Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 318: Markey Matchup

(+) Yeah! (+)

Corrik7 posted...

Because the normal person doesn't support violence

Unless youre a 100% pacifist, you support violence in certain situations
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xp1337 posted...

For all the hand-wringing about the protests and how they're going to help Trump. The data has not, and has never, reflected that.

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1301527711400316928

CNN poll has Biden+6 on "keep Americans safe from harm."
Fox News poll in Wisconsin has Biden 47-42 on handling of "policing and criminal justice"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-gets-good-polls-in-arizona-and-wisconsin-and-a-bad-one-in-pennsylvania/

Again, some fluctuation between polls so its hard to say for sure if there was any bounce. Those Arizona polls look phenomenal while that Pennsylvania one looks decidedly less good. I would agree that so far I dont think it has really hurt Biden all that much (I think he dropped like one percentage point in the overall model down to 69 from 70%) but Id like at least one more week of polling to see how Wisconsin looks particularly.

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https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/09/Arizona.pdf

One other delicious poll that is unambiguously great: Fox News has Kelly over McSally by seventeen.

I think that race is firmly out of toss up category now.

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There was a PA poll out a few hours ago by Quinnipiac with Biden+8. (And FL+3)

I'm inclined to think the Monmouth PA poll is an outlier but, as always, throw it on the pile with the Quinnipiac one.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

One other delicious poll that is unambiguously great: Fox News has Kelly over McSally by seventeen.

Apparently asking your supporters to starve themselves to give you money isn't a great selling point unless you're Donald Trump.

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Probably wont matter at all for Trump, but this would end the campaign of anyone else:

https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1301638423564951552?s=21

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FFDragon posted...

https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1301540686521667585?s=09

Trump trying to make his base sick(er) confirmed.

these will always be absolutely delicious

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Probably wont matter at all for Trump, but this would end the campaign of anyone else:

https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1301638423564951552?s=21

jfc

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Probably wont matter at all for Trump, but this would end the campaign of anyone else:

Of course not.

Magats will say "Fake news!"
If they had it on tape, they'd say "Taken out of context." or "It's a joke!"

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uhhhh LotM kinda burying the lede there. That might be the worst quote in the piece but that Atlantic article has like 10 different Top 5 all-time contenders. (yeah yeah Conway quotes the tweet that includes the article but holy shit)

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/

The Atlantic, about WWI, same trip as the quote from LotM's tweet from Conway.

But Trump, on that same trip, asked aides, "Who were the good guys in this war?" He also said that he didn't understand why the United States would intervene on the side of the Allies.

The Atlantic, about McCain's death.

When McCain died, in August 2018, Trump told his senior staff, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the event, "We're not going to support that loser's funeral," and he became furious, according to witnesses, when he saw flags lowered to half-staff. "What the fuck are we doing that for? Guy was a fucking loser," the president told aides.

The Atlantic, Memorial Day 2017.

Trump was meant, on this visit, to join John Kelly in paying respects at his son's grave, and to comfort the families of other fallen service members. But according to sources with knowledge of this visit, Trump, while standing by Robert Kelly's grave, turned directly to his father and said, "I don't get it. What was in it for them?" Kelly (who declined to comment for this story) initially believed, people close to him said, that Trump was making a ham-handed reference to the selflessness of America's all-volunteer force. But later he came to realize that Trump simply does not understand non-transactional life choices.

The Atlantic, on military parades.

