Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 332: Pence Ignores Aide's Virus

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1321207686902460417

jfc

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https://twitter.com/people4kam/status/1321191073805287424

Hillary all over again?

https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/1321209079499530246


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Corrik7 posted...

Hillary all over again?

not according to you!

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Dems are still over +300k in FL, and that's just by party registration (and polls seem to indicate considerably more Rs voting for Biden than Ds voting for Trump). In addition that doesn't account for independents, who most polls have breaking for Biden. Of course, more Rs will vote on election day, too.

Basically the only thing I'd take away from that is that Dems are getting in their votes earlier than Republicans are.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Basically the only thing I'd take away from that is that Dems are getting in their votes earlier than Republicans are.

It's a shame that this is objectively a bad thing (as far as election chances are concerned)

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https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

This one has the advantages compared to 2016. It defaults to in person only, but the numbers match up with all other sites when you put it to "ALL". Biden is up nearly 200k+ in advantages when you add them all up I believe and subtract Trumps. Looks like Trump is bringing out more than normal in Miami Dade though. (Assuming Repubs and Dems vote by party line which of course isn't always true).

272,573 to be exact.

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im a little dubious of the accuracy of a website that is predicated on the idea Biden will lose
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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1321207686902460417

jfc

hey you know what we really need for this monumental election in this bitterly divided country? Everyone bringing their fucking ak-47s to voting sites!

What could possibly go wrong?!

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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=10TmRAEMWpI

I love how mean this one is.

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I mean Florida is going to Florida.

never trust them

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No one is counting on Florida.

I can safely say that while staying in Key West, there was nothing but Biden signs here.

The Key West vote is safe!

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On behalf of Florida, I am sorry.

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https://twitter.com/billdifilippo/status/1321212544586055680?s=19

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With this Tony Bobulinski shit that's popping off now, the best case scenario for all of our sanity is that Joe Biden wins the election and then immediately dies.

For fucks sake, I can't handle another 4 years of Republicans crying over this shit that they couldn't give less of a fuck about if they'd have done it.

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What in the actual fuck are you talking about

I follow politics plenty and have never heard that name, first off. Secondly, you should know by now that regardless of whatever sins a dem may have committed, Republicans will pull up whatever weed they feel like from their stupid argument garden. Replacing one figure with another won't change that

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I have no idea who Tony Bobulinski is.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

With this Tony Bobulinski shit that's popping off now, the best case scenario for all of our sanity is that Joe Biden wins the election and then immediately dies.

For fucks sake, I can't handle another 4 years of Republicans crying over this shit that they couldn't give less of a fuck about if they'd have done it.

This is a good time to remember the scandals Republicans cared about during the Obama years.

Like Tan Suits
Riding a Bicycle
Dijon Mustard
And so many more.

As soon as someone wishes Kamala Harris a happy mother's day, they'll be bitching about how she doesn't even have any biological children.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

With this Tony Bobulinski shit that's popping off now, the best case scenario for all of our sanity is that Joe Biden wins the election and then immediately dies.

For fucks sake, I can't handle another 4 years of Republicans crying over this shit that they couldn't give less of a fuck about if they'd have done it.

If Biden dies there will be a similarly ridiculous conspiracy theory about Harris within a month

Peace___Frog posted...

What in the actual fuck are you talking about

I follow politics plenty and have never heard that name, first off. Secondly, you should know by now that regardless of whatever sins a dem may have committed, Republicans will pull up whatever weed they feel like from their stupid argument garden. Replacing one figure with another won't change that

He's part of the whole Hunter Biden laptop bullshit

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Anyway, since we're in the final week now I guess I'll put up some maps. May or may not be final, idk might have some changes on like Monday or day of, but here we go.

