over a Sonic character, what chance will Zidane have on the main page?

Also of note: When the Doki Doki Literature Club rally comes knocking, who are they going to vote for? The anime monkey boy that represents the franchise every casual thinks is dominant on this site, or Knuckles the Echidna, the beloved true mascot of the Sonic franchise?

Knuckles wins this one, and Im going to be that guy who says that he wins it fairly comfortably.



Knuckles with 58.61%

someone please respond to my write-up with Ill make you eat those words thnx

Crew Consensus: Another split! This time the Crew slightly favors Zidane.

Zen with the AMAZING writeup. WOW. Makes me want to both vote for Knuckles and go for him in Oracle
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save_us_glove

Round 1 Monika vs. Wario

Moltars Analysis

So this match goes one of two ways. Depending on what option you predict will happen, that determines who you have winning here.

1) Wario wins based on his natural strength and the DDLC rally never picks up steam. DDLC is niche, whereas even if casuals dont love Wario, they at least recognize him and give him their vote (and since voting in every match for the day is essentially required, apathy votes definitely help Wario here).

2) The DDLC rally blows up and propels Monika ahead of Wario and she wins.

Ill bet on the former scenario for now, but whatever happens were definitely in for an interesting day, ahaha!

Moltars Bracket: Wario

Moltars Prediction: Wario 60%

transiences Analysis

"Monika? Who's that?"

I remember this exact moment as I was filling out my bracket. I clicked on the little ? and felt a twinge go down my spine. I think I said something out loud like "ohhhhhh crap". I kinda panicked for a second. Why did we do this? And why did we give her such a pathetic path?

I picked Wario after a minute of thought, because I just don't want to engage with trying to predict offsite rallies. DDLC is the closest thing we have to 2018's Undertale, except it's maybe a year too late. It relates to people in much the same way. DDLC still isn't on the level of an Undertale, but a stiff breeze can blow over this contest with such low vote totals (though they're higher than I expected), and a sneeze would knock over a nobody like Wario.

Ulti's been working overtime on the DDLC subreddit and even gotten a link posted on the banner to the contest already. It's been there for days which probably dilutes it a little bit. The DDLC sub isn't huge but it's enough to knock over Wario. I'll go with Wario because, like I said, I don't want to play guess the rally. Prove it to me in round 1 and I'll pick you the rest of the contest. You usually need an easy path to get something going and Monika certainly has that. Now she just needs to not die.

transience's prediction: Wario with 56.68%
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Leonharts Analysis

Heres our first chance for some wonkiness. The Doki Doki Literature Club Subreddit has already been advertising for the contest, so you can expect to see some influence here. How much? I have no idea. Im not the person to ask on stuff like this. The good news for the Monika rally is that Wario isnt a very high bar to clear for victory. Every successful rally needs an easy first match, and Monikas got it.

Ive just been staring at my computer screen for the last few minutes trying to figure out what to do here. I might just hedge my bets by picking Wario low in case the impact isnt that great (although I dont expect the registered votes count double thing to be much of a deterrent), and then just be ready to declare the contest over once Monika wins and pick her every match after this. Yeah, sure, why not.

Also, there shouldnt be any rally spillover if these DDLC fans are consistent. If they dont vote Just Monika, theyre as fraudulent as Mewtwo.

Leonharts Vote: Just Monika

Leonharts Prediction: Wario with 55.55%

Kleenexs Analysis

Well we had a nice two days, but now its time to see what kind of contest this is going to be. Of all the rally potential candidates, Monkia is the one Im most worried about. It seems like its the fanbase most interested in doing some rallying, it seems sizeable enough to swing matches that are only pulling in 20k votes, and she has a pretty easy first two rounds. Wario sucks. Hes only good against complete bottom feeding garbage, which makes him a perfect launching-off point for this rally to get going. Ill be happy to be proven wrong here, but if Monika wins this match, Id start getting worried.

Kleenexs Prediction: Monika with 55%

Crew Consensus: Sometimes you'll find yourself facing a difficult decision... When that happens, don't forget to vote Monika! That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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i repeat

i have more faith in Ness to stop Monika

that's how low my opinion of Wario in these things is
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Master Moltar posted...

Also, there shouldnt be any rally spillover if these DDLC fans are consistent. If they dont vote Just Monika, theyre as fraudulent as Mewtwo.

But you have to vote in all four matches...
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wait, our first guest flake-out is monika vs wario? really?
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I'm so certain Monika will get rallied and stain another contest. Still picked Wario out of spite
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youre all welcome for stopping the curse
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I had Knuckles for the entire bracket making process and changed to Zidane on the last day when I saw that he was the favorite.

