Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew

(+) Yeah! (+)

I agree with Transcience on that. Keep in mind 2002 until now is roughly the same amount of time vs 2002 from when the NES came out, even ignoring vote totals. I think we're going to see some surprises. Mostly in that I expect some of the bigger names from the PS2 era to approach NN levels (or NN guys to fall to their level, if you prefer) as they're going to be the icons of that generation much like your Links and Marios were of the generation before. Obviously this site skews old so the impact is going to be lessened, but yeah.

I expect a lot of wackiness.
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transcience posted...

I just think looking to past results is fundamentally flawed with a contest like this. Ill talk more about it as the contest goes on and we get more divisive matches.

Thats basically my main thing with the few analysis topics they look too much oj oast results, even omes from 10-13 years ago
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I would be totally fine with tons of wackiness. If this contest completely surprises me over and over again, that would be great! A good contest isn't one where I'm right all the time (otherwise there'd be no good contests).
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Lopen posted...

I agree with Transcience on that. Keep in mind 2002 until now is roughly the same amount of time vs 2002 from when the NES came out, even ignoring vote totals. I think we're going to see some surprises. Mostly in that I expect some of the bigger names from the PS2 era to approach NN levels (or NN guys to fall to their level, if you prefer) as they're going to be the icons of that generation much like your Links and Marios were of the generation before. Obviously this site skews old so the impact is going to be lessened, but yeah.

I expect a lot of wackiness.

i agree with this

but i've not put too much of that thought into my bracket making because all of it is kind of abstract feelings i can't quantify

Lopen posted...

Mostly in that I expect some of the bigger names from the PS2 era to approach NN levels (or NN guys to fall to their level, if you prefer)

is this your subtle way of calling master chief to win the contest
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STElNER posted...

but i've not put too much of that thought into my bracket making because all of it is kind of abstract feelings i can't quantify

well yeah that's the thing

it's hard to really analyze stuff based on "well I just think things will be different than before"

maybe they will be, but it's not much of an analysis

I didn't even necessarily follow past results with my topic. I just put them out there just so people had the information.
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Master Chief is unfortunately against the fellow icon Nathan Drake in round 2.
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I dont go as far as Lopen does. the ps2 doesnt really have icons.. theres Dante and.. yeah, Im not calling for a Jak boost or anything like that.

like, Metal Gear is a joke in 2018 and by that token Snake should look as bad as ever since his series has been aborted. Mega Man just got a new game and has collections up the wazoo on every platform. both guys are in Smash. but Snake could 60/40 Mega Man due to the population shrinking or registered voters counting 2x just as easily as any of those factors.
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transcience posted...

yeah, Im not calling for a Jak boost or anything like that.

you're just lucky he missed the bracket this year
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PS2 era has icons other than Dante. They didn't all debut then but I expect Snake for example to hold his strength because of that.
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I look forward to CB14 in 15 years when Knack finally gets the recognition he deserves.
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The Mana Sword posted...

I look forward to CB14 in 15 years when Knack finally gets the recognition he deserves.

CB14? More like CB12!
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Lopen posted...

PS2 era has icons other than Dante.

SORAAAAA
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pjbasis posted...

Lopen posted...

PS2 era has icons other than Dante.

SORAAAAA

and BIG BOSS
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Lopen posted...

I agree with Transcience on that. Keep in mind 2002 until now is roughly the same amount of time vs 2002 from when the NES came out, even ignoring vote totals. I think we're going to see some surprises. Mostly in that I expect some of the bigger names from the PS2 era to approach NN levels (or NN guys to fall to their level, if you prefer) as they're going to be the icons of that generation much like your Links and Marios were of the generation before. Obviously this site skews old so the impact is going to be lessened, but yeah.

I expect a lot of wackiness.

yeah like a week or two ago I was talking with some people and it seems like casuals look back fondly on spyro at this point in time, so I don't think he'll be total garbage here

LeonhartFour posted...

STElNER posted...

but i've not put too much of that thought into my bracket making because all of it is kind of abstract feelings i can't quantify

well yeah that's the thing

it's hard to really analyze stuff based on "well I just think things will be different than before"

maybe they will be, but it's not much of an analysis

I didn't even necessarily follow past results with my topic. I just put them out there just so people had the information.

same, pre-contest it's all we have to go off of

once actual results come in and we can see what trends are, then we can re-evaluate and look less at the past and more at the present
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I'm going to do the DpOblivion thing to try and hype myself for this contest a bit. No Im not upset that Moltar did not contact me, even if I was mentioned several times as an icon of the Analysis Crew despite said lack of contact-- the PS2 character of the Analysis Crew, if you will. On the plus side that means that I don't get yelled at for half assing write-ups. (Give me a cease and desist Moltar if you want me to not do these, of course)

Lopen's Analysisx4:

Dante vs Cuphead
So as I talked about earlier in this topic, I expect icons of the PS2 era to really get a nice power spike this contest because we've really hit a breakpoint where the PS2 is just that old. Dante will be the first beneficiary and while I don't think Cuphead is going to be the worst type of fodder (because just look at it, that thing is awesome looking), Dante should comfortably smash it.

