Lurker > Lopen

Alright screw it. This may be a misplay but whatever

I am just going to full disclosure here because I'm sure scum knows who I am.

I claim Lei Wulong, Town Cop. Please read.

Last night I had the result of my action stolen. This has to be a scum role. I came into today knowing they knew I was Cop.

Knowing this, I decided to heavily breadcrumb having scanned Lea, knowing that they would have to try something if I made it blatant enough, otherwise my flip would implicate Lea because town doesnt know my action was stolen.

Isquen's claim is too perfect as it in theory draws the doc off of me as well as gives a story "no Lopen definitely did not scan Lea, watcher didn't see him" I never see a watcher claiming there ever. It had to be a scum move.

(For the record I scanned red, figured Lea would be dead if town so was a waste of a scan)

Your scum are
Isquen
Lea
Plum

Last one? Who knows. Definitely not Corrik. Probably IGCD.

Isquen is probably scum drawing doctor save. Scum probably has a flavor cop that found a strong role they need off the board.

##Unvote
##Vote: Isquen

Wait what the heck I totally missed Isquen's claim

Why

Kirby321 posted...

Could you elaborate where exactly I've failed to make attempts on thinking? Or is this just because I disagree with your whole "Ulti and Lea are bussing scummates" theory

Less I don't know who you think are scum and while you have some town reads I am directly attacking one and you haven't really said what makes Lea so townish.

We are deep into day 2 some stands should be made

Anyway

I'm leaning back towards Kirby being scum. Probably scum GF that scumteam is soft bussing to try and get a scan on him.

Kirby just hasn't shown an actual inclination towards attempting to think today.

My official guess at this time is

Lea
Plum
Kirby
IGCD

But not a lot of faith in those last two. Lot of contenders there. Lot of people lurking and playing lazy makes it hard.

The reasons you're scum again read Mzero's infodump on you earlier today. You've got a great little pattern of you soft defending Ulti and gaining more conviction he's town as the day goes which is contrary to common sense as he buries himself.

Ulti's behavior towards you is perhaps more damning as he continually says he'll vote you and you're scum but keeps trying to dangle other lynch targets instead. Then flips to calling you town later. It tells the story of a guy wanting to create distance yet not generate pressure.

You not voting Ulti and calling him town weighs nearly zero on me thinking you're scum. She is good at the game but that is a null tell.

Anyone who is pushing lynch candidates and isn't at least considering you is probably not town.

Especially since Lea hasn't specifically called you town either. Just is kinda ignoring you.

The fact that Lea hasn't gone after plum at all today should be all the hint you need she's not town.

masterplum posted...

I am just mystified if town Lopen could possibly believe the words he is posting.

As if scum Ulti suiciding into Lea to make Lea look good D1 is even a remotely possible plan to pull off let alone a good plan.

I have literally never seen a plan that detailed carried out D1 by scum. Ever. In a decade and a half.

After D1? Sure. Ive definitely had my fair share of ruses, but on D1 that literally never happens

So what's the alternative.

Scum ulti is delusional enough to think under fire he is able to flip a lynch onto LEA on a flimsy flavor argument? Truly?

For as little sense as you think it makes for scum scum it makes way less as scum town. Especially with Lea alive.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Yes.

Perception is reality. Ulti's play was good. He suicided onto a charismatic player people want to get behind.

However that's exactly why it had to be scum scum. There is zero chance Ulti actually thinks he can get you lynched there.

Also keep in mind you have 3 scummates that can paint it exactly that way. The scum propaganda machine makes it work.

htaeD posted...

That said with the Plumpush that happened soon after, Lea's vote was probably what brought the Ulti lynch back into gear. Its what got Lopen back in the ulti train at least

No.

Ultis claim of protection and King as protection did. Also a mention of one main when King wasn't the one main.

Lea was completely irrelevant

Kirby321 posted...

Ulti suiciding onto Lea makes zero sense in any context

Look at the town currency Lea is accruing and I disagree strongly

IGCD I command you to stay on Lea.

You may swap your vote late in the day if you deign it necessary

The thing that has me suspicious of peaf is that he keeps trying to put Lea as a chief contributor to getting Ulti lynched when she really was not all that important aside from Ulti sacrificing

Assassin and some sort of homebrew thing

In 17 there are possibly TWO stronger roles than blocker tbh

Kirby321 posted...