Trump has been, for the duration of his presidency, fixated on staging military parades, but only of a certain sort. In a 2018 White House planning meeting for such an event, Trump asked his staff not to include wounded veterans, on grounds that spectators would feel uncomfortable in the presence of amputees. "Nobody wants to see that," he said.

~~~

AP Investigative Reporter stating that a Senior Defense Department official confirmed The Atlantic story in its entirety to him:

https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1301655895852670978

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i mean, mccain did suck.

those other quotes are abysmal and disgusting but it doesn't really bother me that trump didn't care about mccain's death/funeral.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

i mean, mccain did suck.

those other quotes are abysmal and disgusting but it doesn't really bother me that trump didn't care about mccain's death/funeral.

I mean, even if you think he sucked, it certainly wasnt because he was a prisoner of war or because he occasionally opposed Trump (which are Trumps reasons for disrespecting him).

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yeah, that's true. the chances trump disliked mccain for reasons that are actually good are 0%.

he probably hated him too because he lost to obama (given that he keeps harping on the "he was a loser" point).

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McCain sucked because he was a centrist.

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Can someone with a better grasp tell me how unemployment numbers work?

There seems to be major discrepancy over how many Americans are actually unemployed.

Some say 29 million (which at 10% unemployment seems impossible to me because it means 290 million Americans out of 330 million or whatever are in the workforce.)

I also see a number floating around of 14.5 million based on recurring claims + new claims for the week.

What is the truth here as far as unemployment or closer to the truth or so on?

When I figured out the EO money I see where they get the weeks number. 29 million at 300 for 5 weeks is 43 billion, and the fund is 44 billion.

If you use the 14.5 million number it obviously is 10 weeks. I don't know exactly where we truly are, and the maybe only so many weeks outfits are definitely using the 29 million number. Is that accurate though?

For example, I had this debate at work with a worker. He said we get 3 weeks of the $300. I said we might actually not get any, but that based on our unemployed in the state 550,000 and that FEMA allocated 1.5 billion to our state that it should in theory last 9 weeks. Of course a lot of those goes into backpay to August 1st and wipes out a lot of it from the start.

But anyone have an idea on the true grasp of what the current unemployed in America is?


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Corrik7 posted...

Can someone with a better grasp tell me how unemployment numbers work?

There seems to be major discrepancy over how many Americans are actually unemployed.

Some say 29 million (which at 10% unemployment seems impossible to me because it means 290 million Americans out of 330 million or whatever are in the workforce.)

I also see a number floating around of 14.5 million based on recurring claims + new claims for the week.

What is the truth here as far as unemployment or closer to the truth or so on?

When I figured out the EO money I see where they get the weeks number. 29 million at 300 for 5 weeks is 43 billion, and the fund is 44 billion.

If you use the 14.5 million number it obviously is 10 weeks. I don't know exactly where we truly are, and the maybe only so many weeks outfits are definitely using the 29 million number. Is that accurate though?

For example, I had this debate at work with a worker. He said we get 3 weeks of the $300. I said we might actually not get any, but that based on our unemployed in the state 550,000 and that FEMA allocated 1.5 billion to our state that it should in theory last 9 weeks. Of course a lot of those goes into backpay to August 1st and wipes out a lot of it from the start.

But anyone have an idea on the true grasp of what the current unemployed in America is?

https://www.bls.gov/bls/unemployment.htm

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I don't see what I am asking on there at a quick glance. But in comparison.

US Unemployment History
DateNational
Unemployment RateNational
Unemployed PersonsJuly 202010.2%16,338,000June 202011.1%17,750,000May 202013.3%20,985,000April 202014.7%23,078,000March 20204.4%7,140,000February 20203.5%5,787,000January 20203.6%5,892,000December 20193.5%5,753,000November 20193.5%5,811,000October 20193.6%5,857,000September 20193.5%5,753,000August 20193.7%5,999,000

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I can't tell if sites are playing politics with the numbers or what is going on with them.

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Sorry I can't point you to exactly what you're looking for. I just know that BLS is responsible for the unemployment numbers, so what you're looking for must be there someplace.

I believe you're considered unemployed if you are actively looking for work in...maybe the past 3 weeks (or months) or something like that. So if you stop looking then you are no longer considered unemployed.

I also believe it doesn't count under-employment, where you'd like to be working 40+ hours but you're only, say, working 30 hours instead.

So, as always, it's a lies, damn lies, statistics situation where you need to consider the source.

There MIGHT be multiple statistics on the BLS site, but if you're seeing different numbers it's likely from different considerations of unemployed and under-employed.

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Seanchan posted...

Sorry I can't point you to exactly what you're looking for. I just know that BLS is responsible for the unemployment numbers, so what you're looking for must be there someplace.

I believe you're considered unemployed if you are actively looking for work in...maybe the past 3 weeks (or months) or something like that. So if you stop looking then you are no longer considered unemployed.