Dante with 83.70%

Chloe Price vs Lightning
What I said about Dante applies to Lightning to some extent, but she's a PS3 character so I don't see it quite as impactful. I do expect her to be stronger than her previous appearances, though. Strong enough to take out this indie cred goober pretty easily.

Lightning with 68.29%

Spyro vs Chun Li
Despite agreeing with the idea that Spyro could be stronger now in theory cause of him being in the nostalgia zone for age... here's the thing people hyping Spyro don't understand: Spyro was never a big deal. He's not some childhood icon to kids born in the mid 90s much more than Croc is. At best he's the Sonic to Crash Bandicoot's Mario-- and I'd call even that a huge stretch. Hes more like Bonk to Crash Bandicoots Mario. Okay that's probably harsh. Zero the Kamikaze Squirrel? I don't know. Street Fighter's low point (probably now or in the early PS2 era before SF3 was widespread) is still more relevant than Spyro's high point. Chunners should never be in any danger here.

Chun Li with 63.33%

Ganondorf vs Neku Sakuraba
Neku gets a participation award pin. On it, Bacondorf stands triumphant over his body. Neku discards the pin to re-equip Ice Risers. What a sore loser, right? Sore because Ganondorf beat him so bad.

Ganondorf with 70.20%
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I think Spyro is the Gex to Crash's Mario
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I mean how would Moltar be able to do the DDLC thing if he had five people

Spoiler: the fifth member is Link, who is gonna kick Monika's ass.

I was talking about Super Mario World not Super Mario 64 dammit

Unless Gex had some hidden gem on the SNES

That would be pretty rad

Gex is the Gex to Spyro the Dragon's Spyro. Better character why hasn't he ever been nominated.
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oh if we're just relegating it to the SNES then the comparison is obvious

Acro the Acrobat
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That's Aero the Acrobat to you

Spiritual predecessor to Zero the Kamikaze Squirrel

So I was closer to right with the second guess than once believed
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eh whatever

getting the name wrong is perfect for a Spyro comp anyway
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The heck Spyro was actually a popular thing.

Universal Studios pimped that shit like it did with Crash sometimes.
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y'all livin in some weird ass spyro bubble
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i grew up with spyro, i love spyro

spyro is not winning that match
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I mean people know who Spyro is

but Lopen's right he was never anywhere near Crash's level (and we've seen what Crash has historically been worth here)
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I know who Spyro is. I played Spyro's games, even. I just think he's being talked about as some fondly remembered thing when he's more of a thing that existed in a fondly remembered time. I don't think the comparison I made between him and Billy Lee is too far off the mark. Maybe slightly better off than Billy Lee because Billy Lee's name isn't Double Dragon but that's about it.
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I played both Spyro and Crash as a kid and I always cared way more about Spyro, because his games were actually good.
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I am seriously not envious at all about being on the Analysis Crew. I mean, having to write analysis for four matches a day for almost four weeks?! No thank you! But wow, what a sacrifice you guys are making. Good for you!
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Round 1 Ganondorf vs. Neku Sakuraba

Moltars Analysis

first match on ganons path of destruction lets go

So weve already kind of seen this match before https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3253-division-3-round-1-frog-ganondorf-kos-mos-neku

It was ugly then and its gonna be ugly now. Neku doesnt have any reason to boost since 2013, and Ganon was already way out of his league.

Moltars Bracket: Ganondorf

Moltars Prediction: Ganondorf - 75%

transiences Analysis

TWEWY came out on Switch last week but I can't imagine it especially matters here. It's not like people play new video games here anyway (unless it's a new sequel to a hit game). The only people getting TWEWY on Switch are people who were already interested in TWEWY anyway. And half of them will probably vote for Ganon anyway. It's Neku.

I don't think Ganon is going to be amazing this year but he should be good enough to slam Neku into the ground. Maybe he won't look as good as Dante here but that won't matter because Dante folds to the wind.

transience's prediction: Ganondorf with 77.99%

Leonharts Analysis

The World Ends With You: Final Remix just came out last week, so get ready for that massive Neku boost! Well, maybe not. We already saw these two face off in 2008, and Ganondorf nearly quadrupled him. Maybe Neku is a little stronger now because hes been in Kingdom Hearts and TWEWY is somewhat in peoples consciousnesses right now, but that means, what? A tripling instead of a quadrupling? Breath of the Wilds release (even if Ganondorf is barely in it) probably negates that advantage regardless. Either way, this ones gonna be ugly.