But why not let someone else on his team with a weaker role do it to save scum Plum? What's more powerful than Roleblocker?

Keep in mind it's not just "role" here. If the other scum aren't under heat it's an even more nonsensical play. Also keep in mind scum isn't a tactical hivemind and I could easily have seen Ulti just going for it because as Plum so eloquently put it "Ulti just does things"

(Also roleblocker isn't super great in 17. Not to downplay it, it is good, but Plum having a stronger role wouldn't surprise me.)

I give you freedom to vote Plum or Lea. You may now be free from the shackles of 0.61%.

Plum is probably amused because his Ulti said he was going to sacrifice to make Lea look good rather than heeding Plum's pleas to just bus him and it was a total waste

Mzero kinda covered why to be suspicious of plum pretty well and why plum is 80% scum (still lower than Lea's 80.61% by a hair)

The only thing I'd reiterate from yesterday is that Ultis behavior towards Plum ALSO made Plum look real bad.

Ulti says this when Plum starts rolling, followed by a "scummoned"

UltimaterializerX posted...

Yeah Plum is scum. I was getting there. You have my vote in spirit!

If he's acting like a disinterested snake in the grass he should be killed on general principle.

He then almost immediately pivots (as in less than 10 posts immediately) to trying to get Corrik lynched rather than... you know, voting Plum in more than just spirit.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Oh and I ask again -- why did you go from being willing to kill Corrik for inactivity to calling him town when posted twice with no content?

Ultimately Ulti calls plum town despite the vote being on him in spirit because there is something off about Lopen.

This reeks of Ulti simultaneously wanting to distance from Plum while also not being willing to help get a plum lynch going. Were Plum town it would be very easy for Ulti to just go with the flow and help get him lynched rather than suiciding into Lea. The Lea suicide play only works if Plum and Lea are both scum.

Kirby321 posted...

Speaking of looking better from Ulti's flip, I don't see how Lea is anything except confirmed Town by this point. I don't buy this argument of Ulti vs. Lea being scum theater.

Use critical thinking skills, Kirby. Mafia is a game of motivations.

Why does Ulti make that play otherwise

Do you honestly think he as scum thinks he can get town Lea lynched with his suicide tactic there?

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Because assuming a giftable ability on anyone and it changing how you are playing the game is ridiculous? It's rare.

Also "I wanted him to try and pocket me if he was scum" you do realize town wins by lynching scum not tricking them into thinking they pocketed them right

And Ulti is very good as scum he literally claimed his actual flavor Thanos as Miller and won.

You are claiming you legitimately thought Ulti had a giftable ability?

Because think about it

Ben said it best. What is the scum equity in Ulti making that play against town Lea? Does scum Ulti think he can ever ever EVER get Lea lynched with that?

I believe town Lea is considering the same thing. If Ulti hadn't made himself look so hideous the rest of the day I would consider the same thing.

Also note that Lea had so much vigor in destroying Ulti there-- so why did she not assist in pressuring him in any meaningful way earlier? Lea is not the type to OMGUS. I don't think a weird bad flavor argument would make her flip from "well yeah, Ulti exists" to wanting his head on a pike. If anything, I think she might try to talk him down.

Isquen posted...

##unvote

Lopen, you have my attention. Why vote Lea?

Read how Ulti vs Lea went

Read it real carefully

Ulti practically fell on his sword with a wacky gambit-- the alternative is what? He thinks he can get LEA lynched with a flimsy flavor argument? LEA? Ulti is weird but as scum he's very good at the game. This was a calculated move. Note that Ulti really drug the line out too. This was not a move of opportunity this was a planned move-- Lea hadn't mentioned herself being a main in forever.

Then note how Lea reacts. She drives him into the ground. It's not a playful mockery into "hey guys vote this" we all know and love. She completely obliterates him.

The alternative is scum ulti thought he could get town Lea lynched. I don't believe that in a million years.

