Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew

(+) Yeah! (+)

(which I was planning to do anyway but I like to be dramatic)

Round 1 Sora vs. Ryo Hazuki

Moltars Analysis

The last two times we saw Ryo, he got tripled against Yoshi and Dante. The only question here is if Sora is going to be able to do the same about 15 years later with KH3 hype in his corner.

Moltars Bracket: Sora

Moltars Prediction: Sora 75%

transiences Analysis

Sora should murder Ryo -- they're not even close to being in the same league. Though. one thing I'm feeling from this contest where everyone's been around a long time, is that we probably have our most informed audience ever. They still gravitate towards uber-popular characters, of course, but we're not getting an audience that 80% has never heard of Ryo before. What I'm trying to say is that I think the days of a Tanner-esque beatdown is behind us. It'll take something truly unusual, or a Link/Ganondorf type situation, for us to break into the high 80s.

Also, this is Sora.

transience's prediction: Sora with 72.22%

Leonharts Analysis

This match features a character who is finally getting a highly anticipated third game that many fans thought would never come against Sora. Seriously though, its kind of nice to have Ryo back in the contests again. Its been a while since hes been tripled by a high midcarder! Seriously though, Sora has always had a hard time landing big blowouts. He struggled to double Laharl in 2010, and even at his peak, the best he could manage against Tingle in 2006 was barely a tripling (which was viewed as a disappointment, as was him barely getting 70% against Agent 47 in 2005 when we thought he might be Neo-Tanner). I think theres a subset of the voting population that just thinks Sora is a lame dork (and theyre not totally wrong), so that holds him back from going super high with blowouts. Even with Kingdom Hearts III hype at his sails, I wont be surprised if Sora doesnt go as high as most people here think he will.

Leonharts Vote: Sora

Leonharts Prediction: Sora with 73.11%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Shenmue 3 boost vs. Kingdom Hearts 3 boost!!

I think Sora is being overrated a bit by a lot of people - even with KH3 actually on the horizon. Thats probably going to be masked here though, because holy crap Ryo Hazuki. This dude has to be only a step above Tanner-level at this point, right? Is Shenmue 3 hype actually real? How did he get enough nominations to make it in this contest?? How many times to have to ask that???

Kleenexs Prediction: Sora with 83%

Guests Analysis - RoseChevalier

It's me, former Crew Member and all-around super expert Rose. Moltar won't let me be a regular on the crew anymore because it wouldn't be fair to everyone else if I just took all the accuracy points. I don't blame him.

In this match, we first have to account for the 23 people that actually know who Ryo Hamaguchi is and like him enough to vote for him. Yes, 23. There are exactly 23 people, and no more. You can even double their votes to 46 with the new rules.

So since Ryo Harizama is a non-factor here, the match comes down to Sora Fans vs Anti-Sora Fans. Not to be confused with fans of Anti-Sora, by the way. You really have to be extremely specific when talking Kingdom Hearts. Anyway, once upon a time it was in vogue to hate on Sora for some reason. Like Master Chief, I guess, except there's no actual reason for gamefaqs users to dislike Kingdom Hearts? Then again it's been forty years since KH2, and we've had 37 midquels and prequels in the meantime, so I get it.

But none of that matters anymore. We joked about it for so long it became a meme, then the meme died, then the meme came back. But now it's finally, really, actually, definitely happening. KH3 is coming soon.

I contend that even people who have spent the last few decades low key hating on Sora are at least a little excited that this is finally happening. It's monumental. So I think the Sora hate will be minimized this year to a level we've never seen before. Ryo Hasegawa will never know what hit him.

Sora 77.77%
Ryo Hanafuda 22.23%

Crew Consensus: Ryo finds no sailors here, just a Sora beatdown.
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oh I got the high prediction
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also real talk I joked about not knowing who ryo is but that wasn't a joke, I assumed it was a tekken dude
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RoseChevalier posted...

oh I got the high prediction

not quite
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LeonhartFour posted...

RoseChevalier posted...

oh I got the high prediction

not quite

oh i have kleenex blinders
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Keep in mind Ryo won a match way back in 2002 and the board had no idea he sucked.
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Rose posted...

except there's no actual reason for gamefaqs users to dislike Kingdom Hearts?

have you played those games recently

Kingdom Hearts make awesome speed run games. Turns out skipping all the cutscenes makes them way better.
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So next set of matches we'll get a decent read on a strong square character. Looking forward to it
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That feeling when you thought you picked Zidane but then check your bracket and realize you actually chose Knuckles

...and then you look down and see Noctis > Wario
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I actually have Master Hand in Round 3, because Wario winning two matches didn't look right.

