Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew

(+) Yeah! (+)

accuracy point GET???
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barring something weird the Guests are going to take 3 of the first 4 accuracy points looks like

well I guess it's possible I could still get Dante's if he starts going up
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Round 1 Vivi vs. Yu Narukami

Moltars Analysis

Very unfortunate placement for the Persona 4 protag here. I dont think hes super weak, but Vivi is just on another level. Vivi has always looked really solid, but in the last Character Battle he took it to that next level by beating Mario (with Ganondorf in the same poll).

Itll be interesting to see if Vivi has returned to his normal strength, but unless he absolutely crushes or flops, we wont know for sure until the later rounds.

Moltars Bracket: Vivi

Moltars Prediction: Vivi 66%

transiences Analysis

Vivi's kind of a fraud, yeah? Leon likes to talk about how Mewtwo is fraudulent but Vivi's exactly that - a weird and random rally and then a bandwagon effect once people saw he could do the impossible. Vivi's a defining midcarder, the guy who can get 57% on DK or Master Chief and 43% on Kirby or Zelda. He's not better than Squall.

I did see some people talking about how Joker is likely better than Yu, and I don't agree - I think P4 was a defining game for a lot of people whereas P5 is iterative. Joker's got a better design but I'd back Yu since his game's a lot more iconic. I think Yu's probably good enough to beat a quarter of the guys in this JV bracket. I wish he had a better path.

I'll have more to say about Vivi next round, but suffice to say he's not losing to a Persona character.

transience's prediction: Vivi with 69.78%

Leonharts Analysis

Why doesnt Allen ever put Vivis last name in the polls? I guess theres some debate over whether it should be Ornitier or Orunitia, but its been the former in most stuff, so roll with that, I say. Oh right, theres a match. Even if Vivi isnt as strong as he showed in CBIX, he shouldnt have any trouble beating a character who lost to Shadow the Hedgehog. I kinda wish Narukami had gotten a better draw because I think he couldve won a match with the right setup, but this isnt it.

Leonharts Vote: Yu Narukami

Leonharts Prediction: Vivi Ornitier with 68.60%

Kleenexs Analysis

Im pretty surprised Yu even got in at this point. Especially since Persona 5 is the far new game, Im not sure whos still nominating this goober, but here we are. Vivi is the actual interesting part of this match though. Hes coming in hot after beating goddamn Mario in the last contest. Yes, this was 5 years ago, and yes, 2013 was kind of a mess, but thats still nothing to sneeze at. Vivi has always been solid if not spectacular in previous showings, so I wonder if he can build on his success, or if 2013 was just a big fluke. This is a winnable division for Vivi if hes truly arrived at elite status, and Yu should provide a decent bunching bad to gauge his strength before he meets some of the bigger threats.

Kleenexs Prediction: Vivi with 71%

Guests Analysis - garetha200

Shouldn't be close at all, nice chill match for everyone to vote in and immediately ignore. Vivi is coming off an amazing 2013 contest, albeit not 100% off his base strength, so hopefully we'll get a better read on him this year. This match won't provide that though, as Vivi really is one of the best possible characters to beat up on Yu. As much as Persona 4 is a beloved GameFAQs fanboy type game, FF9 can rival it, as was evidenced by its If It Were Up to Board 8 victory, so he should crush Yu with ease on both the casual and hardcore groups. I really think we could see a tripling here, which would mean only good things for Vivi's chances against Leon in round 3.

Really don't have much to write here, I just signed up for this because I really like FF9, FF9 second best FF behind FFX change my mind

Vivi gonna drop a DOOMSDAY on Yu with 75% of the vote

Crew Consensus: Vivi casts Winaga
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Round 1 Victor Sullivan vs. Aya Brea

Moltars Analysis

So...Im not quite sure what to make of this match. Id say its the first one thats hard to call.

Victor is a contest newcomer, but Uncharted has carved out a small fanbase on this site over the years. Nathan Drake has gone from super fodder to low midcarder, as he has put up respectable performances against The Boss and Pokemon Trainer Blue. He would beat Aya, but Sullys ceiling is Drake, and its much more realistic that he ends up being much weaker than him.

