Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 332: Pence Ignores Aide's Virus

(+) Yeah! (+)

Not even remotely my topic title, but there are just some times when the news comes up with the exact perfect choice for how to label a story.

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Rounding the corner
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Tomorrow is Amy Barrett Day. Interesting that all news about her confirmation has sort of dropped off the radar screen.

U-Turning the corner.

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Cyrlous posted...

Tomorrow is Amy Barrett Day. Interesting that all news about her confirmation has sort of dropped off the radar screen.

Nothing overpowers approaching single digits from an election.

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It took me a second to comprehend the topic title, but yikes.

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Trafalgar Group doing God's work.



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interesting that the percentages are basically identical in all three states
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Dunno. They were the most accurate poll in 3 swing states in 2016 though.

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I've been confused by the Michigan polls for a while. Looking back over the past 3 weeks, there's 4 polls that have Trump ahead (3 from Trafalgar one of which is marked as a partisan poll, and 1 from Zia Poll). However in that time period I counted 25 other polls of the state, and none of them have come out with anything lower than Biden+5. Not sure what the takeaway from this is supposed to be.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/
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pyresword posted...

I've been confused by the Michigan polls for a while. Looking back over the past 3 weeks, there's 4 polls that have Trump ahead (3 from Trafalgar one of which is marked as a partisan poll, and 1 from Zia Poll). However in that time period I counted 25 other polls of the state, and none of them have come out with anything lower than Biden+5. Not sure what the takeaway from this is supposed to be.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/

Dunno
Look at 2016

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html

It's either hard to poll there or 2016 was a fluke.


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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320381379067215875?s=19

You can safely ignore them.

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https://twitter.com/jeremykonyndyk/status/1320386624237293570?s=21

Absolutely disgusting (and surrendering to the virus is a completely accurate characterization of the Trump strategy).

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TheRock1525 posted...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320381379067215875?s=19

You can safely ignore them.

I forget if it was Trafalgar or some other known partisan R poll that said they were just introducing a "shy Trump voter" assumption into their modeling which would give him better results than what the raw data was saying.

But yeah, lol trafalgar.

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xp1337 posted...

I forget if it was Trafalgar or some other known partisan R poll that said they were just introducing a "shy Trump voter" assumption into their modeling which would give him better results than what the raw data was saying.

That's them. I feel like essentially they just want to be able to say they got it right and all the other polls got it wrong if Trump wins rather than actually predicting the results of the election. Trump wins? Their polls were right! And they were one of the only ones that got it right. Biden wins? Oh well, nobody will remember them anyway and if they do they can point to getting the 2016 election right when so many others got it wrong.

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Dancedreamer posted...

That's them. I feel like essentially they just want to be able to say they got it right and all the other polls got it wrong if Trump wins rather than actually predicting the results of the election. Trump wins? Their polls were right! And they were one of the only ones that got it right. Biden wins? Oh well, nobody will remember them anyway and if they do they can point to getting the 2016 election right when so many others got it wrong.

I mean, that's what IBD has been trying to do despite the fact that their "we were the most accurate in 2016!" claim comes from them having Trump winning in a national (i,e, National Popular Vote) poll. They had Trump+2 in what was a Clinton+2 election! They weren't even close to the most accurate lol but they keep clinging to the part where they had Trump winning and ignore all the context that renders that as actually a bad result for them.

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This is encouraging (GA):

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320456864296013830?s=21

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/jeremykonyndyk/status/1320386624237293570?s=21

Absolutely disgusting (and surrendering to the virus is a completely accurate characterization of the Trump strategy).

When you're facing an enemy with overwhelming power, sometimes surrender is the best option. Better to surrender and get decent terms than wait until you have suffered massive defeat and have to surrender unconditionally. We should applaud Trump for having the courage to consider surrender at an early stage.

red sox, with all due respect

Shut the hell up

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HeroicCrono posted...

When you're facing an enemy with overwhelming power, sometimes surrender is the best option. Better to surrender and get decent terms than wait until you have suffered massive defeat and have to surrender unconditionally. We should applaud Trump for having the courage to consider surrender at an early stage.

It's not a surrender. It's a pandemic. Once it broke China's containment everyone was gonna get it. You can delay it with lockdowns but eventually herd immunity is the only answer via vaccines or infection. Vaccines usually take decades to make. We are hopefully getting one in under a year.

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interesting how this "enemy with overwhelming power" was "a virus that affects virtually nobody" not too long ago >_>

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heck yea let's negotiate with the virus

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Ok, virus. If you stop killing people, we are prepared to throw out all our leftover hoarded hand sanitizer.
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320497979405598720

I doubt there's any chance that Biden wins Texas if he wasn't already going to win anyway, but it is interesting to note that Clinton's states + TX is exactly 270 EVs...!

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HeroicCrono posted...

When you're facing an enemy with overwhelming power, sometimes surrender is the best option. Better to surrender and get decent terms than wait until you have suffered massive defeat and have to surrender unconditionally. We should applaud Trump for having the courage to consider surrender at an early stage.

An anonymous source is reporting that a COVID representative has offered the following choices, of which at least 1 must be taken:

• +50% spread but -50% lethality
• -60% AoE but +5 day recovery
• +10% stock market but +20% lethality

We are still waiting on a response from the administration.

