Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 297: Mnuchin's Oddysee

(+) Yeah! (+)

SmartMuffin posted...

I'm pretty sure Lincoln Chafee formally dropped out like two months ago...

Youre right. Amash was still on the ballot too.

If he hadnt dropped out, Im sure Lincoln would be getting all the votes. He just wanted to give other people a chance.
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Trump is pushing another Seth Rich-style conspiracy:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1264346866780700675?s=21

So now I guess this womans parents are probably gonna have to deal with all of the shit that his parents did

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Story on the clusterfuck rollout of Trumps European travel ban (summary thread):

https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/status/1264309533079453696?s=21

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Concast should open up a long overdue Florida Cold Case against Psycho Joe Scarborough, Trump said in early May.

why does he think Comcast investigates cold cases

also the death was officially ruled not a murder so its not even a cold case... its just closed
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does comcast own unsolved mysteries?

legit can't rule that out that that might be it

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xp1337 posted...

Meanwhile, in Oregon, the GOP is running a QAnon believer for the US Senate.

The campaign sent out a statement trying to distance it from her. Then...

https://twitter.com/travis_view/status/1263921723960745984

Full article: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republicans-wrestle-conspiracy-theory-advocate-winning-senate-primary/story?id=70829450

I guess you explicitly said it in your post, but when I read this my brain would not let me process this and automatically made me interpret it this being a candidate for State Senate

But it's actually the US Senate?

What the fuck

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I don't fully understand the Trump phenomenon. Do people really stick by him more for what he represents than what he actually does?

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

I don't fully understand the Trump phenomenon. Do people really stick by him more for what he represents than what he actually does?

Its complicated.

A combination of imbalanced media coverage, old propaganda techniques repurposed for social media, racism, sexism, and then ultimately a desire for easy answers over real solutions to life's problems.

Trump paints everything black and white, points and says "That is evil" and to people its easier to smile and nod than actually use their brain.

combine that with a concerted effort by our greatest adversary in Russia trying to help keep Trump propped up via social media and you get things like thousands of bots hashtagging obamagate every 5 seconds.

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I get the feeling the worse things get in America the more likely it is for Trump to be re-elected, and that he might even realize this. So he's deliberately stalling out the whole pandemic knowing his supporters will blame it on China instead of him and will pine for him even more strongly.

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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/24/us/us-coronavirus-deaths-100000.html

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

I get the feeling the worse things get in America the more likely it is for Trump to be re-elected, and that he might even realize this. So he's deliberately stalling out the whole pandemic knowing his supporters will blame it on China instead of him and will pine for him even more strongly.

No his numbers have been tanking.

At this point the Republican strategy is pretend the pandemic is over and never really existed in the first place.

November is a long way away, hard to say what things will look like then.

Wouldn't be surprised if he announces a vaccine or something on like November 1st, tbh.

trump's handling of the pandemic turned out to be positive toward negative

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100k before June.

And this is with social distancing.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

100k before June.

And this is with social distancing.

Very limited social distancing at this point.

And flatten the curve has been twisted to mean get to the top of the curve and make a line.

Its not a fucking curve at that point you morons.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I don't fully understand the Trump phenomenon. Do people really stick by him more for what he represents than what he actually does?

100% what he represents.

What he actually does is stupid and pointless. The fact that he represents a giant middle finger to the establishment is literally the only reason to support him at all.

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Leafeon13N posted...

No his numbers have been tanking.

At this point the Republican strategy is pretend the pandemic is over and never really existed in the first place.

November is a long way away, hard to say what things will look like then.

Wouldn't be surprised if he announces a vaccine or something on like November 1st, tbh.

I know but there's a bit of a feeling of inevitability. That said, some of the factors that helped Trump win the first election do not seem to have been going his way.

I've been thinking maybe the reason Trump won the 2016 election was because he went against an opponent with a ridiculous amount of baggage, so many people waited until seemingly the last moment to commit to voting for him. All signs point to Trump no longer having this advantage now, but I get the feeling Joe Biden also isn't nearly as popular as Hillary Clinton. We shall see.

Or you can just take my route and summarize the reason Trump won the 2016 election: people didn't want a woman as president.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I guess you explicitly said it in your post, but when I read this my brain would not let me process this and automatically made me interpret it this being a candidate for State Senate

But it's actually the US Senate?

What the fuck

I explicitly said it in my post precisely because of that very instinct!

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https://twitter.com/anncoulter/status/1264477779086671872?s=21

Ann is mad at Trump again
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https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1478272444l/30634922._SY475_.jpg

this never gets old

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Btw we get a false equivalence in regards to COVID-19 and the flu, we know now mortality is not as high as feared, but still likely at least 3 to 4 times as deadly as the flu.