Now I have literally no idea why I believed that, Knuckles is definitely gonna win.
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Master Moltar posted...

How did Master Hand make it back in? The fact that hes even here actually worries me.

He won a spot in the NRT somehow, so this is entirely a B8 creation.
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oh, that makes me less worried then

oh well
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Lopen's Analysisx4

Zero v Primrose
Not too much to talk about here other than placing how far above 75% Zero goes. I'm thinking not much. I'm expecting a slight Mega Man downturn and Octopath seems like the type of game GameFAQs would like and I noticed some talk about it when it came out, so she'll probably be around Neku's level, maybe a bit weaker. I expect Zero to be weaker than Ganondorf this year. So yeah probably slightly better than what Neku did overall.

Zero with 77.04%

Zidane v Knuckles
Kind of a coinflip match. I like (well, don't like, go Knuckles!) Zidane to win. Vivi looked like a powerhouse and I've always felt Zidane was probably a bit underrated on these. The times of yore when Knuckles beat Magus are long ago-- I don't see Sonic stock as going anywhere but down over the past what, 13 years. I think that's the last time Knux did anything relevant in one of these.

Zidane with 54.05%

Noctis v Master Hand
I could see this going 60-40 in either direction, but my gut is that Noctis takes this fairly easily. I feel like Master Hand in 2005 was benefiting from the inanimate object vote which has been run into the ground by now so he should be weaker than ever. But I mean, you could tell me Nintendo voters are in force this year and will vote for literally anything Nintendo and crush Noctis and it wouldn't surprise me that much either. Don't mistake the high percentage for high confidence.

Noctis with 62.78%

Monika v Wario
I think Wario is a roadblock that will be up to the task to stop any rally from getting momentum out of the gate. The Doki reddit isn't very big, and while the reddit is actively encouraging to rally, Monika is likely dirt weak without any rally force. Keep in mind that Draven, had he faced Wario in round 1 a few years back, probably would've been stopped cold, as his non rallied strength (from a much bigger reddit) was below that of Chie Satonaka. I imagine Monika will be at that or weaker, and Wario is significantly stronger than Jak or Chie so I mean, yeah, it's not going to be trivial. I also think that any sort of round 1 rally is more likely to be mostly legitimate and not straight cheating as outside forces are going to have less time to figure out how to crack the system. So yeah Wario gonna win.

Wario with 64.49%
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(Feel free to use me as guest if guest for Monika does not show)
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thats the plan
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.
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Poor Leonhart, not realizing having to pick other characters to vote for Monika is a DDLC meme.
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Poor Leonhart, not realizing having to pick other characters to vote for Monika is a DDLC meme.

I've played DDLC!
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Mac Arrowny posted...

Master Moltar posted...

Also, there shouldnt be any rally spillover if these DDLC fans are consistent. If they dont vote Just Monika, theyre as fraudulent as Mewtwo.

But you have to vote in all four matches...

also I wrote this before the contest started and we knew that you had to vote in all four matches

so now if they're consistent they won't vote at all and they'll just go away...!
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Also I'm surprised nobody pointed out the possibility of Monika rallying herself on Twitter.
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ZenOfThunder posted...

honestly my write-up is half joking with a splash of wishful thinking

in the back of my head I know he's going to lose here, but I was trying to write about his loss and it turned into me having Knuckles winning by a lot

that's also why I didn't sign up for any more write-ups yet, I wanna get out of that mindset

man that's what the Guest spot is for!

you guys have no credibility so you can go for the wacky upsets and wacky percentages we wouldn't dare to pick...!
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i remember when i gave moltar a hand-written letter to santa claus asking to help cecil win a contest match

he almost won so it's like asking for 100 video games and getting 3
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I wrote a treatise on PokeFEAR for the pikachu write-up. Which may or may not be full of shit, but why not doing it anyway?

I definitely didnt forget about this and frantically write up a Monika/Wario analysis just now.

>_>
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What can I say about this match that best encompasses the anticipated insanity of Wario: former money miser that now mainly maintains mario-game madness through mini-game monstrosities and Monika: The crazy lady that controls the code of her game?

Bad alliteration solves nothing. We all know its a question of will a rally happen, will it make a difference, is the contest doomed, etc.

KORA'S VOTE: Wario
KORA'S PREDICTION: Monika with 53.38%

CBX is doomed
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go my glove
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yikes Noctis
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