Control Map (Using 538's current polling average. Any lead under 3 is labelled Toss-Up, Any lead [3.0,5.9] is Lean, Any lead [6.0,9.9] is Likely. 10+ is Safe. Ends up as 290 - 125 with 123 tossups): https://www.270towin.com/maps/zlrdY

Alternate Control Map if you use Tilt to shade the toss-ups to polling average leader (357-181): https://www.270towin.com/maps/9VRjL

~~~
Current predix by me

Presidential (351-187): https://www.270towin.com/maps/G8lyl

I want to believe in the 413 EV map where OH, TX, and IA flip but I just don't think we'll get there. The GA belief is real tho.

Senate (51D-47R-2 Georgia runoffs): https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/M4EXd5

Too many House seats and races to look at but let's say a modest Dem gain there. idk +10 to 12ish over the current 233?

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hes a guy who did business with Hunter who has come out to corroborate some of the laptop stuff and he was on Tucker tonight

but even with whatever hes saying I cant figure out exactly what theyre accusing Joe Biden of. As far as I can tell theres no actual evidence that any business Hunter did with Chinese people was illegal and even if Joe was involved it happened after his time as VP was over so theres nothing inherently wrong with him being involved with business stuff.

The corruption accusations seem kind of just made up?
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MoogleKupo141 posted...

he was on Tucker tonight

Oh so it's nothing.

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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1321286217032290304?s=21

like its just so vague. Biden would go places and then Hunter was sucking up money and but... what? What precisely actually happened? Tell me a specific crime that occurred.
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There are absolutely no democratic candidates that fringe republicans would be unable to cook up some sort of bizarre conspiracy theory about based on three vague emails and a blurry photo from 1987. It just is what it is at this point. They already had/have stuff for both Sanders and Harris, and you could swap in any name in there and there would be some stupid rumor within days coming out of 4chan or something, I guarantee it.

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MoogleKupo141 posted...

hes a guy who did business with Hunter who has come out to corroborate some of the laptop stuff and he was on Tucker tonight

but even with whatever hes saying I cant figure out exactly what theyre accusing Joe Biden of. As far as I can tell theres no actual evidence that any business Hunter did with Chinese people was illegal and even if Joe was involved it happened after his time as VP was over so theres nothing inherently wrong with him being involved with business stuff.

The corruption accusations seem kind of just made up?

Yeah they are basically trying to do the nepotism angle, tinged with shades of "Hunter called Joe 'MY chairman'" which means they're commie sympathizers.

It's absolutely inane, BUT there is "substance" is the sense that "evidence" (of nothing, but yeah) exists, and god dammit I can't live like this.

As for them drumming something up for Kamala, at least they'd have to do it. I don't think it's fair to say "well they'll just make something up about her regardless" when some people in this topic just spent 9 months saying "Bernie is closer to their fake accusations" mattered.

xp1337 posted...

Current predix by me

Presidential (351-187): https://www.270towin.com/maps/G8lyl

I want to believe in the 413 EV map where OH, TX, and IA flip but I just don't think we'll get there. The GA belief is real tho.

Senate (51D-47R-2 Georgia runoffs): https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/M4EXd5

Too many House seats and races to look at but let's say a modest Dem gain there. idk +10 to 12ish over the current 233?

My gut response is I don't see Joe winning Florida, and I know the polls are slightly in his favor, but I don't see him winning North Carolina either.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/522910-cruz-hunter-biden-attacks-dont-move-a-single-voter

When even Ted Cruz is telling you the Hunter Biden angle is going nowhere.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

It's absolutely inane, BUT there is "substance" is the sense that "evidence" (of nothing, but yeah) exists, and god dammit I can't live like this.

Your problem is actually giving a damn what Republicans like that think. Unless you're going out of your way to read/hear what they're saying, who the hell cares?

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That FL/GA/NC corridor is tricky. I don't think there's any combination they could go in, including sweeps by either Trump or Biden, that would really surprise me. I just think between 2018 and COVID-19 that Biden takes them.

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Who's ready for blue TX and somehow still red FL

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Cruz told Jonathan Swan of Axios in an interview that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Bidens best moment in the Oct. 22 debate came when he brushed off Trumps attacks on his family

This is a very funny combination of words to see with my eyes.