However, that is a case by case basis, it doesn't take into account how infectious and easily spread the virus is, nor does it take into account our ability to vaccinate and protect ourselves from a flu outbreak.

Because it is already 3-4 times as deadly as the flu, but spreads at a rate through our communities that is far higher than the flu, the amount of a danger it is to society is actually far greater than the raw 3-4 times mortality rate.

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red13n posted...

Btw we get a false equivalence in regards to COVID-19 and the flu, we know now mortality is not as high as feared, but still likely at least 3 to 4 times as deadly as the flu.

However, that is a case by case basis, it doesn't take into account how infectious and easily spread the virus is, nor does it take into account our ability to vaccinate and protect ourselves from a flu outbreak.

Because it is already 3-4 times as deadly as the flu, but spreads at a rate through our communities that is far higher than the flu, the amount of a danger it is to society is actually far greater than the raw 3-4 times mortality rate.

Where are you getting 3-4? Afaik the low end of the estimate is still like 0.5%, and even for the flu 0.1% is only for particularly bad years (it's often lower than that by a factor of 2 or 3 iirc). You can also use NYC to give a lower bound on the COVID death rate of like 0.25%, which is what it would be if everyone in NYC had it, no deaths were missing, and no one else died after like a week ago when I last calculated this.

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Sorry, I fucked up when I calculated that; I guess the number I thought was NYC deaths was actually NY State deaths. The lower bound based on current NYC deaths is 0.19%.

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Leafeon13N posted...

Very limited social distancing at this point.

And flatten the curve has been twisted to mean get to the top of the curve and make a line.

Its not a fucking curve at that point you morons.

Flatten the curve has always been supposed to be to keep it from exponentially rising above hospital limits.

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Corrik7 posted...

Flatten the curve has always been supposed to be to keep it from exponentially rising above hospital limits.

you saw the graphs we were shown.

they never showed "Get the middle and stay there" they all curved back down.

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And I want to reiterate I'm not advocating return to full lockdown.

I am advocating not creating situations where people crowd a fucking beach or similar.

LordoftheMorons posted...

Where are you getting 3-4? Afaik the low end of the estimate is still like 0.5%, and even for the flu 0.1% is only for particularly bad years (it's often lower than that by a factor of 2 or 3 iirc). You can also use NYC to give a lower bound on the COVID death rate of like 0.25%, which is what it would be if everyone in NYC had it, no deaths were missing, and no one else died after like a week ago when I last calculated this.

just using current CDC estimates.


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red13n posted...

you saw the graphs we were shown.

they never showed "Get the middle and stay there" they all curved back down.

That was also assuming a smaller tail and relocking down after every time we reopened again, indefinitely until a vaccine was formed.


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red13n posted...

I am advocating not creating situations where people crowd a fucking beach or similar.

Do you think they would crowd specific places if all places were open?

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Corrik7 posted...

Do you think they would crowd specific places if all places were open?

yes

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Corrik7 posted...

Do you think they would crowd specific places if all places were open?

So you think finally being allowed to do things and all places not being open has nothing to do with crowding?

Didn't the California beach debacle shed a little light on that thought process?

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Corrik7 posted...

Didn't the California beach debacle shed a little light on that thought process?

they decided to open beaches at the same time we had a heat wave.

it was a disaster that was easily preventable.

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red13n posted...

they decided to open beaches at the same time we had a heat wave.

it was a disaster that was easily preventable.

They shut down a specific beach. Which led to a migration influx of crowding to a beach down the coast. Etc etc.

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Corrik7 posted...

They shut down a specific beach. Which led to a migration influx of crowding to a beach down the coast. Etc etc.

which are you referring to? because that isn't what happened near me.

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Article I read prior which I can't find at the moment said they shut down Orange County beach at Huntington and Newport. That the county south of it complained it was causing overcrowding at their beaches and that they were trying to enforce only allowing their country residents to the beach (however they planned to do that is beyond me). They were having council meetings to discuss possibly shutting down their own beaches due to the situation.

I am still at shock you feel that an influx doesn't happen if you are allowed to suddenly do something one day you normally could do all the time but weren't allowed to do for a long time prior.

Or that a lack of other things being open doesn't cause an influx.

What you wanna do today. Well, uh, let's see. Out to eat? Closed. Movie? Closed. Arcade? Closed. Bar? Closed. Gym? Closed. Uhhh, mini golf? Closed. Museum? Closed. Theme park? Closed. Beach? OPEN!

Like the fact you think that doesn't cause an influx kinda perplexes me, red.