In Ayas most recent contest showing, she got doubled by Scorpion and tripled by Sora. She is weak, and its very hard to see her actually winning a match in 2018 despite being the veteran here. Still, she somehow still makes these contests despite not getting any support, whereas the only reason Sully is here and seeded high is because of concentrated board support.

Ill take the known weak character here because the odds of Sully being extremely weak are much higher.

Moltars Bracket: Aya

Moltars Prediction: Aya 55%

transiences Analysis

Well, here's the first debatable match of this contest. I'm not sure what the consensus is here either. Sully is the new guy, the guy who should win, while Aya's a faded icon, a defining Square character from 1998 who basically vanished from time, especially after her PSP game was awful.

It's hard to come up with solid reasons to take either of these guys. Uncharted is somewhat legit here, as much as a PS3+ shooter can be legit, and Sully's the fan favourite in those games. Uncharted always puts up a decent fight in GOTY polls. It might not win but it'll usually come up with a third place showing or something like that.

Aya should lose. She's down there with Ramza as far as forgotten Square characters go and is certainly irrelevant at this point. And yet... I'm gonna go for it here. When I think of who feels like a gamefaqs character, is it the side guy in the 2010s shooting game or the main character in a 1998 Square game? It's super reductionist but I don't have a good feeling on any of the new guys unless they're from a game or genre that's friendly to this website. Uncharted kind of is because of the narrative focus but I'm still going with the 90s.

transience's prediction: Aya Brea with 51.45%

Leonharts Analysis

I am stunned that both of these characters got a winnable match, and one of them has to win! Nathan Drake is a low midcarder here, and I dont think anyone else from Uncharted can even come close to him. He is Uncharted, so hes the only character who matters. Sully is a fan favorite among those whove played UC, but hell just be an old dude to the average voter, I think, which isnt good when youre going up against an eternally youthful blonde bombshell. Sullys best hope for winning is having a big bracket advantage due to being the higher seed in a fodder/fodder match (since the higher seed usually wins in scenarios like this), but Im still siding with Aya because I like her better and her winning for the first time since 2002 would be a great callback to the days when TJF was a thing. Morrigan was the original TJF girl, but Aya was right behind her.

Leonharts Vote: Aya Brea

Leonharts Prediction: Aya Brea with 56.78%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Speaking of people who Im shocked are still getting nominated. After 2002, Aya wasnt able to get into another contest until we let 243 people in one at the same time. Wasnt even enough to get into the female bracket in 2006. And yet here we are. But you know what? She still probably wins. This is jumping ahead a bit, but Nathan Drake sucks. I get people like Uncharted, but hes never been impressive. This is a dude who barely beat Pac-Man last contest. And now we have a lesser character from the same series. There hasnt been a Parasite Eve game in like 18 years (3rd Birthday doesnt count, no one played that). Aya is still going to win.

Kleenexs Prediction: Aya with 55%

Guests Analysis - Xeybozn

Parasite Eve is not a popular franchise. It has a devoted cult following, but it would take a very weak opponent for Aya to win a match. On the other hand, there's no reason to have much faith in Sully either. Sure, Uncharted is fairly popular for a "modern" series, but that's never really meant much on this site. Besides, Sully isn't even the main character (and Drake's never looked great in these anyway).

So, this match is between two very weak characters that many voters won't know at all. How can we pick a winner? Usually I'd say just take the higher seed, but Sully only got his high seed because he was a Guru pick rather than because of his natural fanbase. The only other thing left to consider is the match pic. I don't know what the pic will look like, but I do know this: one of these characters is a boring looking old dude with a generic name, while the other is an attractive woman. That does not bode well for the not-female character. I don't expect a blowout, but I'm pretty sure Aya is making the second round for the first time since 2002. Weird to say that about someone who missed seven contests in a row.

Aya Brea - 53.64%

Crew Consensus: Aya, because someone has to win here
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are they 12 hour slots? 7-7 EST?
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Activate crew curse?

what is a bunching bad

my gimmick is making as many typos as possible in my writeups
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Every time I see this topic when there is a contest here, there is always a (manly)tear to my eye. I just love reading about the crew.
Congrats for doing all these things for all these years! Hope you will still continue to do these things for many more years to come!