To think one of those two will be in Round 3 though, holy god was this a weak fourpack.
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Round 1 Neptune vs. Pokemon Trainer Red

Moltars Analysis

How did this end up as an 8 seed vs 9 seed?

Red was hanging around with Noble Nine characters the last time we saw him, so hes not going to have trouble against a Neptunia character.

Moltars Bracket: Red

Moltars Prediction: Red 76%

transiences Analysis

Look, I'm a bit of a video game historian and pride myself on knowing at least a little about a lot of video games. Hyperdimension Neptunia is one that I can honestly say I know *nothing* about. I think Inafune was in it or had some role with it? That's about all I remember. I don't think Red is anywhere near his Pokemon but I am curious to see if he can hang with Sora. I'm always waiting for Sora to fail and one day it's gonna happen!

transience's prediction: Red with 75.55%

Leonharts Analysis

Are Uranus jokes still funny? I was thinking of just making a bunch of those instead of trying to analyze (Uranus) this match. Either way, theyd be more entertaining than this match or anything I can manage to say about it. I dont know that theres any number Red could realistically put up here (in Uranus) that would make me feel like hell definitely beat (Uranus) Sora next round because Hyperdimension Neptunia has gotta be one of the more niche things in the contest, so I dont think this match means much of anything for the big showdown in (Uranus) round 2.

Leonharts Vote: Pokemon Trainer Red

Leonharts Prediction: Pokemon Trainer Red with 80.78%

Kleenexs Analysis

Nep Nep is here! Somehow as an eight seed. I have no idea what possessed people to nominate her now of all times, but whatever. Is this a rally thing I dont know about? Because Im pretty sure shes in the running for weakest character in the bracket otherwise. Then again...look how many people were excited for Cyberdimension Neptunia: 4 Goddesses Online last year!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6852-which-scheduled-first-half-of-october-release-are-you-most

Suck it, Forza.

I think Red is another character whose 2013 results are pretty fraudulent (spoilers this is pretty much everyone in 2013), but he does have enough inherent strength from have POKEMON in his name, not that he needed it. Like, Chloe would probably have beaten Neptune.

Pokemon Trainer Red with 78%

Crew Consensus: Nep Nep? More like Nope Nope
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I dunno I'd vote Neptune over Chloe, she looks more anime.

No guest writeup?
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guests better step it up
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If guest doesn't show up anyone can do it right

i'm up boys let me at it

handsomeboy2012 posted...

If guest doesn't show up anyone can do it right

ya

but they can also post it here themselves before the match starts and it still counts
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huh I went the highest on a Pokemon character

I don't know how I feel about that
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MasterMoltar posted...

handsomeboy2012 posted...

If guest doesn't show up anyone can do it right

ya

but they can also post it here themselves before the match starts and it still counts

Well, in the event @spooky96 doesn't show up and post an analysis prior to the next set of matches commencing, feel free to use this rushed up guest analysis below.

paulg235's Emmergency Guest Write-Up (Neptune vs. Pokemon Trainer Red)
Are we all in agreement that random anime girl #20181022 isn't going to do bugger all tomorrow?
Are we all in agreeement that Red (regardless of how you feel about his contest strength entering this contest) is gonna mop the floor with said random anime girl tomorrow?
Yes?
Than there's nothing more to be said.

Winner - Pokemon Trainer Red by 81.59%

Edit: I messed up by putting Than instead of Then. I'm leaving it there.
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I prefer not to have the guest slot as I don't want to give the mongrel guests points.
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Master Moltar posted...

I'm always waiting for Sora to fail and one day it's gonna happen!

did you miss the last two Character Battles or something?
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those arent really failing. Im talking dropping down near Tidus.
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well you're better off waiting for the contest right after KH3 not the one right before

Sora might still lose to Red anyway but he'll probably be stronger this year than he's been the last couple contests
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Uhhh did I sign up for another guest slot? I forgot
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I guess we should post the list in here because people can't be bothered to go back into the sign-up topic...!