I also believe it doesn't count under-employment, where you'd like to be working 40+ hours but you're only, say, working 30 hours instead.

So, as always, it's a lies, damn lies, statistics situation where you need to consider the source.

There MIGHT be multiple statistics on the BLS site, but if you're seeing different numbers it's likely from different considerations of unemployed and under-employed.

I guess the discrepancies are coming with the monthly job reports versus the claims.

This month the jobs report tomorrow is supposed to show America at under 10% unemployment. But, the people doing the claims report are saying that the new claims and unemployed increased. It's like they are at odds with one another. I am not sure if people not in the job market on PUA is causing the discrepancy or what.

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https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/09/03/president-donald-trumps-visit-puts-westmoreland-county-in-political-spotlight/

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I lived in Westmoreland County most of my life.

Can confirm they fucking loved Trump in 2016.

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29 million people are receiving some form of unemployment insurance as of mid-August which is up 2 million from last week.

The Department of Labor changed their methodology last week over how they seasonally adjust unemployment claims which happens to coincide with reporting a much lower seasonally adjusted number than they had even just the week before - and the lowest in quite some time - which is... suspect. Since they changed how they do this you can't really compare that number to previous seasonally adjusted numbers. Best you can do is compare the unadjusted numbers where the 833k last week is up from the 826k the week before. (Adjusted under the new methodology last week is 881k while the week prior (under the old method) was over a million for reference in how stark the difference is)

FWIW, BLS reports 10.5% unemployment for July (10.2% seasonally adjusted.) And specifically approximately 16.5m unemployed. (16.9m unadjusted, 16.3m adjusted.) With an additional ~8m people who "want a job" but are not included as part of the labor force. This plays into the various ways the unemployment rate is calculated. We had a similar discussion some time ago but the official unemployment rate is the "U3" rate and would not reflect that as it does not include those it considers outside the labor force even if they want a job. Similarly, those who are seeking a full-time job but have had to settle for part-time are not counted for the unemployment rate in U3.

So really this question comes down to how you want to define unemployed here. BLS probably has it covered, or close to it, but the official read-out is and always has been U3.

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http://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/video-police-put-hood-on-black-man-killed-by-asphyxiation

Again.

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In one account, the president told senior advisers that he didnt understand why the U.S. government placed such value on finding soldiers missing in action because they had performed poorly and gotten caught and deserved what they got, according to a person familiar with the discussion.

https://twitter.com/CarolLeonnig/status/1301723624089497600

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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1301726907298385921?s=21

Oh sure, criticizing the police is ok when TRUMP does it

(Side note, by the time he sent this tweet out the police had already killed the suspect. Whoops!)
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1301726907298385921?s=21

Oh sure, criticizing the police is ok when TRUMP does it

(Side note, by the time he sent this tweet out the police had already killed the suspect. Whoops!)

Why haven't they ARRESTED his corpse!

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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1301726907298385921?s=21

Oh sure, criticizing the police is ok when TRUMP does it

(Side note, by the time he sent this tweet out the police had already killed the suspect. Whoops!)

How did that happen?

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https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2020/09/man-sought-in-the-fatal-downtown-portland-shooting-reported-to-have-been-killed-by-officers-in-wa.html

Ah I see. Good ol Antifa

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I do like how in that article the guy said he wasn't a part of any group

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/CarolLeonnig/status/1301723624089497600

Hey Lincoln Project hurry up and make an add about how Trump doesnt care about the troops and insults them/disrespects them.

Might be one of the few things that make them care.

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Speaking of which, a non-anonymous confirmation of the McCain part of the story:

https://twitter.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1301838420466114560

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POW part shouldnt need much confirmation. He publicly stated his belief that POWs were losers and failures when criticizing McCain.

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I'm sure he said all of it! I think it's just more impactful if sources are willing to come out publicly. Honestly, though, the fact that this makes total sense as being a thing that Trump would say should be a sufficiently big indictment of him as-is.

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Corrik7 posted...

Can someone with a better grasp tell me how unemployment numbers work?

We don't get to know the actual numbers, because America's definition of unemployed is a little odd.

America tallies the unemployed as "people looking for work, but unable to find it"

I don't know the specific metrics, but after a while, it's assumed that people "give up looking" and are no longer unemployed