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The phenomenon of Trump he himself explained when he was still a candidate:
He said his supporters would support him even if he shot someone in broad daylight. He was a laughingstock back then. Now far less people are laughing.

Basically, his supporters put their word in him as if he's a deity. Anything he says is truth, anything unfavorable to him is fake. It's classic cult of personality.

Now he's supporting news that only favors him, and even bashes Fox, which is clearly heavily biased in his favor. But heavily biased isn't enough for someone as narcissistic as President Trump. He must be unquestioned. All of his concerns and conspiracies must not only be acknowledged as legitimate, but outright true. Anything unfavorable to him must be downplayed or ignored.

And now he wants to investigate "unfair" bias against conservatives. What we are seeing is a full on war on political freedom in this country. He's going to go after anyone that says things unfavorable about him, or who disagree with him. And his supporters, like puppets, eat it all up. They are turning into enemies of political freedom; aggressors eating up propaganda that they are the ones being oppressed.

This MUST. NOT. HAPPEN. For the sake of this country, Trump and his far right allies must lose. Honorable Republicans need to take back that party ASAP.

Corrik7 posted...

Article I read prior which I can't find at the moment said they shut down Orange County beach at Huntington and Newport. That the county south of it complained it was causing overcrowding at their beaches and that they were trying to enforce only allowing their country residents to the beach (however they planned to do that is beyond me). They were having council meetings to discuss possibly shutting down their own beaches due to the situation

Those beaches got shut down because they were literally full of a bunch of idiots ignoring distancing guidelines and the county/city were refusing to enforce them.

They got reopened a few days later with modified guidelines.

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Voxwik posted...

The phenomenon of Trump he himself explained when he was still a candidate:
He said his supporters would support him even if he shot someone in broad daylight. He was a laughingstock back then. Now far less people are laughing.

Basically, his supporters put their word in him as if he's a deity. Anything he says is truth, anything unfavorable to him is fake. It's classic cult of personality.

Now he's supporting news that only favors him, and even bashes Fox, which is clearly heavily biased in his favor. But heavily biased isn't enough for someone as narcissistic as President Trump. He must be unquestioned. All of his concerns and conspiracies must not only be acknowledged as legitimate, but outright true. Anything unfavorable to him must be downplayed or ignored.

And now he wants to investigate "unfair" bias against conservatives. What we are seeing is a full on war on political freedom in this country. He's going to go after anyone that says things unfavorable about him, or who disagree with him. And his supporters, like puppets, eat it all up. They are turning into enemies of political freedom; aggressors eating up propaganda that they are the ones being oppressed.

This MUST. NOT. HAPPEN. For the sake of this country, Trump and his far right allies must lose. Honorable Republicans need to take back that party ASAP.

Yeah, that's why Hillary Clinton had to be stopped. That's why the moderate Dems have to be stopped. To save our political freedom.

Once we've stopped that threat, we can vote out Trump, but until then, gotta focus on the most pressing danger to freedom.

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Corrik7 posted...

I am still at shock you feel that an influx doesn't happen if you are allowed to suddenly do something one day you normally could do all the time but weren't allowed to do for a long time prior.

Also it literally coincided with a heat wave we had. It was the first test of guidelines we already had in place with beaches opened and they failed miserably necessitating a shutdown and more clarified, somewhat enforced, modifications.

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Corrik7 posted...

What you wanna do today. Well, uh, let's see. Out to eat? Closed. Movie? Closed. Arcade? Closed. Bar? Closed. Gym? Closed. Uhhh, mini golf? Closed. Museum? Closed. Theme park? Closed. Beach? OPEN!

Also ways to tell someone doesn't live in the Los Angeles region of southern california.

Outside of Arcades and museums, all of those things you listed would still be incredibly crowded at even 50% of their capacity.

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Moderates are the only ones that represent a majority of the country. Bring on ranked choice elections to get these polarized clowns out. Ranked choice means a third party vote isn't a vote for the worse of the two extremes.

I'm actually glad Biden got the nomination. He's far from perfect, but at least he isn't a pie-in-the-sky wish-master that doesn't give a care half the country disagrees with their goals like some on the far left.

I like Bernie. I kind of like Elizabeth Warren. I think AOC is completely unrealistic in her wish list. Any of those three probably would have handed Trump another term because they are probably unelectable to moderates.

You guys aren't really contradicting each other. It's both true that opening a bunch of places is going to cause people to swarm to them and overcrowd them AND that these reopened parks and businesses aren't following the guidelines that were deemed "safe" to open in the first place.