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I'm very pessimistic on Florida as well. I know what the polls say, but 2018 was a wave election and we still lost both big state wide races while we were cleaning up in other areas of the country. We lost with a progressive candidate and we lost with a boring establishment candidate. I don't trust Florida, at all, until they surprise me.

And I agree about being down on NC. I'm worried this Cunningham idiocy is going to trickle elsewhere on the ballot too. I think it'll be close, but I'm definitely much more worried about NC than I was like a month ago.

Basically I'm hoping Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Michigan all behave themselves this time. I'm high on Arizona too, but the other swing states I'm not as bullish on.

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Don't get confused that I think the Hunter stuff matters or that there's anything to it.

I'm talking purely to save my sanity from having to see it in my news feed, I need this shit to pass already.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Who's ready for blue TX and somehow still red FL

I am. I feel like that somehow isn't out of the realm of possibility!

it relies on florida florida'ing it up somehow but they have that capacity.

And real talk I think TX flips before OH if you get me talking on how you get to the 413 dream.

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So you want somebody to die so that you don't have to ignore your news feed.

Huh.

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I will say that I am now Florida Man compared to 2018 when I was Michigan Man visiting Florida.

There's actually a good amount of Biden support here, and I'm in a county that Trump got 60% of the vote.

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I feel like if someone's posting conspiracy shit they're a pretty easy mute/block/unfollow/etc and the situation will pretty quickly be addressed!

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StealThisSheen posted...

So you want somebody to die so that you don't have to ignore your news feed.

Huh.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/facetious

The actual best case scenario is that he steps down to save my news feed, because it's not like he's going to actually DO anything personally.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Who's ready for blue TX and somehow still red FL

Why do yinz do this to yourselves every election. Focus on the states you need to win. Not pipe dreams.

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Corrik7 posted...

Why do yinz do this to yourselves every election. Focus on the states you need to win. Not pipe dreams.

Im just making a Florida joke...!

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Corrik7 posted...

Why do yinz do this to yourselves every election. Focus on the states you need to win. Not pipe dreams.

fairly sure lotm has no control over that

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The actual best case scenario is that he steps down to save my news feed, because it's not like he's going to actually DO anything personally.

That'll be even worse, because then we'll hear conspiracies about how the DNC got Kamala Harris as an 'unelected President for 4 years' for 4-8 years.

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Ashethan posted...

That'll be even worse, because then we'll hear conspiracies about how the DNC got Kamala Harris as an 'unelected President for 4 years' for 4-8 years.

If there are emails or text messages with this plan that get leaked somehow, sure thatll be annoying, but without anything tangible, its not the same.

Im willing to bet actual money Joes not gonna serve all the way to January 2025, so he might as well rip the band-aid off now and rest knowing he helped stop Trump.

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If he willingly steps down I'd count on it being after the mid terms which would give harris the potential for a partial term and 2 full terms.

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Hbthebattle posted...

fairly sure lotm has no control over that

Are you sure? I'm pretty sure he's Biden's campaign manager.

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I guess NYT reveal of Trump's $270 million in debt that got forgiven and untaxed isn't being mentioned because we all basically new already.

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https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/1321326559559495680

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Fuck em.

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https://www.foxnews.com/us/looters-in-philadelphia-ransack-stores-beat-reporter-during-second-night-of-chaos


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Wowwww this WaPo/ABC WI poll (also weird use of narrowly for their MI poll):

https://twitter.com/postpolls/status/1321392073094942720?s=21

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I hope my sister in law and her husband put their damn ballots in the mail so they actually get counted. I don't care how wide Biden is ahead in Wisconsin on the polls (or anywhere else), I want a huge margin of victory. The biggest, most beautiful blowout in favor of Biden.

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