Also

Transience:
<That's kinda all I need to know. This year's gamefaqs population is going to be pretty conservative in picking their faves since the only people left on this website are still fantasizing about the old days when Square and Nintendo were the only things that everyone played>

Oh man spot on! These were the times...
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Crew Curse here we come

(go Aya)
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https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/char/11.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/char/12.png

worried old man vs actual titties

it's over
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I kinda wish we'd stop getting 3rd Birthday Aya because nobody (literally nobody) likes that game.
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Huh consensus for Aya I didn't expect that. CURSE.
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wait, we all picked Aya? I thought I might be the outlier here!
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You're the outlier in that your percentage is the only one with a reasonable victory margin on it

I'm skeptical Aya could get 56% on Cuphead in 2018.
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Lopen posted...

You're the outlier in that your percentage is the only one with a reasonable victory margin on it

I'm skeptical Aya could get 56% on Cuphead in 2018.

fodder vs. fodder matches are never close

Cuphead would probably beat both of these guys anyway
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also I kinda expected we'd all pick Aya here actually

which is what I was afraid of

there's no real reason to pick Sully here other than him having the higher seed
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i didn't know people even supported sully here
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LeonhartFour posted...

I kinda wish we'd stop getting 3rd Birthday Aya because nobody (literally nobody) likes that game.

I played it earlier this year and I actually thought it was good! I mean, the story sucks, but the gameplay is fun, especially for a portable title.
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Nathan Drake passed the Pac-Man test in 2013. Even 5 years ago the series had enough following that people on this site can reasonably be expected to know who Sully is. And since he's a fan favorite the majority of people who know who he is will vote for him. Feeling the CURSE pretty hard on this one.
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Eh, like I said, Nathan Drake is Uncharted. The average person who just knows what Uncharted is but has never played it will know Drake, but they won't know anyone else. I love Sully as much as the next guy, but in a battle where a lot of people won't have any clue who either character is, I'll take the hot blonde over the old man.
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I don't think those people vote Drake over Pac-Man though. Pac-Man wins the votes of people who just know who Drake is imo.
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Drake only needed 40% to win that match. Reducing this to a 1-on-1 makes things tougher for Sully. Plus, while Sully is well liked in general by the fanbase, his smallest role in the series is in the most popular one. If you've only played UC2, for example, how much do you really love Sully?
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Is Sully really a fan favorite? When people say that I feel like they're referring to characters who the fanbase likes more than the MC. I definitely don't get that impression from Uncharted fans.
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Well I bet Drake vs Sully would be close among the polled fanbase (Drake would squash Sully on GameFAQs don't get me wrong), but no I wasn't meaning to imply that he's more popular than Drake. Just that most people who have played the game actually like him more than him just being a character that exists (like pretty much all of the rest of the non-Drake cast)
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I just think the gap between Drake and everyone else is gonna be pretty huge. Drake is barely above the fodder line himself, so there's plenty of room for Aya to squeeze in there and win comfortably.
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Aya almost beat DK, who comfortably beat Lightning, and look what she's doing right now!

This is science you can't argue with it.
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I think Sully wins if people recognize him. Im just not sure how regonixable he is with that name and that picture.
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Nathan Drake likely gets around the low to mid 60s against Ada in 2013, would Sullivan get than (ignoring SFF)?
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To Sully's benefit, he is very prominent in the Uncharted games. Hell, I bet he'd be stronger than Elena or Chloe, and they have TJF in their favor.
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Well, Chloe has her own game now, so I'm not sure about her. He'd definitely outdo Elena though. I don't think she's really anyone's favorite.
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I took Sully in my bracket out of favoritism but I really doubt he actually wins.