Kill considerations were this I would figure

Ben - strongman
Sbell - kill
Lopen - docfear
Lea - scum

It was probably between me and Ben for strongman. I'm probably alive because they saw Kirby or Hb as possible mislynches to sic me on while Ben had more solid grounded reads

Kirby getting 3 votes right out the gate lends itself to that too. If I'm wrong about hb AND Kirby then I would be very surprised if one of your 2 remaining scum wasn't in isquen or peaf

Like seriously in what world does a vig shoot Ben or Sbell

Hell an SK wouldn't either. SK wins by scum hunting unless town gets way ahead.

Note also that Plum's gameplan this day is to throw out every theory under the sun aside from Scum extra kill

Why? Because he knows Lea being alive looks bad too. As scum it is his objective to make us believe there is no scum extra kill.

Vote Lea please thanks

Hbthebattle posted...

couldn't you explain this with docfear

The bonus kill is usually unblockable so doubt it. Sbell was probably strongmanned

I'm not going to do my thing. I mulled it over last night and Im being chill about it to save bandwidth.

The reason why I mulled it over is explained yesterday. Ulti alley oop to Lea combined with Lea being alive today when scum clearly had two kills is enough for me. 80.61%. Absolute certainty.

To elaborate

I'm less convinced on hb because most of my misgivings can be explained by "I'm making him tilt" which is completely possible.

He's not town cleared just more interest in you or plum today. Not at all interested in a Kirby lynch let's not do that.

I'm less convinced on hb.

Plum is being too dumb to be town though. 25% give me a break

I spent some time mulling it over and I am 80.61% certain Lea is scum. That is slightly more than the 80% certainty I have on Plum so I recommend lynching her. But if we want to go with master "25% chance Ulti is scum" plum that's fine too.

I also am thinking my "Lea is bussing Kirby" thought is wrong and Kirby is probably town.

##Vote: Lea

It's not irrational lol

He would have fought harder earlier

Town Ulti as one of the strongest roles in the game is not this chill about being lynched no

That's why the play works

I'm not saying lynch Lea tomorrow but if Lea survives for a good while? Think about it.

I think wallz was spot on with his reaction to Lea's reaction btw.

wallmasterz posted...

As for the recent Ulti and Lea stuff, I still think Ulti is scum but how Lea responded came across a little suspicious to me as well. I dont know Lea well yet but Id like to think town Lea would brush it off with more humor at ultis expense. She was very serious. I dont remember who got interested in the whole sbell all 3 scum comment but I am interested to go back and see if those same people chimed in here.

Lea going hard on trying to incriminate Ulti rather than just kinda going "lol ok" seems like she was trying to convert a sacrifice by her scummate into town equity. I mean really the work was done. Me and SBell were driving that thing and could have been trusted to finish killing him dead I'm sure.

Also I'm aware that we don't need a lot of convincing but King makes very little sense to be a jailkeeper. It's clearly a claim that doesn't fit the flavor done blatantly to try and draw out a doctor counterclaim.

Luckily we're smart people.

PunishedBen posted...

But claiming that Lea is lying about her flavor seems like a bad scum strat as well. Do we think Ulti feels he can push Lea's lynch in his universe in that moment?

No

Which is why I think Lea is scum too btw. It feels like a scripted fall to make Lea look good.

Which is only done if Plum/Ulti is scum/scum.

It's ok bud we will have a pile of dead scum by then

At least one of us will likely be dead as well

And plum knows that

Every time I start thinking he might be town he opens his mouth

Lot more to it plum. Read the day if you're town. Also if you're town "watch and learn" as we fell scum without waiting for a scan.

I mean there's a chance you're not towncleared to me if hb flips town I guess

Feel really good about him being scum though, thus I have no choice but to clear you.

Peace___Frog posted...

My theory is that wallz is scum because he is creating fake reads without much behind them.

My theory is his reads are legitimate but he's not articulating them well and is being pressured by people to give them.

I honestly haven't had a problem with Wallz's stuff since the initial Ulti read. It hasn't been committal but it's day 1 who can be committal.

Like if your theory is "Wallz is scum because Ulti had shared with scum chat that he was going to lay low" perhaps spamming I Am The King youtubes is the wrong way to go about it? I do give Ulti more credit than that to follow through with a gameplan.

htaeD posted...

See I wondered if this meant that Wallz might know more about how Ulti wanted to play as opposed to how Ulti actually played

Ulti failed miserably with how he wanted to play if he did that though