It's really obvious with restaurants. They're only supposed to be at 25%/50% capacity but popular ones are PACKED because it's nearly unenforceable, there's no shortage of selfish consumers excited to go now that it's open, and restaurants have no financial incentive to enforce social distancing because they aren't profitable at low capacities.

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Voxwik posted...

Moderates are the only ones that represent a majority of the country. Bring on ranked choice elections to get these polarized clowns out. Ranked choice means a third party vote isn't a vote for the worse of the two extremes.

I'm actually glad Biden got the nomination. He's far from perfect, but at least he isn't a pie-in-the-sky wish-master that doesn't give a care half the country disagrees with their goals like some on the far left.

I like Bernie. I kind of like Elizabeth Warren. I think AOC is completely unrealistic in her wish list. Any of those three probably would have handed Trump another term because they are probably unelectable to moderates.

Moderate Dems don't care about half the country. They want to rule with absolute power. Well, as they say, elections have consequences.

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Tbqh safely reopening restaurants for dine-in would be really difficult, both because the economics don't work at lowered capacity and because you can't wear a mask while you're eating.

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It's a bizarre thing to see President Trump repeat something that makes sense then go on Twitter rants that contradict what he just said.

The USA is a HUGE country. It's hard to understand just how big it is. A one size fits all approach really doesn't work long term, so yes it has to be based on science and must take regional considerations into effect.

Oddly the website I got this from is trying to show Europe is bigger than you'd think. Yes, I'd expect a bunch of countries combined to be rather large.
https://s23256.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/US-Europe-size-comparison.jpg
https://i.redd.it/re8fjgyrlvl21.png (Includes Canada but also shows Alaska, but matches latitude.)

Did Columbia really put out a study that said half of Covid deaths could have been prevented?

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TheRock1525 posted...

Did Columbia really put out a study that said half of Covid deaths could have been prevented?

Yeah. More actually.

NYT Article on it: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/coronavirus-cases-deaths.html

They estimated that had the US instituted social-distancing measures one week earlier in March, the death count by May 3 would have dropped 55% from the actual count of 65,307 to a projected 29,410. They further said that had said measures been instituted two weeks earlier that 83% of the deaths would have been prevented with a projection of 11,253 deaths by May 3.

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xp1337 posted...

Yeah. More actually.

NYT Article on it: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/coronavirus-cases-deaths.html

They estimated that had the US instituted social-distancing measures one week earlier in March, the death count by May 3 would have dropped 55% from the actual count of 65,307 to a projected 29,410. They further said that had said measures been instituted two weeks earlier that 83% of the deaths would have been prevented with a projection of 11,253 deaths by May 3.

It's a theory for sure.

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I work at a medical university that has been doing data modeling just for the cases in the metroplex. As far as I can tell, their model is very accurate now. While they didn't retroactively model what it would look like if they shut down earlier, they could model what the case numbers would look like if we had shut down any later than we did. And the numbers for one and two week delayed are absolutely ridiculously larger. Delaying 1 week is 4x the amount of cases. Delaying 2 weeks is 18x higher.

And this is in an area that did not have an early spike, mind you. It absolutely stands to reason that if the places hit hardest had shut down even a little bit sooner it would have made an enormous difference.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

I work at a medical university that has been doing data modeling just for the cases in the metroplex. As far as I can tell, their model is very accurate now. While they didn't retroactively model what it would look like if they shut down earlier, they could model what the case numbers would look like if we had shut down any later than we did. And the numbers for one and two week delayed are absolutely ridiculously larger. Delaying 1 week is 4x the amount of cases. Delaying 2 weeks is 18x higher.

And this is in an area that did not have an early spike, mind you. It absolutely stands to reason that if the places hit hardest had shut down even a little bit sooner it would have made an enormous difference.

It's theory. Just like the theory modeling on predicted deaths. The reason why it is likely not very accurate though is because it assumes things. In general, since we never had overwhelmed hospitals systems. Whoever has died would have died eventually. Just may have taken longer to get there.

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Corrik7 posted...

It's theory. Just like the theory modeling on predicted deaths. The reason why it is likely not very accurate though is because it assumes things. In general, since we never had overwhelmed hospitals systems. Whoever has died would have died eventually. Just may have taken longer to get there.

You can actually test these predictive models by applying them to data from a few weeks ago and seeing how closely they match the actual data today. They're accurate to a significant degree. The one I'm specifically talking about was 90% accurate which is very good.

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https://twitter.com/Jo4liberty/status/1264727587244445700

When half the country is under indefinite house arrest because Fauci said so, and the libertarian presidential candidate thinks that "federal civil asset forfeiture" is the issue that is going to get people to care about her.

Face-fucking-palm.

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