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So re: Trafalgar --

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320425285955833857
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320442694544576518

Apparently those crosstabs from the Trafalgar poll Rock posted earlier were likely among the first ones Trafalgar has posted, and now the data has mysteriously been taken down.
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omg i will laugh so hard if they screwed up and posted their crosstabs when they meant to obfuscate them as usual

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/north-dakota-wants-to-divert-dollar16m-in-covid-stimulus-funds-to-fracking

.....

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Seanchan posted...

An anonymous source is reporting that a COVID representative has offered the following choices, of which at least 1 must be taken:
* +50% spread but -50% lethality
* -60% AoE but +5 day recovery
* +10% stock market but +20% lethality
We are still waiting on a response from the administration.

Hmm I wonder which one saves the most lives. Probably option A. 50% of 150% is 75%. B would reduce R but might not affect total deaths/cases, just make the process take longer.

https://twitter.com/PoliticusSarah/status/1320519094295240712

He's such a fucking whiner

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Mark Meadows (and according to Meadows, Trump) wanted to keep the public from learning of the covid cluster in Pence's staff:

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1320521433135501313

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https://twitter.com/ditzkoff/status/1320547070638477312

lmfao

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hoping for the best

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/10/24/in-n-h-political-watchers-say-trump-and-biden-likely-locked-in-a-closer-race-than-polls-show/

Doubt that. Lol.

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Ughhh 2016 repeat

that article is a few delusional trump people just making guesses. It doesnt worry me.
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The polls in NH were basically right on in 2016 when aggregated.

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2016 was skewed because the Comey letter messed up the polling.

Virtually every poll post Comey showed the shift.

There are no shenanigans this year.

The problem is that it literally cannot be 2016 again.

2016 was the polls being mostly right because they were A) within the margin of error, B) third party voters were much smaller than expected and C) undecided votes broke heavily for Trump.

2020 features significantly less undecided/third party voters and a much bigger lead (Biden is sitting at 9%, Clinton was 3.8% heading into election day). The only way Trump wins is through fuckery OR the polls are actually off this time. Because even a 4% polling error (which would be huge) would still put Biden up 5% nationally, and that would still give him a 90% chance of winning (+3% is the break even point for a Dem since there's a +2.8 R lean for the popular vote vs. electoral college).

Trump can still win, but the odds are lower. And remember last time he barely won thanks to the way less than 100k people voted in 3 states.

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There aren't a bunch of big third party spoilers this year either.

Leafeon13N posted...

There aren't a bunch of big third party spoilers this year either.

Democrats took care of any potential snags on the ballots lol.

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The white house announced 4-5 more peace deals with Israel are in the works, and it led me to wondering. What happened to all the supposed repercussions and destabilization that all of you kept saying would happen when calling Trump an idiot for moving the embassy to Jerusalem?


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Corrik7 posted...

Democrats took care of any potential snags on the ballots lol.

You mean the third parties that refused to pay the required amount to appear on the ballots? Or the third party that didn't do their paperwork correctly?

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Corrik7 posted...

The white house announced 4-5 more peace deals with Israel are in the works, and it led me to wondering. What happened to all the supposed repercussions and destabilization that all of you kept saying would happen when calling Trump an idiot for moving the embassy to Jerusalem?

Until there's a peace deal with Palestine, all he's doing is creating peace deals among non-hostile nations.

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TheRock1525 posted...

Until there's a peace deal with Palestine, all he's doing is creating peace deals among non-hostile nations.

They are normalizing relations between countries that doesn't have normalized relations. It's basically the same as normalizing relations with China back in the day.

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Sudan is to normalise relations with Israel - the latest in a series of Arab League countries to do so.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump has removed Sudan from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism, unblocking economic aid and investment.

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Meanwhile, Israel said it would not oppose US sales of high-grade military hardware to the UAE. The US had agreed to consider allowing the UAE to buy F-35 fighter jets after normalising ties with Israel.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54554286

Gee, I wonder why these nations are agreeing to normalize relations with Israel.

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TheRock1525 posted...

Sudan is to normalise relations with Israel - the latest in a series of Arab League countries to do so.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump has removed Sudan from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism, unblocking economic aid and investment.

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Meanwhile, Israel said it would not oppose US sales of high-grade military hardware to the UAE. The US had agreed to consider allowing the UAE to buy F-35 fighter jets after normalising ties with Israel.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54554286

Gee, I wonder why these nations are agreeing to normalize relations with Israel.

Libya refused to normalize with Israel unless taken off the terrorism list. Libya paid the United States a lump sum for removal as part of the process.

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I think the biggest sign that Trump has a good chance of losing is that they're pushing forward the nomination of the Handmaid's Tale in the Supreme Court.

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Ashethan posted...

I think the biggest sign that Trump has a good chance of losing is that they're pushing forward the nomination of the Handmaid's Tale in the Supreme Court.

Eh, I dunno. I think they'd do that regardless. I can't imagine any political party letting such a golden opportunity go to waste.

Very interesting article regarding a study comparing the Republicans to other right-wing governing parties:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/26/republican-party-autocratic-hungary-turkey-study-trump

Effectively, in terms of democratic norms the Republicans are much closer to the AKP in Turkey, Fidesz in Hungary, and the BJP in India than to mainstream right parties, and its been a steady slide. Indeed, only 15% of parties worldwide are less liberal (in the democratic sense) than the Republicans.

This is really the most important thing about the election. You can go Hmm, Trump DID normalise relations with country X all you like, but this is a fight for democracy. If Trump wins that is the end of democracy in the United States. There will be elections, of course, but not free and fair, and never shifting the real power. This is not an exaggeration.

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