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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew
Master Moltar
10/20/18 2:49:27 PM
#219:


Round 1 Noctis Lucis Caelum vs. Master Hand

Moltars Analysis

Remember Kuja vs. Master Hand? First thing that came to mind to a lot of people when this match appeared on the bracket. Basically, it was a match where Kuja seemed like a lock, but he flopped in the end and Master Hand won without too much trouble.

Noctis is no Kuja.

...I hope

Noctis is the lead of his game, and FFXV does have decent strength on the site (it won GotY in 2016, even though it was a weak field). Yeah Lightning might have lost against DK with Falco in the poll, but Master Hand is far weaker than those other Nintendo characters. Plus based on what weve seen in this contest so far, DK and Lightning might be stronger than 2013 let on.

He wont be as strong, but if Noctis isnt too far from Lightning in strength, he should be able to take this without much trouble.

Moltars Bracket: Noctis

Moltars Prediction: Noctis 56%

transiences Analysis

Oh god. OH GOD. I have vivid, vivid memories of the Kuja match. It's one of the most crushing defeats in my long contest history.

It wasn't just that Kuja lost to a stupid glove. It's how it happened. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but it was the greatest day vote wave in contest history. It went from being a close one up front to something like a 12000 vote win for Master Hand. THE GLOVE. (Fact check: it was only 5500 votes. It felt like a million.)

I had Kuja winning 2 rounds so this was particularly traumatic. And now, here we are, in a weird gamefaqs environment, facing goddamn Noctis, who is Kuja redux. Do you think I'm going to pick that stupid looking guy from a mediocre FF game vs. this contest killer?

I.. probably should. If the weeb vote hits, it's going to hit for Noctis hard. That is, unless there's a meme vote going. Monika isn't a meme vote so I don't think that happens. You know what? Screw that. I'm picking the glove. I'll pick it next round too.

transience's prediction: THE GLOVE with 53.44%

Leonharts Analysis

You cant look at this match and not immediately think of Master Hands win over Kuja in the Villains Contest, one of the most rage-inducing results in contest history that wasnt impacted by allegations of cheating or rallying (Its probably the last time I legitimately got mad about a contest result, in fact!). While the thought of history repeating itself kinda terrifies me here, I think Noctis should be able to manage it here. Master Hand won because Kuja was just terrible (since Robotnik 60/40d the glove the very next round). While I dont expect Noctis to be super strong, I think the protagonist of a Final Fantasy game will be worth more than the villain of FFIX back when the game was at its nadir on this site because this site leans heavily toward heroes over villains. While FFXV isnt going to be anywhere near as strong as the classics, I think the site knows and likes it enough for Noctis to beat the glove.

Of course, I am fully prepared to be disappointed yet again because I dont think its unthinkable for Master Hand to win here. I just hope he doesnt!

Leonharts Vote: Noctis Lucis Caelum

Leonharts Prediction: Noctis Lucis Caelum with 54.60%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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