Sora vs. Ryo Hazuki - RoseChevalier
Neptune vs. Pokemon Trainer Red - spooky96
Crash Bandicoot vs. Cecil Harvey - pjbasis
Big Boss vs. Ridley - Ranticoot
Alucard vs. Princess Peach - Luster Soldier
Yuna vs. Godot - ZeldaTPLink
Kefka vs. L-Block - Xeybozn
Kazuma Kiryu vs. Bomberman - tennisboy213

2B vs. Cayde-6 - Black Turtle
Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Ness - TsunamiXXVIII
Terra Branford vs. Charizard - MetalmindStats
Bowser vs. Gordon Freeman - SuperNiceDog
Phoenix Wright vs. Chris Redfield - DoctorJimmy133
Ike vs. Joel - Hbthebattle
Estelle Bright vs. Isaac - garetha200
Kirby vs. Guile - NowItsAngeTime
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Well didn't that work out perfectly
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LeonhartFour posted...

huh I went the highest on a Pokemon character

I don't know how I feel about that

how do you feel about voting for one

Leonhart's analysis posted...

Are Uranus jokes still funny?

No.
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tennisboy213 posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

huh I went the highest on a Pokemon character

I don't know how I feel about that

how do you feel about voting for one

I don't hate it as much as most people think I do

I just don't care about it enough to be excited to see it stomping everything
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Lopen posted...

Leonhart's analysis posted...

Are Uranus jokes still funny?

Yes.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Lopen posted...

Leonhart's analysis posted...

Are Uranus jokes still funny?

Yes.

Now I'm in a doctored chain quote this is horrible.
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Lopen posted...

Now I'm in a doctored chain quote this is horrible.

so is Uranus LOLOLOLOLO
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Master Moltar posted...

Then again...look how many people were excited for Cyberdimension Neptunia: 4 Goddesses Online last year!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6852-which-scheduled-first-half-of-october-release-are-you-most

Obviously means we should have gotten Detective Castellanos instead!

(He's from the evil within)
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Round 1 Crash Bandicoot vs. Cecil Harvey

Moltars Analysis

Pre-contest, this looked like a pretty safe bet for Cecil. Weve seen both these guys before, and Cecil clearly looked better in both 2010 and 2013.

the times are achanging tho

Crash has seen a bit of a resurgence as of late, so it is possible hes going to be stronger this year. Plus, after Spyro didnt collapse against Chun-Li, and Square looked bad against any opponent worth a damn so far, this doesnt seem like much of a lay-up anymore.

The difference here though is that Crash is a Sony icon going up against Final Fantasy, which is THE Sony series on GameFAQs. FFIV has been released on several Nintendo systems as well, so theres definitely some crossover between the fanbases. I think this means Cecil stands up a little better against a non-Nintendo and non-Square opponent like Crash.

Moltars Bracket: Cecil

Moltars Prediction: Cecil 52%

transiences Analysis

I picked this match and my bracket on day 1 and somehow glossed over it the rest of the contest. I didn't even know it was a thing until I started writing this one up! (I really didn't spend as much time as usual poring over contest matches this time around -- which I think is probably for the best.)

This match is actually pretty hotly debatable, especially if you think that Knuckles's performance the other day suggests that Cecil is halfway legit. This match is kinda like a baby Knuckles/Zidane match actually. You've got a 90s icon against a lesser FF main. Cecil and Zidane are probably as closely tied as you can get, actually, since FF9 is basically just an FF4 remake.

Zidane didn't especially impress the other day, and I think Crash, unlike Spyro, actually does have some redeeming nostalgic value. His remake/collection that came out.. this year? last year? actually seemed to resonate with some people. That crazy UC4 cameo was pretty good too. Overall I think Crash is the safe pick here. Cecil could surprise but I feel better going with someone who feels kind of relevant today. Cecil... kinda isn't. I wouldn't be surprised if Cecil pulled it out since he's more gamefaqs-y, but I've been waiting for Cecil and Zidane to show what I think they should be worth for a long time and it just hasn't happened.

transience's prediction: Crash with 55.88%

Leonharts Analysis

If Cecil loses this match, we might as well just officially dub him CHNW and retire him forever (which I would be okay with personally!). I think Crash does have a good chance here though, especially after seeing how well Spyro did on Chun-Li. Crash is going to be stronger than Spyro, and Im not convinced Cecil is any stronger than Chunners. I also think that forcing everyone to vote in every match in order to cast a vote helps Crash because hes a platforming mascot character, and everyone knows who he is by sight. I still dont understand how Allen can be such a big fan of Final Fantasy IV and not realize that Dark Knight Cecil is way more popular than Paladin Cecil (unless hes just one of those weird Paladin fanboys)! The Dark Knight armor is also a more iconic look, even if you cant see Cecils face. I think I still slightly favor Cecil here because I think being an old school FF character will be just enough against a has-been like Crash, but this one feels like a tossup to me at this point. I wont be surprised at either outcome, and I will be ready to laugh at Cecil mercilessly if he blows this!

