Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 332: Pence Ignores Aide's Virus

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lightning Strikes posted...

Very interesting article regarding a study comparing the Republicans to other right-wing governing parties:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/26/republican-party-autocratic-hungary-turkey-study-trump

Effectively, in terms of democratic norms the Republicans are much closer to the AKP in Turkey, Fidesz in Hungary, and the BJP in India than to mainstream right parties, and its been a steady slide. Indeed, only 15% of parties worldwide are less liberal (in the democratic sense) than the Republicans.

This is really the most important thing about the election. You can go Hmm, Trump DID normalise relations with country X all you like, but this is a fight for democracy. If Trump wins that is the end of democracy in the United States. There will be elections, of course, but not free and fair, and never shifting the real power. This is not an exaggeration.

Yes, Trump is a wannabe fascist, and as he destroys more and more norms and institutions that "wannabe" part is fading away.

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Exactly, and lets bear in mind that this study is actually based on the 2016 and 2018 Republican platforms. They are more authoritarian now.

My partner is Turkish, and she tells me that they predict what Trump will do next based on what Erdogan has done, with shocking accuracy. They are basically the same person at this point and that should really worry everyone.

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Cyrlous posted...

Eh, I dunno. I think they'd do that regardless. I can't imagine any political party letting such a golden opportunity go to waste.

I think they also want to make sure she's there before Election Day so she can (theoretically) rule in their favor on any election fuckery or other bullshit like allowing the President to pardon himself during the lame duck period.

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Lightning Strikes posted...

Exactly, and lets bear in mind that this study is actually based on the 2016 and 2018 Republican platforms. They are more authoritarian now.

My partner is Turkish, and she tells me that they predict what Trump will do next based on what Erdogan has done, with shocking accuracy. They are basically the same person at this point and that should really worry everyone.

But clearly a social justice dystopia would be even worse!

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https://twitter.com/smotus/status/1320692906986909696

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5KNJrt_DTo&feature=emb_logo

LMFAO... they said this ad played during the Walking Dead haha.

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Biden's back up to 88 on 538 after briefly dipping to 86 a few days ago

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By the way, the internet sleuths are trying to say that the underage girl that Hunter Biden supposedly is intimate with in one of the videos is Natalie Biden, based on supposed birthmarks on her feet/ankles that supposedly matches up.

Probably another pizzagate, but the theories spawning are getting quite wild.

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Lightning Strikes posted...

This is really the most important thing about the election. You can go Hmm, Trump DID normalise relations with country X all you like, but this is a fight for democracy. If Trump wins that is the end of democracy in the United States. There will be elections, of course, but not free and fair, and never shifting the real power. This is not an exaggeration.

The problem is, Republicans don't care much about democracy. Most of them would gladly make Donald Trump King if they thought they could.

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Corrik7 posted...

By the way, the internet sleuths are trying to say that the underage girl that Hunter Biden supposedly is intimate with in one of the videos is Natalie Biden, based on supposed birthmarks on her feet/ankles that supposedly matches up.

Probably another pizzagate, but the theories spawning are getting quite wild.

Just when I thought the Hunter Biden footjob was the maximum level of stupid, the internet finds a way to take it further.

God Bless America

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Just when I thought the Hunter Biden footjob was the maximum level of stupid, the internet finds a way to take it further.

God Bless America

Damn, I got called out as a "degenerate" who is "gaslighting" them with "strawman arguments" that should be "banned" or "put on ignore" because I said they shouldn't fall into conspiracy theories to try and discredit the opposite just because they want Trump to win on NeoGaf.

You fucking liberals have even ruined Conservative conversation. I hate yinz.

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Corrik7 posted...

Damn, I got called out as a "degenerate" who is "gaslighting" them with "strawman arguments" that should be "banned" or "put on ignore" because I said they shouldn't fall into conspiracy theories to try and discredit the opposite just because they want Trump to win on NeoGaf.

You fucking liberals have even ruined Conservative conversation. I hate yinz.

Don't blame liberals. Conservatives have always been snowflakey as shit. You just tend not to be put in situations where they disagree with you.