I think it's usually when your unemployment insurance runs out (usually after 26 weeks, depending on the state, currently 30- something). You're either taken off the list, or there is no incentive to register so you don't register

I was furloughed once, and since i got severance pay i wasn't eligible for unemployment, and therefore didn't apply and wasn't counted

I've never actually looked up the formulas, but this is what I've been told

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Trump is killing the militarys newspaper:

https://twitter.com/defensebaron/status/1301874647940636672?s=21

Disgusting move. I suspect it might have to do with them helping to conduct a poll that came out a few days ago that had Biden up over Trump by a few points among soldiers.

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Corrik7 posted...

https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2020/09/man-sought-in-the-fatal-downtown-portland-shooting-reported-to-have-been-killed-by-officers-in-wa.html

Ah I see. Good ol Antifa

Yeah the law outsmarted our getaway plan this time!
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banananor posted...

I've never actually looked up the formulas, but this is what I've been told

BLS's U3 Unemployment (again this is the official rate) defines unemployed as someone who meets all of the following criteria:

Not employed during the reference week
Were available to be employed during that reference week
Made an active effort to seek employment during the last 4 weeks ending with said reference week with exception to people laid off and expecting recall.

Eligibility or receipt of unemployment insurance has no bearing on how BLS determines if you're considered unemployed.

BLS additionally compiles statistics on what it considers "marginally attached to the labor force" for those who are not working or actively looking for work but indicate they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past year, "discouraged workers" which is a subset of the above where they gave a job-market related reason for their not looking looking for work, as well as "persons employed part time for economic reasons" for those who want and are avilable for a full-time job but have had to settle for part-time employment.

BLS calculates the unemployment rate accounting for those groups as U5, U4, and U6 unemployment rates respectively but again those aren't considered the official unemployment rate and you have to read the report to get to them.

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My Facebook is an uproar lol.

https://triblive.com/news/banner/wendy-bell-taken-off-the-air-by-kdka-radio/

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Bell, an award winning journalist for 18 years at WTAE-TV, was fired by the station four years ago for a post on her official Facebook page made after a mass shooting in Wilkinsburg. Before police had made any arrests in the case, Bell wrote, You neednt be a criminal profiler to draw a mental sketch of the killers who broke so many hearts two weeks ago Wednesdaythey are young black men, likely in their teens or early 20s. They have multiple siblings from multiple fathers and their mothers work multiple jobs.

Sounds like a real winner.

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TheRock1525 posted...

Bell, an award winning journalist for 18 years at WTAE-TV, was fired by the station four years ago for a post on her official Facebook page made after a mass shooting in Wilkinsburg. Before police had made any arrests in the case, Bell wrote, You neednt be a criminal profiler to draw a mental sketch of the killers who broke so many hearts two weeks ago Wednesdaythey are young black men, likely in their teens or early 20s. They have multiple siblings from multiple fathers and their mothers work multiple jobs.

Sounds like a real winner.

Following your post, I went to look up the results of that case.

https://mb.ntd.com/cheron-shelton-acquitted-of-pennsylvania-bbq-murder-charges_435002.html

"One of the witnesses said Thomas indicated Shelton wanted to shoot more people at the cookout victims' funerals, but Thomas claimed to have talked him out of it.

"I'm trying to treat them like the Jews; I'm trying to eliminate their whole blood lines," Thomas told the witness, quoting Shelton's intentions, according to police.

A second witness said Shelton "told him he was 'hitting them' with the 'chopper'" - street slang for an AK-47 - "and that he wanted everyone gone," investigators said."

Apparently jailhouse witnesses offered lighter sentences to testify aren't the most reliable evidence.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/jobs-report-august-2020-.html

uh oh

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Why is that uh oh

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KamikazePotato posted...

Why is that uh oh

Because it means Trump is going to win.

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Trump is done, bud.

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Associated Press confirming the military story from last night, in case anyone didn't believe it.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/two-senior-officials-confirm-some-of-trumps-remarks-about-fallen-soldiers-to-ap

Lots of people on my Facebook were calling it fake news but I doubt this will away them either.

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I mean, it's easy to pull bad news out of that jobs report if you care to, I just haven't because I don't see a need to reflexively attack every piece of news that could be construed as positive for Trump.

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I'm definitely not going to discount your opinion, Corrik, as you actually live in a swing state and talk with swing voters, but that's not what I'm seeing lately.

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Biden is telling people who believe in QAnon to use mental health resources they have under Obamacare.

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That sounds like good advice

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