Leonharts Vote: Crash Bandicoot

Leonharts Prediction: Cecil Harvey with 50.75%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Crash is another one of those characters that can people entrants that literally no one cares about just on name recognition, but then folds to anyone with even a modest amount of strength. Does Cecil have a modest amount of strength? Probably. Hes never won a match, but hes been knocking on the door the past few times weve seen him, and I think Crash is weak enough that hell finally be able to take advantage.

Kleenexs Prediction: Cecil with 53%

Guests Analysis - pjbasis

So my mistake with Zidane > Knuckles was assuming that Zidane would be a lot stronger than Cecil! (There's no sonic mania boost!) Turns out they might actually be very close in strength, so LOL Zidane. But I have no fears Cecil won't finally nab that first win here.

Well maybe a little. But I can't imagine Crash being that much stronger than Spyro, and (I hope) Cecil isn't too much weaker than Chun-Li!

Cecil with 53.41%

Crew Consensus: Crash and burn? Most of us favoring Cecil
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Yeah, not so sure about this one anymore!
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Im alone here? perfect record on the line!
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I think if Cecil wins it's not going to be that close. So of the analyses I find myself thinking Transcience makes the most sense again. I guess Kefka did have that nail biter with Pac-Man that one time but it seems like these type of characters are feast or famine. Still kinda like Cecil to win though.
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transcience posted...

Im alone here? perfect record on the line!

I'm rooting for you...!
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The Mana Sword posted...

Yeah, not so sure about this one anymore!

same

this and another match in the second half of the division (which i'm considering changing my analysis for the latter)
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LeonhartFour posted...

transcience posted...

Im alone here? perfect record on the line!

I'm rooting for you...!

and me for Cecil!
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seriously though why does Allen keep using these lame Paladin pics
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I picked Crash in my bracket as one of those sexy upsets picks you aren't confident with but feel like could happen.

After the recent FF flops I'm feeling great about it.

Anyway now that the tough match of the week has been posted, and my thoughts on Cecil/Crash being opposite Leonhart's, I'm not sure I'll reliably be around for the last so get your intermission of...

Lopens unofficial analysis x4:

Sora vs Ryo Hazuki
I tend to agree with the idea that this is mostly Sora vs not Sora, which is probably going to drive Ryos percentage higher than youd expect vs most stompy foes. And on the other hand Ryo showing up at all is a symptom that maybe Shenmue 3 known to be existing is causing some awareness on the radar of those few Shenmuemaniacs that exist.

Those passionate Shenmuers combined with a known anti-vote base that I dont think is likely going away, KH3 hype or not yeah, lets aim pretty low on Sora here.

Sora with 71.20%

Pkmn Trainer Red vs Neptune
(Neptune)

Pkmn Trainer Red with 74.02%

Cecil vs Crash
As long as Cecil has completed the trials at Mount Ordeals to transform him from the Dark Robot Harvatron into a real Paladin, FF looking like ass be damned, he should have this pretty easily. Crash has been pretty meh in these things. While he looked okay in the last three way contest I feel like thats not going to necessarily convert to 1v1 as its likely the sore thumb factor that carried him through, which is less beneficial in a 1v1. Id take Crash over newer characters, but Cecil should get around that advantage, being old as hell himself.

*checks*

Alright he has successfully completed the trials, so this trial vs Crash Bandicoot should be doable. (who are these people who like Dark Knight Cecil aside from me, Leonhart, who)

Cecil with 58.94%

Big Boss vs Ridley
The true sanity check for how far this Nintendomania really goes. Ridley was thoroughly trounced by Diablo back in the day, and hasnt looked much better at any point since. Ideally the proven commodity Big Boss should be able to ruin him. The thing that should worry you is that Big Boss looks like Victor Sullivan with an eye patch.

But you know what, Im going to bet on Metal Gear being the type that can hold against Nintendo, even if Big Boss looks a little too iconic for his own good here.

Big Boss with 63.83%
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Lopen posted...

(who are these people who like Dark Knight Cecil aside from me, Leonhart, who)

everyone but SBAllen apparently

Cecil would be a low midcarder with a Dark Knight (non-Amano) pic imhotbqh
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I cant get behind Cecil beating Crash bigger than Chun Li beat Spyro or Knuckles beat Zidane. Im feeling like this could be a big Crash win, actually.
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