Whatever dregs of a Parasite Eve fanbase still exist will probably outnumber people voting for a minor Uncharted character.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6899-10-years-later-have-you-ever-played-uncharted-drakes-fortune

Something to keep in mind that while Uncharted is fairly popular, almost half the site has never played an Uncharted game. Sully's a big character in the series, but there's a ton of voters wouldn't know who he is even if he got the best picture possible and had his game mentioned in the poll. Obviously Aya is even worse in that regard, but at least she's not some generic old guy.
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I love how we use the term generic when we just mean something that has a realistic style.
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or he just doesn't have a standout design
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And Aya does?
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She kinda does given the right art, but you can't see it in that picture by any stretch.
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She has orange hair and anime face.

Thats enough imo.

Yeah, Third Birthday Aya is far from ideal, but she stands out more than Sully does.

Also, I'm realizing that SBAllen forcing everyone to vote in every match could actually impact some of these matches. This could result in a Pac-Man power boost, in particular. Apathy voting will be at an all-time high.
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Round 1 Tidus vs. Donkey Kong

Moltars Analysis

Now this is a fun looking match on paper. Its Nintendo vs. Square, which is a long-standing rivalry on GameFAQs. Plus, both these guys are midcarders, and both of these guys have pretty notorious contest histories. Theyve lost in close contest matches several times, and have reputations for being chokers. Now they have won at least once, but its still hard to shake that reputation.

Donkey Kong is actually coming off a redemption victory in 2013 when he beat Lightning even with Falco in the match. Its hard to say if that was because of DKs strength or Lightnings weakness, but if its the former, then DK has a real shot in this match.

Meanwhile, Tidus lost to a glitch the last time we saw him, so we dont have a good recent read on him.

Historically, Tidus would be the favorite in this match. Up until 2013, his contest performances have looked better than DKs. DK has lost to Vivi twice in convincing fashion, and Tidus and Vivi were on about the same level. 2013 flipped the script on this and became the reason why this is up for debate.

Since this is looking to be a close match, the registered voter factor can also play a big role here. Users that registered before the contest have their votes counted twice. This is meant to be a counter-measure to rallying, but its bound to factor in to other matches as well.

I think that right now, the site, and the Internet as a whole, has shifted towards Nintendo and DK. I think Tidus would have won this match in the past, and he probably should be seen as the slight favorite because of that. However, times have changed and I think the scale is continuing to weigh in DKs favor. The ape closed the gap five years ago, so its very possible that either Tidus has fallen just enough or DK has gotten just strong enough to win this.

Moltars Bracket: DK

Moltars Prediction: DK 52%

transiences Analysis

I don't really remember any DK or Tidus matches from recent years (mostly out of apathy) and I don't think it matters too much. DK just seems like so much bigger than Tidus in 2018. Tidus is really old at this point (17!) and I don't feel like he's aged super well. When I think of him, I think of the voice acting and the clothes more than anything. I don't think people remember FF10 the same way they do some of those PS1 games that exist in text only. I'm interested to see how some of the post-FF7 characters fare so many years later. Tidus is fine.. he's not super weak or anything, but I think he'd struggle with anyone else with a solid fanbase behind them.

On the other hand, DK feels like he's rejuvenated after his recent games and his general increased focus from the early 00s. Nintendo has shined a new light on him and kinda reinvented him. He's not that faded icon from a 10 years old Donkey Kong Country and DK64 anymore. I think he wins this without a sweat.

transience's prediction: DK with 59.55%
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Leonharts Analysis

Ive seen a lot of people talking about how they cant wait for Tidus to underperform and choke, but Donkey Kong is the original choker (so its rather fitting that Ayas match is going to be on the same day as this one). Maybe people think DK beating Lightning despite Falco being in the poll means hes turned the corner, but he still folded like he always does the very next round against Zelda and Charizard. That match said more about Lightning than it did about DK. People look at the Missingno match and call that a Tidus choke, but he was a massive underdog in that match and Id never take DK to beat Missingno. Now of course Tidus can lose because, well, hes Tidus, but Ill take DK to choke a little harder here.

Leonharts Vote: Tidus

Leonharts Prediction: Tidus with 55.10%

Kleenexs Analysis

Listen. I know Tidus has become something of a choke artist in recent years. And by recent years I mean going back to like 2006. I think it would hilarious if he somehow managed to lose to Donkey Kong. Maybe people hate FFX now. Maybe theres a resurgence in interest in Donkey Konga or something, I dont know. Donkey Kongs biggest accomplishment across every contest hes been in has been beating Lightning. Hes not winning this match.