Leonharts Vote: Neku Sakuraba

Leonharts Prediction: Ganondorf with 77.95%

Kleenexs Analysis

Ganondorf is legit, and until proven otherwise, I think he should be the favorite to make it out of this first division. He really only collapses against other Nintendo characters, which he doesnt have to worry about until the Champions bracket this time. Meanwhile, Neku 5th times a charm Sakuraba gets to lose in the first round again, after previously losing to contest heavyweights such as Laharl and Catherine. Maybe next time, Neku. I do feel obligated to mention that the Switch version of TWEWY just came out like a week ago, so maybe that makes him look a tiny bit better. Perhaps that would have been enough to push him over Catherine this time, but Ganondorf is an impossible mountain to climb.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ganondorf with 80%

Guests Analysis - tkizzle

Hey Board 8, long time no see! I think I have a minor tradition now of getting an early Guest spot and hyping up the contest a bit, and this year is as excited as Ive ever been to participate. Heres to another great contest season!

MATCH PREDICTION:

Ganondorf - 71.99%

Neku - 28.01%

Maybe some of you think Ganondorfs percentage here is a bit low, but Neku isnt exactly a nobody. Hes close, sure, but not EXACTLY a nobody. Ganon is still going to win easily and get over 70% but considering Nekus resume- star of a cult classic Square Enix game, been in Kingdom Hearts, is getting a Switch port- the tripling or even quadrupling some people are expecting seems a bit much.

I think Vivi vs. Ganondorf will be an interesting potential upset, and heres where we start to get a read on it. Its unknown how much Mario-crushing strength Mr. Black Mage can retain but theres a good bit of leeway for Vivis natural strength to fall somewhere between beats Ganondorf and beats Mario. In the first round both contestants are facing cult classic JRPG anime boys, and Yu probably isnt super-duper far ahead of Neku, so those of us who are wondering about Ganondorf vs. Vivi should be paying attention to today and tomorrows round 1 matches!

Crew Consensus: A calamity crushing for Ganon
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As of the most recent age poll on 09/19/17, less than 20% of the site was born 09/20/1992 or later.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6841-how-old-are-you

And the site's average date of birth has actually gotten earlier since 2009.

Whether the big names of the PS2 era become icons for that generation or not, the generation that started with PS2 is mostly not on gamefaqs so it barely matters!
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Haste_2 posted...

I am seriously not envious at all about being on the Analysis Crew. I mean, having to write analysis for four matches a day for almost four weeks?! No thank you! But wow, what a sacrifice you guys are making. Good for you!

and all we get for it is everyone laughing at us when we get something wrong!

also aw yeah I Price is Right'd transience that time
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Huh kinda surprised I went lower on Ganondorf than all 4 of you. Not sure if you guys are taking that four way as your start point but I could see a few reasons why he'd at least do a bit better than that would expect (ignoring the BUT THAT WAS YEARS AGO factor even)
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not gonna matter when 'dorf gets like 85%
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I mean I'm all in favor of Ganondorf doing as badly as possible

but like I said I have no feel for percentages right now so I'm all over the place
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I didn't even remember that Neku and Ganondorf shared a match together because who remembers that
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"It's not like people play new video games here anyway (unless it's a new sequel to a hit game). "

transience you are exactly right. Video games are a meme in 2018.
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SuperNiceDog posted...

"It's not like people play new video games here anyway (unless it's a new sequel to a hit game). "

transience you are exactly right. Video games are a meme in 2018.

I mean a meme won the 2015 Games Contest so he's not wrong
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I sure didn't I just feel like Neku probably should outdo the basest fodder. Neku is a dude who could probably beat the bottom 20% of this bracket. I think he should probably avoid the tripling at least.
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Neku couldnt outdo fodder in his last two appearances!
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I didn't say he wasn't fodder I said he wasn't the lowest level of fodder!
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Yeah, he's probably middle of the pack fodder rather than a bottom feeder, so I might have gone too high there. It just feels like a 75-80% win though.
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actually I've got to do four trend charts every day too and I still have no clue how to divide them up with the new start time
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looks like I was dead-ass wrong on Spyro! damn you chun li

looking forward to Lightning embarrassing Dante next round
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looks like I'm pretty close on everything except Lightning

and I'll take being wrong because Chloe sucks
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wow lightning is a monster!!

look out Dante!!!
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Not surprised by Lighting winning-but I do see Dante beating Lighting.
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