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Inviso posted...

Don't blame liberals. Conservatives have always been snowflakey as shit. You just tend not to be put in situations where they disagree with you.

No. Conservatives used to be like "fuck you. Go tell your boyfriend about it you fucking idiot. Your tears are gonna be delicious when reality hits you in the face." or shit like that. Now they literally use the exact same words as you. I am mightily disappointed. Maybe it's just an internet thing.

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They want Trump to win on NeoGaf?

Am I confusing that website with something else? I thought they were pretty left politically.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

They want Trump to win on NeoGaf?

Am I confusing that website with something else? I thought they were pretty left politically.

NeoGaf is the remnants from the ResetERA exodus.

It was very balanced politically for the first year or so after the split. It's become very further and further right as of late, however.

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Inviso posted...

Don't blame liberals. Conservatives have always been snowflakey as shit. You just tend not to be put in situations where they disagree with you.

i wouldn't say this applies to conservatives in general.

but the subset of alt-right trump supporters (presumably the people posting on neogaf) have always been the biggest snowflakes on the planet, yeah. has nothing to do with "liberals turning them into snowflakes."

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Corrik7 posted...

Conservatives used to be like "fuck you. Go tell your boyfriend about it you fucking idiot. Your tears are gonna be delicious when reality hits you in the face."

wait that's exactly how i post sometimes.

you like it when conservatives say shit like this to you?


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Mr Lasastryke posted...

wait that's exactly how i post sometimes.

you like it when conservatives say shit like this to you?

I don't really care if someone talks to me that way. I don't particularly "like" it. However, I don't mind it when the barbs can go back and forth in jest both ways.

I don't like it when you can say shit and when I dish it back I get moderated for it! lol

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Corrik7 posted...

I don't really care if someone talks to me that way. I don't particularly "like" it. However, I don't mind it when the barbs can go back and forth in jest both ways.

I don't like it when you can say shit and when I dish it back I get moderated for it! lol

yeah, you've often complained about my insults not getting modded (or not getting modded harshly enough) so that would indicate that you do care somewhat.

if it's just the inconsistency that bothers you, that's fine, i guess.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

They want Trump to win on NeoGaf?

Am I confusing that website with something else? I thought they were pretty left politically.

NeoGAF and ResetERA are both echo chambers and abrasive cesspools at this point
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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/wisconsin-results

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-results

Someone said that republicans are out pacing democrats in voting in Wisconsin and Michigan so far. And, I didn't believe that because other sites are saying the opposite. But, they did provide me with sources above. So, what's up with different sources having different numbers?

But then on another site I see this.

Michigan
Total ballots cast of 8.1 million registered voters: 1.8 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 62 percent. Trump: 38 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 139,000.Biden: 63 percent. Trump: 37 percent.
Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 96,000.Biden: 53 percent. Trump 47 percent.
Democratic takeaway: While Michigan does not have hard party registration figures like most other states, internal Democratic modeling gives Biden an edge so far.
Steve Pontoni (D), political consultant: "The number thats most interesting to me is that as of (Wednesday morning) over 250,000 people have voted who did not vote in 2016 and thats 23 percent of people who have already voted. And the average age is in the high 50s, and when we model them, its a strong Biden constituency from what we can see.
Republican takeaway: Though the Democratic lead before Election Day is big, Republicans are counting on strong white working-class support for Trump and relatively low Black voter enthusiasm for Biden in urban areas.
John Sellek (R), Harbor Strategic in Michigan: Polling here shows Biden leading amongst those who voted early so far, yet we are consistently seeing Republican voters expressing slightly higher excitement about voting than Democrats. We are also seeing Republicans conducting voter registration in blue-collar areas that's never been possible before. ... However, if turnout is over 5 million, which would break Michigan's 2008 record, it becomes very difficult to find enough Republicans to keep up at the statewide level.