Kleenexs Prediction: Tidus with 66%

Guests Analysis - Sir Chris

Hi folks, Sir Chris here with a quick analysis of this match because I have been incredibly busy on the road! So basically I just don't think that TIDUS CAN GET HE JOB DONE ALL THESE YEARS LATER. As I say this Lightning is murdering a character so let's just hope that Chloe is, like, really weak and it isn't an FF wave year. I think this is a one point match and there's just something about DK's beautiful face that gives me hope that his time is now. I also think Nintendo will have naturally grown a little bit stronger while FFX fades a bit. You don't want to know who I have for Auron vs Vincent, it isn't the FFX character!!

Anyway I just have no confidence in Tidus at all and I took a flyer on this match because of TRENDS.

Donkey Kong with 51.05%

Crew Consensus: The first Crew split! DK is the slight favorite here.
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whew DK is the favorite

victory is assured
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although this new Voter Apathy Factor (which might as well be called the Pac-Man & DK Power Boost Special) could turn things around
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66%!?

Also, we've seen now that about 50% of voters in this contest are registered, for what it's worth.
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whoa, pick percentages range like 25%

I doubt theres much apathy with DK and Tidus. maybe years ago when we had a lot of casual voters.
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Hmm, I thought wrote 56% but whatever, let's roll with 66!

Also it only took 2 days but my writeups are already starting to get really stupid
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Well there's only a squash left so to pass the time till the next post I'll throw in my group of 4 unofficial guest analyses to stir up the Tidus vs Donkey Kong pot a bit more. How am I not higher than the entire crew on this?

Lopen's Analysisx4

Vivi vs Yu Narrative
I mean I dont believe Vivi is a legit Mario smasher or anything, but Yu isnt Mario, either. He is, however, decent fodder. Probably the strongest random RPG character from something that isnt made by Square well see on the site. Im not sure thats enough for him to even see the 40s but you know, the 30s? Yeah. The 30s.

Vivi with 64.02%

Victor goddamn Sullivan vs Aya Brea
Im pretty sure Uncharted is well established at this point. And Sully is a fan favorite from the game, so he should get his votes. I honestly expect Sully to Pac-Man the more niche Aya Brea, here, if nothing else. Hes an iconic character from one of the bigger franchises of the past 10 years. It took some time for Nathan Drake to be non fodder, but even in the last contest he was showing signs of being a decent low end midcarder and projecting at 5 years ago. With that much more time to stew, Uncharted should have its foothold.

That should be plenty enough to just ruin obscure characters. Aya Brea has even less reason to be believed in than Spyro. Young-uns of the era didnt play Parasite Eve. I also dont think either character comes off as particularly photogenic here so Sully probably wont bend the knee to the bobs punching votes.

Victor Sullivan with 56.55%

Tidus vs Donkey Kong
This will be the first true test of whether the PS2 era icon theory has any merit. The main character of arguably the biggest RPG on the PS2? Thats an icon, people! Why is it only Dante that is brought up? I expect Tidus to kinda smash this one even if its close on paper given contest histories. I think TIdus will be closer to Squall levels of yore than his old ones. We kinda saw signs of the starts of this with MissingNo matches in 2013which people are quick to discard because MissingNo but its impressive nonetheless.

Tidus with 60.60%

Mr Kennedy vs Fus Ro Dah
If the dragonborns name was like Shin Majindor, I think it would have a legit chance to be something worthwhile.

Now Im not saying I named the PC from Skyrim Shin Majindor, but its at least a name. Something people who played Skyrim could get behind.

Id vote my PC in Skyrim over Leon Kennedy. She was a cute vampire ninja with purple twintails. I guess she had the power of the dragon too and was technically called a dragonborn, but she looked nothing like this random Nord with a helmet.

Leon Kennedy with 65.88%
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Sully is iconic in the way that Spyro the Dragon is iconic
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nah, Spyro would rock both these guys
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