Wisconsin
Total ballots cast of 3.6 million registered voters: 844,000 for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 61 percent. Trump: 39 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 66,000. Biden: 61 percent. Trump: 39 percent.
Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 10,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump: 47 percent.
Republican takeaway: The numbers on early voting and polling dont tell the whole story of Wisconsin. Rural whites are often undersampled in surveys and data on early votes arent always reported because smalltown clerks dont have the resources to quickly process and report the information to the state.
Keith Gilkes (R), the Champion Group in Wisconsin: In the past year or more, we've held more registration events and had more new registrations in rural parts of the state that Donald Trump won compared to what Hillary Clinton won. So, we have an influx of new voters and new registrants as well. If theres a slight uptick in white non-college educated in the rural areas of the state, its hard to account for that in polls. People take this state for granted all the time, and it comes back to bite them in the ass, which Hillary Clinton learned.
Democratic takeaway: Coronavirus cases are on the rise in Wisconsin, along with voter anger at Trumps handling of it.
Sachin Chheda (D), Nation Consulting in Wisconsin: Nobody's talking about Kenosha. They're talking about Covid. They're talking about these coronavirus numbers. And if you are a Republican counting on an in-person vote on Nov. 3, with the coronavirus numbers spiking, the chances of people showing up to vote are lower, especially if your base is older or more likely to get sick. They have to make up a huge deficit on Election Day in the middle of the biggest pandemic the country has seen in 100 years.

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That REALLY confuses me in part because we dont even register by party in Michigan

https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-5647_12539_29836-88652--,00.html

Where are they even getting those party registration numbers??
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Jakyl25 posted...

That REALLY confuses me in part because we dont even register by party in Michigan

https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-5647_12539_29836-88652--,00.html

Where are they even getting those party registration numbers??

I dunno it says this.

Party registration is modeled by TargetSmart from multiple commercial sources.

This is their website. https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

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Seanchan posted...

I think they also want to make sure she's there before Election Day so she can (theoretically) rule in their favor on any election fuckery or other bullshit like allowing the President to pardon himself during the lame duck period.

Well, that would be pretty suspicious if she gets on the court and then votes to give him the election wouldn't it?

Trump +1 in the Rasmussen General Election Poll today. lol

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Cyrlous posted...

Well, that would be pretty suspicious if she gets on the court and then votes to give him the election wouldn't it?

Yes, it is called fascism.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

They want Trump to win on NeoGaf?

Like 3 years ago now? GAF split due to sexual misconduct allegations that came up against the owner Evilore. After a few days of him failing to respond to it, membership and the mod team got fed up and started leaving en masse and began plans to make a new site, ResetERA. Obviously people go where the content goes, so did most the community overall move (probably helped that GAF's site went down for a few days amidst the drama).

So while the rest of the site moved over to ERA, GAF just became an empty graveyard of more conservative members who were unbothered by the allegations and some were just glad to see the progressive side of the site move away (as GAF was known for before the exodus). Of course, the news also brought a lot of excitement to the 4chans and GamerGate communities that have hated that "SJW site" so they went in to troll have a laugh but ended up just taking over the graveyard.

A bit at the start of the exodus Evilore said they planned to ban politics from the Off-Topic forums because it made the site too "toxic" and caused the exodus... but as that's what the new crowd of GAF was loving to revel in as well he ended up just making a 3rd subforum all about Politics instead. It's also "fun" how Evilore himself has gone along with the change and he now posts the same shit as the rest of them.

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I used to lurk that site once a year or so to check out their "post your gaming setup" topic. Some of them had baller pads and entertainment centers that really bucked the basement dweller stereotype.

And that's about all I know of GAF.

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Polls putting Biden and Trump on even footing in GA now.

Trump's here and looking rough.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1320761226335555585?s=09

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Yeah, after ERA split off from GAF, it's ERA that basically took the lion's share of the community with them to the extent that you'd probably be safe assuming that any priors you had about GAF from a few years ago apply to ERA, including that the prevailing political opinion there is left.

GAF itself went hard alt-right after the split.

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https://youtu.be/03I9BRSjJsU

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Huh.

Well this was a fun NeoGAF/ResetEra history lesson if nothing else! Thanks for the responses.

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Also a B- pollster released a +2 Trump poll in Pennsylvania today.

EVERYONE PANIC

(not really)

(its just one poll)

(but maybe do it anyway its that time of year)

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xp1337 posted...

GAF itself went hard alt-right after the split.

Incorrect but it is getting there as far as Q-Anonish I suppose. It's definitely not a white supremacy crowd.

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The sample size was something like 180 Republicans, 173 Democrats, and 33 Independents.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

Also a B- pollster released a +2 Trump poll in Pennsylvania today.

EVERYONE PANIC

(not really)

(its just one poll)

(but maybe do it anyway its that time of year)

If PA is going to Trump, it is because of the last debate and the fracking/oil stuff.

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Ignoring data that you don't like isn't a good sign. There was a lot of that going on in 2016 which is why so many people were gobsmacked by the election result.

I don't think anyone really knows what will happen at this point. In fact, we may not even know on election night.

Hopefully it won't end up being decided in court. That would be a nightmare and a disaster for our country.

My dad, his organization, and a bunch of his armed redneck friends are ready to start Civil War Part 2: Electric Boogaloo if Trump loses. And that's not ten people, that's 200 people, and if they're saying that i'm sure they aren't the only ones.

You should generally ignore crappy data whether you like it or not.

I don't know enough to say whether or not that small of a sample size is enough off of the top of my head. However their last poll cites a margin of error of 5% with the same sample size, so assuming that number is accurate this still seems potentially significant. (Unless maybe the way things are reported means that 5% margin of error in a head-to-head poll leads to a ten point shift? I don't know how these numbers are typically reported.)
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I generally assume partisan democrat and republican polls are about 2-3 in their parties favor. It's why I mention when they are partisan a lot and like that rcp does a good job at labeling them.

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PerfectChaosZ posted...

My dad, his organization, and a bunch of his armed redneck friends are ready to start Civil War Part 2: Electric Boogaloo if Trump loses. And that's not ten people, that's 200 people, and if they're saying that i'm sure they aren't the only ones.

Report them to the FBI?

Do you think they'd consider that a legitimate threat? They are white guys and it's not like they have a plan laying around that spells it out. Probably. Can I anonymously do that?

PerfectChaosZ posted...

Do you think they'd consider that a legitimate threat? They are white guys and it's not like they have a plan laying around that spells it out. Probably. Can I anonymously do that?

Yes.

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You can send it in anonymously if you want, but likely you are just overreacting and exaggerating. Better safe than sorry though!

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Corrik7 posted...

You can send it in anonymously if you want, but likely you are just overreacting and exaggerating. Better safe than sorry though!

Yup. You don't want to be the guy that was in a position to stop something like that but didn't because "what are the odds".

Plus, on a certain level, we've already got the proof here that you would be aware but did nothing. Not sure that means culpability in the eyes of the law but still...

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Well they've literally said that. A bunch. And they have a bunch of guns. They've literally made jokes that if the cops come for them they'll be like "well we'll just wait for them to run out of ammo!" and it's funny to them because they have all the ammo in the world. Who knows if they'd actually do something. Where do I report it, the FBI website or something?

https://tips.fbi.gov/

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I expect a lot of violence if Biden wins next Tuesday.

If Trump is winning on Tuesday but loses after mail-in are finished, I expect not only significantly more but that it will be sanctioned by Trump himself.

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Thanks. Ugh I hate this scary ass website- you are entering a government website! Warning: false tips may result in jail time! Well what if they investigate and don't find anything and accuse me of false tips? So if I do report and they don't do anything I'm screwed and if I don't report and they do do something I'm screwed? It's a bit of a toss of the coin either way.

PerfectChaosZ posted...

Thanks. Ugh I hate this scary ass website- you are entering a government website! Warning: false tips may result in jail time! Well what if they investigate and don't find anything and accuse me of false tips? So if I do report and they don't do anything I'm screwed and if I don't report and they do do something I'm screwed? It's a bit of a toss of the coin either way.

When they say false they mean made up 100%. You're fine. Also the FBI, generally, is very good at their job.

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